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Bumgarner

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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#21

Posted: December 06, 2019, 4:25 PM Post
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He's been closer to league average than elite the last two seasons based on DRA. I'm not opposed to Bumgarner at the right price, but if the $100mm rumors are accurate that's probably beyond the Brewers interest anyway.

On top of that, the guy is a total red ass and probably not someone who would be enjoyable to root for.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/c ... -bumgarner


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#22

Posted: December 06, 2019, 4:29 PM Post
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I've said before that Bumgarner's home/road splits scare me. Last year at home OPS against him was .619. On the road, it was .840.

ERA the last three years at home: 2.63. On the road: 4.61.

His ability to eat innings is nice, but I wonder if he's being left in too long. Stats show that he has been hit harder and harder as he faced hitters a 2nd and 3rd time. The following covers 2017-2019:

1st time through: .560 OPS
2nd time through: .772 OPS
3rd time through: .852 OPS

I honestly don't know if MadBum is a good idea at $15-17M (or more) per year. I like the idea of a guy who can actually throw more than 150 innings. But who knows how that will hold up outside of SF.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#23

Posted: December 06, 2019, 4:34 PM Post
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Troll...

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#24

Posted: December 06, 2019, 10:38 PM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
LouisEly said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
part of me hopes this is like the Darvish sweepstakes where the Brewers got involved in the bidding with a decent offer and it was publicly leaked before the Cubs outbid them...

I don't know that the Brewers ever made a serious offer for Darvish - I think they may have been just leaking it to punk the Cubs into spending big on him.

Might be the case here too - they could be leaking it to punk the Reds into signing him for a big contract so that they can get the Reds to overpay and then get the guys they really want.


This is what I think too. With how concerning his home/road splits are, I don’t think Stearns will have too much interest. Especially if he’s asking $15+ million per year. I would guess it’s a ploy to get the Cubs, Cardinals, or Reds to throw their money at this guy who appears to be trending in the wrong direction similar to Archer’s career path.

I would not be surprised to see Bumgarner have the worst season of his career in 2020 regardless of who he’s pitching for.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#25

Posted: December 09, 2019, 12:36 PM Post
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MLBTraderumors is saying he's asking for nine figures over five years. Makes sense that he's going to try to get as much as possible, but I don't know that I want the Brewers giving him $20M+/year for five seasons.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#26

Posted: December 09, 2019, 3:09 PM Post
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monty57 said:
MLBTraderumors is saying he's asking for nine figures over five years. Makes sense that he's going to try to get as much as possible, but I don't know that I want the Brewers giving him $20M+/year for five seasons.


gross.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#27

Posted: December 09, 2019, 3:16 PM Post
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SRB said:
Bumgarner is definitely the highest upside arm available to us. When you are somehow only 30 and as talented as he is, a Verlander-type resurgence is not out of the question


I agree with this assessment. And a 5 year/$100M investment won't be that crippling.

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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#28

Posted: December 09, 2019, 3:23 PM Post
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SRB said:
Bumgarner is definitely the highest upside arm available to us. When you are somehow only 30 and as talented as he is, a Verlander-type resurgence is not out of the question


Ryu would be the highest upside guy...if we are going purely on upside.

Not sure I want Bumgarner at his current asking price (possibly 5/$100mil or more). He has been churning out 200+ innings since 21. Maybe he can still be TOR worthy, but he easily might be done already.


Last edited by MrTPlush on December 09, 2019, 3:35 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#29

Posted: December 09, 2019, 3:32 PM Post
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Stearns is going a trade route for a starter if he does not add Dallas as a FA.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#30

Posted: December 09, 2019, 3:43 PM Post
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He hasn't had an xFIP under 4.07 his last 3 seasons, he'd be going from one of the most pitcher friendly to one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball, he'll be really expensive and he's kind of a douche. What's not to love?


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#31

Posted: December 09, 2019, 3:46 PM Post
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Hard pass on Madison


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#32

Posted: December 09, 2019, 6:17 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
SRB said:
Bumgarner is definitely the highest upside arm available to us. When you are somehow only 30 and as talented as he is, a Verlander-type resurgence is not out of the question


I agree with this assessment. And a 5 year/$100M investment won't be that crippling.


I think Bumgarner will turn out to be more like Felix Hernandez than Verlander plus once the Yankees sign Cole the Angels will be going hard after Bumgarner. Unless you are willing to pay Bumgarner somewhere around $22m a season or more you are not getting him.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#33

Posted: December 09, 2019, 6:35 PM Post
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When I see the words "verlander like resurgence" attached to ANY pitcher, I cringe. Verlander is almost a once in a generation talent. Bumgarner is a really good pitcher who's on the wrong side of 30, who has had some sketchy peripheral numbers the last few years, and who doesn't pitch well away from San Fran.

I just don't like it when someone takes a hall of famer and says "this guy might perform like this hall of famer/once in a generation talent" because they happen to have a similar skill set or whatever. Justin Verlander is a singular talent, and paying Bumgarner 5/100 to hope that he has a Verlander like rennaisance is a fool's gambit.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#34

Posted: December 09, 2019, 6:46 PM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
When I see the words "verlander like resurgence" attached to ANY pitcher, I cringe. Verlander is almost a once in a generation talent. Bumgarner is a really good pitcher who's on the wrong side of 30, who has had some sketchy peripheral numbers the last few years, and who doesn't pitch well away from San Fran.

I just don't like it when someone takes a hall of famer and says "this guy might perform like this hall of famer/once in a generation talent" because they happen to have a similar skill set or whatever. Justin Verlander is a singular talent, and paying Bumgarner 5/100 to hope that he has a Verlander like rennaisance is a fool's gambit.


Well nobody suggested it was likely. I'm talking purely about upside. Both have had runs of dominance and runs of sketchy 4.00+ xFIP peripherals. Part of why Verlander is a Hall of Fame talent is because he had a resurgence after falling back to Earth for a few years (and because he has been unusually durable thought his long career, but that's a separate issue).

If you want a guy you can dream of putting up 200+ IP seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA, the only pitchers available this offseason are/were Cole, Strasburg, and Bumgarner. Bumgarner is still relatively young and one could at least argue that his fall from dominance is due to a few years of injuries that he is now on the other side of.

Fair point above about Ryu having similar upside, but he's obviously unlikely to be as durable.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#35

Posted: December 09, 2019, 6:55 PM Post
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Agreed with adam and brewmann. I'd be very unhappy about a madbum signing. I cannot imagine him living up to whatever contract he gets.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#36

Posted: December 09, 2019, 7:05 PM Post
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SRB said:
RoCoBrewfan said:
When I see the words "verlander like resurgence" attached to ANY pitcher, I cringe. Verlander is almost a once in a generation talent. Bumgarner is a really good pitcher who's on the wrong side of 30, who has had some sketchy peripheral numbers the last few years, and who doesn't pitch well away from San Fran.

I just don't like it when someone takes a hall of famer and says "this guy might perform like this hall of famer/once in a generation talent" because they happen to have a similar skill set or whatever. Justin Verlander is a singular talent, and paying Bumgarner 5/100 to hope that he has a Verlander like rennaisance is a fool's gambit.


Well nobody suggested it was likely. I'm talking purely about upside. Both have had runs of dominance and runs of sketchy 4.00+ xFIP peripherals. Part of why Verlander is a Hall of Fame talent is because he had a resurgence after falling back to Earth for a few years (and because he has been unusually durable thought his long career, but that's a separate issue).

If you want a guy you can dream of putting up 200+ IP seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA, the only pitchers available this offseason are/were Cole, Strasburg, and Bumgarner. Bumgarner is still relatively young and one could at least argue that his fall from dominance is due to a few years of injuries that he is now on the other side of.

Fair point above about Ryu having similar upside, but he's obviously unlikely to be as durable.


100 million+ for dreams of upside on 30 year olds is not something teams with limited financial capabilities should be doing.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#37

Posted: December 09, 2019, 7:07 PM Post
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RoCoBrewfan said:
SRB said:
RoCoBrewfan said:
When I see the words "verlander like resurgence" attached to ANY pitcher, I cringe. Verlander is almost a once in a generation talent. Bumgarner is a really good pitcher who's on the wrong side of 30, who has had some sketchy peripheral numbers the last few years, and who doesn't pitch well away from San Fran.

I just don't like it when someone takes a hall of famer and says "this guy might perform like this hall of famer/once in a generation talent" because they happen to have a similar skill set or whatever. Justin Verlander is a singular talent, and paying Bumgarner 5/100 to hope that he has a Verlander like rennaisance is a fool's gambit.


Well nobody suggested it was likely. I'm talking purely about upside. Both have had runs of dominance and runs of sketchy 4.00+ xFIP peripherals. Part of why Verlander is a Hall of Fame talent is because he had a resurgence after falling back to Earth for a few years (and because he has been unusually durable thought his long career, but that's a separate issue).

If you want a guy you can dream of putting up 200+ IP seasons with a sub 3.00 ERA, the only pitchers available this offseason are/were Cole, Strasburg, and Bumgarner. Bumgarner is still relatively young and one could at least argue that his fall from dominance is due to a few years of injuries that he is now on the other side of.

Fair point above about Ryu having similar upside, but he's obviously unlikely to be as durable.


100 million+ for dreams of upside on 30 year olds is not something teams with limited financial capabilities should be doing.


I think you'll find that nobody in this thread is advocating for signing Bumgarner. [smile]


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#38

Posted: December 09, 2019, 10:14 PM Post
Posts: 2783
I'll admit I'm not completely opposed to signing Bumgarner. At minimum I'm intrigued. IF the Brewers were to sign him, it would be the first major SP acquisition since Greinke 8 years ago. It could flop. It could work out great. It could end up somewhere in between. None of us has a crystal ball.

There are some reasons to doubt that Bumgarner's a pure ToR starter anymore. But he's at least been that in his career -- legitimately on an MLB-wide level -- and that pedigree counts for something. Over multiple segments/interviews/discussions, the MLB Network Radio guys were going on for 45 minutes this afternoon about the value of someone of that pedigree & experience within a clubhouse (talking about the impact of having a Greinke as a teammate for a few years might have on a Robbie Ray and others, for one example). Alone that's not a reason to overpay ridiculously, but it is a legit "intangibles" factor that cannot be brushed off.

We seem to face the same plight every year, needing some influx of proven starting pitching -- with the moves most years seeming underwhelming at best when they happen. We've heard the annual choruses of how all our in-house guys are likely #3's at best, can't be counted on to pitch to any level above that, are inconsistent, flashes in the pan, etc., etc., etc. Our MiLB pipeline isn't offering us any pending aces for 2020 that we're aware of. . . . I don't know where it would come from, at least on an immediate sort of basis, but I think we'd all agree that a meaningful/significant SP upgrade isn't coming out of thin air.

Since we can't afford Cole/Strasburg money, we need to look at next-tier options (or lower). That means Ryu, Keuchel, Bumgarner, etc. If there weren't more obvious risks inherent in each of them, they'd be more likely getting something closer to Cole/Strasburg/Kershaw/Greinke money.

Throwing significant dollars at Bumgarner could prove completely foolish. Ditto for others in that tier of FA SPs. It could also provide us an ace.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#39

Posted: December 09, 2019, 10:21 PM Post
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With the Cardinals reportedly pursuing him, I can’t think of an easier set of battery mates to dislike than the duo of Bumgarner and Yadi Molina would be.


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Offline  Re: Bumgarner
#40

Posted: December 09, 2019, 10:32 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
With the Cardinals reportedly pursuing him, I can’t think of an easier set of battery mates to dislike than the duo of Bumgarner and Yadi Molina would be.


God help the hitter who doesn't follow the letter of every unwritten rule that ever existed when that battery is out on the field.


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