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Nick Castellanos

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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#41

Posted: December 05, 2019, 12:45 PM Post
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Posts: 10234
MrTPlush said:
Castellanos in the OF and then Braun at 1B? Is defense not a thing of value anymore?


It appears that the Brewers may be thinking that way.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#42

Posted: December 05, 2019, 12:56 PM Post
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Posts: 2395
Didn't we once have Betancourt, Weeks, Fielder and McGehee on the IF and we won 96 games? Not that I want to try to do that again, but it is possible.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#43

Posted: December 05, 2019, 12:58 PM Post
Posts: 13184
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Castellanos in the OF and then Braun at 1B? Is defense not a thing of value anymore?


It appears that the Brewers may be thinking that way.


Which is interesting because when Stearns came he made some moves and everyone assumed he valued good defense and versatility...now it seem like the opposite. I am sure he values versatility (who doesn't), but I think he really just wants the players that will add the most value regardless. A good small market GM probably doesn't fall in love with any specific attribute and instead will make a team however he seems fit in any given year.

The one thing he has stuck to still is his unwillingness to invest in pitching. We will see if that stays true as the offseason moves on and he has some much money to spend


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#44

Posted: December 05, 2019, 1:12 PM Post
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Posts: 10234
MrTPlush said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Castellanos in the OF and then Braun at 1B? Is defense not a thing of value anymore?


It appears that the Brewers may be thinking that way.


Which is interesting because when Stearns came he made some moves and everyone assumed he valued good defense and versatility...now it seem like the opposite. I am sure he values versatility (who doesn't), but I think he really just wants the players that will add the most value regardless. A good small market GM probably doesn't fall in love with any specific attribute and instead will make a team however he seems fit in any given year.

The one thing he has stuck to still is his unwillingness to invest in pitching. We will see if that stays true as the offseason moves on and he has some much money to spend


it seems that Stearns takes an extremely pragmatic approach to team building, and you are right, the acquisitions are 100% based on analytical value. Heck, if there is some sort of metric that tells Stearns that Castellanos would provide more value if he was signed to be the team's everyday 3B, it wouldn't surprise me. If that's the route they go, though, it may be tough to find pitchers that want to come throw with that level of defense playing behind them.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#45

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:05 PM Post
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Posts: 11295
This guys scares me. Before his hot month with the Cubs, he wasn't so great, in fact, a disappointment. Are we really willing to stick that kind of cash into a guy who had a hot month in the bigs?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#46

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:11 PM Post
Posts: 342
turborickey said:
This guys scares me. Before his hot month with the Cubs, he wasn't so great, in fact, a disappointment. Are we really willing to stick that kind of cash into a guy who had a hot month in the bigs?


4.7 bWAR in 2018

OPS+
2016 - 120
2017 - 112
2018 - 128
2019 - 121

Only 27 years old


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#47

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:17 PM Post
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Posts: 10234
billymac said:
turborickey said:
This guys scares me. Before his hot month with the Cubs, he wasn't so great, in fact, a disappointment. Are we really willing to stick that kind of cash into a guy who had a hot month in the bigs?


4.7 bWAR in 2018

OPS+
2016 - 120
2017 - 112
2018 - 128
2019 - 121

Only 27 years old


Yeah ... probably not the MVP-level hitter he looked like with the Cubs, but the dude is good. Offensively he's be a perfect for for this team. It would just be a matter of stomaching the defense.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#48

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
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Posts: 602
turborickey said:
This guys scares me. Before his hot month with the Cubs, he wasn't so great, in fact, a disappointment. Are we really willing to stick that kind of cash into a guy who had a hot month in the bigs?

Chances are the discrepancy can be explained by pointing out he went from a lineup with very little protection to one with protection galore. Castellanos in his 100 games with Detroit still finished 1st in OPS (.790), his 11 HRs were 4 HR short of the team lead, had 10 more doubles than the next highest player and finished 2nd in total bases to Miggy who edged him out for 1st by only 10 bases with 110 more plate appearances.

That entire Detroit offense was a world class stinker and he was their best player. I imagine opposing teams focused on trying not to let him beat them.

He's a good ballplayer, I'm on board.


Last edited by SeaBass on December 05, 2019, 2:32 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#49

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 11295
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
billymac said:
turborickey said:
This guys scares me. Before his hot month with the Cubs, he wasn't so great, in fact, a disappointment. Are we really willing to stick that kind of cash into a guy who had a hot month in the bigs?


4.7 bWAR in 2018

OPS+
2016 - 120
2017 - 112
2018 - 128
2019 - 121

Only 27 years old


Yeah ... probably not the MVP-level hitter he looked like with the Cubs, but the dude is good. Offensively he's be a perfect for for this team. It would just be a matter of stomaching the defense.


...and paying a really big contract.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#50

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:34 PM Post
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Posts: 10234
turborickey said:
...and paying a really big contract.


He may be looking at a similar deal to what Moose got. Big contract for sure, but I think I like him for the next 4 seasons more than I like Moose.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#51

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:48 PM Post
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Posts: 11295
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
turborickey said:
...and paying a really big contract.


He may be looking at a similar deal to what Moose got. Big contract for sure, but I think I like him for the next 4 seasons more than I like Moose.


At some point, defense has to be considered for future signings.

can you imagine the IGT threads when we start throwing up 3 errors per game?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#52

Posted: December 05, 2019, 2:54 PM Post
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Posts: 10234
turborickey said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
turborickey said:
...and paying a really big contract.


He may be looking at a similar deal to what Moose got. Big contract for sure, but I think I like him for the next 4 seasons more than I like Moose.


At some point, defense has to be considered for future signings.

can you imagine the IGT threads when we start throwing up 3 errors per game?


They've run some poor defenders out there in recent years, and have made it work. I don't expect that to change. I think may be a case of perceived defensive deficiencies being overstated. If the team decides that Castellanos's offensive value justifies his defensive issues, they'll throw him a contract offer. As far as we know they haven't done that yet, so perhaps they don't feel that way. But it wouldn't surprise me if he were a potential target. He checks a lot of the boxes they seemingly look for in players.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#53

Posted: December 05, 2019, 5:39 PM Post
Posts: 1105
MrTPlush said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
MrTPlush said:
Castellanos in the OF and then Braun at 1B? Is defense not a thing of value anymore?


It appears that the Brewers may be thinking that way.


Which is interesting because when Stearns came he made some moves and everyone assumed he valued good defense and versatility...now it seem like the opposite. I am sure he values versatility (who doesn't), but I think he really just wants the players that will add the most value regardless. A good small market GM probably doesn't fall in love with any specific attribute and instead will make a team however he seems fit in any given year.


I've had the same realisation recently. Most front offices focus on value, but I think Stearns and his team are stricter with it than most, and willing to go where it takes them without deviating even when it's uncomfortable and unpopular. Adding the most value where it can be added, even if the positional fit isn't ideal. A willingness to not make the big and "obvious" move if it doesn't match their valuations. A willingness to shift to wherever the "moneyball" philsophy takes them. If good defense is undervalued one year they'll sign good defenders, if bad defense is too heavily discounted they'll sign butchers. The strict value focus (And the resulting unwillingness to spend on pitching thus far), the focus on depth over stars, the trust in underlying metrics over surface ones and other things are going to be things that I believe will annoy many of the more "traditional" fans throughout his tenure. But personally I'm delighted the team has bought in fully, and seen him given seemingly free reign. I also think the organizational aspects in terms of drafting, development etc. still haven't been seen, that it has taken time to fully implement.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#54

Posted: December 05, 2019, 5:56 PM Post
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Posts: 5868
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Joey Meyer Bombs said:

As much as I dislike Ozuna, I’d be ok with that. I can’t see Ozuna signing a 1-year deal though.


I am just not seeing a market for Ozuna and he may just bet on himself like Grandal did and go that route.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#55

Posted: December 05, 2019, 6:02 PM Post
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Posts: 3632
All of our pitchers are either already bad or have a 16+ K/9, who needs defense?


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#56

Posted: December 12, 2019, 4:55 PM Post
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Posts: 7040
Castellanos reminds me of another guy that saw a mid-career breakout, J.D. Martinez. I think Castellanos would evolve into a legit middle of the order bat playing half a season at Miller/AmFam Park.

I know this doesn’t prove anything, but Castellanos is only 27 years old. Here is a comparison between Martinez and Castellanos through their age-27 seasons...


J.D. Martinez through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.275 .327 .471 .798 118


Nick Castellanos through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.277 .326 .471 .797 113


I predict Castellanos is on the verge of a very similar career breakout, and I would love for it to be as a member of the Brewers. I can get past the defensive concerns and believe he will be a good replacement for Braun starting next year.


Edit: Here is another right handed hitting outfielder that went on to have a very good run from ages 28-30.

Corey Hart through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.273 .326 .470 .795 106


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#57

Posted: December 12, 2019, 5:30 PM Post
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Posts: 3446
Location: California
Eye Black said:
Castellanos reminds me of another guy that saw a mid-career breakout, J.D. Martinez. I think Castellanos would evolve into a legit middle of the order bat playing half a season at Miller/AmFam Park.

I know this doesn’t prove anything, but Castellanos is only 27 years old. Here is a comparison between Martinez and Castellanos through their age-27 seasons...


J.D. Martinez through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.275 .327 .471 .798 118


Nick Castellanos through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.277 .326 .471 .797 113


I predict Castellanos is on the verge of a very similar career breakout, and I would love for it to be as a member of the Brewers. I can get past the defensive concerns and believe he will be a good replacement for Braun starting next year.


Edit: Here is another right handed hitting outfielder that went on to have a very good run from ages 28-30.

Corey Hart through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.273 .326 .470 .795 106

I love the bat and would think he is a 30-35 HR, 100+ RBI bat in Miller Park but where do you play him? That D is supposed to be pretty rough.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#58

Posted: December 12, 2019, 5:41 PM Post
Posts: 336
Warning Track Power said:
Eye Black said:
Castellanos reminds me of another guy that saw a mid-career breakout, J.D. Martinez. I think Castellanos would evolve into a legit middle of the order bat playing half a season at Miller/AmFam Park.

I know this doesn’t prove anything, but Castellanos is only 27 years old. Here is a comparison between Martinez and Castellanos through their age-27 seasons...


J.D. Martinez through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.275 .327 .471 .798 118


Nick Castellanos through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.277 .326 .471 .797 113


I predict Castellanos is on the verge of a very similar career breakout, and I would love for it to be as a member of the Brewers. I can get past the defensive concerns and believe he will be a good replacement for Braun starting next year.


Edit: Here is another right handed hitting outfielder that went on to have a very good run from ages 28-30.

Corey Hart through age 27:

BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
.273 .326 .470 .795 106

I love the bat and would think he is a 30-35 HR, 100+ RBI bat in Miller Park but where do you play him? That D is supposed to be pretty rough.



If the organization under Stearns has shown anything its a willingness to forego defense for big bats. We'd find a spot for him

website


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#59

Posted: December 12, 2019, 7:36 PM Post
Posts: 1172
Location: Washburn, WI
Castellanos is one of those guys that the Brewers could make a strong push for and I think is a very realistic target. I am sure that Boras is looking for a 7 or 8 year deal for him based on his age, but I think a 6 year deal could get it done. That takes him through his age 33 season. The only thing is how expensive will he be?

Is a 6/$90 million (AAV $15 million) enough? In this market, it’s tough to know how much he will go for. I do think this might be close to what he’s going to actually get.

He did seem to improve his defense some last year as well. And with the DH (in my opinion) coming to the NL after the 2021 season, and if his defense doesn’t improve, he could end up as the DH.

I do think he is going to breakout and be a .290 hitter with 30-35 homers and 40+ doubles possibly as early as this season. It would be awesome to have a legit right handed threat behind Yelich to protect him and make pitchers not be able to pitch around him. Heck, Yelich could become a 50 home run hitter if he has to be pitched to and can’t be pitched around! Pair those two with Hiura and Urias who I believe is going to be a .275/.350 hitter with 20 homers possibly as early as this season, and we have a nice young core to put around Yelich.


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Offline  Re: Nick Castellanos
#60

Posted: December 12, 2019, 7:47 PM Post
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Posts: 1020
Can he play 1B?


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