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Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea

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Online  Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#1

Posted: November 08, 2019, 4:02 PM Post
Posts: 788
Location: Washburn, WI
Cain has 3 years and $51 million left on his contract that runs through the 2022 season. He is coming off a season where he struggled offensively, but put together another fantastic defensive season in his way to winning his first career gold glove. Whether his legs will continue to let him be such a great defender is something worth questioning though now that he will be turning 34 early on in the 2020 season. Plus, will he rebound offensively or will he continue to be a defensive first center fielder? He does have a no trade block to only 7 teams now and I’m not sure if the Red Sox are on it. But if they aren’t, we could possibly lineup well for a trade.

This is where the Red Sox come in. The Red Sox want to get under the luxury tax, but will have a hard time doing that without moving one of their big contracts. There was rumblings about them possibly hoping Martinez would opt out to help with the payroll situation, but he decided to opt in. Martinez has 3 years and roughly $62.5 million remaining on his contract. His salary is roughly $24 million in 2020 with it dropping to around $19 million the following 2 season. He does have opt outs after 2020 and 2021.

Jackie Bradley Jr’s estimated salary in his final year through arbitration is estimated at $11 million. He plays solid defense and has some pop from the center field position.

What if the Brewers pulled off a trade like this (values provided via the online trade simulator):

Brewers Receive:
J.D. Martinez Total Value 6
Jackie Bradley Jr. Total Value 1.8

Red Sox Receive
Lorenzo Cain Total Value -16.3

Cain was worth 2.8 WAR in 2019 so I don’t agree with his value being -16.3 on the trade valuation site since he is so great defensively while outperforming Bradley Jr., offensively and defensively, who had a 2 WAR season. Bradley’s value is 1.8 which is probably a fair number since he is a solid defender in center field, has a little more pop than Cain, but doesn’t provide as much offensively as Cain does who strikes out less, steals more bases than Bradley, and is a more productive hitter than Bradley.

I think Cain’s value should be more around 0 for his contract and what he provides. But outside of that, the Red Sox want to clear payroll and this is a great way for both teams to get something they need.

The Red Sox clear ~$34.75 million from their payroll, take on Cain at $16 million in 2020, removing almost $19 million from their payroll. They get a fantastic defensive center fielder, but take on the risk of an aging player with 3 years left on his contract.

The Brewers take on approximately $19 million. They receive a solid defensive center fielder that can be a stop gap in center field and insurance if Grisham is overmatched. He can get plenty of at bats filling in for Braun, Grisham, and Yelich as needed. It also has the Brewers clearing $11 million off of the payroll after 2020 instead of being stuck with Cain long term. They also receive a right handed middle of the order bat that has hit over .300 and has had 35+ homers the last 3 seasons. He doesn’t turn 33 until late in the 2020 season. If he has another fantastic season, he could opt out of the remaining 2/$38.7 million, giving the Brewers a lot of financial flexibility after 2020 with both guys coming off the payroll. If he opts in, they will have a good right handed bat that’s under contract for only 2 more years.

The big thing is Martinez would need to play in the field and could see some time in right, but what about a permanent move to 1B? The Brewers are unconventional and Martinez is a 6’3, 220 pound man. If he worked on 1B all offseason, maybe he could be a below average fielder, but make up for it by being a true middle of the order bat we desperately need (and is right handed!).

Bring Moose back on a deal and you could have a real solid lineup. Bringing back Moose and taking on Bradley Jr. and Martinez adds about $30 million in payroll, leaving roughly $15-$20 million for other upgrades still available this offseason whether that’s at SS, C, a bullpen piece (Pomeranz), and a rotation arm or two.

Grisham/Bradley Jr.
Hiura
Yelich
Martinez
Moose
Braun
C
SS
P

It’s definitely an off the wall idea, but one that I think would benefit both teams. It’s one idea that gives the Brewers a true middle of the order bat that isn’t overly expensive and it doesn’t cost any prospects. It also gives the Brewers a ton of financial flexibility with $11 million from Braun coming off, $11 million from Bradley Jr. coming off, possibly Martinez, and other guys depending on trades/tender/non-tender decisions or other 1 year deals this offseason heading into the 2020 offseason.

Looking forward to what you all think of this type of move and what you might do differently to make something work between these two teams.


Last edited by RollieTime on November 08, 2019, 4:05 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#2

Posted: November 08, 2019, 4:04 PM Post
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Given how last year went for Cain, I cannot imagine the Red Sox doing something like this. They aren't that motivated to get under the tax.

They'll just nontender JBJ most likely and do not need to add a sweetener.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#3

Posted: November 08, 2019, 4:23 PM Post
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Posts: 13663
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Cain to Mets?

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#4

Posted: November 08, 2019, 4:34 PM Post
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Posts: 491
Location: Chicago
Yes it is true, Boston has blown past the luxury tax threshold and probably would like to shed payroll. What is also true is that they won 84 games last year. By comparison the Cubs won 84 games last year. You can bet that Boston is not looking to tear their operation down and rebuild. I think as others have alluded to, the most likely scenario is they package some of the bad contracts they have with some of their expendable players. They're not going to trade Bogaerts or JD Martinez because that prevents them winning both in the short run and long run.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#5

Posted: November 08, 2019, 4:35 PM Post
Posts: 499
RollieTime said:
Cain has 3 years and $51 million left on his contract that runs through the 2022 season. He is coming off a season where he struggled offensively, but put together another fantastic defensive season in his way to winning his first career gold glove. Whether his legs will continue to let him be such a great defender is something worth questioning though now that he will be turning 34 early on in the 2020 season. Plus, will he rebound offensively or will he continue to be a defensive first center fielder? He does have a no trade block to only 7 teams now and I’m not sure if the Red Sox are on it. But if they aren’t, we could possibly lineup well for a trade.

This is where the Red Sox come in. The Red Sox want to get under the luxury tax, but will have a hard time doing that without moving one of their big contracts. There was rumblings about them possibly hoping Martinez would opt out to help with the payroll situation, but he decided to opt in. Martinez has 3 years and roughly $62.5 million remaining on his contract. His salary is roughly $24 million in 2020 with it dropping to around $19 million the following 2 season. He does have opt outs after 2020 and 2021.

Jackie Bradley Jr’s estimated salary in his final year through arbitration is estimated at $11 million. He plays solid defense and has some pop from the center field position.

What if the Brewers pulled off a trade like this (values provided via the online trade simulator):

Brewers Receive:
J.D. Martinez Total Value 6
Jackie Bradley Jr. Total Value 1.8

Red Sox Receive
Lorenzo Cain Total Value -16.3

Cain was worth 2.8 WAR in 2019 so I don’t agree with his value being -16.3 on the trade valuation site since he is so great defensively while outperforming Bradley Jr., offensively and defensively, who had a 2 WAR season. Bradley’s value is 1.8 which is probably a fair number since he is a solid defender in center field, has a little more pop than Cain, but doesn’t provide as much offensively as Cain does who strikes out less, steals more bases than Bradley, and is a more productive hitter than Bradley.

I think Cain’s value should be more around 0 for his contract and what he provides. But outside of that, the Red Sox want to clear payroll and this is a great way for both teams to get something they need.

The Red Sox clear ~$34.75 million from their payroll, take on Cain at $16 million in 2020, removing almost $19 million from their payroll. They get a fantastic defensive center fielder, but take on the risk of an aging player with 3 years left on his contract.

The Brewers take on approximately $19 million. They receive a solid defensive center fielder that can be a stop gap in center field and insurance if Grisham is overmatched. He can get plenty of at bats filling in for Braun, Grisham, and Yelich as needed. It also has the Brewers clearing $11 million off of the payroll after 2020 instead of being stuck with Cain long term. They also receive a right handed middle of the order bat that has hit over .300 and has had 35+ homers the last 3 seasons. He doesn’t turn 33 until late in the 2020 season. If he has another fantastic season, he could opt out of the remaining 2/$38.7 million, giving the Brewers a lot of financial flexibility after 2020 with both guys coming off the payroll. If he opts in, they will have a good right handed bat that’s under contract for only 2 more years.

The big thing is Martinez would need to play in the field and could see some time in right, but what about a permanent move to 1B? The Brewers are unconventional and Martinez is a 6’3, 220 pound man. If he worked on 1B all offseason, maybe he could be a below average fielder, but make up for it by being a true middle of the order bat we desperately need (and is right handed!).

Bring Moose back on a deal and you could have a real solid lineup. Bringing back Moose and taking on Bradley Jr. and Martinez adds about $30 million in payroll, leaving roughly $15-$20 million for other upgrades still available this offseason whether that’s at SS, C, a bullpen piece (Pomeranz), and a rotation arm or two.

Grisham/Bradley Jr.
Hiura
Yelich
Martinez
Moose
Braun
C
SS
P

It’s definitely an off the wall idea, but one that I think would benefit both teams. It’s one idea that gives the Brewers a true middle of the order bat that isn’t overly expensive and it doesn’t cost any prospects. It also gives the Brewers a ton of financial flexibility with $11 million from Braun coming off, $11 million from Bradley Jr. coming off, possibly Martinez, and other guys depending on trades/tender/non-tender decisions or other 1 year deals this offseason heading into the 2020 offseason.

Looking forward to what you all think of this type of move and what you might do differently to make something work between these two teams.


The RedSox would be giving away Martinez for nothing. If the wanted to salary dump, they could peddle him for a lot more than Lo Cain and keep Bradley Jr.


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Online  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#6

Posted: November 08, 2019, 5:08 PM Post
Posts: 788
Location: Washburn, WI
wntrtxn21 said:

The RedSox would be giving away Martinez for nothing. If the wanted to salary dump, they could peddle him for a lot more than Lo Cain and keep Bradley Jr.


That’s the point though. They were hoping he would opt out because they didn’t want to pay him. Just like how at one point people were talking about getting rid of Braun in the past or Cain even this season when he was really struggling. People were talking about getting rid of them in a salary dump situation just to clear the money. Even if it meant getting nothing in return. Bradley is probably a negative value or just about even at $11 million and J.D. has probably a slightly positive value. $24 million isn’t exactly pennies and if they want to clear the money, they need to make it worth our time. You gotta give up a little something for a team like the Brewers helping you out. It resets the luxury tax for them and allows them to clear the money and player they quite possibly were hoping was going to leave anyway and a fairly expensive outfielder that really isn’t that good. And they get a gold glove center fielder to replace them.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#7

Posted: November 08, 2019, 7:39 PM Post
Posts: 4645
bill hAll Star said:
Given how last year went for Cain, I cannot imagine the Red Sox doing something like this. They aren't that motivated to get under the tax.

They'll just nontender JBJ most likely and do not need to add a sweetener.


And i they non-tender JBJ, the Crew can get him for a decent deal.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#8

Posted: November 08, 2019, 7:46 PM Post
Posts: 179
I like the idea. I would be surprised if they move Cain, though. My feeling is that Stearns / CC/ Mark A., like having him on the team for a variety of reasons and they'd be hesitant to want to trade him.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#9

Posted: November 08, 2019, 8:19 PM Post
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Posts: 1036
Location: bush Alaska
Count me in the camp of Cain believers. Yeah he had a down year offensively but I don’t think he’s going down the slide already. I want him on the team.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#10

Posted: November 09, 2019, 9:51 AM Post
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Posts: 10649
My problem with Cain is not that he had a rough year offensively, but that this could be the beginning of a slide that will last us 3 more seasons.

We still have the guy for 3 more years, that could be a major issue.

What if last season was the beginning of the end, and we have to endure this until his contract is up? If that is the case, I want no part of that crap show.

If we could get a decent offer for him now, I'd take it if it made sense for us, not just to dump him.

I don't know, I feel he is a pretty big 45 million dollar risk going forward. If he bounces back this year, I would 100% be looking to unload him for the 2021 season. If he continues to slide, we are stuck with him.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#11

Posted: November 11, 2019, 8:57 AM Post
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turborickey said:
My problem with Cain is not that he had a rough year offensively, but that this could be the beginning of a slide that will last us 3 more seasons.

We still have the guy for 3 more years, that could be a major issue.

What if last season was the beginning of the end, and we have to endure this until his contract is up? If that is the case, I want no part of that crap show.

If we could get a decent offer for him now, I'd take it if it made sense for us, not just to dump him.

I don't know, I feel he is a pretty big 45 million dollar risk going forward. If he bounces back this year, I would 100% be looking to unload him for the 2021 season. If he continues to slide, we are stuck with him.


He just won a gold glove.

So a gold glove CF that has a declining bat (if this is true) is worth, what, $9-10 million/year?

So we're burning $6-7 million/year for a few years on Cain if his bat is truly gone.

I think the Brewers currently have pretty clean books after this year, comparatively.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain Trade Idea
#12

Posted: November 11, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
Posts: 1013
I also don't think we should expect him to start declining from his 2019 production. Statcast numbers were right in line with earlier years; he even hit the ball harder than in 2018. And that's with the lingering thumb injury and the other injuries he had. He got a bit lucky offensively in 2019, and a bit unlucky in 2018. He's neither as good or as bad as in either year. So he may very well decline over the remaining three years, but I think it'll be from a higher level than in 2019 and so will still be a productive player who will live up to his contract; that monstrous 2018 alone goes a long way towards that. The one wild card here would be injuries. A somewhat healthy LoCain is someone I expect to be a good player, but if any of the injuries turn out to be chronic then that could change things.

Trading Cain now after a poor season would see a very poor return; even if other teams believe in him, they can point to his 2019 and the contract and lowball the Brewers. So to me the right move is to ride it out. Despite his struggles at the plate the GG defense had him rate out as a league-average starter (2.8 bWAR, 1.8 fWAR), which is also around what his average AAV would be expected to get you on the open market. Performance is what matters most, but if you were to take in popularity, club house presence, charisma, entertainment value etc. then Cain is one guy who should get more leeway than most.

So I'd say there are two scenarios where the Brewers should consider trading Cain (Assuming that the return wouldn't be great here): One is if the Brewers have very strong reason to suspect that he's truly "finished" and will only deteriorate. That is something specific, not just the general aging trends. Which I find unlikely. The other one would be if the payroll savings can be directly translated into significantly strengthening the roster. Talking Cole/Rendon/Strasburg (Or a Grandal + Moustakas + pitcher(s)) type of deal here. Which also strikes me as very unlikely.


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