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Hader trade ideas

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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 11, 2020, 3:37 PM Post
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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 11, 2020, 4:59 PM Post
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baumer16 said:

Let me ask you this, I would assume we both agree that Stearns is a really smart guy correct? Well why do you think he's willing to trade Hader and not say Yelich or Hiura? Why are we hearing all these rumors about Hader when if we really want to score a massive deal we would get more for either of those other two. Cause they're not available. Cause everyday stars are far more valuable than a reliever who pitches one pitch 95% of the time and averages less than 1 inning every other day. Like I said all stars are not created equal. And this one for one probably isn't happening cause from what's being said Stearns wants a haul. Unless it was for someone like Cory Seagar who I don't know how long he's under contract for but even he would make us better if we had him over Hader.


His FB avg is 95.6MPH But he only throws it 84% of the time in '19 and that was 79% in '18 Something I attribute to Grandal's receiving skills. Pina caught 15innings for Hader to a tune of .54ERA For Grandal it was 3.17. I'd love to see graphs somewhere and pitch types to the catcher pitched too. Cant's find any currently. I am close to checking the ERAs of the pitchers for 2019 with which catcher. Just the investing time in doing so I'm on the fence doing so.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 12, 2020, 2:18 AM Post
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baumer16 said:
TJseven7 said:
baumer16 said:
Again completely disagree.

That's covering a lot of sins and you don't fix that with a bat because a bat can't end a game whenever an advantage is in place

So by that logic Hader is more valuable then say Mike Trout, Mookie Betts cause he can end a game and they can't? Thats absolutely ridiculous.

Let me ask you this, I would assume we both agree that Stearns is a really smart guy correct? Well why do you think he's willing to trade Hader and not say Yelich or Hiura? Why are we hearing all these rumors about Hader when if we really want to score a massive deal we would get more for either of those other two. Cause they're not available. Cause everyday stars are far more valuable than a reliever who pitches one pitch 95% of the time and averages less than 1 inning every other day. Like I said all stars are not created equal. And this one for one probably isn't happening cause from what's being said Stearns wants a haul. Unless it was for someone like Cory Seagar who I don't know how long he's under contract for but even he would make us better if we had him over Hader.


First off Trout is locked in until 38 at 35-36 million dollars a year. He's THE player but the value there is pretty well paid for in full. I mean what do you think his worth is 40 mil per, 50 mil per? You have to put his value pretty high to make him a valuable contract. Hader's underpaid and looking to a guy in years 35-38 is murky so negative value could swing back on the gains Trout makes in the present. Hader doesn't get there. Betts is also in that same territory so I don't see those as good examples.

If you are asking if Trout make a bigger impact than Hader. Yes, significantly. He's the best player in baseball. (He's better than Yelich but I certainly wouldn't trade Yelich for Trout due to their contract value.) I'm saying that any player who is considered equal trade value to Hader on the field will not make the same impact as Hader. I'm saying that the SP prospect you get for Hader is going to effect the team era less than Hader and in a lower leverage position.

Trade value for Hader will not match his worth or impact. If you get fair, you lose the deal. If you get a significant gain in value you'll likely still lose the deal. You need something bordering on stupid for the price to be worth considering.

I believe the DS is willing to trade Hader rumors are cannon fodder. I don't think he's even considering it. I think we got a heck of a player and the media of other teams want him so they are making garbage up. Oh the Brewers are poor they can't afford his arby increasing, better be the lowly team that you are and sell him off to a real contender. That garbage. DS kicks every tire and turns over every stone. He's not dealing Hader, but he's smart enough to listen to people talk because the more they talk the more information they give up.

Basically, we got the hot GF and everyone's looking. They might talk, they might try, it ain't happening. People talk, trolls troll, reporters chase and rumors about nothing pop up. He's tied to Yelich Hiura and Woodruff.

"Cause everyday stars are far more valuable than a reliever who pitches one pitch 95% of the time and averages less than 1 inning every other day."
Now I get it. You expect him to fail. Ok.

As for Cory Seager 2 years Arby 2 and 3. Pass.


I don’t expect him to fail. But with a position that is historically as volatile as RP you better damn sure believe the Brewers have thought about it. So along with that, and just the overall value of a RP is probably why Stearns has floated the idea of trading him to upgrade other positions. And it’s not just a media made up frenzy. Cause if the media really wanted to make something up to get attention they can just have Heyman tweet,”Brewers willing to trade Yelich.” And just watch the baseball media world explode on twitter and various sites. I would imagine this site would have a 6 page thread on it within an hour.

And saying that no matter who you trade Hader for it won’t match Haders value is so completely ridiculous it’s not worth responding to.


Bad writers chasing fake Yankee rumors made up by junior college kids is not proof he's actually being shopped.
"Rosenthal argues it’s simply the nature of being a low payroll organization; the front office can never afford to completely shut itself out from any opportunity."
That's called prospecting. Look for something within a degree of plausibility and put a flashy headline on it.
"While Stearns didn’t deny the report or dismiss the idea of a Hader deal, he naturally didn’t give any hint about how much desire his club actually had in moving Hader, only saying that “I think we consider him the best reliever in baseball right now.”''
That's a brush off.

Rosenthal speculating because the Brewers are a poor team, and DS not telling him off is the proof this is a thing? That's not proof of anything. That's click bait and DS didn't blast him for it. His only comment was to brush it off with "best reliever in baseball." Let's open up 47 pages of trade ideas cuz Rosenthal's saying there's a chance!

RP is not a historically volatile position. Mediocre RPs are consistently volatile. Elite RPs regularly dominate for 5-6 year windows if not more. He's one of those.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 12, 2020, 10:02 AM Post
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TJseven7 said:
"Rosenthal argues it’s simply the nature of being a low payroll organization; the front office can never afford to completely shut itself out from any opportunity."
That's called prospecting. Look for something within a degree of plausibility and put a flashy headline on it.
"While Stearns didn’t deny the report or dismiss the idea of a Hader deal, he naturally didn’t give any hint about how much desire his club actually had in moving Hader, only saying that “I think we consider him the best reliever in baseball right now.”''
That's a brush off.

Rosenthal speculating because the Brewers are a poor team, and DS not telling him off is the proof this is a thing? That's not proof of anything. That's click bait and DS didn't blast him for it. His only comment was to brush it off with "best reliever in baseball." Let's open up 47 pages of trade ideas cuz Rosenthal's saying there's a chance!

RP is not a historically volatile position. Mediocre RPs are consistently volatile. Elite RPs regularly dominate for 5-6 year windows if not more. He's one of those.


I don't think anyone disputes that Josh Hader is an elite relief pitcher. We've seen what he has done since he came up in 2017, and his talent is undeniable. He's probably been the difference in 10 games a season over the last two years.

The problem is that his elite performance will soon come with a high price tag and at some point, the salary he will command for that elite performance will cost the Brewers more than just money. The question is, what do we do as that salary climbs? Do we wait until the salary gets so high that the return in a trade is diminished, or do we move him with a little more control and cheaper, to get that better return?

Yeah, we could pay him $15 million, but if that means he secures wins 71-80, or even to secure wins 76-85 on a season, is it really the best use of the financial resources of the Milwaukee Brewers? I would argue in those cases, the $15 million is poorly spent.

You could argue that the 2019 playoff Brewers came about because Milwaukee traded a player at the right time: The Carlos Gomez trade brought Hader and Houser, both key members of the pitching staff, it brought Brinson, who was the centerpiece of the Yelich trade, and it brought Maverick Phillips, who was arguably the centerpiece of the Moustakas trade.

This is what Milwaukee will have to confront, barring some super-mega billionaire buying the team from Mark Attanasio.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 12, 2020, 10:58 AM Post
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Thinking about the Arbitration, there probably lies the timeline on when a deal may/would happen trading Hader. So after mid-Feb the salary projections for Hader will be known and what value he has moving forward. 4.1 vs 6.4mil yr 1 arb. What does that look like year 2? 7.5-11.8?

So what Im getting at is 1 more month boys&girls and when that salary number for year1 comes out, watch the trade rumors really take off.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 12, 2020, 11:06 AM Post
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This thread got me thinking about how to value an elite reliever vs a position player(s). This was an interesting bit from a Fangraphs article about the Chapman trade from 2016 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/valuing-relievers-correction-or-bubble/:

By our current valuation methods, the game’s elite relievers are worth about +2 WAR in the regular season, but as Sullivan showed, teams with those kinds of elite relief performances generally win about 1.7 games more than we’d expect, so you could argue that perhaps these guys are worth closer to +4 WAR, if the team’s clutch performance was solely due to having a great reliever.

Obviously this does not take into account the contract of the reliever or years of control which is a HUGE deal when evaluating a trade. Also positional performance volatility has to be taken into account and relievers tend to be a volatile group. Digging a littler further I found this from a Forbes article https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2019/11/21/the-brewers-should-at-least-entertain-trade-offers-for-josh-hader-this-off-season/#4709ed375bda

Hader is under team control for four arbitration seasons, and will earn over $30M over that span if he remains healthy and effective. If he pitches at his 2019 level, he could deliver as much as $80M in value over that span, for a total of $50M excess value. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

That’s the potential reward. The risk, however, is immense. One would think that $50M in excess contract value would land Hader on Fangraphs’ annual Top 50 Trade Value list. He only made the Honorable Mentions, however.

Reliever performance, as you might surmise, is extremely volatile. Hader ranked 3rd in reliever WAR in both 2018 and 2019. Going back to 2017, he is the only reliever to repeat among the top five. That’s right - there are 14 different relievers among the 15 top relief performances over the last three seasons.


I put this all out there not to suggest the Brewers should trade Hader but more to see if we can come to some kind of consensus (good luck) on value.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 12, 2020, 11:56 AM Post
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homer said:
This thread got me thinking about how to value an elite reliever vs a position player(s). This was an interesting bit from a Fangraphs article about the Chapman trade from 2016 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/valuing-relievers-correction-or-bubble/:

By our current valuation methods, the game’s elite relievers are worth about +2 WAR in the regular season, but as Sullivan showed, teams with those kinds of elite relief performances generally win about 1.7 games more than we’d expect, so you could argue that perhaps these guys are worth closer to +4 WAR, if the team’s clutch performance was solely due to having a great reliever.

Obviously this does not take into account the contract of the reliever or years of control which is a HUGE deal when evaluating a trade. Also positional performance volatility has to be taken into account and relievers tend to be a volatile group. Digging a littler further I found this from a Forbes article https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2019/11/21/the-brewers-should-at-least-entertain-trade-offers-for-josh-hader-this-off-season/#4709ed375bda

Hader is under team control for four arbitration seasons, and will earn over $30M over that span if he remains healthy and effective. If he pitches at his 2019 level, he could deliver as much as $80M in value over that span, for a total of $50M excess value. That’s nothing to sneeze at.

That’s the potential reward. The risk, however, is immense. One would think that $50M in excess contract value would land Hader on Fangraphs’ annual Top 50 Trade Value list. He only made the Honorable Mentions, however.

Reliever performance, as you might surmise, is extremely volatile. Hader ranked 3rd in reliever WAR in both 2018 and 2019. Going back to 2017, he is the only reliever to repeat among the top five. That’s right - there are 14 different relievers among the 15 top relief performances over the last three seasons.


I put this all out there not to suggest the Brewers should trade Hader but more to see if we can come to some kind of consensus (good luck) on value.


I think Hader's value to the Brewers is immense right now, and remains so through the 2021 season. I would not deal him through the 2020 season unless someone backed up the truck. This is the year to not just stick with Hader, but to see how the Brewers farm system's best relief prospects (Rasmussen, Andrews, and QTC) shake out along with the next tier (Barker, Perdomo, Olczak). If the top relief prospects force their way to the majors - so much the better.

In 2022 and 2023, the Brewers will be paying Hader a lot of money for elite performance... and that will come with costs not seen on a balance sheet - it will be opportunity costs. Losing out on free agent X - seeing player Y walk. Furthermore, the return will not be as great. I think Forbes is off on the salary - four years of arby means a total price tag of $45-50 million, not $30 million - and as such, the 2021-2022 offseason is the last chance to really get good trade value for Hader.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 12, 2020, 9:30 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
and as such, the 2021-2022 offseason is the last chance to really get good trade value for Hader.


I'd expect big payroll playoff teams to compete for him even in arby year 3 and 4. Teams chased Miller and chased Chapman (HARD) and if Hader puts up his 4th and 5th year of dominance the Papelbon Arby record won't be the only one he breaks.

I won't agree on the same names but the farm will be huge in the decision to eventually deal Hader. I don't see it happening before arby 4 offseason unless the farm can churn out some big time pen firemen. Peralta (if he gets a legitimate 2nd pitch) Brown (if starter flames out for him) Rasmussen and Kelly could all be of the type that makes Hader acceptably expendable.

I'd cuff Yelich Hader Hiura and Woodruff. That's the core for the next 3 years you ride while the window is open.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 12:25 PM Post
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All this discussion re: Hader is fun, if for no other reason than that he's one of 2-4 players (Yelich for sure, possibly Hiura & Woodruff) who might net a very significant return in a trade.

But I keep coming back to this:

Most of the Hader discussion on a national level over the past 1+ month is rooted in a single Ken Rosenthal tweet that the Brewers were listening on Josh Hader. He followed that, as I recall, with a little speculative commentary. Others have heard that, spun it, ran with it, whatever -- basically made it into a much bigger story than it was. But it all started with "The Brewers are listening on Josh Hader" -- and that's it.

There's a huge difference between "listening on" and "shopping." Rosenthal said "listening on Hader." Others turned it into "shopping Hader," which was not the report.

Haudricourt, among others (mainly local writers), noted that Stearns said that over the course of a winter, it's normal that they get calls on pretty much everyone on their roster. In other words, it seems very true that, technically, Stearns actually listens on everyone. All that indicates, though, is that other teams are interested in Brewers players, not that Stearns is looking to move them.

Funny but somewhat expected how Rosenthal's tweet has created such a buzz. It's too bad, though, that others didn't see or heed the locally reported & factual 2nd part, which would've created a way different context.


Last edited by MNBrew on January 13, 2020, 12:27 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 12:26 PM Post
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I think DS will listen to all offers and would have to be blown away to move Hader IMO.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 12:28 PM Post
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brewmann04 said:
I think DS will listen to all offers and would have to be blown away to move Hader IMO.

Right. You listen in case you hear something that blows you away. Lacking that, I'd think most of those sorts of inquiries die on the vine pretty quickly.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 12:44 PM Post
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With 4 years of team control left, LHP Josh Hader is one of the most valuable commodities in baseball.

I disagree that he's not as valuable as an above average everyday player.

Also, if you are a contending team that is already likely to make the playoffs come the end of July, is there any more valuable player that you could add to your team (bullpen) then Josh Hader The Dominator?

Short answer: No there is not.

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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 12:46 PM Post
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Here's the biggest issue as I see it: we are in a "win-now" window for our franchise, and it just seems a bit ludicrous to think that we are going to then trade away one of our biggest assets that has helped us win these past couple of years. Now, if we had guys that we thought were suitable replacements in the back of our pen - then I would be all-in on trying to trade Hader this winter and at least attempting to get a nice haul of players in return. But, let's say we trade Hader tomorrow: who's going to shut down games this season in the last 2-3 innings? JJ is long gone, Knebel is coming back from TJ surgery - so we have no idea what he's going to look like, and we also know that DS is never going to go out and spend a ton of money on relievers in the FA market.

I've been 50/50 on this whole trade Hader talk this winter, but the more time goes along here (and the FA market dwindles), the more I think we are definitely going to be holding onto Hader for at least another year (or maybe even just a 1/2 year if we are sellers at the deadline in July).


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 1:25 PM Post
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Dodgers when are they going to call? They signed Alex Wood( Jimmy Nelson too) soooo, Dustin May what's your role looking like heading in to 2020? Certainly a bit more cloudy than prior to these two signings. He's also got the Hader look with the hair, so maybe fans can squint and ignore the RH pitching motion and still think Hader was on the mound. [wink]

That is something to ponder on. Walker Buehler, Kershaw, Maeda, Julio Urias, Alex Wood? Dustin May/Tony Gonsolin. Jimmy Nelson, and not far is Josiah Gray. Oh missed one, Ross Stripling.

They have control on all those pitchers for 2 seasons(Kershaw) with Wood being a 1yr incentive contract. They can clearly part with a May and replace with a stud RP in Hader. Considering they have depth in the minors to fill a rotation this year and beyond. You get in to the Dodgers payroll and in starting 2022, their largest commitment is 13mil to AJ Pollock. Yep one contract at 13mil for the LA Dodgers 2 years from now.

Brewers actually have more committed than LA currently in 2022.
So fitting Hader's Super 2 Arb contract will not be a thing year 3 or 4 to them.
Obviously I want more, just stating are the Dodgers going to continue running prospects moving forward? or Use a few for a proven team controlled MLB player? Or are they going to run a payroll below 100mil come 2022 with a team built on prospects?

When's the last time they won the WS? Be a shame to not win one with Kershaw all those years?


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 3:05 PM Post
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brewtank34 said:
Could use any...and I mean any..insider nuggets right about now calming the storm inside me that there is indeed a significant move in our near future that will make this years squad legit.

I have heard that the Brewers are very wary of adding contracts beyond the current CBA (which runs through 2021). It doesn't mean we won't add someone beyond 2 years - but it's unlikely.

This is very fringy information (know someone who knows someone type of stuff) - so don't take it as gospel. It does, however, gel with how this off season has been going with regards to roster construction.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 4:13 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
brewtank34 said:
Could use any...and I mean any..insider nuggets right about now calming the storm inside me that there is indeed a significant move in our near future that will make this years squad legit.

I have heard that the Brewers are very wary of adding contracts beyond the current CBA (which runs through 2021). It doesn't mean we won't add someone beyond 2 years - but it's unlikely.

This is very fringy information (know someone who knows someone type of stuff) - so don't take it as gospel. It does, however, gel with how this off season has been going with regards to roster construction.

They must think some drastic changes are bound to happen


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 4:30 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
brewtank34 said:
Could use any...and I mean any..insider nuggets right about now calming the storm inside me that there is indeed a significant move in our near future that will make this years squad legit.

I have heard that the Brewers are very wary of adding contracts beyond the current CBA (which runs through 2021). It doesn't mean we won't add someone beyond 2 years - but it's unlikely.

This is very fringy information (know someone who knows someone type of stuff) - so don't take it as gospel. It does, however, gel with how this off season has been going with regards to roster construction.

Coming from an ignorant perspective, what changes could be made to the CBA that would dictate not wanting contracts to leak out into the new contract?


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 5:37 PM Post
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Decrease in revenue sharing dropping their ability to spend. Doing away with fully guaranteed contracts as the current ones would surely be grandfathered in as fully guaranteed. Those are plausible options. Even stiffer penalties on the lux tax violators which could freeze big money spending for a short window of time and deflate the market. That could open a 1-2 year window where available cash is king.

Most CBAs amount to nothing. Every once and a while there is a major shift that comes with them. The Bucks missed the boat on it when the NBA had one. A new TV deal was coming a CBA was hitting and the cap was projected to explode. The years leading up to the CBA were a time to extend deals and buy beyond your means because as soon as that new deal hit, teams were flush with money and the FA class couldn't support the money available. Some terrible deals were paid out that off season because teams had money to spend and tried to get as better as they could get with the scraps available.

If this rumor has any truth, and MKE is positioning themselves then they see some sort of angle opening up with what they project likely to happen with this CBA. The fact that they are looking down the road and positioning themselves shows how smart this FO really is. Again, assuming its true.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 8:06 PM Post
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Hader just blew his last two saves and seven in all for 2020. He wasn't that far away from being pulled from the 9th inning- the best reliever in baseball.


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Offline  Re: Hader trade ideas
Posted: January 13, 2020, 9:51 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
Hader just blew his last two saves and seven in all for 2020. He wasn't that far away from being pulled from the 9th inning- the best reliever in baseball.


From 2017-19 Hader ranked 1st in rWAR, 2nd in fWAR & 2nd in Win Probability Added among all relievers. Felipe Vazquez beat him in fWAR & WPA, but I don't think he'll be pitching in MLB next year or any time soon.

Hader also currently has the highest 2020 WAR projection among relievers...

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.a ... 0&sort=5,a

Who do you think is better?


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