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Trade with Rockies for 3B help...

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Offline  Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#1

Posted: January 18, 2020, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 4975
Rockies get:
RHP Trey Supak

Brewers get:
IF Daniel Murphy
SS Ryan Vilade

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-21533/

Brewers get Murphy to play 3B and to help out at 2B and 1B
Vilade becomes an option for the future at SS/3B/2B

Supak will give Colorado some pitching depth.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#2

Posted: January 18, 2020, 3:01 PM Post
Posts: 24
I’m not sure Murphy is much of an upgrade over Gyorko at this point


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#3

Posted: January 18, 2020, 3:20 PM Post
Posts: 2005
Location: Madison, WI
That would be a horrible trade for Milwaukee. Murphy gets 8 million this year and then a 6 million dollar buyout in 2021 on a mutual option. So it works out to a 1 year, 14 million dollar contract. Way too much money for a declining offensive player who is probably a train-wreck with the glove at any spot other than 1B.

Not to mention that I'd guess Stearns is probably down to less than 5 million to play with when it comes to the opening day payroll.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#4

Posted: January 18, 2020, 3:20 PM Post
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I don't like to trade pitching especially with the Brew crew.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#5

Posted: January 19, 2020, 12:07 PM Post
Posts: 4975
JosephC said:
That would be a horrible trade for Milwaukee. Murphy gets 8 million this year and then a 6 million dollar buyout in 2021 on a mutual option. So it works out to a 1 year, 14 million dollar contract. Way too much money for a declining offensive player who is probably a train-wreck with the glove at any spot other than 1B.

Not to mention that I'd guess Stearns is probably down to less than 5 million to play with when it comes to the opening day payroll.


Murphy is not the lone acquisition in the deal - Vilade becomes the SS in AA as well, and provides a high-average, high-OBP hitter with some speed who had double figures in doubles, triples, homers, and steals in 2019.

Supak is one of the Crew's pitching prospects, but not the only one.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#6

Posted: January 19, 2020, 12:28 PM Post
Posts: 244
I too, do not like trading pitching... Especially with our limited prospects in the minor leagues.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#7

Posted: January 19, 2020, 1:41 PM Post
Posts: 2005
Location: Madison, WI
clancyphile said:
JosephC said:
That would be a horrible trade for Milwaukee. Murphy gets 8 million this year and then a 6 million dollar buyout in 2021 on a mutual option. So it works out to a 1 year, 14 million dollar contract. Way too much money for a declining offensive player who is probably a train-wreck with the glove at any spot other than 1B.

Not to mention that I'd guess Stearns is probably down to less than 5 million to play with when it comes to the opening day payroll.


Murphy is not the lone acquisition in the deal - Vilade becomes the SS in AA as well, and provides a high-average, high-OBP hitter with some speed who had double figures in doubles, triples, homers, and steals in 2019.

Supak is one of the Crew's pitching prospects, but not the only one.


I'd put a solid role-player prospect grade on Supak which would give him a 5.5 million dollar prospect surplus value on my board. Vilade, I'd probably put him at about #250 on a top 300 list...translates to about 9.4 million dollars in prospect surplus value. The 3.9 million dollar difference is not nearly enough to make me want to bite on a 14 million dollar commitment to Daniel Murphy. I just see Murphy as a rapidly declining offensive player and his defense at 3B would likely be horrible. Steamer is projecting him at 0.3 WAR for 2020 and that seems like a pretty fair number to me.

I do like Vilade and think he could turn out to be a really good player. But that 14 million dollars just can't be ignored.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#8

Posted: January 19, 2020, 4:11 PM Post
Posts: 4975
JosephC said:
I'd put a solid role-player prospect grade on Supak which would give him a 5.5 million dollar prospect surplus value on my board. Vilade, I'd probably put him at about #250 on a top 300 list...translates to about 9.4 million dollars in prospect surplus value. The 3.9 million dollar difference is not nearly enough to make me want to bite on a 14 million dollar commitment to Daniel Murphy. I just see Murphy as a rapidly declining offensive player and his defense at 3B would likely be horrible. Steamer is projecting him at 0.3 WAR for 2020 and that seems like a pretty fair number to me.

I do like Vilade and think he could turn out to be a really good player. But that 14 million dollars just can't be ignored.


I don't think Murphy will be awful offensively, especially as a left-handed hitter in Miller Park. Baseball-Reference predicts an .805 OPS in 2020. Murphy as the starter at third with Sogard and Gyorko on the bench makes the team much better in the aggregate.

And the Crew doesn't just get Murphy - they get Vilade, too.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#9

Posted: January 19, 2020, 4:52 PM Post
Posts: 3905
The problem with the entire notion, quality of the trade aside, is that I doubt the Brewers feel they need any additional help at third at this point.

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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Online  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#10

Posted: January 19, 2020, 7:27 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
JosephC said:
I'd put a solid role-player prospect grade on Supak which would give him a 5.5 million dollar prospect surplus value on my board. Vilade, I'd probably put him at about #250 on a top 300 list...translates to about 9.4 million dollars in prospect surplus value. The 3.9 million dollar difference is not nearly enough to make me want to bite on a 14 million dollar commitment to Daniel Murphy. I just see Murphy as a rapidly declining offensive player and his defense at 3B would likely be horrible. Steamer is projecting him at 0.3 WAR for 2020 and that seems like a pretty fair number to me.

I do like Vilade and think he could turn out to be a really good player. But that 14 million dollars just can't be ignored.


I don't think Murphy will be awful offensively, especially as a left-handed hitter in Miller Park. Baseball-Reference predicts an .805 OPS in 2020. Murphy as the starter at third with Sogard and Gyorko on the bench makes the team much better in the aggregate.

And the Crew doesn't just get Murphy - they get Vilade, too.


Playing Murphy at 3B would be like sticking a broom at 3B and putting a glove on it. Sometimes the broom will catch a line drive right at it but 99% of the time it is going to be a free hit for the other team. Trading for Murphy would be a foolish idea and playing him at 3B might get you checked into the loony bin.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#11

Posted: January 20, 2020, 7:28 AM Post
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82brewcrew82 said:
The problem with the entire notion, quality of the trade aside, is that I doubt the Brewers feel they need any additional help at third at this point.


Yeah, because we have Sogard......DUH!

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#12

Posted: January 20, 2020, 8:07 AM Post
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give him credit for thinking of a trade but not trading a pitcher that we can use in the near future imo.


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Online  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#13

Posted: January 20, 2020, 8:16 AM Post
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I think Nicholas Castellanos would likely be better defensively at 3B than Daniel Murphy at this point in his career. If we are truly going to go full-on train wreck defense, I'd rather have the 27-year-old who is still in his prime with the bat.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#14

Posted: January 20, 2020, 12:41 PM Post
Posts: 4975
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I think Nicholas Castellanos would likely be better defensively at 3B than Daniel Murphy at this point in his career. If we are truly going to go full-on train wreck defense, I'd rather have the 27-year-old who is still in his prime with the bat.


Castellanos would likely require a 5-year deal for at least $15 million per year. I don't think a one-year deal would be something he'd take.

Murphy is only one year for $8 million, with another $6 million for the buyout. If he does well, and takes the mutual option, the 2021 price goes up to $12 million, but if he provides what he did prior to 2018... it''s a steal. And, Vilade comes along in the deal, and he could lock third base down for a fair bit of time after Murphy.

The price aside from the contract - Trey Supak - is one I'd be willing to part with, even with his very good performance since he was acquired with Keon Broxton.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#15

Posted: January 20, 2020, 1:29 PM Post
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turborickey said:
82brewcrew82 said:
The problem with the entire notion, quality of the trade aside, is that I doubt the Brewers feel they need any additional help at third at this point.


Yeah, because we have Sogard......DUH!

I didn't say I agreed with their feelings on the matter...

but it's not like every guy suddenly forgot every piece of advice he gave


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#16

Posted: January 20, 2020, 1:33 PM Post
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clancyphile said:
Castellanos would likely require a 5-year deal for at least $15 million per year. I don't think a one-year deal would be something he'd take.

I don't know, we're starting to hit that "teams are pretty set with their rosters already, I better take what's available to me"/"Stearns' grab bag" time of year for free agents. Ozuna, with draft pick compensation attached to him, may be even more likely to take a one year deal to try again next year without the pick attached, but Castellanos is still young enough where taking a one year "prove it" deal might still be tempting for him at this point if he hasn't been offered anything he likes yet. Neither guy is a great fit with the Brewers right now, but I could see both going for less than expected at this point.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#17

Posted: January 20, 2020, 2:59 PM Post
Posts: 5499
Location: New Berlin, WI
MrAllen said:
clancyphile said:
Castellanos would likely require a 5-year deal for at least $15 million per year. I don't think a one-year deal would be something he'd take.

I don't know, we're starting to hit that "teams are pretty set with their rosters already, I better take what's available to me"/"Stearns' grab bag" time of year for free agents. Ozuna, with draft pick compensation attached to him, may be even more likely to take a one year deal to try again next year without the pick attached, but Castellanos is still young enough where taking a one year "prove it" deal might still be tempting for him at this point if he hasn't been offered anything he likes yet. Neither guy is a great fit with the Brewers right now, but I could see both going for less than expected at this point.


I've felt like those guys were going to go for less than expected before the offseason even began. Especially Ozuna, who has had one very good year in 2017 and been maybe slightly above average aside from that. I think he'll be lucky to see 2/24. Castellanos on the other hand has been a solidly above average hitter for years and had a monster 2nd half with the Cubs. He certainly is getting much better offers, but is probably debating between a 1 year Josh Donaldson deal...and 3/4 year offers for maybe $13-15 million per year. Probably figures if he can post a 900+ OPS season...could get JD Martinez money next offseason with no pick attached.


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Offline  Re: Trade with Rockies for 3B help...
#18

Posted: January 21, 2020, 11:35 AM Post
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82brewcrew82 said:
The problem with the entire notion, quality of the trade aside, is that I doubt the Brewers feel they need any additional help at third at this point.


At least not any lateral moves. If they felt they could get a substantial upgrade they may pull the trigger, but they probably feel they'll get average MLB production from what they have, so any move would have to be for a "needle mover."

But I think you're right. I expect future moves to focus on pitching.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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