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Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)

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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#21

Posted: December 17, 2019, 10:19 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
nate82 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol


When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.



A pretty comical take all around.

In 2019, in 527 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL at bats, Josh Bell hit 37 home runs with a .936 OPS

Between 2017-2019, in 1025 CLASS A+ AND BELOW MINOR LEAGUE at bats, Tristen Lutz has hit 35 home runs with a .781 OPS

And Tristen Lutz will not appear on any 2020 Top 100 prospect lists.

In fact, I'm willing to bet that he won't appear in any Top 200 lists.

Not many have been published yet, but he's not listed in Top 200 prospects on this list...

https://prospects365.com/2019/10/21/ray-butlers-2019-end-of-season-top-200-prospects/

I would not be just me and the Pittsburgh Pirates laughing at a Tristen Lutz for Josh Bell trade proposal, but everyone in baseball.


Nice deflect on the over saturation of the 1B/DH market which is what is dragging Bell's and others value down.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#22

Posted: December 17, 2019, 10:20 AM Post
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I hope this isn't taken as piling on but I've always wanted Clancy to be a GM of a team because it would really interesting to see what that team would look like. Listen, we all are not qualified for that position but he has just so many outside the box ideas that it would be interesting to see what it would all look like and how it would function.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#23

Posted: December 17, 2019, 10:21 AM Post
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How much is Archer's contract?

I saw his name and immediately gagged.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#24

Posted: December 17, 2019, 10:23 AM Post
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nate82 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol


When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.


Over saturated with similar talent? Who do you think is out there right now that is on the same level as Josh Bell?


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Online  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#25

Posted: December 17, 2019, 10:25 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
nate82 said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
According the that site, it would take the Pirates almost 2 Josh Bells to land Tristen Lutz! lol


When you take into account the 1B/DH market is over saturated with similar talent it is actually correct.

You can laugh at the value for Bell but the free agent and trade market has more 1B/DH types than there is demand for them. The Pirates will be lucky to get one top 100 prospect for Bell in this market.


Based on my numbers, I see Bell's surplus value being nearly identical to Brice Turang's value, and Turang is probably right on the back end of the top 100.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#26

Posted: December 17, 2019, 10:27 AM Post
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So you seriously think the Pirates would accept a straight up Brice Turang for Josh Bell offer?*


*Clarification Note: Neal Huntington is no longer the Pirates GM.

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Online  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#27

Posted: December 17, 2019, 10:56 AM Post
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So I've been looking at more commentary about Bell from around the net, and there were numerous comments about how uneven he was in last year's breakout campaign.

He slashed .390/.442/.797/1.239...12 HR, 31 RBI in May alone.

He slashed .233/.351/.429/.780...10 HR, 32 RBI after the All-Star break. Nothing wrong with a .780 OPS but, on the other hand, that's nothing special for a first baseman.

The more I read, the more the <2 WAR projections moving forward are justified.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#28

Posted: December 17, 2019, 11:05 AM Post
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JosephC said:
So I've been looking at more commentary about Bell from around the net, and there were numerous comments about how uneven he was in last year's breakout campaign.

He slashed .390/.442/.797/1.239...12 HR, 31 RBI in May alone.

He slashed .233/.351/.429/.780...10 HR, 32 RBI after the All-Star break. Nothing wrong with a .780 OPS but, on the other hand, that's nothing special for a first baseman.

The more I read, the more the <2 WAR projections moving forward are justified.


Yeah, that inconsistency isn't fetching a premium prospect from anyone. Bell is a nice player, but he is tied to 1B. I personally see a lot of similarities to Jesus Aguilar.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#29

Posted: December 17, 2019, 11:08 AM Post
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liveforoctober said:

Over saturated with similar talent? Who do you think is out there right now that is on the same level as Josh Bell?


Any of the FA available right now would get you about the same value as Bell and won't cost a prospect. There is also Smith from the Mets who could give you similar production.

Thames a FA would give you about the same production as Bell at 1B. Encarnacion is another who could give you similar production at 1B. Smoak is another player who can give you similar production. All of these players minus Smith won't cost a prospect and can be had for a similar dollar amount as Bell.

If you want to go further the cost per production is in favor of the FA over a trade for Bell.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#30

Posted: December 17, 2019, 11:13 AM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
So you seriously think the Pirates would accept a straight up Brice Turang for Josh Bell offer?*


*Clarification Note: Neal Huntington is no longer the Pirates GM.


You are looking at this completely wrong.

The value of Bell is at someone outside of a top 100 prospect not if the Pirates would accept that. They obviously will not accept it as they believe the value to them is worth more than what the market is offering.


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Online  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#31

Posted: December 17, 2019, 11:18 AM Post
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After reviewing some arbitration numbers, I've probably credited Bell with about 5 million more than what he'll actually earn. Subtract that and his surplus value goes from 20 million to 25 million. That assumes he's worth 6 WAR (2 WAR per season) over the next 3 years.

Steamer has an interesting projection on Archer. Check out the average bWAR/fWAR for Archer over the last three seasons:
2017 = 3.0
2018 = 1.8
2019 = 0.7
Three year average = 1.8
For some reason, Steamer is projecting Archer as a 3.0 WAR player for 2020. I'm not buying that. I'll take the three year average and project that number for Archer for both 2020 and 2021.

I'd put the surplus values in this trade as follows:

Bell = 25 million
Archer = 12.4 million
Bae = 5.5 million
Total = 42.9 million

Lutz = 9.4 million
Ray = 7.4 million
Total = 16.8 million


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Online  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#32

Posted: December 17, 2019, 11:22 AM Post
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nate82 said:
liveforoctober said:

Over saturated with similar talent? Who do you think is out there right now that is on the same level as Josh Bell?


Any of the FA available right now would get you about the same value as Bell and won't cost a prospect. There is also Smith from the Mets who could give you similar production.

Thames a FA would give you about the same production as Bell at 1B. Encarnacion is another who could give you similar production at 1B. Smoak is another player who can give you similar production. All of these players minus Smith won't cost a prospect and can be had for a similar dollar amount as Bell.

If you want to go further the cost per production is in favor of the FA over a trade for Bell.


How do you determine production? Bell is easily the best option of those. 143 OPS+ for bell


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#33

Posted: December 17, 2019, 11:34 AM Post
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I don't have as much faith in Bell's May/June numbers and I believe he is more somewhere in between what he did from July - September. That puts him just above Thames and others. Cost wise the FA have more value as the production gap to me is not enough to warrant giving up anything more than what it would require to get Thames or Smoak.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#34

Posted: December 17, 2019, 12:03 PM Post
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nate82 said:
I don't have as much faith in Bell's May/June numbers and I believe he is more somewhere in between what he did from July - September. That puts him just above Thames and others. Cost wise the FA have more value as the production gap to me is not enough to warrant giving up anything more than what it would require to get Thames or Smoak.


Ok, so this convo is based off your opinion. You would rather give a reasonable contract to a FA who you think is going to produce similarly vs trading a prospect for a guy who you think is going to produce under his last year's performance. I'm cool with that.

This isn't a conversation about what the actual market is for the guy who finished 16th in all of baseball last year in OPS.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#35

Posted: December 17, 2019, 12:10 PM Post
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nate82 said:
I don't have as much faith in Bell's May/June numbers and I believe he is more somewhere in between what he did from July - September. That puts him just above Thames and others. Cost wise the FA have more value as the production gap to me is not enough to warrant giving up anything more than what it would require to get Thames or Smoak.


Bell is a switch-hitter, which means there is less need to platoon him. Is he as good as the breakout year? No. But I think he can provide Thames-level production.

I think the Brewers could do with Archer what they did with Lyles, Miley, and even Gio to an extent. It is more of a salary gamble than Brett Anderson, but Archer arguably has a higher ceiling.

Then, of course, comes the other part, Ji-Hwan Bae.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... e---000ji-

He's fast, has good OBP skills... and a good hit tool. A bit of a Brice Turang clone, but I like him.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#36

Posted: December 17, 2019, 12:11 PM Post
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Don't see the Prates making this move but it does smell like David up to looking at a trade route


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Online  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#37

Posted: December 17, 2019, 12:48 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
A pretty comical take all around.

I know for many posters there is an initial reaction to scoff at others that are presenting proposals/ideas/reasoning/opinion that we don't agree with, or in some cases think should be "common sense" in baseball terms. Instead of deriding or mocking their stance it would be helpful if more often we focused on moving the conversation forward by sharing our own stances from a variety of different related angles.

For instance here is a hypothetical example of how it can be done...

[Reads Proposal]

Internal Dialogue: That's such a silly proposal.

Public Messaging: I don't think it is realistic in this instance because I think ______ has more/less (circle one) value based on ______. I do/don't (circle one) think the player mentioned would be a good trade target because ______. I think a more feasible proposal to acquire him would be trading players along the lines of ______ and ______.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#38

Posted: January 27, 2020, 3:39 PM Post
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https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1221888432084897794

Do we care to go down this road again?


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#39

Posted: January 27, 2020, 3:46 PM Post
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Depends on how low buying low is, but yes, I would be interested.


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Offline  Re: Deal with the Pirates (Josh Bell / Chris Archer)
#40

Posted: January 27, 2020, 5:10 PM Post
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*gag*gag*gag*

There it again, the Archer stuff just never goes away.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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