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Hader trade ideas

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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 01, 2021, 10:01 AM Post
Posts: 1223
Steamer's batter projections can be decent enough, but I'm not at all a fan of their pitching projections. They seem to just straight up regress everyone towards the mean no matter the underlying context. Which is something that, on the whole, gives low deviations since that's usually what happens overall. But it's quite useless for individual projections.

ZiPS is released for every team except the Pirates (Should be any day now), that's what I'd use. PECOTA is good too, but won't be released for a while yet. ZiPS is much higher on Hader.

As for J.D Davis, two things; Firstly Steamer uses fWAR not rWAR. By fWAR he had 2.4 in 453 PAs in 2019, and of course 2020 was just 200-odd PAs for any full time player. If their underlying numbers don't scream "fluke" then a 2 WAR projection with 550 PAs seems very reasonable.

Also, IMO, WAR is a rough way to judge reliever value. That stat unfairly hurts relievers because it doesn't take high leverage innings and situations into account. It downgrades relievers simply because they don't pitch many innings to accumulate counting stats.


I agree that on the whole WAR isn't perfect for relivers. But fWAR takes leverage into account, and I believe WARP does too. And of course it *should* downgrade relievers because they don't pitch many innings, question is just how much.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 01, 2021, 12:28 PM Post
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JosephC said:
I really have a problem with Steamer's number on Hader. If you pro-rate 2020's numbers out for a full year, Hader was only a 1 bWAR/fWAR player. But he was at 2.5 bWAR/fWAR in 2019 and 2.4 bWAR/fWAR in 2018. Meanwhile, you have a guy like J.D. Davis for the Mets. Same numbers for Davis is 0.9 in 2020, 1.7 in 2019 and -0.8 in 2018...Steamer projects him at 2.2 for 2021. I'd be really interested to see how they came up with that number for Davis as it's at a level that he's never come close to in the past.

On the opposite end of the spectrum Davenport projections have Hader at 76.2 IP and a 3.0 WARP for 2021. I’d probably take the under, but it’s a fun projection.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 05, 2021, 8:57 PM Post
Posts: 922
Well another Hader team probably out.... Dodgers re-signed Blake Treinen to 2 yr deal.

Totally fine, just keep Hader.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 05, 2021, 9:48 PM Post
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You see Hader traded within a year and would not be shocked to see Yelich being moved in the future also.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 06, 2021, 10:28 AM Post
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I still think the chances of a Hader trade are unlikely but I wonder if interest in him ramps up once Hand and Hendriks are off the market?


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 06, 2021, 10:39 AM Post
Posts: 36
wibadgers23 said:
I still think the chances of a Hader trade are unlikely but I wonder if interest in him ramps up once Hand and Hendriks are off the market?

That is my opinion too. Not sure it makes that much organizational sense to give up draft capital when you can add a solid reliever through free agency. Once the supply of higher-end relievers are gone, then trading for one is the only option left so that's when teams might shift towards Hader.

The Dodgers further bolstering of their bullpen may trigger a counter move by the Padres as well.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 06, 2021, 10:56 AM Post
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Hader won’t be traded this off-season. With the glut or relief pitchers currently available as free agents. A team could get 70% of Hader’s production without giving up anything besides money. Not to mention the Brewers are going to want premium talent not just lottery tickets in return.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 06, 2021, 11:55 AM Post
Posts: 922
Yea Dodgers wont be acquiring Hader... They have entered the Brad Hand sweepstakes.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 06, 2021, 12:26 PM Post
Posts: 766
BestInTheWorld said:
Yea Dodgers wont be acquiring Hader... They have entered the Brad Hand sweepstakes.


As much as I wanted to pair up with LA on a Hader deal, I also wouldn't be too upset to see them go out and get Hand to go along with their Treinen signing. Having one team eat up a couple of these high end guys, should then just help more teams remain in the market for high-end relief help as the winter goes along. Also, as someone else stated - maybe it forces the Padres to then make a run at Hader?


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 06, 2021, 1:13 PM Post
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madtownhawk said:
BestInTheWorld said:
Yea Dodgers wont be acquiring Hader... They have entered the Brad Hand sweepstakes.


As much as I wanted to pair up with LA on a Hader deal, I also wouldn't be too upset to see them go out and get Hand to go along with their Treinen signing. Having one team eat up a couple of these high end guys, should then just help more teams remain in the market for high-end relief help as the winter goes along. Also, as someone else stated - maybe it forces the Padres to then make a run at Hader?


Padres can just resign Yates... Which they have interest in doing.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 07, 2021, 9:32 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
With all of the recent graduations, it just doesn't seem like the Dodger's system is all that great anymore (and the Brewers won't be getting Lux or Mays in a Hader deal).

There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 07, 2021, 9:54 AM Post
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JosephC said:
With all of the recent graduations, it just doesn't seem like the Dodger's system is all that great anymore (and the Brewers won't be getting Lux or Mays in a Hader deal).

There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).


They can just sign one of the closers available.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 07, 2021, 10:15 AM Post
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You’re right. The Blue Jays could just sign a reliever but what if the Dodgers or Mets or White Sox swoop in and sign them first? I agree, I like the match with Toronto and as you said, they look like they are going to be aggressive.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 07, 2021, 11:03 AM Post
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JosephC said:
There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).


I don't see how the Brewers get any of the players you mentioned from the Blue Jays in a Hader trade.

I think a Hader trade with the Blue Jays looks more like this:

3B Hiraldo
2B Machado
RHP Castro
RHP Kloffenstein


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 09, 2021, 9:30 AM Post
Posts: 106
I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 09, 2021, 1:19 PM Post
Posts: 856
bdpecore said:
I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.


I hope you don't really think the Brewers would be in on any Turner talk, especially if it would blow up the payroll by $12-14M. It would take more than Hader/Pina to get D. Smith. Plus the Mets just signed McCann to a big contract and I doubt that would want another catcher in a trade.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 09, 2021, 1:24 PM Post
Posts: 856
nate82 said:
JosephC said:
There had been the rumors that the Blue Jays may be getting pretty aggressive with player moves. That's a team that I would love to be in the Hader mix. They seem really rich in the prospect tier that would likely be available in a Hader deal (Groshans, Woods Richardson, Manoah, etc).


I don't see how the Brewers get any of the players you mentioned from the Blue Jays in a Hader trade.

I think a Hader trade with the Blue Jays looks more like this:

3B Hiraldo
2B Machado
RHP Castro
RHP Kloffenstein


I hope the Brewers are looking at a lot more than maybes and never will be's in any Hader trade. They have a chance to win the weak NL Central this year, and trading Hader for maybes makes them much worse.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 09, 2021, 1:26 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
bdpecore said:
I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.


I hope you don't really think the Brewers would be in on any Turner talk, especially if it would blow up the payroll by $12-14M. It would take more than Hader/Pina to get D. Smith. Plus the Mets just signed McCann to a big contract and I doubt that would want another catcher in a trade.


You really think a 1B bat is worth that much in this current market? There seems to be a lot of those types of bats out there, and they don't necessarily seem to be very expensive, at least to me. Yes, Smith brings some youth and cheap control years, but "take more than Hader/Pina"? Really?

If that's the case (which I think I disagree with), NO thanks!

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 09, 2021, 11:33 PM Post
Posts: 1960
I wish people would stop talking about the payroll like they know what it will be.... especially in the trade forum.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 09, 2021, 11:59 PM Post
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I think if DS does move Hader the haul will be much less than most think.


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