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Catcher Position for 2020

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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 29, 2019, 10:59 PM Post
Posts: 5
clancyphile said:
harmony said:
SRB said:
Why would anyone want a catcher who is terrible defensively and whose own team is actively trying to shop him with three years of control left?

I normally don't mind trading defense for offense, but not at catcher on a team with a young, questionable pitching staff.

Seattle needs pitching and can trade from its depth at catcher where this year Tom Murphy posted a 126 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR in only 76 games and utility man Austin Nola, a catcher by trade, posted a 114 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in only 79 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... =&enddate=

Additionally, catcher Cal Raleigh is the seventh-ranked prospect in a healthy Seattle farm system:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sea

Baseball Trade Values approves a trade of Ethan Small and Drew Rasmussen for Omar Narvaez:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16900/

... although the pitching-thin Brewers are unlikely to further deplete their farm system.


I get Narvaez and Tim Beckham for Alex Claudio and Buddy Derby.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16933/

The Mariners want more than Alex Claudio's two years of team control ... but the Brewers can probably bid on Tim Beckham after next week's tender deadline.

Seattle and Milwaukee probably do not match up.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 29, 2019, 11:00 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
I get Narvaez and Tim Beckham for Alex Claudio and Buddy Derby.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16933/

Unless they were going to flip Claudio in another deal, I can’t imagine the Mariners being motivated to move any of their assets for a middle reliever with just two years of control remaining.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 29, 2019, 11:16 PM Post
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Not likely a realistic target for the Brewers, but there appears to be increasing smoke around the idea of the Cubs possibly trading Willson Contreras this offseason. If they do, I will be curious to see what they are able to land for him, and if they seek mostly major league talent or use it as an opportunity to give their farm system a boost. The latter seems a little crazy considering where they are in their current win cycle.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 8:10 AM Post
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harmony said:
Seattle needs pitching and can trade from its depth at catcher where this year Tom Murphy posted a 126 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR in only 76 games and utility man Austin Nola, a catcher by trade, posted a 114 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in only 79 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... =&enddate=

Additionally, catcher Cal Raleigh is the seventh-ranked prospect in a healthy Seattle farm system:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sea

Baseball Trade Values approves a trade of Ethan Small and Drew Rasmussen for Omar Narvaez:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16900/

... although the pitching-thin Brewers are unlikely to further deplete their farm system.


Thanks for the insights! It Seattle expected to try to contend, or are they reloading for 2021 and beyond? Better put, are they looking for MLB-ready arms, or are prospects more ideal?


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 9:03 AM Post
Posts: 1052
Eye Black said:
Not likely a realistic target for the Brewers, but there appears to be increasing smoke around the idea of the Cubs possibly trading Willson Contreras this offseason. If they do, I will be curious to see what they are able to land for him, and if they seek mostly major league talent or use it as an opportunity to give their farm system a boost. The latter seems a little crazy considering where they are in their current win cycle.


Probably getting a lot less than people would expect in return. Fangraphs and baseball Prospectus' versions of WAR have him at 8.3 and 6.3 WAR respectively for his career, due to his horrendous pitch framing. And will start to get expensive. Now if you believe that the electronic strike zone is coming in 2021, then he's suddenly a lot more valuable.


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Online  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 10:05 AM Post
Posts: 4530
Hmm, loaded up a Catcher 2019 ranking. Narvaez had a 17% CS rate. Worse than Vogt while run on about 3times the amount. Grandall beat Pina in that category. 27-25%. A name that pops near the top of the list is Alex Avila who threw out 11 outta 21 attempts. He's been around and takes his share a walks to consiately be above .300OB. 4.2mil last ur for Arz. Avila is a roller coaster OPS in his years. From the looks of it, he'd be my choice if we end up with a beteran Catcher. Even if it came at a 2yr deal. It's not likely over 5mil a yr. And you can trade that. Lefty platoon is also a plus.


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Online  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 10:49 AM Post
Posts: 4530
wntrtxn21 said:
balsamlaker said:
I am going to go with Alex Avila in a platoon with Pina. Up until this year, Pina was a much better hitter against LHP, so a lefty platoon partner makes sense.


Avila is a very low BA (.207) with a high whiff rate (32%). He walked a lot against RH pitching, but the high strikeout rate and very low BA is a problem with a team that already whiffs at an extremely high rate.


Oh and I knew there was a previous Avila mention. 32% k rate does result in a low BA. But Id imagine majority of Catchers are around there. Career he throws out 30% of baserunners. Ive beaten this in the past of Catchers being poor and having a poor one right along with 90% of the league isnt going to cost you too many games.

D'Arnaud I'm pretty sure was a top 3 in Baseball prospect rank. Been a dud. Your also looking at 60-110 games played in arguing on the position.

Varsho from Ariz may not have Abs above AA but the team still has Nottingham to pass the time for some AAA experience.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 11:02 AM Post
Posts: 5
PeaveyFury said:
harmony said:
Seattle needs pitching and can trade from its depth at catcher where this year Tom Murphy posted a 126 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR in only 76 games and utility man Austin Nola, a catcher by trade, posted a 114 wRC+ and 1.5 fWAR in only 79 games:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx? ... =&enddate=

Additionally, catcher Cal Raleigh is the seventh-ranked prospect in a healthy Seattle farm system:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=sea

Baseball Trade Values approves a trade of Ethan Small and Drew Rasmussen for Omar Narvaez:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16900/

... although the pitching-thin Brewers are unlikely to further deplete their farm system.


Thanks for the insights! It Seattle expected to try to contend, or are they reloading for 2021 and beyond? Better put, are they looking for MLB-ready arms, or are prospects more ideal?

The Mariners probably are looking for arms that could be MLB ready by 2021, such as former college powerhouse pitchers Ethan Small, who turns 23 in February, and Drew Rasmussen, who turns 25 in July.


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Online  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 11:02 AM Post
Posts: 792
The more I've thought about this, I'm not sure it really matters who the other catcher is. I'm fine with Martin, Avila, Castro, Romine, and maybe Cervelli but his concussions worry me.

Chirinos is probably the only starting caliber free agent left. His pitch framing grades out poorly so I'm not sure he's a fit with the Brewers. Only a theory, but the Astros may have been willing to deal with his poor framing because of the elite quality of their starting pitching.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 11:33 AM Post
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harmony said:
The Mariners probably are looking for arms that could be MLB ready by 2021, such as former college powerhouse pitchers Ethan Small, who turns 23 in February, and Drew Rasmussen, who turns 25 in July.


Please, please, please, do NOT trade Ethan Small for this guy.

PLEASE?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: November 30, 2019, 11:41 AM Post
Posts: 5
turborickey said:
harmony said:
The Mariners probably are looking for arms that could be MLB ready by 2021, such as former college powerhouse pitchers Ethan Small, who turns 23 in February, and Drew Rasmussen, who turns 25 in July.


Please, please, please, do NOT trade Ethan Small for this guy.

PLEASE?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16900/

Trivia: Back in April Mississippi State starter Ethan Small dropped a decision to Arkansas starter Isaiah Campbell, whom the Seattle Mariners selected with the 76th pick of the June draft:

https://arkansasrazorbacks.com/campbell ... ke-opener/

But, again, Seattle and Milwaukee may not match up in a trade.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: December 05, 2019, 6:01 AM Post
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Well with the Brewers acquisition of Omar Narvaez it’s worth pointing out that you didn’t need to look any further than the first two posts of this thread to know what direction the Brewers would ultimately go. [wink]


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Online  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: December 05, 2019, 6:10 AM Post
Posts: 1433
Location: Central PA
Omar coming?

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/statu ... 1182467072

Seems like a good replacement for Grandal. Looks like he’s controllable for a few years.


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Online  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: December 05, 2019, 7:19 AM Post
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Posts: 10015
harmony said:
turborickey said:
harmony said:
The Mariners probably are looking for arms that could be MLB ready by 2021, such as former college powerhouse pitchers Ethan Small, who turns 23 in February, and Drew Rasmussen, who turns 25 in July.


Please, please, please, do NOT trade Ethan Small for this guy.

PLEASE?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-16900/

Trivia: Back in April Mississippi State starter Ethan Small dropped a decision to Arkansas starter Isaiah Campbell, whom the Seattle Mariners selected with the 76th pick of the June draft:

https://arkansasrazorbacks.com/campbell ... ke-opener/

But, again, Seattle and Milwaukee may not match up in a trade.


I'm gonna be sad if it is Small or Rasmussen going back to Seattle. I may sound naive, but I kinda hope its for multiple 17-year-old lottery tickets. Small and Rasmussen fit our 3-year window.


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Online  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: December 05, 2019, 8:48 AM Post
Posts: 609
ReverendBrewmeister said:
Omar coming?

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/statu ... 1182467072

Seems like a good replacement for Grandal. Looks like he’s controllable for a few years.


Great offense against RH pitching. Terrible defense, one of the absolute worst in MLB. With his bat you have to take the bad with the good.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: December 06, 2019, 12:05 AM Post
Posts: 2396
brewcrewdue80 said:
Hmm, loaded up a Catcher 2019 ranking. Narvaez had a 17% CS rate. Worse than Vogt while run on about 3times the amount. Grandall beat Pina in that category. 27-25%. A name that pops near the top of the list is Alex Avila who threw out 11 outta 21 attempts. He's been around and takes his share a walks to consiately be above .300OB. 4.2mil last ur for Arz. Avila is a roller coaster OPS in his years. From the looks of it, he'd be my choice if we end up with a beteran Catcher. Even if it came at a 2yr deal. It's not likely over 5mil a yr. And you can trade that. Lefty platoon is also a plus.


17% sure is bad. However, so is 27% and 25%. It's not like Grandal was throwing out 83% of base stealers and Narvaez was throwing out 17%.

I really don't care about the difference between 1 in 4 and 1 in 6. It doesn't happen enough to offset the offensive gain.

Let's math this ok.
27 of 100 and 7 of 28.
34 CS to 94 SB
128 attempts. Grandal would CS 35 in 128 attempts. Narvaez would CS 22 in 128 attempts.

We are talking about a 13 out difference in 4,374 outs.

That is 0.3%
It'll impact the team 1 time every 12.5 games.

287/358/790 x 2 Narvaez career vs rhp
271/339/738 x 1 Pina career vs lhp
=
281/351/772 platoon vs
246/380/848 Grandal last year

Is it worse? Sure. Is that 37 million dollars worse over the next 3 years? I'd say no.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: December 06, 2019, 1:01 AM Post
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Well, 1/4 means that the C is close enough to the break even point to prevent guys from running who shouldn't be running. 1/6 means that it's almost guaranteed that good base stealers will run all over him and even many others should take the chance. The chances to throw guys out won't be equal, which furthers the gap even more between good/poor catchers.

SBs are a minor and decreasingly important part of a guys skillset though. At least until every team starts to use more decent hitting poor throwing Cs, at which point more guys will steal bases. It's one of those self correcting balances that make the game of baseball great.


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Offline  Re: Catcher Position for 2020
Posted: December 07, 2019, 3:05 AM Post
Posts: 2396
Still base stealing isn't dropping because catchers are getting a lot better at throwing guys out. It's dropping because teams don't like the risk reward of it. Even if you drop the risk its not going to alter that decision dramatically.


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