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Nolan Arenado

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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#61

Posted: January 21, 2020, 3:08 PM Post
Posts: 333
MrAllen said:
Yeah while I'm sure the fan in me would be happy hearing about an extension I really don't think we *should* want one. We got Yelich on the absolute perfect deal for exactly the years you want him. If we sign him to an extension, you're getting him for a bunch of years that are past his prime for a ton more money. It's basically the same thing as taking the Albert Pujols deal from the Angels. Yes the guy was amazing in his prime, but having that contract soured really quickly, and for a team like Milwaukee could be debilitating.



I've had to explain exactly this to a few of my friends who called me stupid for not wanting to extend Yelich. Also, count me out on wanting an Arenado playing outside of Colorado with that contract.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#62

Posted: January 21, 2020, 3:16 PM Post
Posts: 12920
I am not touching Arenado. We probably don't have a system worthy of getting him without using MLB pieces. On top of that you either empty the farm to watch him leave in two years after paying him crazy money (bad) or he stays because he isn't worth anywhere near what he is about to get paid (also bad).

Sounds like a bad idea unless he leads us to a 'ship.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#63

Posted: January 21, 2020, 3:32 PM Post
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Location: California
bill hAll Star said:
If we're going to operate under the same constraints of what we have (a reasonably high payroll given market size, but not a big payroll) then I don't understand a Yelich extension. Not worth paying $150-200 million (or more) for 1-2 more elite years and then a bunch of years as he fades out as Braun has since 2014 or 2016 or whatever year one believes he did.

The only way a Yelich extension makes sense is for him to get new money in 2020, 2021 and 2022 and the only way it makes sense for the Brewers to extend is if it adds about 3 years to the end of the current deal. In other words, Yelich is currently signed for 3 years $41.5 million. If the Brewers were to offer a 3 year extension for say $150 million, but were able to spread that additional $150 million over the next six years instead of the last three, Yelich's contract would become 6 years $191.5 million. Yelich gets new money over the next three years and an annual salary on par with Harper, Machado, etc. The Brewers get Yelich for three additional years.

Would he sign that? I don't know. Would he be tempted? I would think so given he will be coming into his age 31 season when he becomes a FA. Would the Brewers offer it? I don't know.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#64

Posted: January 21, 2020, 3:49 PM Post
Posts: 5087
Location: Madison, WI
I think he would take that but I also think that's too much for us to give 3/150 more. If there isn't a discount (in this scenario you're actually paying more than open market) then it doesn't really make sense. I just don't think there's a solution here unless he really wants to find a way to make it work and hates injury risk. It has to be on him to help. Financially he should play it out and take the 7/8 for 300 mil that he gets when he hits FA. ETA: See the Yeli thread now so let this get back to Arenado.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#65

Posted: January 21, 2020, 4:10 PM Post
Posts: 4780
We could have just signed Donaldson and gotten just as much a complete player for less money and not trading away anyone in the farm.

No Donaldson means 0x1bil chances of making a move for him. What is that? 0 chance. Donaldson just had a better year via BWar by .4 over Arenado. JD didn't bat at a home field called Coors.

Side note add on Arenado. He is massively increased in value because of Coors. His HRs may not be affected as much but his 2b,3b and RBI are affected a lot. He likely doesn't even becomes a 100RBI bat. Why? Well let's take a look at Colorado's team Batting Splits:

Ope. There it is, .300/.362/.522 Home and .230/.289/.388 Road Split. .362 OB vs .289 OB.
Arenado 32% more doubles at home for his career, 350% more triples at home, and 55% more RBI at home for his career.

You're not acquiring a 110+RBI machine Overall for Milw we had a .329OB last season. We don't possess that huge gap for doubles and triples. Those are mostly now outs. You go to Arenado's career OPS and it sits .799 on the road. As a Team Milw sat at .767. Sounds like those for Arenado want an .830OPS 3b paid 35mil a year for 2years and shed a lot from the farm for a bat that end of season totals they'd bark to acquire someone that is actually near .900OPS his doesn't cut it. What can we trade Arenado for in return to replenish our farm and get that bat that's .900OPS at 3b?


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#66

Posted: January 21, 2020, 4:45 PM Post
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DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#67

Posted: January 21, 2020, 4:55 PM Post
Posts: 70
His OPS on the road the last 5 years averages out to .834. I'm not saying that's wonderful but I think it's a little bit helpful when making the case that he's not good away from Coors Field. Not as good, sure, but I don't think anyone would be. You don't know until you get him away from there. Maybe it's hard to adjust to the road games when you play 81 in that altitude. I don't know. I have a hard time buying the framing that he's not productive enough.

FWIW, his career OPS at Miller Park is 1.299, second highest of any stadium he's played in. [wink]


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#68

Posted: January 21, 2020, 7:29 PM Post
Posts: 4780
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.


And that's fine. My point stands on the park effects not only for him but his teammates. .362 vs .289 OB. Slg .522 to .388. That will affect his RBI and runs scored unless he's moving to a team that has the slash rates Colorado had at home. And not one team fill that stat line. Houston did .352 and .495 as best in Baseball. Milw was 9th and 12th in baseball for OB and Slg. It's unclear if we've improved on that and at this point most must feel it's likely at or worse as the roster stands. If you tried to translate a full season for him based on his road splits for his career, that comes to roughly 29HR/85RBI So just trying to show the stat line wouldn't be 41HR and 125RBI after 156 games played for Milwaukee. Now take a line such as .275 32HR and 92RBI and are you really considering paying 35mil a year for that? Are you considering trading away valuable prospects to complete this trade?

The ideas of signing Lester or Darvish are a better idea than considering a trade for Arenado. Colorado knows they made a huge mistake with his contract and if they can get out of it they will be LoL-ing at the sucker they pawned him off to. Please, please any team in the Central do it.


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Online  Re: Nolan Arenado
#69

Posted: January 21, 2020, 7:59 PM Post
Posts: 2013
Location: Madison, WI
We can talk about money coming off the books after the season, but Arenado is still making 35 million in 2020 and it's hard to fit that into the equation when it sure looks like the owner is cutting 20 million off the payroll.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#70

Posted: January 21, 2020, 10:39 PM Post
Posts: 1150
Location: Washburn, WI
Arenado will surely see some type of dip in his offensive numbers. Knowing that, is it really worth giving up good prospects while also needing to shell out $35 million per season? I would say no. If you knew for a fact that you were getting gold glove defense, a guy that will hit .300, and hit 35+ homers, yeah absolutely it could be worth it. But any slip from that performance and you can bank on the Brewers having a tough time fielding a competitive team for the foreseeable future.

I would rather split $35 million into two significant upgrades than one guy anyway. While not having 7 years of a massive contract on the books that will absolutely limit our spending for a long long time.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#71

Posted: January 21, 2020, 11:35 PM Post
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Gyorko, Lutz, Ray, Burnes, Ashby, Zavolas and Antoine Kelly for Arenado and $50M ($20M for 20-21. If opt out is exercised we get to choose to get Lutz, Ashby, Zavolas or Kelly back as a PTBNL. If he stays with us we get $6M/yr from 22-26).


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#72

Posted: January 22, 2020, 8:25 AM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.


DJ is an outlier that benefited from the juiced ball with his style of hitting and going to an easier home run ballpark. He had 19 HR there which significantly boosted his numbers. He was perfect for hitting the ball over that short porch in RF.

Arenado's numbers would drop significantly other than maybe hitting homers at Fenway or Yankee Stadium.

He wouldn't be bad, but he'd fall off a bit.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#73

Posted: January 22, 2020, 8:36 AM Post
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bill hAll Star said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.


DJ is an outlier that benefited from the juiced ball with his style of hitting and going to an easier home run ballpark. He had 19 HR there which significantly boosted his numbers. He was perfect for hitting the ball over that short porch in RF.

Arenado's numbers would drop significantly other than maybe hitting homers at Fenway or Yankee Stadium.

He wouldn't be bad, but he'd fall off a bit.


Man, when I stumped for the Brewers to sign LeMahieu last offseason, all I was met with is "he's a Coors Field guy, he'll be terrible outside of Coors." Well, guess what ... outlier or not, LeMahieu was a stud for the Yankees. When you are a good player, you're a good player anywhere. Arenado didn't get that huge deal just because he can hit well at Coors. He got it because he's a stud. And he's going to be a stud in Arlington, Washington D.C., Milwaukee, or wherever else he ends up.



Except St. Louis. If he ends up in St. Louis, he's gonna suck [wink]

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#74

Posted: January 22, 2020, 8:39 AM Post
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There is no way I get into a bidding war for Nolan Arenado. We can't afford it in cash, and we can't afford it in prospects.

Our farm team is our future, once we start draining it for a 2 year rental who we don't know the effects of not playing 81 games at Coor's Field, it gets too damn risky.

It's fun to live in a dream world, where we can acquire guys like this, but it just isn't realistic.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#75

Posted: January 22, 2020, 10:08 AM Post
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turborickey said:
There is no way I get into a bidding war for Nolan Arenado. We can't afford it in cash, and we can't afford it in prospects.

Our farm team is our future, once we start draining it for a 2 year rental who we don't know the effects of not playing 81 games at Coor's Field, it gets too damn risky.

It's fun to live in a dream world, where we can acquire guys like this, but it just isn't realistic.

While I am a proponent of trading for Arenado, I do agree with this sentiment. I just think a lot of Brewer fans, casual and diehards, are sick of the economics of baseball where the Brewers can not only not trade for a player like Arenado, but are also unlikely to be able to afford their franchise cornerstone in Yelich.

A day of reckoning is coming for this sport and I think it is coming sooner than later.


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Online  Re: Nolan Arenado
#76

Posted: January 22, 2020, 12:00 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Warning Track Power said:

A day of reckoning is coming for this sport and I think it is coming sooner than later.


I would be curious as to why you think this? I don't really see any evidence in it changing.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#77

Posted: January 22, 2020, 1:30 PM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
bill hAll Star said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
DJ LeMahieu proved last year that the "Coors Field Effect" is arguably massively overrated. Arenado would likely be a stud wherever he plays. You cannot aggregate his road splits into a full season and expect that to be his stat line. Sometimes guys are just better hitters in their home park, regardless of where that park is.


DJ is an outlier that benefited from the juiced ball with his style of hitting and going to an easier home run ballpark. He had 19 HR there which significantly boosted his numbers. He was perfect for hitting the ball over that short porch in RF.

Arenado's numbers would drop significantly other than maybe hitting homers at Fenway or Yankee Stadium.

He wouldn't be bad, but he'd fall off a bit.


Man, when I stumped for the Brewers to sign LeMahieu last offseason, all I was met with is "he's a Coors Field guy, he'll be terrible outside of Coors." Well, guess what ... outlier or not, LeMahieu was a stud for the Yankees. When you are a good player, you're a good player anywhere. Arenado didn't get that huge deal just because he can hit well at Coors. He got it because he's a stud. And he's going to be a stud in Arlington, Washington D.C., Milwaukee, or wherever else he ends up.



Except St. Louis. If he ends up in St. Louis, he's gonna suck [wink]


He has good bat skills so he would not be a bad player anywhere.

But he is in the class of the LaStella, McNeil, Sogard where the juiced ball took a guy that hit the ball hard to all fields and was a .290/.340/.400 type of guy to a superstar because a lot of those lineouts to the right fielder became doubles to the gap or went over the fence. Especially in New York.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#78

Posted: January 22, 2020, 1:34 PM Post
Posts: 750
Brew4U said:
Warning Track Power said:

A day of reckoning is coming for this sport and I think it is coming sooner than later.


I would be curious as to why you think this? I don't really see any evidence in it changing.


Agreed. Baseball is actually doing very well, at least regionally.

Specifically, the TV numbers are excellent and thus the TV deals are big money. Attendance is also healthy, with the exception of Miami and Tampa.

So unfortunately, until people decide to watch something else on TV in the summer, nothing is going to change.

Baseball fills the regional summer TV programming void and has for many years.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#79

Posted: January 22, 2020, 2:11 PM Post
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Location: California
Brew4U said:
Warning Track Power said:

A day of reckoning is coming for this sport and I think it is coming sooner than later.


I would be curious as to why you think this? I don't really see any evidence in it changing.

Keep in mind this is just my opinion. I absolutely love baseball and yet I am becoming less tolerant of MLB's inactivity toward fixing the economic inequalities between small and large markets and overreactions to appease casual fans.

In regard to economics, Yelich should finish his career as a Brewer. However, the economics of baseball preclude this from occurring. Unlike the NBA or NFL where the Bucks can offer Giannis the most money and the Packers can keep Aaron Rodgers for his entire career, the Brewers and other small markets constantly lose the Yelichs and Coles of the sport to the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox of the sport. I am tired of it and I think other fans are losing interest in the sport because of it. Going a step further, talking to friends, coworkers, colleagues, etc, that don't live in Wisconsin and the only diehard fans of MLB anymore are fans of large market teams. I can't find a Royal, Rockie, Pirate, Ray, Mariner, Indian fan to save my life. Whereas in my group of closest friends I have live and die with the outcome of the game fans of the Chiefs, Raiders, 49ers, Packers, Broncos, Lions and Dolphins. I firmly attribute this to all teams being on equal economic footing.

In regard to the overreactions to appease casual fans, I'm fine with the four finger intentional walk. However, the idea of pitch clocks, mound visit limitations, three batter minimum, etc...just stop. Not everyone loves baseball and that is fine. Why change it for the people that spend the most on consuming the sport? You don't see soccer trying to force more scoring by changing the rules to accommodate Americans that find it boring.

I know this may come off as soapbox, but I just see a day coming soon where fans like all of us become so disgusted by watching the sport that we loved so much be changed so substantially by rule changes and being disgusted by watching Yankees-Dodgers World Series year after year.

Rant over.


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Offline  Re: Nolan Arenado
#80

Posted: January 22, 2020, 2:47 PM Post
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Posts: 10096
I agree Warning Track to much stuff being added when I was a kid the games were like 2 2-30 hours


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