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J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report

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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#21

Posted: December 10, 2019, 5:49 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
SRB said:
I was initially on board with this because I don't think Happ was actually that bad last year once you factor in Yankee Stadium. A 107 ERA- and 112 FIP- are bad but not disastrous, and the premise is that we would be paying $17 million for both a back-end starter and a major league piece (probably at 1B or 3B).

But on further reflection I don't see how you can do a deal when it basically requires you to manipulate Happ's playing time to avoid his vesting option. What if he is lights out for us, we nonetheless manipulate his playing time, he files a grievance and wins? No prospect that the Yankees would offer us is worth a potential $34 million commitment.


I think you could probably get around this pretty easily, just negotiate in the trade that the Yankees will pay X dollars, say half of the 2021 salary if it vests which would leave us on the hook for $8.5M. Which we'd want to do anyway if he was lights out, we wouldn't want to manipulate his time to get out of it.


That would work, but if the entire point for the Yankees is to get rid of his salary that might substantially impact the other player we get in return.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#22

Posted: December 10, 2019, 6:12 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
Eye Black said:
I am one of those people that is still a believer in the talent that Clint Frazier has, but the seriousness of his lingering concussion symptoms is pretty scary stuff. I hope he goes on to have a good baseball career, but it’s sort of worrisome that another head injury could prove career ending for him.

Frazier's a guy who could really use a change of scenery. Just let him get someplace out of the limelight and away from his past issues.

No doubt about it, his ceiling is extremely high and his situation seems to have plateaued in New York. I could definitely see him becoming an All Star caliber OF hitter with a new opportunity. His bat speed has always been tantalizing, so it’s not hard to picture him putting it all together somewhere else.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#23

Posted: December 10, 2019, 6:21 PM Post
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The Angels/Giants just swung a trade similar to this with the Giants taking on 1 year and all $12M left in Zack Cozart's final year and were given SS Prospect Will Wilson.

It would be great if the Brewers could swing a Happ/Andujar type deal like this.

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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#24

Posted: December 10, 2019, 7:01 PM Post
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SRB said:
I was initially on board with this because I don't think Happ was actually that bad last year once you factor in Yankee Stadium. A 107 ERA- and 112 FIP- are bad but not disastrous, and the premise is that we would be paying $17 million for both a back-end starter and a major league piece (probably at 1B or 3B).

But on further reflection I don't see how you can do a deal when it basically requires you to manipulate Happ's playing time to avoid his vesting option. What if he is lights out for us, we nonetheless manipulate his playing time, he files a grievance and wins? No prospect that the Yankees would offer us is worth a potential $34 million commitment.


If he is lights out, why would it be bad to have him another season? It’s not like there are top arms coming up in the farm system


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#25

Posted: December 10, 2019, 7:45 PM Post
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If the Brewers are willing to pay a 37 yr old Happ $17M a year, wouldn't Jordan Lyles at 2 years $16M be a much better deal. I would've much prefer to get Lyles instead.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#26

Posted: December 10, 2019, 7:48 PM Post
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Devinep said:
It doesn’t have to be prospects though. Andujar, Ford, tauchman, or Frazier would all be helpful the the brewers this year. I agree they don’t need to “buy” prospects at this point

Agreed - I'd much rather get a young, controlled, major-league ready player who can help fill 3B or SP than a prospect.

Andujar would be nice. Urshella will be 28 already next year, and only walked 25 times in 476 PA's.

The Brewers might be able to both get a potential TOR and fill other holes if they take Price from Boston. Boston really wants to get under the cap, and not many teams can or will take on Price's contract. Michael Chavis could fill 3B nicely, and I think the Brewers could extract more than that.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#27

Posted: December 10, 2019, 7:53 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
Devinep said:
It doesn’t have to be prospects though. Andujar, Ford, tauchman, or Frazier would all be helpful the the brewers this year. I agree they don’t need to “buy” prospects at this point

Agreed - I'd much rather get a young, controlled, major-league ready player who can help fill 3B or SP than a prospect.

Andujar would be nice. Urshella will be 28 already next year, and only walked 25 times in 476 PA's.

The Brewers might be able to both get a potential TOR and fill other holes if they take Price from Boston. Boston really wants to get under the cap, and not many teams can or will take on Price's contract. Michael Chavis could fill 3B nicely, and I think the Brewers could extract more than that.


I think you'd need Chavis plus someone like Benintendi to consider taking on the entirety of Price's contract. Chavis alone only gets them off the hook for part of his salary.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#28

Posted: December 10, 2019, 7:59 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
Devinep said:
It doesn’t have to be prospects though. Andujar, Ford, tauchman, or Frazier would all be helpful the the brewers this year. I agree they don’t need to “buy” prospects at this point

Agreed - I'd much rather get a young, controlled, major-league ready player who can help fill 3B or SP than a prospect.

Andujar would be nice. Urshella will be 28 already next year, and only walked 25 times in 476 PA's.

The Brewers might be able to both get a potential TOR and fill other holes if they take Price from Boston. Boston really wants to get under the cap, and not many teams can or will take on Price's contract. Michael Chavis could fill 3B nicely, and I think the Brewers could extract more than that.


David Price is getting paid $32 million (32 MILLION DOLLARS) over the next three years. You want to take that on for the pleasure of adding Michael Chavis? Michael Chavis?????????????????? Am I taking crazy pills?


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#29

Posted: December 10, 2019, 8:00 PM Post
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tigerbrew said:
If the Brewers are willing to pay a 37 yr old Happ $17M a year, wouldn't Jordan Lyles at 2 years $16M be a much better deal. I would've much prefer to get Lyles instead.


Because, as everyone who is interested in this has pointed out, the Yankees would have to send money and/or additional talent to be worthwhile


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#30

Posted: December 10, 2019, 8:05 PM Post
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Devinep said:
SRB said:
I was initially on board with this because I don't think Happ was actually that bad last year once you factor in Yankee Stadium. A 107 ERA- and 112 FIP- are bad but not disastrous, and the premise is that we would be paying $17 million for both a back-end starter and a major league piece (probably at 1B or 3B).

But on further reflection I don't see how you can do a deal when it basically requires you to manipulate Happ's playing time to avoid his vesting option. What if he is lights out for us, we nonetheless manipulate his playing time, he files a grievance and wins? No prospect that the Yankees would offer us is worth a potential $34 million commitment.


If he is lights out, why would it be bad to have him another season? It’s not like there are top arms coming up in the farm system


I'm with this to some extent. The real value the Brewers get is the prospects in the deal.

That said... Happ intrigues me as a bullpen option. Maybe as a swing role, maybe as a back-end option. Suppose he can do what Ian Kennedy did for the Royals.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#31

Posted: December 10, 2019, 8:16 PM Post
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I was under the impression that the Yankees sole purpose is to move ALL of Happ's salary for luxury tax purposes. Then factor in the vesting option and it makes it very difficult to get done.

Kind of a shame as I think Happ could be an excellent bounce-back candidate. He didn't have a good year last year but was a 3.44 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.91 FIP, 3.2 K/BB pitcher in 518 innings from 2016-2018.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#32

Posted: December 10, 2019, 10:00 PM Post
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If the Yankees pay a portion of a contract, what impact does that have on the luxury tax? Does the amount they pay still count against it?


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#33

Posted: December 11, 2019, 1:19 AM Post
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Noway


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#34

Posted: December 11, 2019, 5:53 AM Post
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Happ is a negative value player. Unless the Yankees are also attaching Andujar (who would nicely and cheaply fill the hole at 3B for several years) and expect literally nothing in return, forget it.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#35

Posted: December 11, 2019, 7:26 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Happ is a negative value player. Unless the Yankees are also attaching Andujar (who would nicely and cheaply fill the hole at 3B for several years) and expect literally nothing in return, forget it.


I don’t know what ‘negative value’ player means. Take a look around at what’s happening in Major League Baseball. Jordan Lyles a 30 year old journey man with a negative career WAR just got a multi year guarantee with an AAV of 8 million.

Kevin Gausman gets released by Atlanta, picked up by Cincy then non-tendered by the Reds only to sign a 1 year deal for 10 million dollars.

Happ has been a consistent quality starting pitcher in the major leagues for a long time. Like Sonny Gray he didn’t pitch well for the Yankees (although he was fine on the road in 2019 with a 1.19 whip and 3:1 k:bb ratio).

His ‘value’ is likely in the 8-10 million dollar per year window. The Yankees would have plenty of interest in Happ if they’re including 7-8 million dollars in cash, their return won’t be great but that’s not the point. If they send 7 million dollars to a team along with Happ they saved themselves 10 million towards the luxury tax.

The complication is the vesting option. The Yankees can simply not pitch Happ enough and render his option moot. Such a move doesn’t make sense for an acquiring team so that detail likely has to be worked out before Happ will be traded.


Last edited by RoCoBrewfan on December 11, 2019, 7:47 AM, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Change beating to vesting. Probably an autocorrect mistake


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#36

Posted: December 11, 2019, 7:34 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Happ is a negative value player. Unless the Yankees are also attaching Andujar (who would nicely and cheaply fill the hole at 3B for several years) and expect literally nothing in return, forget it.


I don’t know what ‘negative value’ player means. Take a look around at what’s happening in Major League Baseball. Jordan Lyles a 30 year old journey man with a negative career WAR just got a multi year guarantee with an AAV of 8 million.

Kevin Gausman gets released by Atlanta, picked up by Cincy then non-tendered by the Reds only to sign a 1 year deal for 10 million dollars.

Happ has been a consistent quality starting pitcher in the major leagues for a long time. Like Sonny Gray he didn’t pitch well for the Yankees (although he was fine on the road in 2019 with a 1.19 whip and 3:1 k:bb ratio).

His ‘value’ is likely in the 8-10 million dollar per year window. The Yankees would have plenty of interest in Happ if they’re including 7-8 million dollars in cash, their return won’t be great but that’s not the point. If they send 7 million dollars to a team along with Happ they saved themselves 10 million towards the luxury tax.

The complication is the beating option. The Yankees can simply not pitch Happ enough and render his option moot. Such a move doesn’t make sense for an acquiring team so that detail likely has to be worked out before Happ will be traded.


It would basically need to be the same situation as what the Angels did with Zach Cozart yesterday. The Angels gave the Giants their 2019 1st round SS (their #3 overall prospect) just so the Giants would take on Cozart's deal. They are getting next to nothing in return. Yeah, if the Yankees eat some of Happ's contract, then that increases his value. But as it stands, he's set to make $17 million this year, is 38 years old, and has an easily attainable option that will pay him a lot in 2021 as a 39-year-old. He's coming off a terrible season. He has negative value. The Yankees would have to add something of significant value to get a team to take on Happ's contract.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#37

Posted: December 11, 2019, 7:50 AM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Jopal78! said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
Happ is a negative value player. Unless the Yankees are also attaching Andujar (who would nicely and cheaply fill the hole at 3B for several years) and expect literally nothing in return, forget it.


I don’t know what ‘negative value’ player means. Take a look around at what’s happening in Major League Baseball. Jordan Lyles a 30 year old journey man with a negative career WAR just got a multi year guarantee with an AAV of 8 million.

Kevin Gausman gets released by Atlanta, picked up by Cincy then non-tendered by the Reds only to sign a 1 year deal for 10 million dollars.

Happ has been a consistent quality starting pitcher in the major leagues for a long time. Like Sonny Gray he didn’t pitch well for the Yankees (although he was fine on the road in 2019 with a 1.19 whip and 3:1 k:bb ratio).

His ‘value’ is likely in the 8-10 million dollar per year window. The Yankees would have plenty of interest in Happ if they’re including 7-8 million dollars in cash, their return won’t be great but that’s not the point. If they send 7 million dollars to a team along with Happ they saved themselves 10 million towards the luxury tax.

The complication is the beating option. The Yankees can simply not pitch Happ enough and render his option moot. Such a move doesn’t make sense for an acquiring team so that detail likely has to be worked out before Happ will be traded.


It would basically need to be the same situation as what the Angels did with Zach Cozart yesterday. The Angels gave the Giants their 2019 1st round SS (their #3 overall prospect) just so the Giants would take on Cozart's deal. They are getting next to nothing in return. Yeah, if the Yankees eat some of Happ's contract, then that increases his value. But as it stands, he's set to make $17 million this year, is 38 years old, and has an easily attainable option that will pay him a lot in 2021 as a 39-year-old. He's coming off a terrible season. He has negative value. The Yankees would have to add something of significant value to get a team to take on Happ's contract.


Yeah, money. Starting pitching is different than mediocre middle infielders. There’s not enough of the former and too much of the latter. I agree with you that Happ wouldn’t get an AAV or 17 million as a free agent right now. But would he get 8, 9, 10? Probably. The Yankees are only moving him to save money and the return doesn’t matter. There’s no reason for them to include players, only money because teams will become interested in acquiring a starting pitcher the cheaper Happ gets.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#38

Posted: December 11, 2019, 8:18 AM Post
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Guessing there is a really good chance they dump Happ to someone now that they have signed Cole. If they don't they are likely to pay the max luxury tax penalty for going $40mil over. So Happ would cost the Yankees a lot more than $17mil to be on the team and it would also hurt their draft pick placement.


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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#39

Posted: December 11, 2019, 8:20 AM Post
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I think that vesting option will make the Brewers wisely stay away from acquiring Happ. Too risky for certain.

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Offline  Re: J.A. Happ / MLBtraderumors report
#40

Posted: December 11, 2019, 8:54 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
I think that vesting option will make the Brewers wisely stay away from acquiring Happ. Too risky for certain.


I figured he sucked enough last year you could just make him a long man in the bullpen and wait for injury/ineffectiveness by someone else. Wouldn't take much more than a month to make 27 starts an impossible feat. Heck, if he is the 5th guy he will miss starts right off the bat with all the early off days.

The problem is there is almost zero chance he pitches good enough you will want to give a 38 year old pitcher $17mil...it just is not going to happen. Logically he may just take a million or two so there is no drama surrounding it and he can pitch without the games. It only took $500k to have K-Rod rework his insane $17.5mil option in 2011 when we got him.

If you know no team is going to let you pitch in 27 games why not take a little extra cash? No team is letting that vest, not a single one, no matter where he ends up.


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