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Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning

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Offline  Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#1

Posted: February 14, 2020, 2:43 PM Post
Posts: 47
It might be next offseason or even the next but there is going to be a time when the the Brewers will have to decide to restock the team by trading these two great players. I don't like it but the time will come. But the question I pose today is what do they get in return and will it be enough to reload given our young core players such as Hiura Urias Woodruff Turang Peralta Burnes (looking for a bounceback for the last two) and more. What type of package would it take for the Brewers to trade either one of them?


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#2

Posted: February 14, 2020, 3:22 PM Post
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Soupbone said:
It might be next offseason or even the next but there is going to be a time when the the Brewers will have to decide to restock the team by trading these two great players. I don't like it but the time will come. But the question I pose today is what do they get in return and will it be enough to reload given our young core players such as Hiura Urias Woodruff Turang Peralta Burnes (looking for a bounceback for the last two) and more. What type of package would it take for the Brewers to trade either one of them?


It will probably take more than what teams will be willing to give up especially for Yelich.

Hader is probably the easiest one to trade. An Andrew Miller like return is probably the ceiling for Hader.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#3

Posted: February 14, 2020, 3:41 PM Post
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Yelich's last year under contract currently carries a lot of uncertainty. Once we get to next off-season I don't think [smart] teams are going to make major trades for players whose contracts expire following the 2022 season. There is too much labor unrest, and either a strike or lockout is a real possibility. There is a chance the 2022 season will be significantly shortened or even possibly not occur at all.

My gut feeling is that Yelich will remain with the Brewers until his current contract expires.


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Online  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#4

Posted: February 14, 2020, 6:14 PM Post
Posts: 4780
Just keep with both now that Hader lost his Arb case. Give both the QO if Hader is deserving at that stage still. Maybe the rewards change in the small markets favor more. I think right now considering where the minors stand. The team should stay invested to have a chance at a WS. 3more years of Yelich &Cain. Tear it all down after. Sell Harders last year. Woodruffs last 2 seasons. Burnes &Peralta. Build around Urias and Hiura and whoever else is big in the franchise at that time. I'd play this all out to win these next 3 seasons. And then sell it all off when it ends what you have worth selling that's not long for building around. That may include Lauer. That would be 6years of legit Playoff contending. May only be 1year to reload.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#5

Posted: February 14, 2020, 9:45 PM Post
Posts: 2824
I expect it to be a 2022 off season thing. Yelich netting a top 40 and 2 top 80 prospects. Hader netting something close to Miller's trade.

Thing is we have no idea where this team will be in 2 years. Medina Perez Lutz could be walking their way up the top 100 board preparing to take over the OF. MKE has a lot of interesting pitchers and Kelly Rasmussen could be the new pen firemen.

I'm not concerned about a rebuild tear down. We'll have to see what 2022 looks like. If they think going for it 1 more year and QOs will do, then so be it. If they get a number of guys then and bolster the farm, so be it.

Only thing we know is that they won't be here once they hit FA. That's just the way it is.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#6

Posted: February 15, 2020, 1:07 PM Post
Posts: 5002
TJseven7 said:
I expect it to be a 2022 off season thing. Yelich netting a top 40 and 2 top 80 prospects. Hader netting something close to Miller's trade.

Thing is we have no idea where this team will be in 2 years. Medina Perez Lutz could be walking their way up the top 100 board preparing to take over the OF. MKE has a lot of interesting pitchers and Kelly Rasmussen could be the new pen firemen.

I'm not concerned about a rebuild tear down. We'll have to see what 2022 looks like. If they think going for it 1 more year and QOs will do, then so be it. If they get a number of guys then and bolster the farm, so be it.

Only thing we know is that they won't be here once they hit FA. That's just the way it is.


Agree about the unknowns about where the team is in 2022/2023.

That said, Attanasio has opened the checkbook before. See the Cain signing. See Moose and Gandal. We just don't know where everyone's head and heart will be at that time.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#7

Posted: February 15, 2020, 4:06 PM Post
Posts: 2824
clancyphile said:
TJseven7 said:
I expect it to be a 2022 off season thing. Yelich netting a top 40 and 2 top 80 prospects. Hader netting something close to Miller's trade.

Thing is we have no idea where this team will be in 2 years. Medina Perez Lutz could be walking their way up the top 100 board preparing to take over the OF. MKE has a lot of interesting pitchers and Kelly Rasmussen could be the new pen firemen.

I'm not concerned about a rebuild tear down. We'll have to see what 2022 looks like. If they think going for it 1 more year and QOs will do, then so be it. If they get a number of guys then and bolster the farm, so be it.

Only thing we know is that they won't be here once they hit FA. That's just the way it is.


Agree about the unknowns about where the team is in 2022/2023.

That said, Attanasio has opened the checkbook before. See the Cain signing. See Moose and Gandal. We just don't know where everyone's head and heart will be at that time.


80 mil over 5 for Cain in one thing. 320 mil over 8 for Yelich is quite another. Hader is great but MKE can't afford 15 mil AAV on any pen piece. I don't see 19/1 or 12/1 or 16/5 for a CF as close to the same thing.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#8

Posted: February 16, 2020, 10:48 AM Post

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Re: Hader

You almost need to hope for the perfect storm like the Yankees had when they traded Chapman to the very good and very desperate Cubs to land Gleyber. I’m thinking the Dodgers. Imagine a scenario in late July where Brewers are .500, Dodgers are killing it and Jensen goes down for some reason. You hope to trade Hader then for a haul or at least someone who projects realistically to be a Gleyber Torres type.

That would be ideal, and it isn’t out of realm of possibility that Brewers are .500, Hader is best Reliever in baseball and Dodgers are running away with the west...just need poor performance by Jensen or an injury and the perfect storm may happen.


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Online  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#9

Posted: February 16, 2020, 11:44 AM Post
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Brewers being .500 in late July might not be so dire though. All the teams in our division except the Pirates, might be in that same boat.

If that is the case. you can't sell off one of the pieces that we would NEED to compete from that point on...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#10

Posted: February 16, 2020, 11:53 AM Post
Posts: 5002
turborickey said:
Brewers being .500 in late July might not be so dire though. All the teams in our division except the Pirates, might be in that same boat.

If that is the case. you can't sell off one of the pieces that we would NEED to compete from that point on...


It would depend on how the team trends.

If a couple of key players are gone for the season, and replacements aren't doing well, then maybe you do punt the season and deal Hader.

If the team is trending upwards... then the Crew will be buying, not selling, at the deadline.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#11

Posted: February 16, 2020, 1:30 PM Post
Posts: 2824
clancyphile said:
turborickey said:
Brewers being .500 in late July might not be so dire though. All the teams in our division except the Pirates, might be in that same boat.

If that is the case. you can't sell off one of the pieces that we would NEED to compete from that point on...


It would depend on how the team trends.

If a couple of key players are gone for the season, and replacements aren't doing well, then maybe you do punt the season and deal Hader.

If the team is trending upwards... then the Crew will be buying, not selling, at the deadline.


Maybe that .500 team has Rasmussen and Burnes pushing for a promotion in AAA at that time. If Knebel Phelps Suter Houser (Peralta) are pitching well and you got a few guys in the farm pitching at a high level you don't need to be all in or all out. Especially if the right offer comes along.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#12

Posted: February 16, 2020, 1:41 PM Post
Posts: 5002
TJseven7 said:
clancyphile said:
turborickey said:
Brewers being .500 in late July might not be so dire though. All the teams in our division except the Pirates, might be in that same boat.

If that is the case. you can't sell off one of the pieces that we would NEED to compete from that point on...


It would depend on how the team trends.

If a couple of key players are gone for the season, and replacements aren't doing well, then maybe you do punt the season and deal Hader.

If the team is trending upwards... then the Crew will be buying, not selling, at the deadline.


Maybe that .500 team has Rasmussen and Burnes pushing for a promotion in AAA at that time. If Knebel Phelps Suter Houser (Peralta) are pitching well and you got a few guys in the farm pitching at a high level you don't need to be all in or all out. Especially if the right offer comes along.


Burnes may well click in the rotation - that is the "bold" prediction from MLB.com.

Assuming that prediction is correct, if you will, a rotation of Woodruff, Burnes, Brett Anderson, Lindblom, and Lauer. The young starters are putting up solid numbers in AAA (or AA).

The pen has Hader, Knebel, Suter, Phelps, Peralta, and Houser leading, with Rasmussen, Andrews, QTC, and Perdomo all dominating in AAA.

It does open up the possibilities. The Crew could deal young help for a late-season run, or they could break the young guns in, and set themselves up for a nice 2021-2023 run, giving Yelich the QO.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#13

Posted: February 16, 2020, 1:52 PM Post
Posts: 5523
Location: New Berlin, WI
JackNicholson1974 said:
Re: Hader

You almost need to hope for the perfect storm like the Yankees had when they traded Chapman to the very good and very desperate Cubs to land Gleyber. I’m thinking the Dodgers. Imagine a scenario in late July where Brewers are .500, Dodgers are killing it and Jensen goes down for some reason. You hope to trade Hader then for a haul or at least someone who projects realistically to be a Gleyber Torres type.

That would be ideal, and it isn’t out of realm of possibility that Brewers are .500, Hader is best Reliever in baseball and Dodgers are running away with the west...just need poor performance by Jensen or an injury and the perfect storm may happen.


Jansen doesn't even have to go down for this to happen. Dude is getting old and his stuff is diminishing rapidly. All you need is half a dozen blown saves and a 6 ERA for the Dodgers to get desperate. With the Dodgers, it's certainly possible they decide to go truly allin at the deadline even if Jansen is pitching well. The Mookie move was a pretty desperate move in my opinion. That's a really bad trade for them from a value standpoint unless Price bounces back in a big way...OR...they win the world series in 2020. It wouldn't make sense to do all that and risk your bullpen blowing a key game in the playoffs.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#14

Posted: February 18, 2020, 5:15 PM Post
Posts: 750
Soupbone said:
It might be next offseason or even the next but there is going to be a time when the the Brewers will have to decide to restock the team by trading these two great players. I don't like it but the time will come. But the question I pose today is what do they get in return and will it be enough to reload given our young core players such as Hiura Urias Woodruff Turang Peralta Burnes (looking for a bounceback for the last two) and more. What type of package would it take for the Brewers to trade either one of them?


This was an excellent post by the OP.

Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023.

I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big.

The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason.

I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#15

Posted: February 18, 2020, 5:40 PM Post
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wildcat2237 said:
This was an excellent post by the OP.

Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023.

I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big.

The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason.

I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc.

I think the 2020 payroll is a direct result of money-saving to eventually try and extend Yelich. I won't be surprised if we see some of this again in 2021 as well. Trading Yelich would be bad for Milwaukee baseball business, even if it may be the best thing for Milwaukee Brewer roster construction.


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Online  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#16

Posted: February 18, 2020, 7:04 PM Post
Posts: 4780
wildcat2237 said:
Soupbone said:
It might be next offseason or even the next but there is going to be a time when the the Brewers will have to decide to restock the team by trading these two great players. I don't like it but the time will come. But the question I pose today is what do they get in return and will it be enough to reload given our young core players such as Hiura Urias Woodruff Turang Peralta Burnes (looking for a bounceback for the last two) and more. What type of package would it take for the Brewers to trade either one of them?


This was an excellent post by the OP.

Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023.

I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big.

The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason.

I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc.


Looking at the years, I'd just expect Yelich and Cain to play out their contracts, should Hader still be on the team by then, trade him for 2023. And really just go on a rebuild over 2seasons. But then if our pitchers are working out, I dunno. What if Stearns found a few extensions in Woodruff or Lauer, any of the top3 SPs were counting on in Peralta/Burnes/Houser. This season is probably going to dictate this future. If we grow a number of 2s/3s here suddenly, You're really not rebuilding. But if Lauer turns out as a #3/4 2 of Peralta/Burnes/Houser end up as RPs/#4s at best, The decision to trade Yelich a year early and a full rebuild makes complete sense. We're talking everybody including Woodruff for trade offs. Hiura/Urias at the moment may only be the survivors of the trade offs and that may just be for an extra season depending where the team sits.

Luckily I think the team is going to surprise and the first scenario plays out, having Yelich all 3 seasons, trading Hader his last season and the team just chugging along.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#17

Posted: February 19, 2020, 2:30 AM Post
Posts: 2824
brewcrewdue80 said:
Looking at the years, I'd just expect Yelich and Cain to play out their contracts, should Hader still be on the team by then, trade him for 2023. And really just go on a rebuild over 2seasons. But then if our pitchers are working out, I dunno. What if Stearns found a few extensions in Woodruff or Lauer, any of the top3 SPs were counting on in Peralta/Burnes/Houser. This season is probably going to dictate this future. If we grow a number of 2s/3s here suddenly, You're really not rebuilding. But if Lauer turns out as a #3/4 2 of Peralta/Burnes/Houser end up as RPs/#4s at best, The decision to trade Yelich a year early and a full rebuild makes complete sense. We're talking everybody including Woodruff for trade offs. Hiura/Urias at the moment may only be the survivors of the trade offs and that may just be for an extra season depending where the team sits.

Luckily I think the team is going to surprise and the first scenario plays out, having Yelich all 3 seasons, trading Hader his last season and the team just chugging along.


They could really blow it up massively in the 2022 offseason. Ditto 2023. I think the farm is what decides that.

Small Ashby File Rasmussen Kelly a slew of catchers and OFs (galore... CRod Lutz Bello Gray Ray Perez Medina Ward) could open the window quite a ways.

Even if you never put Houser Peralta in the rotation. Woodruff Lauer are controlled 5 years. Burnes is controlled 5 years. If Burnes settles in and they hit on 2 of these young starters (and I only listed my favorites) they have a chance at a 2023 and 2024 rotation made up of ONLY farm arms and a young trade piece.

That would be something else, that would keep the window open even with Yelich gone. It's going to be hard to keep it open much longer than 6-7 years total (4-5 more) but it's not out of the question.

Then again, they could blow it up massively, let DS retool and stock the farm extremely deep. I honestly think that DS could put together an 80 win team with a 90 mil budget on 1 year fodder fliers and platooners during a massive sell off. Just enough to keep people coming to the park while setting up another run.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#18

Posted: February 20, 2020, 9:38 AM Post
Posts: 47
I am maybe more optimistic than TJ about our starters. I think Burnes and Peralta both become what we hoped last year. Along with Woodruff and Lauer/Hauser that is a potentially really good group. Mix in a couple of those young guys and we could be very happy. Kelly could be the TOR arm we long for. Coach them up and we are in for a good run. Then having traded Yelich and Hader for young bats makes an awesome mix.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#19

Posted: February 20, 2020, 12:46 PM Post
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As long as Stearns is able to add a few good, "controlled" players every season, like he did this year with Urias, Narvaez, and Lauer, and does not get himself bogged down with "albatross" contracts, then I don't see that we will have to go into a full-scale rebuild.

I would guess that Yelich, Hader, and any other future star players who will demand enormous contracts, will get traded prior to becoming free agents. The return on Yelich will be huge, and mostly (or totally) young and controlled. If we trade him after next season, the only guys from our current roster that wouldn't still be controlled (going into 2022) are Holt, Knebel, Anderson, Smoak, Sogard, Pina, Claudio, Phelps, Gyorko, and Braun. Basically, a bunch of the "filler" we brought on this year plus Braun. Since Stearns was able to find these guys this year, then it's likely that he will be able to find similar guys in future years. In other words, without Yelich, we will still have a lot of talent. If we trade him to add more young talent to that core, then we should be fine.

Losing Yelich for nothing would cost us wins in the future. If we can get a bunch of young, controlled talent back in trade, some of those guys will become core pieces going forward. If we could get someone like the Red Sox got in Verdugo and some other good, young talent to stock the minors, we could still remain competitive as long as some of our young guys (Hiura, Urias, etc) continue to progress and Stearns adds a few more young pieces next offseason and can continue to find 1-2 year players like Garcia, Holt, Anderson, Sogard, etc to fill in the roster holes.

I really hope we don't play for a "Yelich window" that would require a multi-year tear-down and rebuild. I think Stearns is trying to build a team that can compete year-in and year-out. Sometimes that means trading away players who have been good for us for a few seasons for a group of players we hope will be good for us for the next few years. It's easy to get attached to players, especially good players. Signing Yelich to a huge deal through his 30's would cripple the franchise, and riding him out to the end of his contract would waste the chance to stock up on a boatload of young talent that we will need to remain competitive going forward.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#20

Posted: February 20, 2020, 2:07 PM Post
Posts: 5002
monty57 said:
As long as Stearns is able to add a few good, "controlled" players every season, like he did this year with Urias, Narvaez, and Lauer, and does not get himself bogged down with "albatross" contracts, then I don't see that we will have to go into a full-scale rebuild.

I would guess that Yelich, Hader, and any other future star players who will demand enormous contracts, will get traded prior to becoming free agents. The return on Yelich will be huge, and mostly (or totally) young and controlled. If we trade him after next season, the only guys from our current roster that wouldn't still be controlled (going into 2022) are Holt, Knebel, Anderson, Smoak, Sogard, Pina, Claudio, Phelps, Gyorko, and Braun. Basically, a bunch of the "filler" we brought on this year plus Braun. Since Stearns was able to find these guys this year, then it's likely that he will be able to find similar guys in future years. In other words, without Yelich, we will still have a lot of talent. If we trade him to add more young talent to that core, then we should be fine.

Losing Yelich for nothing would cost us wins in the future. If we can get a bunch of young, controlled talent back in trade, some of those guys will become core pieces going forward. If we could get someone like the Red Sox got in Verdugo and some other good, young talent to stock the minors, we could still remain competitive as long as some of our young guys (Hiura, Urias, etc) continue to progress and Stearns adds a few more young pieces next offseason and can continue to find 1-2 year players like Garcia, Holt, Anderson, Sogard, etc to fill in the roster holes.

I really hope we don't play for a "Yelich window" that would require a multi-year tear-down and rebuild. I think Stearns is trying to build a team that can compete year-in and year-out. Sometimes that means trading away players who have been good for us for a few seasons for a group of players we hope will be good for us for the next few years. It's easy to get attached to players, especially good players. Signing Yelich to a huge deal through his 30's would cripple the franchise, and riding him out to the end of his contract would waste the chance to stock up on a boatload of young talent that we will need to remain competitive going forward.


Your last paragraph, I think, is a bit off base.

The Brewers could sign Yelich to a 7-year, $225 million extension that wouldn't cripple the franchise.
* $15 million bonus over 2020, 2021, and 2022.
* $210 million over the next 7 years
* $90 million of that is deferred - to be paid out over the 30 years after the extension ($3 million/year)
* That leaves an average salary of $17.143 million over those seven years. Or, slightly above the $16 million AAV that LoCain currently has.

That is a non-albatross deal, and it keeps Yelich in Milwaukee through 2029.


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