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Hader trade ideas

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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 31, 2021, 10:33 AM Post
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JosephC said:
I'm still firmly in the hold position when it comes to Hader. Would rather wait until mid-season, see how the Brewers are doing, and if they are in the midst of a mediocre season then see what kind of return other teams are willing to offer.

My best guess on if a trade with a rumored club were to happen now-

Rays get-
LHP - Josh Hader

Brewers get-
3B - Mike Brosseau (a complete "non-prospect" who OPS'ed .855 in the minors and so far has OPS'ed .843 in the majors)
RHP - Shane Baz (#86 on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list)
SS - Taylor Walls (#19 on MLB.com's Ray's top 30 prospect list)

-----------------------------------------------------

Padres get-
LHP - Josh Hader

Brewers get-
LHP - Tim Hill (very funky lefty reliever with a 4.18 ERA/3.81 FIP/3.62 xFIP in 103 1/3 MLB innings)
LHP - Ryan Weathers (#5 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list...likely just barely outside of top 100)
RHP - Brayan Medina (#15 on MLB.com's Padres's top 30 prospect list)
RHP - Efrain Contreras (#27 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list)


If those are the offers we’ve been getting for Hader then I can see why he’s still a Brewer. Or maybe I need to re-evaluate my expectations a bit.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 31, 2021, 11:59 AM Post
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wibadgers23 said:
If those are the offers we’ve been getting for Hader then I can see why he’s still a Brewer. Or maybe I need to re-evaluate my expectations a bit.

I think it's probably the latter. I know we all want an amazing return in a Hader trade, but think of it in the context of if the Brewers were in the market for a reliever and bidding for Hader. Do you think there is any chance they would entertain trading players like either Burnes or Hiura to acquire a reliever (no matter how good)?

That Rays trade proposal would be good value for Hader, IMO.

Of course there is a perfectly good argument for just keeping Hader as well. I do agree that teams are likely to be a bit more desperate for a reliever at mid-season, but of course that also assumes the risk that Hader will continue to perform as one of the very best relievers in the game, which is obviously a high bar to stay above.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 31, 2021, 12:01 PM Post
Posts: 909
JosephC said:
I'm still firmly in the hold position when it comes to Hader. Would rather wait until mid-season, see how the Brewers are doing, and if they are in the midst of a mediocre season then see what kind of return other teams are willing to offer.

My best guess on if a trade with a rumored club were to happen now-

Rays get-
LHP - Josh Hader

Brewers get-
3B - Mike Brosseau (a complete "non-prospect" who OPS'ed .855 in the minors and so far has OPS'ed .843 in the majors)
RHP - Shane Baz (#86 on MLB.com's top 100 prospect list)
SS - Taylor Walls (#19 on MLB.com's Ray's top 30 prospect list)

-----------------------------------------------------

Padres get-
LHP - Josh Hader

Brewers get-
LHP - Tim Hill (very funky lefty reliever with a 4.18 ERA/3.81 FIP/3.62 xFIP in 103 1/3 MLB innings)
LHP - Ryan Weathers (#5 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list...likely just barely outside of top 100)
RHP - Brayan Medina (#15 on MLB.com's Padres's top 30 prospect list)
RHP - Efrain Contreras (#27 on MLB.com's Padre's top 30 prospect list)


At least in your Rays proposal the Brewers get some immediate help. In your Padres trade it looks like you'd be giving up on winning. Hader is gone and no help for 2-5 years. IMO the Brewers have to fill 3B or 1B in any Hader trade. Otherwise keep him until the deadline.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 31, 2021, 12:09 PM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
At least in your Rays proposal the Brewers get some immediate help. In your Padres trade it looks like you'd be giving up on winning. Hader is gone and no help for 2-5 years. IMO the Brewers have to fill 3B or 1B in any Hader trade. Otherwise keep him until the deadline.

Agreed, the Rays proposal is much more appealing. I do believe the rumor that the Brewers are looking for both major league talent and prospects in a Hader trade. I like a trade that includes Brosseau, but it could be argued the primary piece in that offer is Walls who is likely to be in the majors this year.

It's also why I still think the Blue Jays make some sense. Rowdy Tellez is probably the most likely "major league piece" you could get from them, but packaged with some of their prospects could be enticing.

The Padres I have a harder time finding a major league piece that makes sense. If they still had Ty France I think he would've been intriguing as a major league component to be added along with prospects, but that ship has obviously sailed.


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 31, 2021, 1:15 PM Post
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Location: Chicago
The fact they haven’t traded Hader by now means almost assuredly he is going to start the year with the Brewers.

The combination of facts: that he is dominant, well-paid and Milwaukee is not going to give him away made a deal unlikely from the get-go


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 31, 2021, 5:04 PM Post
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I’m of the camp that you don’t trade elite talent unless absolutely necessary regardless of position. There’s no pressing need to trade Hader especially if you are trying to contend. I’d keep keep him unless another team comes in and blows us over with an offer that significantly will make our team better in the short and long term.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 31, 2021, 5:05 PM Post
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I'd take that TB trade. Both prospects are 50 FVs per the newly released Fangraphs list. As a comparison, Brewers 2021 list isn't updated yet but the midseason 2020 list only had one 50 FV prospect (Turang). So even if some Brewers prospects get upgraded, those two would be among our best prospects. Baz is a long way away, but Walls had a 135 wRC+ in AA in 2019, so should be mostly MLB ready if he had no major setbacks in 2020. Switch hitting middle infielder, who is on the 40-man, at spots where TB have Brandon Lowe, Willy Adames and the best prospect in baseball; Wander Franco. So probably someone they'd be open to discussing.

Brosseau has had very limited playing time, but has looked good in what he had. Heard good things about his attitude and work rate too (Went undrafted, worked his way onto a WS roster). I think his strikeout rate will hold him back and he won't be the 128 wRC+ hitter he has been so far, but he is at least a clear update based on the current roster even if he's more like a 110 wRC+ type.

I have a lot of faith in the Brewers ability to develop relievers. Meaning that while obviously losing Hader will weaken the bullpen no matter what, I think they'll be able to cope. Given the current roster construction with how weak corner IF looks, I believe Mike Brosseau and $6m salary saved (If spent...) will win the Brewers more games in 2021 than Josh Hader would. If prospects pan out (Or can be flipped again), it just keeps adding.

Like it's not a sexy deal and we'd be hoping for more, but I think it's about on point for what an elite reliever can realistically net for a return. Mind you, I don't actually buy that TB are all that interested. They seem to be similar to the Brewers in that they don't spend money on relievers.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 01, 2021, 8:07 PM Post
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I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 7:51 AM Post
Posts: 192
brewmann04 said:
I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.


With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 9:34 AM Post
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LincolnDD said:
brewmann04 said:
I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.


With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.


I'm not always sure how these 3-team trades work, but just to piggy-back off your thoughts - would these possibly work out:

Brewers get:
Mike Brosseau
Shane Baz
Jonathan India

Rays get:
Josh Hader

Reds get:
Willy Adames

My gut says that the Rays are giving up too much here, and the Reds may need to send a player to the Rays in this deal to make it happen?


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 10:00 AM Post
Posts: 2482
Location: Madison, WI
madtownhawk said:
LincolnDD said:
brewmann04 said:
I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.


With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.


I'm not always sure how these 3-team trades work, but just to piggy-back off your thoughts - would these possibly work out:

Brewers get:
Mike Brosseau
Shane Baz
Jonathan India

Rays get:
Josh Hader

Reds get:
Willy Adames

My gut says that the Rays are giving up too much here, and the Reds may need to send a player to the Rays in this deal to make it happen?


That would be a horrible deal for Tampa Bay. Adames has emerged and looks like a solid 3+ WAR per season player moving forward. So they give up him, a top 100 prospect in Baz and Brosseau and all they get back is Hader? The Reds would make out like bandits on this one.

I have the package going to the Brewers being worth about +42.8 million, and would have Hader's value at about 10 million less than that. If the Brewers threw in Feliciano to the Rays, it would make it even from the Brewer's perspective....about 42/43 million coming to them, about 42/43 million going away from them. Then the Rays would have to get a couple significant pieces from the Reds because that is the really lop-sided aspect of this proposal.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 10:52 AM Post
Posts: 823
OK - I figured I probably didn't have that fair enough for all three sides, which is why I mentioned that the Reds might have to pony up another good player in this deal that would go to the Rays. I just don't know what the Rays needs are to best evaluate who the Reds could send to them that would make this deal more appealing? Also, are the Rays really shopping Adames, or are we just assuming that they might be soon here since they have Wander Franco coming quickly?


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 12:01 PM Post

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Brock42 said:
I’m of the camp that you don’t trade elite talent unless absolutely necessary regardless of position. There’s no pressing need to trade Hader especially if you are trying to contend. I’d keep keep him unless another team comes in and blows us over with an offer that significantly will make our team better in the short and long term.


I agree.


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 12:11 PM Post
Posts: 1437
Location: Washburn, WI
LincolnDD said:
brewmann04 said:
I think they have to get a 3rd base prospect along with a potential Starter.


With recent rumors linking the Reds to Tampa's shortstop Willy Adames, could be a fun three-way deal that sends Hader to Tampa and nets Jonathan India in return. Not sure how keen the Reds would be on dealing him, especially to a division rival. India can also play second, but they're pretty loaded long-term there with Suarez and Moose (and I think Senzel can handle second as well).

Keith Law had India at 88 in his top 100 he released the other day, and said he looked good at the off-site last year after a rough 2019. MLB didn't have him in the top 100, but did have him as the #9 third base prospect.


How about we go after Adames straight up? Just move Hiura to first base and solve that issue and forget about him improving at second, we lock in Adames as the everyday shortstop for the foreseeable future, with Urias sliding over to 2B? After talking that whole situation out, I could really get behind this idea! That would give us a fantastic young core of Adames, Hiura, Urias, and Narvaez to an extent, bring in Justin Turner on a 3 year deal to get him to Milwaukee and we could really have a great offense.

CF Cain
LF Yelich
3B Turner
SS Adames
1B Hiura
C Narvaez
RF Garcia
2B Urias
P

Then go out and sign a lefty 4th outfielder like Jackie Bradley Jr. to get another lefty bat on the roster. I would be quite satisfied with this for an offseason. But what would it cost the Brewers to get Adames?


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 12:23 PM Post
Posts: 1437
Location: Washburn, WI
According to the trade simulator, which I don’t fully agree with, but Adrian Houser and Brice Turang seems about fair for Adames. Throw in Arcia if they want him too. I would do this deal and sign someone like Mike Fiers. And to prove a point of how unreliable that site is, Hader’s current trade value is 15.5 [laughing] So essentially one prospect in the 85-100 range and that’s it. For 3 years of the best reliever in baseball two of the last three seasons.


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 12:31 PM Post
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RollieTime said:
According to the trade simulator, which I don’t fully agree with, but Adrian Houser and Brice Turang seems about fair for Adames. Throw in Arcia if they want him too. I would do this deal and sign someone like Mike Fiers. And to prove a point of how unreliable that site is, Hader’s current trade value is 15.5 [laughing] So essentially one prospect in the 85-100 range and that’s it. For 3 years of the best reliever in baseball two of the last three seasons.


I don't think that is that number is too far off. I would probably expect a prospect in the 50-100 range or an MLB ready player with 4-6 years of control remaining as a headliner then a couple lottery ticket type prospects as a realistic return in a Hader deal.


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 12:48 PM Post
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RollieTime said:
According to the trade simulator, which I don’t fully agree with, but Adrian Houser and Brice Turang seems about fair for Adames. Throw in Arcia if they want him too. I would do this deal and sign someone like Mike Fiers. And to prove a point of how unreliable that site is, Hader’s current trade value is 15.5 [laughing] So essentially one prospect in the 85-100 range and that’s it. For 3 years of the best reliever in baseball two of the last three seasons.


How much more proof do we need that the trade simulator is trash?

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 1:00 PM Post
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I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 1:29 PM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
adambr2 said:
I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.


I mean I would trade Woodruff for 8 Josh Hader’s. Bullpen the entire game [laughing] Good luck against that bullpen! Get on it Stearns!!


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: February 02, 2021, 1:32 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
I mean, I think 15.5 is too low but Hader is not worth as much in trade as we emotionally feel he is worth. You basically have to take his expected value, which is already limited as a reliever, and deduct the expected cost of his remaining years which are not that cheap. Then you have an already depressed reliever market, it is not that surprising to see him valued under 20M.

They also have Burnes at over 70M and Woodruff at almost 120M and no one is complaining about that.


Yeah, you are essentially talking about 6 WAR projected over the next three years for Hader against probably around a 32-33 million outlay in arbitration salaries.

If you use 9 million per WAR, it comes out to around 20 million surplus.
If you use 8 million per WAR, it comes out to around 15 million surplus.

Liam Hendriks just signed for 3/54 & is projected about the same as Hader. That would seem to indicate his surplus value is probably around 20 million-ish or so.


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