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Nick Castellanos

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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 26, 2020, 8:17 PM Post
Posts: 1139
Location: Washburn, WI
reillymcshane said:
RollieTime said:
If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.

Even with Castellanos, the Reds are a bit of a crap shoot. They have a lot of slightly odd parts that may or may not work.

The defense doesn't look very good. Moose at 2B. Senzel in CF. Where does Castellanos play? It might all gel just fine - but then again, it might not.

The club needs a couple of guys to rebound, including Joey Votto and Raisel Iglesias. I love Votto, but he really was not good last year. Was that a fluke? We will find out.

Also, the club needs guys like Senzel and Winker to emerge as first-tier starters. They are good, young hitters with a ton of promise and tools, but they still have to end up producing. And what is Aristides Aquino? I personally think his start last year was a fluke, but we shall see.

The rotation is really nice, but relief pitching is just okay (if Raisel Iglesias rebounds that's a huge deal). They lack depth here (but have a few nice guys at the back end - which is good to have).

I don't think the Reds have any big prospects on the horizon, but I could be wrong on that.

All in all, it's like I said, kind of an odd bag of stuff. They need a little luck, but could be very good (of course, a lot of teams can say that). Their rotation is really good, and a core of Votto, Suarez, Castellanos, Moose, Senzel, etc. is pretty good.

Should be an interesting year.


I would say the Brewers are even in a worse position than the Reds are.

We brought in a rotation arm in Anderson who has hit 100 IP 2 times his last 10 years and Lindblom who is coming back from the KBO and struggled mightily in his small MLB sample. He is a complete wild card.

Our new shortstop (Urias) would be playing at a position that might not be his ideal position. But with his now wrist injury, we will be pivoting to... the worst hitter in the MLB the last two years who might need to play significant time again??

So we could look at a mostly everyday infield of Smoak (average defender, career .230 hitter) or Braun at a new position, Hiura (poor defender), Sogard or Arcia at SS (yikes), and Gyorko. Not to mention arguably the worst defensive catcher in the game to round it out.

You mentioned Votto needing to rebound, but I would say if he maintained what he did last year, which was still a .350+ OBP, slot him in the leadoff spot and you have guys like Castellanos, Moustakas, Suarez, Aquino, and Winker among others following him in the lineup, they are going to score a lot of runs. Votto is still better than what we have for 1B. And they definitely have the edge at 3B and SS if Arcia is what we are relying on. Moose isn’t exactly a bad 2B option either even if he struggles there defensively. But you know you’re getting a 30 homer middle of the order bat out of him.

Looking at the rosters, I would honestly say the Brewers have much more of a wild card roster than the Reds. And it’s not particularly close.

The modge podge of Smoak, moving Braun to a new position, needing a rebound from Cain, can Anderson stay healthy, will Lindblom’s KBO success carry over, will Hiura regress some offensively, needing a Gyorko rebound, is 2019 Sogard legit, can Narvaez learn to play defense, will Yelich come back healthy, can Arcia learn to hit a baseball, will Lauer take a step forward, is Burnes going to rebound, can Peralta learn how to effectively throw anything other than a fastball, is much much worse than trying to figure out how to get all your good hitters in the lineup like the Reds might struggle to do.

And then we have arguably the worst minor league system in the game.

I’m not saying the Brewers won’t be competitive, because I think they can be. Losing Urias is a big blow in that I feel like he was poised to have a coming out party of sorts this season and solidify himself as our everyday SS of the future, but with his health in jeopardy, knowing that we are looking at Sogard or Arcia and Gyorko as EVERYDAY guys, with a .230 career hitter at 1B, a low power CF that NEEDS to rebound, and the pitcher all in the lineup at once, this lineup could have serious issues scoring runs.

I know this makes me sound extremely pessimistic, which I am not because I am sure that some of these moves will pay off. But a lot will need to go right for this team to win something like 90-92 games to compete for the division.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 26, 2020, 8:49 PM Post
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Posts: 2798
RollieTime said:
But a lot will need to go right for this team to win something like 90-92 games to compete for the division.


Last year the Cardinals took the division with 91 wins. What have they done to improve?

Last year we won 89 games for a Wild Card. I'd imagine most posters would take the under on that win total for 2020.

Last year the Cubs won 84 games. I can't recall any notable improvements they've made this winter.

The Reds have been active, but they won 75 games last year. That's a lot of ground to make up.

There have been 80 playoff teams in the two wild card era, 11 of those teams (about 14%) won 75 or fewer games in the season prior to their postseason berth.

From the look of things now I don't think there is a 90 win team in the division & if someome does get there, a lot will inevitably have gone right.


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Online  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 26, 2020, 8:59 PM Post
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Posts: 374
RollieTime said:
If the Reds pull this off, it would be extremely hard to not pick them as the favorite to win the central. They would arguably have the best starting staff and starting lineup in the division. Having the best team on paper doesn’t automatically result to wins in the regular season, but they certainly have a strong looking team heading into the 2020 season.


Nah, it's easy. Sure, they would certainly have the talent on paper to win the central. But ... that team continues to be a pile of mismatched trash until it proves it isn't. And I love Castellanos and I think he's primed for a Yelich-like break-out. It would seriously suck if he does it in a Reds uniform, and especially so making a salary that would be palatable to the Brewers.

The Reds have been active, but it's a weird group of players. Bauer got smacked around pretty good following the trade last year. Moose should be fine, but I think he's a guy that's been overrated by our fanbase a good bit. Most of their hitters, other than Votto, had career years last year are are primed for a negative regression.

They've certainly been active for the first time in a while, but time will tell if the "name" guys they picked up pay off. It will be a nice case study, as the Reds took an avenue of player acquisition that I think a lot of Brewer fans would like to see their team do, i.e. grab a bunch of easily recognizable names. The Brewers are doing things a much different way. It'll be fun to see which way is more successful.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 26, 2020, 11:29 PM Post
Posts: 20212
Sorry, I'm not seeing it with the Reds.

They made some nice supplementary additions (assuming they add Castellanos too), but too many are looking at their additions from a dollar amount perspective rather than what these guys really are for their career. Moose and Castellanos are nice guys to have in your lineup. They aren't guys you build your lineup around.

Blind test, the following five guys have a career OPS+ of 113, 101, 104, 104 and 104. Who are they?

In that order, Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas, Justin Smoak, Avasail Garcia, Ryon Healy.

So what's the big deal with the first two guys other than name? They're surely not being signed for defense, at least certainly not if Moose is going to play 2nd.

They may have one of the worst defenses in baseball. Their rotation should be solid, but that was true last year. I think they may see some regression in their pitching, if anything.

They're still lacking for star power. I'll take Yelich and Hiura over anyone in their lineup.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 27, 2020, 8:05 AM Post
Posts: 4975
Until the Reds actually make a jump and play winning baseball for a season, I'm not convinced anything they do puts them into contention - seems like everyone has been waiting on them to become a good team that competes for a playoff spot forever.

IMO they are the Mariners of the NL - a team that isn't afraid to make alot of moves but at the end of the day looks more like it's chasing its tail than building an organization that can consistently win.

As for the rest of the division, totally agreed that all of the Cards, Cubs, and Brewers have appeared to take a step back up to this point in the offseason. The Brewers appeared to have retooled their roster in a way that replaces guys they lost with a decent mix capable of meeting or even exceeding last year's offensive production. Pitching is still a question mark, however their staff wasn't exactly lights out last season and I'd argue they are less reliant on the younger more unpredictable arms than they were in 2019. The Cubs and Cards, on the other hand, still have holes to fill on their rosters - I'd expect the Cards to make another move or two to solidify their roster, while it wouldn't surprise me to see the Cubs go into 2020 with what they have or even trade Bryant or Contreras and view 2020 as a soft rebuilding year.

Castellanos can hit, but his ceiling appears to be that of a 3.0 WAR player who plays bad defense wherever he's stuck in the field on an NL club...I just don't see him as a fit for the Brewers with Garcia in the mix. It's interesting that he still isn't signed, though...


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Online  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 27, 2020, 8:26 AM Post
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Posts: 374
It appears that Castellanos to the Reds is a done deal. Too bad ... that bat is terrific. That's a big bummer ... but realistically he would have been tough for the Brewers to find a spot for, especially after they signed Garcia. It will be extremely interesting to see which of those two has the better year this year. If Castellanos's Cubs numbers were legit, watch out! I don't really like the rest of the Reds' lineup, though.

Truth is, though ... I'd rather he go to the Reds than one of the true contenders in the Central - the Cards or Cubs.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 27, 2020, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 4975
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
It appears that Castellanos to the Reds is a done deal. Too bad ... that bat is terrific. That's a big bummer ... but realistically he would have been tough for the Brewers to find a spot for, especially after they signed Garcia. It will be extremely interesting to see which of those two has the better year this year. If Castellanos's Cubs numbers were legit, watch out! I don't really like the rest of the Reds' lineup, though.

Truth is, though ... I'd rather he go to the Reds than one of the true contenders in the Central - the Cards or Cubs.


Those Cub stats are the statistical outlier in a big way for Castellanos - granted, not playing home games in Comerica will improve his stats wherever he plays... so I'm sure his Cincy stats will look pretty good. He's probably around a high 0.800s OPS offensive player playing half his games in Cincy. NL Central will once again be pretty competitive with a bunch of teams that project to be slightly better than 0.500 clubs beating each other up.

I'm interested seeing what his contract winds up being. Also interested to see how Cincy starts the year - if their mishmash roster doesn't gell and they fall on their faces I could see them being sellers in a hurry with some pretty good trade pieces.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
Posted: January 27, 2020, 9:01 AM Post
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Posts: 1202
Location: Baltimore, MD
Well it's definitely going to be an interesting division next year! Tons of questions marks with both the Cubs and Cardinals doing practically nothing while losing a few pieces, the Brewers overturning so much of the roster, and the Reds adding so much.


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