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2019 Winter Meetings Rumors

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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 11, 2019, 8:33 PM Post
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I still like to take a flyer on Walker too.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 11, 2019, 8:36 PM Post
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wibadgers23 said:
Looks like the Angels are getting Rendon.


If true, it's going to be simply amazing that the Angels will have arguably the three most talented baseball players in the world, and yet from my perspective will still have a mediocre team barring some significant trades.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 11, 2019, 8:40 PM Post
Posts: 584
SRB said:
wibadgers23 said:
Looks like the Angels are getting Rendon.


If true, it's going to be simply amazing that the Angels will have arguably the three most talented baseball players in the world, and yet from my perspective will still have a mediocre team barring some significant trades.


Yeah this really isn't going to do anything for their garbage pitching staff, but they have the money to change that.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 11, 2019, 9:53 PM Post
Posts: 86
So last season we had such slow movement on the FA front that notable players didn’t sign til the season was 2 months in. This year almost every major FA will be gone by when the winter meetings conclude


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 9:41 AM Post
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Cardinals interested in Ryu per Morosi.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 9:08 PM Post
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The Mariners are now actively shopping Kyle Seager, and he may be willing to modify his contract (which converts a team option into a player option if traded) in order to play for a contender.

He'd be another one of my top targets. Very underrated player in my opinion.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 9:11 PM Post
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SRB said:
The Mariners are now actively shopping Kyle Seager, and he may be willing to modify his contract (which converts a team option into a player option if traded) in order to play for a contender.

He'd be another one of my top targets. Very underrated player in my opinion.


He's mentioned as being another candidate for a Cozart-type trade where the Mariners attach a prospect to Seager to get his contract off their hands. That would be an interesting idea.


Last edited by Joey Meyer Bombs on December 12, 2019, 10:12 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 9:20 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
SRB said:
The Mariners are now actively shopping Kyle Seager, and he may be willing to modify his contract (which converts a team option into a player option if traded) in order to play for a contender.

He'd be another one of my top targets. Very underrated player in my opinion.


He's mentioned as being another candidate for a Cosart-type trade where the Mariners attach a prospect to Seager to get his contract off their hands. That would be an interesting idea.


I'd even settle for just an upside reliever like RHP Zac Grotz. All the better if Seattle actually gives us a quality prospect.

I think outside of Seattle, Seager could pop 30 HR with elite defense.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 9:57 PM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
SRB said:
The Mariners are now actively shopping Kyle Seager, and he may be willing to modify his contract (which converts a team option into a player option if traded) in order to play for a contender.

He'd be another one of my top targets. Very underrated player in my opinion.


He's mentioned as being another candidate for a Cosart-type trade where the Mariners attach a prospect to Seager to get his contract off their hands. That would be an interesting idea.


Do you have a link? I’m interested on where that came from.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 10:12 PM Post
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RollieTime said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
SRB said:
The Mariners are now actively shopping Kyle Seager, and he may be willing to modify his contract (which converts a team option into a player option if traded) in order to play for a contender.

He'd be another one of my top targets. Very underrated player in my opinion.


He's mentioned as being another candidate for a Cosart-type trade where the Mariners attach a prospect to Seager to get his contract off their hands. That would be an interesting idea.


Do you have a link? I’m interested on where that came from.


https://theathletic.com/1456983/2019/12 ... le-seager/

Perhaps the easiest path to a trade would be for the Mariners to pay down Seager’s remaining obligation by including cash in the transaction. The Mariners also could make Seager more attractive by including a well-regarded prospect as part of their offer. The team’s farm system has risen from 30th in the majors in 2018 to 11th in ‘19, according to Baseball America, creating a greater number of trade options.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 10:20 PM Post
Posts: 1163
Location: Washburn, WI
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
RollieTime said:
Do you have a link? I’m interested on where that came from.


https://theathletic.com/1456983/2019/12 ... le-seager/

Perhaps the easiest path to a trade would be for the Mariners to pay down Seager’s remaining obligation by including cash in the transaction. The Mariners also could make Seager more attractive by including a well-regarded prospect as part of their offer. The team’s farm system has risen from 30th in the majors in 2018 to 11th in ‘19, according to Baseball America, creating a greater number of trade options.


Thanks. The issue I see with this is that I don’t think the Mariners are trying to compete quite yet. I don’t think having Seager on their payroll for the next two years will be such an issue that they attach a prospect to rid themselves of him. But if they are willing to attach something of value to move him, fine by me!


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 10:26 PM Post
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RollieTime said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
RollieTime said:
Do you have a link? I’m interested on where that came from.


https://theathletic.com/1456983/2019/12 ... le-seager/

Perhaps the easiest path to a trade would be for the Mariners to pay down Seager’s remaining obligation by including cash in the transaction. The Mariners also could make Seager more attractive by including a well-regarded prospect as part of their offer. The team’s farm system has risen from 30th in the majors in 2018 to 11th in ‘19, according to Baseball America, creating a greater number of trade options.


Thanks. The issue I see with this is that I don’t think the Mariners are trying to compete quite yet. I don’t think having Seager on their payroll for the next two years will be such an issue that they attach a prospect to rid themselves of him. But if they are willing to attach something of value to move him, fine by me!


I originally thought the same thing, but Rosenthal keeps pretty good tabs on this kind of stuff, so if he says it's a possibility, it likely is. Seager is probably more valuable than Cozart, but he's owed a lot more too.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 10:29 PM Post
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2020: $19mm
2021: $18mm
2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 10:52 PM Post
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long ball said:
2020: $19mm
2021: $18mm
2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.


League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 11:17 PM Post
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SRB said:
long ball said:
2020: $19mm
2021: $18mm
2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.


League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.

I like Seager a lot, but I think you're overstating him.

Seager's floor is probably around the .673 OPS he put up in 2018 (Moose was not been under a .774 OPS since six years ago).

I'd probably say Seager is a bit above average. I don't expect the 5.0 WAR seasons he had 4-5 years ago. He's 32 years old - most players don't suddenly revert to the 27 year old selves.

But I think he can still be good. A change scenery, better health, etc., can really help a guy. And more importantly, getting out of Seattle will help.

For his career, Seager's OPS away from his home ball park is .799. At home it's .732. I would expect him to improve getting into a more friendly hitting environment such as Miller Park (or whatever it's called now).

I definitely think we'd have to protect ourselves financially if we traded for him. But I would be okay with Seager as our 3B if something could be worked out.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 12, 2019, 11:36 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
SRB said:
long ball said:
2020: $19mm
2021: $18mm
2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.


League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.

I like Seager a lot, but I think you're overstating him.

Seager's floor is probably around the .673 OPS he put up in 2018 (Moose was not been under a .774 OPS since six years ago).


Yes and even in that fluke season he was worth 1.5 fWAR. Over his entire career Moustakas has averaged about 2 fWAR over full season. That's the benefit of elite defense.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 13, 2019, 12:34 AM Post
Posts: 749
SRB said:
long ball said:
2020: $19mm
2021: $18mm
2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.


League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.


I think you way overvalue Seager. His floor was 2018 when he was a .8 WAR (.221/.273 OPS .673) His last three years: .249/.323 - .221/.273 - .239/.321. Was rated in the bottom third of all 3B last year. Right now he IS about a league average 3B.


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Online  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 13, 2019, 8:53 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:
I think you way overvalue Seager. His floor was 2018 when he was a .8 WAR (.221/.273 OPS .673) His last three years: .249/.323 - .221/.273 - .239/.321. Was rated in the bottom third of all 3B last year. Right now he IS about a league average 3B.

In only 106 games last year, Seager was a 2.4 bWAR/ 2.9 fWAR player. I don't consider that to be league average. (For reference, Moustakas had a 2.8 fWAR in 143 games last year.)

Mitch Haniger is arbitration-eligible. Maybe the Mariners don't want to pay him either. I'd take him as the offset in a package with Seager, and the only ask would be for Seager to covert the 2022 option to a team option with a reasonable ($2M max) buyout and have the Mariners send enough cash to cover the buyout. Send the Mariners Corey Ray and a couple of lower level guys (Joe Gray, Larry Ernesto).


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 13, 2019, 10:15 AM Post
Posts: 834
SRB said:
long ball said:
2020: $19mm
2021: $18mm
2022: $15mm (this player option becomes guaranteed if he's traded)

Honestly I don't have very much interest at all in Seager unless the Mariners are paying over 50% of the remaining contract.

Locking yourself into a league average player in their 30s for 3 more years just isn't a very Stearnsy move.


League average player? His floor is Moustakas and his ceiling is 5+ WAR.


Baseball Prospectus:
2017: 3.0
2018: 2.5
2019: 2.2

Baseball Reference:
2017: 2.9
2018: 1.2
2019: 2.4

Fangraphs:
2017:3.5
2018: 1.5
2019: 2.9

He's been about a league average hitter over that time frame propped up by positional adjustment and defense. If we assume 2.0 WAR is a league average player, Seager has been slightly above that. If we take into context that third base is deeper than just about any position in the league right now I think it's completely fair to call him league average. And keep in mind we are talking about age 32, 33, and 34 of Seager. So even if we start him out at a projected 2.5 WAR in 2020, it's probably going down from there.

And your point about Moustakas is actually making my argument for me. the Brewers didn't want to lock themselves into a multi year contract with him either.


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Offline  Re: 2019 Winter Meetings Rumors
Posted: December 13, 2019, 10:30 AM Post
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Does anyone have access to that hit spray chart site to overlay Seager's production last year but at Miller Park? 23 home runs in under 400 at bats while playing in Seattle... he is certainly a candidate for the Miller Park spike we hypothesize about if the offense is what we are concerned about here on the field.


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