Yesterday I was looking up the projected WARs of some players to get an idea of possible trades. Kind of kicking around an idea that would start with Kris Bryant to the Mets (big-name but very little surplus value due to just 1 year of control left), J.D. Davis (and maybe Dominic Smith as well) to the Brewers to fill their holes, and Josh Hader to the Mets with the Cubs and Brewers throwing a whole lot more to the Mets to get this all to work. I was shocked to see that Steamer is only projecting Hader as a 1.0 WAR player in 2021. Personally, I think Hader good for about 6.6 WAR over the next three years, which would put his surplus value in the 30-35 million range. But if MLB teams only project him as a 3 WAR player over the next three years, then his surplus value is probably less than 5 million and the Brewers are only likely to get a couple lottery ticket type prospects for him.

If that is how the market is evaluating Hader, then him being a "hold" is the easiest decision in the history of major league baseball.

I really have a problem with Steamer's number on Hader. If you pro-rate 2020's numbers out for a full year, Hader was only a 1 bWAR/fWAR player. But he was at 2.5 bWAR/fWAR in 2019 and 2.4 bWAR/fWAR in 2018. Meanwhile, you have a guy like J.D. Davis for the Mets. Same numbers for Davis is 0.9 in 2020, 1.7 in 2019 and -0.8 in 2018...Steamer projects him at 2.2 for 2021. I'd be really interested to see how they came up with that number for Davis as it's at a level that he's never come close to in the past.