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Hader trade ideas

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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 10, 2021, 1:25 AM Post
Posts: 106
wntrtxn21 said:
bdpecore said:
I see the Mets as our best trade partner with so many options at the corner IF spots and an owner who is looking to swing for the fences with the Lindor trade. Something like D. Smith and Brett Baty for Hader and one of our catchers (Pina/Nottingham) makes sense for both sides. We can then look to sign a stop gap 3B like Justin Turner (2yrs/$24MM) until Baty is ready to take over.

Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia/Urias is a solid lineup.


I hope you don't really think the Brewers would be in on any Turner talk, especially if it would blow up the payroll by $12-14M. It would take more than Hader/Pina to get D. Smith. Plus the Mets just signed McCann to a big contract and I doubt that would want another catcher in a trade.

Dominic Smith was lucky the NL had a DH last season or he wouldn’t have seen many ABs last season. Relievers are much more valuable than a young 1B unless he’s an elite offensive talent which Smith is not.

We also could still wind up with a payroll around $80-85MM since most of our rotation is still pre-arbitration eligible.

Rotation: Woodruff, Burnes, Houser, Lindblom, Lauer

Bullpen: D. Williams, Peralta, Yardley, Suter, Topa, Rasmussen, Black, Wahl/Feyereisen/Bickford

Lineup: Cain, Yelich, Hiura, Smith, Turner, Garcia, Narvaez, Arcia

Bench: Pina, Vogelbach, Urias, Mathias/Reyes, Taylor, T. Flores/Ray

Add a couple veterans for $2-3MM total and the payroll is still sitting around $81-82MM


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2021, 9:06 AM Post
Posts: 2393
Location: Madison, WI
I had cranked the numbers on Smith a couple weeks ago. Needless to say he's one of the hardest guys to assign numbers to because of playing time, DH or no DH, etc, etc, etc. Pro-rate out 2020 to a full season and he's averaged 1.8 WAR over the last three years. But that number includes a full 2020, which in the grand scheme probably really over-estimates his value. However, there are what would qualify as partial seasons earlier which definitely under-estimates his value when looking at 3 year numbers. He's been credited with 2.85 years of service time (2 years, 146 days) and has only been a 1.9 bWAR player and a 1.6 fWAR player...so looking at those numbers, has really only been a 0.6 WAR player per season during his MLB career. But again, for much of those 2.85 years he was stuck on the bench, and I'd bet 30/30 MLB GMs would project him as being significantly higher than a 0.6 WAR per season player moving forward. This is a guy who has slashed .299/.366/.571/.937 over his last 396 plate appearances.

I ended up projecting him as a 1.8 WAR player per season over the next few years and that number is the midpoint of what he's actually done over the last two seasons and the projections for 2021 (which seem really low to me).

It's worth noting that he is a super two guy so that knocks down his surplus value significantly.

I came up with a surplus value for Smith of 33.2 million. I've projected Hader as a 2.2 WAR player per season over the next three years and also have his surplus value in the 30-35 million range. IMO a straight-up swap of the two would be a pretty fair deal.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 7:14 AM Post
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Per Mark Feinsand:

Mets and Dominic Smith settle at $2.55 million to avoid arbitration, per source.

If the Mets are considering moving Smith in any deals it is probably helpful to now have cost certainty for 2021.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 9:38 AM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 12:32 PM Post
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I have accepted the fact that Hader will not be traded this off season. Maybe at the deadline in July. I just don't see it happening.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 12:38 PM Post
Posts: 22261
nate82 said:
The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.



The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 12:46 PM Post
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turborickey said:
I have accepted the fact that Hader will not be traded this off season. Maybe at the deadline in July. I just don't see it happening.


If that happens, having the makings of a super pen isn't so bad of a fallback, IMO. Hopefully Hader can continue his dominant play.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 1:18 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
adambr2 said:
nate82 said:
The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.



The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.


While true there are other free agents that will cost about the same maybe a little bit more than Hader and not cost the Mets a prospect. If the Mets trade all of their prospects now they won't be able to make a trade during the deadline. If the Mets need bullpen help during the deadline then sure but right now we can safely cross them off the list at this time.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 1:25 PM Post
Posts: 922
adambr2 said:
nate82 said:
The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.



The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.


But how do we know Devin will make a good closer? Not everyone can close, we know what we have in Josh.

Keep Devin/Josh and we'll be tough to beat with a lead in the 8th.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 2:14 PM Post
Posts: 22261
BestInTheWorld said:
adambr2 said:
nate82 said:
The Mets can be removed as a possible trade partner with them supposedly signing Hand.



The Mets haven't signed Hand yet. But I never really get why anyone would exclude Hader as a possible trade target just because they sign someone like Brad Hand. You need a lot more than 1 reliever to fill out a bullpen. You can't be too deep in your bullpen. If we were signing a high end shortstop and then crossing that position off your list, that's a little different. But it's not like Josh Hader isn't important to us because we have Devin Williams.


But how do we know Devin will make a good closer? Not everyone can close, we know what we have in Josh.

Keep Devin/Josh and we'll be tough to beat with a lead in the 8th.


I agree with keeping them and I'm not advocating for Devin to close. My point was that you can't have too much pen help.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 15, 2021, 5:43 PM Post
Posts: 5227
Now that he's signed (surprised!) the rumors can truly begin we have a determined value for this season and project the following 2 seasons.


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