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Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning

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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#21

Posted: February 20, 2020, 2:31 PM Post
Posts: 749
clancyphile said:
monty57 said:
As long as Stearns is able to add a few good, "controlled" players every season, like he did this year with Urias, Narvaez, and Lauer, and does not get himself bogged down with "albatross" contracts, then I don't see that we will have to go into a full-scale rebuild.

I would guess that Yelich, Hader, and any other future star players who will demand enormous contracts, will get traded prior to becoming free agents. The return on Yelich will be huge, and mostly (or totally) young and controlled. If we trade him after next season, the only guys from our current roster that wouldn't still be controlled (going into 2022) are Holt, Knebel, Anderson, Smoak, Sogard, Pina, Claudio, Phelps, Gyorko, and Braun. Basically, a bunch of the "filler" we brought on this year plus Braun. Since Stearns was able to find these guys this year, then it's likely that he will be able to find similar guys in future years. In other words, without Yelich, we will still have a lot of talent. If we trade him to add more young talent to that core, then we should be fine.

Losing Yelich for nothing would cost us wins in the future. If we can get a bunch of young, controlled talent back in trade, some of those guys will become core pieces going forward. If we could get someone like the Red Sox got in Verdugo and some other good, young talent to stock the minors, we could still remain competitive as long as some of our young guys (Hiura, Urias, etc) continue to progress and Stearns adds a few more young pieces next offseason and can continue to find 1-2 year players like Garcia, Holt, Anderson, Sogard, etc to fill in the roster holes.

I really hope we don't play for a "Yelich window" that would require a multi-year tear-down and rebuild. I think Stearns is trying to build a team that can compete year-in and year-out. Sometimes that means trading away players who have been good for us for a few seasons for a group of players we hope will be good for us for the next few years. It's easy to get attached to players, especially good players. Signing Yelich to a huge deal through his 30's would cripple the franchise, and riding him out to the end of his contract would waste the chance to stock up on a boatload of young talent that we will need to remain competitive going forward.


Your last paragraph, I think, is a bit off base.

The Brewers could sign Yelich to a 7-year, $225 million extension that wouldn't cripple the franchise.
* $15 million bonus over 2020, 2021, and 2022.
* $210 million over the next 7 years
* $90 million of that is deferred - to be paid out over the 30 years after the extension ($3 million/year)
* That leaves an average salary of $17.143 million over those seven years. Or, slightly above the $16 million AAV that LoCain currently has.

That is a non-albatross deal, and it keeps Yelich in Milwaukee through 2029.


Your scenario counts on Yelich settling for that type of money, even when he sees the $300M plus contracts being handed out by other teams. Plus would he want to deferr that huge amount of money over that great amount of time? More likely than not, he and his agent laugh at the "low-ball" offer and he becomes a FA headed to the highest bidder.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#22

Posted: February 20, 2020, 3:43 PM Post
Posts: 568
Nobody is giving Yelich a 300Mil contract


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#23

Posted: February 20, 2020, 4:07 PM Post
Posts: 2866
clancyphile said:
monty57 said:
As long as Stearns is able to add a few good, "controlled" players every season, like he did this year with Urias, Narvaez, and Lauer, and does not get himself bogged down with "albatross" contracts, then I don't see that we will have to go into a full-scale rebuild.

I would guess that Yelich, Hader, and any other future star players who will demand enormous contracts, will get traded prior to becoming free agents. The return on Yelich will be huge, and mostly (or totally) young and controlled. If we trade him after next season, the only guys from our current roster that wouldn't still be controlled (going into 2022) are Holt, Knebel, Anderson, Smoak, Sogard, Pina, Claudio, Phelps, Gyorko, and Braun. Basically, a bunch of the "filler" we brought on this year plus Braun. Since Stearns was able to find these guys this year, then it's likely that he will be able to find similar guys in future years. In other words, without Yelich, we will still have a lot of talent. If we trade him to add more young talent to that core, then we should be fine.

Losing Yelich for nothing would cost us wins in the future. If we can get a bunch of young, controlled talent back in trade, some of those guys will become core pieces going forward. If we could get someone like the Red Sox got in Verdugo and some other good, young talent to stock the minors, we could still remain competitive as long as some of our young guys (Hiura, Urias, etc) continue to progress and Stearns adds a few more young pieces next offseason and can continue to find 1-2 year players like Garcia, Holt, Anderson, Sogard, etc to fill in the roster holes.

I really hope we don't play for a "Yelich window" that would require a multi-year tear-down and rebuild. I think Stearns is trying to build a team that can compete year-in and year-out. Sometimes that means trading away players who have been good for us for a few seasons for a group of players we hope will be good for us for the next few years. It's easy to get attached to players, especially good players. Signing Yelich to a huge deal through his 30's would cripple the franchise, and riding him out to the end of his contract would waste the chance to stock up on a boatload of young talent that we will need to remain competitive going forward.


Your last paragraph, I think, is a bit off base.

The Brewers could sign Yelich to a 7-year, $225 million extension that wouldn't cripple the franchise.
* $15 million bonus over 2020, 2021, and 2022.
* $210 million over the next 7 years
* $90 million of that is deferred - to be paid out over the 30 years after the extension ($3 million/year)
* That leaves an average salary of $17.143 million over those seven years. Or, slightly above the $16 million AAV that LoCain currently has.

That is a non-albatross deal, and it keeps Yelich in Milwaukee through 2029.


And you keep saying this but if Yelich continues what he's been doing he's going to get 280 mil over 7 years on his next contract.

DEFERRING 90 mil so that we can keep his elite self for 4 more years is bonkers.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#24

Posted: February 21, 2020, 9:15 AM Post
Posts: 568
If some team give a 31yr old OF 300Mil contract, they are just crazy and deserve to have him. Rendon contract is the perfect example of what Yelich will get - 7/$245. Rendon was a yr younger when he signed and when Yelich will sign and plays an elite position. If you offer Yelich a 5/200 contract extension and spread it out over the remaining years of his deal, it ends of being a 8/241.5.

You give him a $20 signing bonus spread out over 4 years
You defer $20 mil 5 each from 2028 - 2031

Base salary is $25 per year.

Yelich gets the 2nd riches contract extension in MLB history is $/yr


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#25

Posted: February 21, 2020, 2:10 PM Post
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Posts: 5756
mlloyd10 said:
If some team give a 31yr old OF 300Mil contract, they are just crazy and deserve to have him. Rendon contract is the perfect example of what Yelich will get - 7/$245. Rendon was a yr younger when he signed and when Yelich will sign and plays an elite position. If you offer Yelich a 5/200 contract extension and spread it out over the remaining years of his deal, it ends of being a 8/241.5.

You give him a $20 signing bonus spread out over 4 years
You defer $20 mil 5 each from 2028 - 2031

Base salary is $25 per year.

Yelich gets the 2nd riches contract extension in MLB history is $/yr


I don't want to say something can't be done, but I find it hard to believe that "Milwaukee Brewers" and "second largest contract in the history of baseball" will ever be mentioned in the same headline unless is it something like "After declining their offer and electing free agency, former Milwaukee Brewer {insert player name} signs second largest contract in the history of baseball with {insert large market team here}"

The Brewers can compete when they have good players signed to below market value deals. I don't think they would have a big chance of success paying someone in their 30's around 25% of their team payroll. Braun was once an MVP-caliber player, and now most people can't wait for his contract to be gone. This year (2020) will be Yelich's age 28 season. We have him under contract through his age 30 season, which is right around the beginning of the "decline phase" of a player's career. Enjoy his prime and let someone else overpay for his decline.

Paying him $5M/year for the four years after that makes it even worse, as that money won't be able to be used to help the team win in 2028-2031. Therefore, that extension may help the Brewers for a while, but has the potential to hurt the franchise for a long time. We've really been lucky that Braun is still as productive as he is. If we sign Yelich to a big extension with deferred money and he happens to be one of those guys who doesn't age well, the deal could hurt the franchise for nearly a decade.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#26

Posted: March 03, 2020, 3:30 PM Post
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Posts: 3434
Location: California
Warning Track Power said:
wildcat2237 said:
This was an excellent post by the OP.

Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023.

I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big.

The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason.

I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc.

I think the 2020 payroll is a direct result of money-saving to eventually try and extend Yelich. I won't be surprised if we see some of this again in 2021 as well. Trading Yelich would be bad for Milwaukee baseball business, even if it may be the best thing for Milwaukee Brewer roster construction.

I am Mark Attanasio.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#27

Posted: March 03, 2020, 3:38 PM Post
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Posts: 5768
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Warning Track Power said:
I am Mark Attanasio.


Why are you so cheap?


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#28

Posted: March 03, 2020, 8:06 PM Post
Posts: 759
Warning Track Power said:
Warning Track Power said:
wildcat2237 said:
This was an excellent post by the OP.

Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023.

I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big.

The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason.

I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc.

I think the 2020 payroll is a direct result of money-saving to eventually try and extend Yelich. I won't be surprised if we see some of this again in 2021 as well. Trading Yelich would be bad for Milwaukee baseball business, even if it may be the best thing for Milwaukee Brewer roster construction.

I am Mark Attanasio.


Nice call. I figured an extension was not in the cards. I also was not aware that Yelich loves Milwaukee so much.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#29

Posted: March 03, 2020, 10:09 PM Post
Posts: 12310
Gotta give Clancy and WTP credit for their insight. This revolving door of an offseason was all about holding on to their star and they managed to pull it off. I still think they weakened the overall roster somewhat to do it. But we'll see.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#30

Posted: March 03, 2020, 10:52 PM Post
Posts: 50
So I started this thread and I was wrong. Great for the Brewers and their fans. I think Hader still gets traded but hope not and we get to watch these guys for a long time.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#31

Posted: March 04, 2020, 1:35 AM Post
Posts: 4844
wildcat2237 said:
Warning Track Power said:
wildcat2237 said:
This was an excellent post by the OP.

Yelich is under contract through 2022. Hader is controlled through 2023.

I personally believe the Brewers are in a Yelich window that will run through 2021. This is why I am not a fan of the reduced 2020 payroll. I think this year and next year are the two "shots" at winning big.

The farm system stinks, and unless some players have Trent Grisham type years in 2020 I think the Brewers will need to tear it down during the 2021-2022 offseason.

I am not sure 1 year of Yelich and 2 years of Hader will be enough to bring in the talent needed for a quick rebuild. Others will also need to be traded, however, I dont want to guess who will be valuable in 2021-2022. It could be Woodruff, Lauer, Urias, Hiura, Peralta, Burnes etc.

I think the 2020 payroll is a direct result of money-saving to eventually try and extend Yelich. I won't be surprised if we see some of this again in 2021 as well. Trading Yelich would be bad for Milwaukee baseball business, even if it may be the best thing for Milwaukee Brewer roster construction.
I am Mark Attanasio.


Nice call. I figured an extension was not in the cards. I also was not aware that Yelich loves Milwaukee so much.


I wonder on the team letting him participate at the NBA dunk contest had any help. The Bucks in general.

Really though he probably loves Milw so much after the experience at Miami with empty stadiums, and I believe somewhat empty stadiums within the division. I wonder how many tickets were sold around LF after the announcement he was going to play there vs RF by CC? Just a really cool time to play for a WI sports team.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#32

Posted: March 04, 2020, 9:01 AM Post
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Posts: 2805
The question will have to be asked if they "saved payroll in 2020 for the extension."

Yelich probably has 5 years of being a dominant player, give or take. We had 3 of them under control for cheap.

So your options were:

1. Take that extra cash and go all-in with superstar Yelich 2020-2022.
2. Have Yelich for 6 extra years at a fair price but know that he's going to be overpaid from 2024-2029 or so.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#33

Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:23 PM Post
Posts: 4844
bill hAll Star said:
The question will have to be asked if they "saved payroll in 2020 for the extension."

Yelich probably has 5 years of being a dominant player, give or take. We had 3 of them under control for cheap.

So your options were:

1. Take that extra cash and go all-in with superstar Yelich 2020-2022.
2. Have Yelich for 6 extra years at a fair price but know that he's going to be overpaid from 2024-2029 or so.



I just don't buy in to that. He's literally better now that a Daniel Murphy who emerged as #2 in Mvp his age 31 season. Or let's take Justin Turner who broke out his age 29 season to an .897OPS. Climbed as high as .945OPS and 8th in MVP at age 32. Age 34 put up an .881OPS and a 3.7BWAR.

What's Yeli got produce to equal the value of his yearly contract? 4.5WAR? He's doing better that those two breakouts at a later age and with the Turner Example, can maintain 4WAR fairly easily in to his age 34season, tbd age 35season. That takes us to 2026.
Nelson Cruz just put up 4.3BWAR age 38. Defying age regression since his first MVP vote getting age 33 year. Encarnacion is still doing it at age 37. Beltre did it consistently til his age 38season. And the thing of all this is, Yelich is coming from a higher OPS than any of these guys put up in a season. Ride this wave without being concerned 5-9 years from now. Brewers win a WS now in any of these 9 seasons with Yelich on the team are we going to refer the extension as too risky? Think of it this way, the best years may still be to come.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#34

Posted: March 04, 2020, 12:46 PM Post
Posts: 5032
JohnBriggs12 said:
Gotta give Clancy and WTP credit for their insight. This revolving door of an offseason was all about holding on to their star and they managed to pull it off. I still think they weakened the overall roster somewhat to do it. But we'll see.


I don't think the roster will be weakened. For me, the question is whether they have deferred enough money to keep the deal closer to LoCain territory over the active portion of the deal or not.

If they do, the window is wide open for the rest of the decade.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#35

Posted: March 04, 2020, 2:02 PM Post
Posts: 1432
Should this be changed to Hader day of reckoning? Just asking


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Online  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#36

Posted: March 04, 2020, 2:15 PM Post
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Posts: 5249
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Should this be changed to Hader day of reckoning? Just asking

He's under team control for 4 seasons. Can't we just enjoy him rather than worrying about what we will do with him in 2 seasons. I know there was rumors of moving him this offseason, but pretty sure ownership is all in the next few seasons by signing Yeli. Would be dumb to dump the best closer in the NL the last 2 seasons.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#37

Posted: March 04, 2020, 3:08 PM Post
Posts: 1432
patrickgpe said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Should this be changed to Hader day of reckoning? Just asking

He's under team control for 4 seasons. Can't we just enjoy him rather than worrying about what we will do with him in 2 seasons. I know there was rumors of moving him this offseason, but pretty sure ownership is all in the next few seasons by signing Yeli. Would be dumb to dump the best closer in the NL the last 2 seasons.



Not if we could get a haul for him. Our minor league system is the WORST baseball. Our market size does not continue to compete with that kind of a business model. The drafter better pick it up or its time to move on or a strategy switch.


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Online  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#38

Posted: March 04, 2020, 4:30 PM Post
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Posts: 5249
KCBrewerfan34 said:
patrickgpe said:
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Should this be changed to Hader day of reckoning? Just asking

He's under team control for 4 seasons. Can't we just enjoy him rather than worrying about what we will do with him in 2 seasons. I know there was rumors of moving him this offseason, but pretty sure ownership is all in the next few seasons by signing Yeli. Would be dumb to dump the best closer in the NL the last 2 seasons.



Not if we could get a haul for him. Our minor league system is the WORST baseball. Our market size does not continue to compete with that kind of a business model. The drafter better pick it up or its time to move on or a strategy switch.

our goal is to win a championship NOT have a top minor league system. can we just see what happens. Hader can be traded in 2 seasons with 2 years of control if we have to.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#39

Posted: March 04, 2020, 7:50 PM Post
Posts: 4844
KCBrewerfan34 said:
[
KCBrewerfan34 said:
Should this be changed to Hader day of reckoning? Just asking

He's under team control for 4 seasons. Can't we just enjoy him rather than worrying about what we will do with him in 2 seasons. I know there was rumors of moving him this offseason, but pretty sure ownership is all in the next few seasons by signing Yeli. Would be dumb to dump the best closer in the NL the last 2 seasons.


Not if we could get a haul for him. Our minor league system is the WORST baseball. Our market size does not continue to compete with that kind of a business model. The drafter better pick it up or its time to move on or a strategy switch.


Yes our minor league system is rated the lowest in baseball. We traded away multiple 1st rd or 2nd picks, Graduated multiple in the last few years. We lost 2? draft picks signing Cain/Grandal. Traded 2 now. Had higher drafted SPs struggle with injuries ever taking off. Meanwhile, have what looks like a handful of guys on the radar that could jump the ranking that is all of 1/2 a season old being the worst after Hiura no longer qualified. Playoffs b2b seasons=better than having a top 15 ranked minor league system. At some point the losses due to upper draft choices will flip to later draft choices that aren't highly thought of. You will also see the International prospects start to rise because the new system favors Milwaukee vs the one not long ago where top Markets were outspending the Marlins payroll acquiring 16-20yr olds. You also gotta admit, Stearns has dealt his share of draft picks to help the ML team at what seems to be high in value vs results they've given the team they traded with. We're in a very good place aside from 1b/3b, that Stearns may have filled 3b in Urias beyond this season for 5more years.

Look at it this way, with team control they have Hiura, Urias, Narvaez, Yelich, all top 100 types, Woodruff, Burnes, Hader, Peralta all top 100 types, Houser not far behind, maybe Lauer even. It's a great start to fill in with where the system sits near graduating depth. I think if Arcia goes down the drain, Turang is rushed up with Urias for 3b(next season again after Super 2) Rasmussen will join the team in the near future someone that misses a top 100 type ranking because he graduated. It's nowhere near dire like it was the last time it was bouncing from worst in MLB. Some point, a Hader trade will happen, but now? He's more valuable for the make up of the 2020 team.


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Offline  Re: Hader/Yelich Day of Reckoning
#40

Posted: March 04, 2020, 10:01 PM Post
Posts: 2866
KCBrewerfan34 said:

Not if we could get a haul for him. Our minor league system is the WORST baseball. Our market size does not continue to compete with that kind of a business model. The drafter better pick it up or its time to move on or a strategy switch.


This farm can stay the worst in baseball if it keeps churning out MLB talent.

Last year it kicked Hiura Grisham Houser into the majors for good. Last year they were in the bottom 3 preseason. Pretty sure there are some top 27 teams who didn't graduate that much to the majors.


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