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Hader trade ideas

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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 1:50 AM Post
Posts: 5780
adambr2 said:
This risk isn't unique to young pitchers. About the same time Whitley was leading lists, Corey Knebel was one of the game's top closers.



Also, Knebel could very easily be among the games' top closers this year and I'd love to have Whitley in the Brewers farm system, TJ or not.

So while TJ obviously lowers a prospect's immediate value, it's also about 90 pct recovery rate at this point. In fact, many pitchers actually at a tick or two.

College pitchers who are out due to TJ have regularly seen their draft stock fall very little, if at all. Teams are a little more forward-thinking than this when talking about kids in their early 20's.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 10:40 AM Post
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Jim Bowden in today's article for The Athletic discussed the status of the trade discussions in regards to Josh Hader and the Padres.

Bowden said the teams talked, but were not close to a deal. He said the Padres would not part with a package like SS C.J. Abrams and LHP Adrian Morejón (insinuating that was the Brewers request). He said he's been told the talks are dead.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 10:41 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
Bowden said the teams talked, but were not close to a deal. He said the Padres would not part with a package like SS C.J. Abrams and LHP Adrian Morejón (insinuating that was the Brewers request). He said he's been told the talks are dead.


Abrams and Morejon are where I'd start as well, and if that wasn't acceptable to the Padres, I'm not surprised it's dead.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 1:20 PM Post
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I agree if we don't get what he wants move on.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 6:00 PM Post
Posts: 5780
PeaveyFury said:
Eye Black said:
Bowden said the teams talked, but were not close to a deal. He said the Padres would not part with a package like SS C.J. Abrams and LHP Adrian Morejón (insinuating that was the Brewers request). He said he's been told the talks are dead.


Abrams and Morejon are where I'd start as well, and if that wasn't acceptable to the Padres, I'm not surprised it's dead.



Sure...and I can see why the Pads would pass on that deal at this time. I'd think they could make another blockbuster trade with a top 10 prospect who has enormous upside and Morejon.

That seems like a lot for Hader to me. Maybe Abrams and another pitcher with a lower ceiling, but both of them? That seems like the top pieces of a trade they could make in-season for another TOR arm or a middle-of-the-order bat.

If they could get just Abrams for Hader, I'd jump at that.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 8:05 PM Post
Posts: 23023
Abrams PLUS for Hader?

No wonder team employees around the league are saying "don't bother" in reference to trying to trade for Hader.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 8:24 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Abrams PLUS for Hader?

No wonder team employees around the league are saying "don't bother" in reference to trying to trade for Hader.


Conversely, why would the Brewers trade arguably the best relief pitcher in the game for a 20 year old kid who has yet to play more than 3 games above Rookie Ball. Literally he could be the second coming of Mickey Mantle or just as likely fizzle out in AA.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 8:39 PM Post
Posts: 23023
Jopal78! said:
adambr2 said:
Abrams PLUS for Hader?

No wonder team employees around the league are saying "don't bother" in reference to trying to trade for Hader.


Conversely, why would the Brewers trade arguably the best relief pitcher in the game for a 20 year old kid who has yet to play more than 3 games above Rookie Ball. Literally he could be the second coming of Mickey Mantle or just as likely fizzle out in AA.


Because being arguably the best relief pitcher in the game doesn't necessarily correlate to strong trade value. Context is needed. It's been elaborated on why Hader still doesn't necessarily have the strongest trade value (cost in arbitration and existing receiver market, specifically), and it probably explains why Hader is still a Brewer at this time.

As an aside, while there is no sure thing with any player, if you have any belief that a player COULD be the second coming of Mickey Mantle, and he's 20, I sure as heck would trade a reliever for him.


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 8:42 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Jopal78! said:
adambr2 said:
Abrams PLUS for Hader?

No wonder team employees around the league are saying "don't bother" in reference to trying to trade for Hader.


Conversely, why would the Brewers trade arguably the best relief pitcher in the game for a 20 year old kid who has yet to play more than 3 games above Rookie Ball. Literally he could be the second coming of Mickey Mantle or just as likely fizzle out in AA.


Because being arguably the best relief pitcher in the game doesn't necessarily correlate to strong trade value. Context is needed. It's been elaborated on why Hader still doesn't necessarily have the strongest trade value (cost in arbitration and existing receiver market, specifically), and it probably explains why Hader is still a Brewer at this time.


I think Hader is still a Brewer because the Brewers are a contending ballclub that benefits greatly from having one of the best relievers in the game on their roster. I don't think its any more complicated than that. Sure, if a team wanted to offer crazy value for him, the Brewers would have to listen. But a player like him is incredibly valuable to a playoff team like the Brewers, and they have valued him likewise.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 10, 2021, 10:53 PM Post
Posts: 95
Look the bottom line is Hader is still a Brewer because the Brewers have no reason to trade him unless they get more value then he worth to them .what his trade value is to the Brewers is all that matters and if no team meets or exceeds that value then he stays,now maybe that value changes in the next couple of years as he gets more and more expensive ,but for now its pay up or he stays small market teams have to have that kind of mindset,they can't out bid the LA s of the world for free agents so players under there control have to bring max value in trade or they become the next Pittsburgh.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 2:54 AM Post
Posts: 5780
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I think Hader is still a Brewer because the Brewers are a contending ballclub that benefits greatly from having one of the best relievers in the game on their roster. I don't think its any more complicated than that. Sure, if a team wanted to offer crazy value for him, the Brewers would have to listen. But a player like him is incredibly valuable to a playoff team like the Brewers, and they have valued him likewise.



So you don't think it's because they put what seems like a totally unreasonable price tag on him?

Asking for Abrams...that has to tell teams you're not really serious. Asking for Abrams PLUS a young left handed reliever you just gave an 11 million dollar signing bonus to, who throws in the upper 90's and has elite stuff?


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 3:41 AM Post
Posts: 23023
HiAndTight said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I think Hader is still a Brewer because the Brewers are a contending ballclub that benefits greatly from having one of the best relievers in the game on their roster. I don't think its any more complicated than that. Sure, if a team wanted to offer crazy value for him, the Brewers would have to listen. But a player like him is incredibly valuable to a playoff team like the Brewers, and they have valued him likewise.



So you don't think it's because they put what seems like a totally unreasonable price tag on him?

Asking for Abrams...that has to tell teams you're not really serious. Asking for Abrams PLUS a young left handed reliever you just gave an 11 million dollar signing bonus to, who throws in the upper 90's and has elite stuff?


Yeah, I mean I do agree with RRB to the extent that, the Brewers are contenders and could use a weapon like Hader, but I also agree with you that we're not clearly not serious about dealing Hader.

There's nothing wrong with setting a price and sticking to it, but if you do so, do it in the knowledge that there's a near-zero chance your price will be met. Trades have to happen within the borders of the market and in the range of reality for both sides. If this situation was reversed, we certainly wouldn't give up a prospect of that caliber for a relatively expensive reliever, no matter how dominant.

If we truly wouldn't accept Abrams for Hader alone, it's the equivalent of going on Shark Tank but you're not really looking to make a deal. You're not really serious about trading Josh. I can understand aiming high but personally I'd rather just say "We're not motivated to move Josh but we're certainly willing to listen to offers" rather than putting our own offers out there that are really over the top and just waste the time of other GMs.


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 7:12 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
HiAndTight said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I think Hader is still a Brewer because the Brewers are a contending ballclub that benefits greatly from having one of the best relievers in the game on their roster. I don't think its any more complicated than that. Sure, if a team wanted to offer crazy value for him, the Brewers would have to listen. But a player like him is incredibly valuable to a playoff team like the Brewers, and they have valued him likewise.



So you don't think it's because they put what seems like a totally unreasonable price tag on him?

Asking for Abrams...that has to tell teams you're not really serious. Asking for Abrams PLUS a young left handed reliever you just gave an 11 million dollar signing bonus to, who throws in the upper 90's and has elite stuff?


Yeah, I mean I do agree with RRB to the extent that, the Brewers are contenders and could use a weapon like Hader, but I also agree with you that we're not clearly not serious about dealing Hader.

There's nothing wrong with setting a price and sticking to it, but if you do so, do it in the knowledge that there's a near-zero chance your price will be met. Trades have to happen within the borders of the market and in the range of reality for both sides. If this situation was reversed, we certainly wouldn't give up a prospect of that caliber for a relatively expensive reliever, no matter how dominant.

If we truly wouldn't accept Abrams for Hader alone, it's the equivalent of going on Shark Tank but you're not really looking to make a deal. You're not really serious about trading Josh. I can understand aiming high but personally I'd rather just say "We're not motivated to move Josh but we're certainly willing to listen to offers" rather than putting our own offers out there that are really over the top and just waste the time of other GMs.


I mean, every time Stearns has been asked by the media over the last three years about dealing Hader, he's said that Hader is not on the market, they are not looking to deal him, and they consider him a very valuable member of the team. I know a lot of people have chalked that up to typical GM speak, but I think this proves that there is at least an element of truth to it. The Brewers obviously love Hader, they have no intention of dealing him, but if a team wants to throw a ridiculous offer out there, they aren't going to hang up the phone. I HIGHLY doubt that the Brewers were the ones who called the Padres about Hader. I imagine the Padres called, and basically asked "What will it take?" And Stearns answered truthfully. How is that wasting the Padres time? They asked. If they really truly want Hader and value him highly, they'll meet that price. If not, good luck in the NL West.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Online  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 7:18 AM Post
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HiAndTight said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I think Hader is still a Brewer because the Brewers are a contending ballclub that benefits greatly from having one of the best relievers in the game on their roster. I don't think its any more complicated than that. Sure, if a team wanted to offer crazy value for him, the Brewers would have to listen. But a player like him is incredibly valuable to a playoff team like the Brewers, and they have valued him likewise.



So you don't think it's because they put what seems like a totally unreasonable price tag on him?

Asking for Abrams...that has to tell teams you're not really serious. Asking for Abrams PLUS a young left handed reliever you just gave an 11 million dollar signing bonus to, who throws in the upper 90's and has elite stuff?


They put the price tag on him that THEY'VE deemed appropriate to get him, because of the value he brings to their team. Why would a team with contending aspirations trade away one of the top relievers in the game without getting crazy value back? The Brewers are far from being in a situation where they have to trade him. Just because talking heads or some other teams don't seem to value high-leverage relievers, it doesn't mean that the Brewers need to fall in line with that.


Last edited by Ron Robinson's Beard on March 11, 2021, 1:27 PM, edited 1 time in total.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 1:24 PM Post
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Location: Chicago
Every player on every team is available, for the right price. I think Milwaukee's General Manager's comments are congruent with that thought. As others have stated, the Brewers are trying to win now, trading Hader makes it more difficult for them to win now. Moreover, trading players from their major league roster for players who won't help the Brewers win for multiple seasons down the road is counter productive to what they are trying to do. As such, the "right price" for Hader should be, and by all accounts is, very high.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 1:44 PM Post
Posts: 23023
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
HiAndTight said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I think Hader is still a Brewer because the Brewers are a contending ballclub that benefits greatly from having one of the best relievers in the game on their roster. I don't think its any more complicated than that. Sure, if a team wanted to offer crazy value for him, the Brewers would have to listen. But a player like him is incredibly valuable to a playoff team like the Brewers, and they have valued him likewise.



So you don't think it's because they put what seems like a totally unreasonable price tag on him?

Asking for Abrams...that has to tell teams you're not really serious. Asking for Abrams PLUS a young left handed reliever you just gave an 11 million dollar signing bonus to, who throws in the upper 90's and has elite stuff?


They put the price tag on him that THEY'VE deemed appropriate to get him, because of the value he brings to their team. Why would a team with contending aspirations trade away one of the top relievers in the game without getting crazy value back? The Brewers are far from being in a situation where they have to trade him. Just because talking heads or some other teams don't seem to value high-leverage relievers, it doesn't mean that the Brewers need to fall in line with that.


I haven't heard any talking heads saying Hader shouldn't be valued. I don't think that really has anything to do with it. I do think that they're in a different situation than they would be if they didn't expect to contend, where they aren't motivated to trade Hader.

I'm totally OK with them not trading Hader, I just don't think they appear to have ever really been interested in doing so. I think maybe other teams just kind of assumed that we would for some reason.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 4:09 PM Post
Posts: 141
Zack Britton To Undergo Arthroscopic Elbow Surgery: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/03/ ... elbow.html


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 5:00 PM Post
Posts: 23023
If the Yankees want Hader, I want Jasson Dominguez. Stop insisting on MLB ready talent and focus on ceiling. This guy could be a franchise cornerstone.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 5:39 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
If the Yankees want Hader, I want Jasson Dominguez. Stop insisting on MLB ready talent and focus on ceiling. This guy could be a franchise cornerstone.

I totally agree. Just get good players - whether ready now or next your or three years down the road. I know it's tempting to want guys who are close to contributing - but this is often the chance to get an impact player.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: March 11, 2021, 5:57 PM Post
Posts: 2501
Location: Madison, WI
I would make the definitive statement that there should be things other than surplus value calculations that play into trade. However, I would also make the argument that even the smartest of MLB GMs would be completely foolish to ignore the surplus value numbers.

If I were San Diego's GM, I would not give the slightest consideration in trading Abrams for Hader straight-up because the numbers say it makes absolutely no sense to do so. Abrams average ranking on the Baseball America/Keith Law/MLB Pipeline top 100 lists is #13. On my board that would put his prospect surplus value at 80.9 million. I have Hader in the range of 30-35 million. Now if I were San Diego's GM and knew something about Abrams and thought that his real value should put him at about #60 on the top 100 list, then the trade would make sense numbers-wise.

On the flip-side, Morejon plus a couple solid role-player prospects and a lottery ticket as player #4 would probably be a pretty fair deal. Morejon's stock has fallen, but outside of what sure looks like a really fluke-ish 38.9% HR/FB, the stat sheet from 2020 looks pretty solid. Not crazy to think that five years of him alone could be as valuable as 3 years of Hader, and Morejon threw four different pitches at least 11.8% of the time which tells me that starting rotation still figures into his future.


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