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Mets Trade Idea

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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#41

Posted: December 18, 2019, 2:50 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I think looking at the typical reliever trade market, you can't use that Chapman/Torres deal as any sort of example. That one is clearly an outlier of a team completely desperate for a World Series crown overpaying another very well-off team through the nose for a dominant reliever that did, in fact, help they win that championship. That said, that one deal likely lessened the Cubs' championship window, and they are now to the point where they are looking at dismantling after not getting back.

As a Brewer fan, if they trade Hader, I want the most value as possible back. But if we go into it thinking that the Brewers "deserve" a similar return to what the Yankees got for Chapman, we're gonna be disappointed. Teams just aren't that stupid anymore. As far as I'm concerned, Theo lucked himself into that championship.


You are probably right but shouldn't the Dodgers be desperate for a World Series Championship by now?

Seems like if the Brewers fall out of contention before July and decide to move Hader, the Dodgers could certainly give up a ton of young talent to land him if they so choose.


I personally think they should ... and have stated as such, only to be told that "the Dodgers are too smart to do anything like that. They can just throw money at their relief problem and it will eventually go away."

Point is, they've tried that in recent years, and it hasn't worked. We'll see I guess.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#42

Posted: December 18, 2019, 3:01 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
Joey Meyer Bombs said:
I think looking at the typical reliever trade market, you can't use that Chapman/Torres deal as any sort of example. That one is clearly an outlier of a team completely desperate for a World Series crown overpaying another very well-off team through the nose for a dominant reliever that did, in fact, help they win that championship. That said, that one deal likely lessened the Cubs' championship window, and they are now to the point where they are looking at dismantling after not getting back.

As a Brewer fan, if they trade Hader, I want the most value as possible back. But if we go into it thinking that the Brewers "deserve" a similar return to what the Yankees got for Chapman, we're gonna be disappointed. Teams just aren't that stupid anymore. As far as I'm concerned, Theo lucked himself into that championship.


You are probably right but shouldn't the Dodgers be desperate for a World Series Championship by now?

Seems like if the Brewers fall out of contention before July and decide to move Hader, the Dodgers could certainly give up a ton of young talent to land him if they so choose.


I personally think they should ... and have stated as such, only to be told that "the Dodgers are too smart to do anything like that. They can just throw money at their relief problem and it will eventually go away."

Point is, they've tried that in recent years, and it hasn't worked. We'll see I guess.


It can be money or it can be lesser acquisitions. Doolittle and Hudson cost the Nats a lot less than Gavin Lux. Though, go figure, Treinen was one of the pieces in the Doolittle trade.

Regardless, Brad Hand and maybe Andrew Miller are the two I can think of outside of Chapman recently and while Frazier (and Sheffield) were big pieces, I don't know if the Dodgers are willing to go that far. Mejia was highly regarded but it seems like in all of these cases either the guys slightly busted or the GMs didn't value them as much. That said, Frazier, Mejia, and Sheffield all have time to prove something. In Sheffield's case he has barely hit the majors yet. And none of these guys are bad. I just hold Lux in pretty high regard and don't think the Dodgers are the type to try to fix issues that way.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#43

Posted: December 18, 2019, 8:42 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
It’s not that I think McNeil is not worth acquiring. Just wondering if we could do it without Hader?

Turang and Lutz perhaps?


I doubt it. They don't seem particularly motivated to move McNeil; I can't imagine that offer would change their minds.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#44

Posted: December 18, 2019, 9:29 PM Post
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Yeah, I'm leaning towards Hader doesn't get traded at this point. Only teams expecting to compete are going to be interested in acquiring him and they're not going to want to take away from the major league team to get him. Additionally his value is so hard to determine. On the one hand he's arguably the best, most dominant reliever in the game, and an incredible asset to any team that has him. But on the other hand, he's a reliever who's going to max out at 70 IP per year, has been overworked the past two years, is about to get pretty expensive (or at least not cheap) via arbitration, and could fall off a cliff just due to the volatile nature of relievers (the Mets in particular know this first hand after getting Diaz last year). It's going to be very difficult to get another team to value him as much as we think he should be valued, it's a real gamble.

For reference, check out how close Hader's first three years have been compared to Diaz' first three seasons leading into the Met's acquisition of him:

Image

Image

I think the Mets are still a good matchup on a Lowrie/Smith for a bag of balls (maybe Arcia?) type swap at this point. Move Lowrie into the starting 3B spot, Smith into the LH half of the 1B spot, and bump Sogard/Healy into the utility/lottery ticket/emergency depth roles they should be in.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#45

Posted: December 19, 2019, 6:57 AM Post
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I'm going to go the opposite, I see no way we are keeping him this season. His value is at his highest it might ever be.

If we plan to trade him for a haul, this is the time to do it, however, it has to be a haul that will help us big time! We can't settle for the best package offered, we have to dig in and get exactly what we want.


Last edited by turborickey on December 19, 2019, 9:03 AM, edited 1 time in total.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#46

Posted: December 19, 2019, 8:47 AM Post
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turborickey said:
I'm going to go the opposite, I see now way we are keeping him this season. his value is at his highest it might ever be.

If we plan to trade him for a haul, this is the time to do it, however, it has to be a haul that will help us big time! We can't settle for the best package offered, we have to dig in and get exactly what we want.


I'm pessimistic that other teams will be desperate enough during the offseason to overpay for him when they can take a shot with their current guys and/or acquire some FAs and see how they look before giving up someone that would "help us big time" (and likely take away from their major league roster as well). I think the deadline is when teams who have had bullpen issues the first half of the year could get desperate enough to cough up some real talent.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#47

Posted: December 19, 2019, 1:02 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#48

Posted: December 19, 2019, 1:15 PM Post
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KeithStone53151 said:
Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.


Davis at 3rd, Urias at SS, Hiura at 2nd and Smoak at 1st would give the Brewers the worst infield defense in MLB.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#49

Posted: December 19, 2019, 1:18 PM Post
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wallus said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.


Davis at 3rd, Urias at SS, Hiura at 2nd and Smoak at 1st would give the Brewers the worst infield defense in MLB.


The Brewers haven't let perceived defensive shortcomings stand in the way of putting together their ideal lineup in recent seasons. I doubt that is going to start now.


Last edited by Joey Meyer Bombs on December 19, 2019, 1:43 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#50

Posted: December 19, 2019, 1:20 PM Post
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Joey Meyer Bombs said:
wallus said:
KeithStone53151 said:
Thoughts on trading Peralta for JD Davis straight up? I wonder if the Mets would take a chance on his arm.


Davis at 3rd, Urias at SS, Hiura at 2nd and Smoak at 1st would give the Brewers the worst infield defense in MLB.


The Brewers haven't let perceived defensive shortcomings stand in the way of putting together their idea lineup in recent seasons. I doubt that is going to start now.


Yes and no. They had Arcia anchoring them in shifts and protecting Shaw/Mous at 2B. If they go to Urias, who I am excited to see if he can step into the role but apparently is not a wizard...I'm not sure you also want a subpar 3B. Especially when you've just signed Brett Anderson.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#51

Posted: December 19, 2019, 1:55 PM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
I get the impression based on the last couple years, the Brewers seem to think they are capable of helping players improve their infield defense. Think about all the players they've asked to move up the defensive spectrum. Shaw/Moose to 2b, Brad Miller/Cory Spang/Urias/Schoop to SS, helping Hiura at 2b, Ryon Healy probably 3b. I'm probably only grabbing a fraction of players...but Davis is probably a fringy bat for 1b/LF, but if he could play 3b his bat makes him an all-star.

Also with so many teams obsessed with launch angle, GB rate is down considerably...making IF defense proportionally less important.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#52

Posted: December 19, 2019, 2:09 PM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
KeithStone53151 said:
I get the impression based on the last couple years, the Brewers seem to think they are capable of helping players improve their infield defense. Think about all the players they've asked to move up the defensive spectrum. Shaw/Moose to 2b, Brad Miller/Cory Spang/Urias/Schoop to SS, helping Hiura at 2b, Ryon Healy probably 3b. I'm probably only grabbing a fraction of players...but Davis is probably a fringy bat for 1b/LF, but if he could play 3b his bat makes him an all-star.

Also with so many teams obsessed with launch angle, GB rate is down considerably...making IF defense proportionally less important.


This is what I’ve alluded to a couple times this offseason as well. Infield defense is becoming less important and I think that might be the newest trend Stearns is spearheading and giving a shot.

Maybe a Castellanos signing for 3B isn’t out of the realm of possibility! [wink]


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#53

Posted: December 19, 2019, 2:18 PM Post
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RollieTime said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I get the impression based on the last couple years, the Brewers seem to think they are capable of helping players improve their infield defense. Think about all the players they've asked to move up the defensive spectrum. Shaw/Moose to 2b, Brad Miller/Cory Spang/Urias/Schoop to SS, helping Hiura at 2b, Ryon Healy probably 3b. I'm probably only grabbing a fraction of players...but Davis is probably a fringy bat for 1b/LF, but if he could play 3b his bat makes him an all-star.

Also with so many teams obsessed with launch angle, GB rate is down considerably...making IF defense proportionally less important.


This is what I’ve alluded to a couple times this offseason as well. Infield defense is becoming less important and I think that might be the newest trend Stearns is spearheading and giving a shot.

Maybe a Castellanos signing for 3B isn’t out of the realm of possibility! [wink]


Braun can now play third?


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#54

Posted: December 19, 2019, 3:51 PM Post
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RollieTime said:
KeithStone53151 said:
I get the impression based on the last couple years, the Brewers seem to think they are capable of helping players improve their infield defense. Think about all the players they've asked to move up the defensive spectrum. Shaw/Moose to 2b, Brad Miller/Cory Spang/Urias/Schoop to SS, helping Hiura at 2b, Ryon Healy probably 3b. I'm probably only grabbing a fraction of players...but Davis is probably a fringy bat for 1b/LF, but if he could play 3b his bat makes him an all-star.

Also with so many teams obsessed with launch angle, GB rate is down considerably...making IF defense proportionally less important.


This is what I’ve alluded to a couple times this offseason as well. Infield defense is becoming less important and I think that might be the newest trend Stearns is spearheading and giving a shot.

Maybe a Castellanos signing for 3B isn’t out of the realm of possibility! [wink]


This article (which is now two years old, K rate has risen another 1.5% since it was published) shows that defensive opportunities at every position except 1B & 3B have declined markedly (between 18.9% & 27.2%) since 2007 as strikeouts have become more & more prevalent...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/where-defen ... ined-most/


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#55

Posted: December 19, 2019, 3:56 PM Post
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Thanks...good article. I had long surmised that is why Stearns did not value 2B defense and it appears that there is data to back it up.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#56

Posted: December 20, 2019, 3:02 AM Post
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Location: Washburn, WI
sveumrules said:
This article (which is now two years old, K rate has risen another 1.5% since it was published) shows that defensive opportunities at every position except 1B & 3B have declined markedly (between 18.9% & 27.2%) since 2007 as strikeouts have become more & more prevalent...

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/where-defen ... ined-most/


Awesome article, thank you!

wallus said:

Braun can now play third?


Yes he can! And Castellanos can sign with us and go to shortstop!


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#57

Posted: December 20, 2019, 10:36 AM Post
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MLBTR saying that the Indians are showing a lot of interest in Jeff McNeil in any potential Lindor deal, but the Mets aren't willing to deal him.

Probably means he would be out of consideration in any possible Hader deal as well.


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#58

Posted: December 20, 2019, 10:37 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
MLBTR saying that the Indians are showing a lot of interest in Jeff McNeil in any potential Lindor deal, but the Mets aren't willing to deal him.

Probably means he would be out of consideration in any possible Hader deal as well.


Or it means that he is already promised to us in a Hader deal...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#59

Posted: December 20, 2019, 10:55 AM Post
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I forgot about that old GM "promise" thing...

I think the Brewers should ship a low-level prospect to the Mets for Jed Lowrie. He has had big years following years he missed significant playing time. All we take on is the salary, which we have room. While I would ultimately prefer Kyle Seger, I am pretty sure there will be better offers from the Braves, Dodgers, or Nats (whomever loses out on Donaldson) than the Brewers can offer (since the Mariners are looking for prospects and not discards - i.e. Arcia).

JosephC said:
Stearns probably had no interest in getting a C because the Brewers need a C. It makes much more sense to trade for 3B when it's not needed, and then move the other 3B to 2B, then trade for a 2B, but since the 3B is now at 2B, then the new 2B goes to SS


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Offline  Re: Mets Trade Idea
#60

Posted: December 20, 2019, 12:03 PM Post
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xisxisxis said:
He has had big years following years he missed significant playing time.


While I'm fine taking him on as a utility player if getting another player with him, I am definitely not banking on this trend continuing at age 36.

I mean I guess I could understand the theory that if he can rest up his injury for a long time he gets back to his old ways of being a good hitter but this seems like more of random luck when his good seasons happen than some tried and true theory of rest helping him. Also, his best season he's had as a pro came after playing a full season.


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