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2021 Free Agents

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Offline  2021 Free Agents
#1

Posted: September 25, 2020, 5:19 AM Post
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In case you want to start dreaming up and discussing ways for the 2021 Brewers roster to be improved here is a thread to discuss players that will be free agents this winter.

List to review the upcoming free agent class:

2021 Free Agent Tracker (FanGraphs)

FanGraphs also did an article explaining some details of their Free Agent Tracker (Link).

Additional players will be added to this pool as non-tenders occur, and teams or players decline/buyout option years on contracts. As mentioned in the second link, some likely examples of team options being declined include Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Brett Gardner, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Santana while both Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez could opt out of their current deals. If those things occur they would obviously become free agents.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#2

Posted: September 25, 2020, 10:56 AM Post
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I don't see J.D. Martinez opting out but Castellanos is more than likely going to opt out and I would put that one at an 80% chance that he opts out.

Of the free agents that I think the Brewers have a chance at signing I like Turner, Profar, and LeMahieu.

My off season plan:

Profar 3-years $27m
Turner 3-years $57m
Taijuan Walker 6-years $96m (team option for the 5th year option with a buyout of $9m and a mutual option for the 6th year with a buyout of $5m)

Released:
Arcia, Claudio, Peterson and Pina

Options declined:
Braun and Sogard

This should put the payroll after all of the arbitration and pre-arb salaries around $110-115m. This probably won't happen due to COVID and no fans this year but if it is looking like there will be fans next year I wouldn't be surprised if the team goes on a little bit of a spending spree to bring in some excitement for next year especially if this year doesn't end on a high note.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#3

Posted: September 25, 2020, 11:28 AM Post
Posts: 1192
I think its a waste of time to even look at the top free agents because we are more than likely going to be cutting payroll again. Stearns had to go dumpster diving last offseason when we expected normal revenues. With no fans in the stands this franchise is probably taking a substantial loss this season which makes it quite doubtful that we will go on any kind of spending spree.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#4

Posted: September 25, 2020, 11:44 AM Post
Posts: 2501
Location: Madison, WI
brewers888 said:
I think its a waste of time to even look at the top free agents because we are more than likely going to be cutting payroll again. Stearns had to go dumpster diving last offseason when we expected normal revenues. With no fans in the stands this franchise is probably taking a substantial loss this season which makes it quite doubtful that we will go on any kind of spending spree.


I remember all those off-season plans last year that pushed the payroll to 140 million and Attanasio did the complete 180 and cut the opening day payroll by 20 million.

Owners will collectively cry about all the money they lost in 2020 due to COVID-19 (which is a joke, if they were losing money they would have never played the season). Also, free agency is a November/December/January exercise and they will likely have the perfect uncertainty excuse as to not sign players to fair-market type deals.

If I'm doing a Brewers plan for 2021, no way would I project an opening day payroll of over 100 million. Sure, I could easily be wrong and Attanasio might be one of the exceptions of what I think will be a significant league-wide move to slash payrolls. But the most "reasonable" way to approach a true off-season plan for 2021 is to set that team cap at 100 million and work within those parameters.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#5

Posted: September 25, 2020, 1:10 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
I think the OD payroll will be somewhere around $100m. Just feels right given the circumstances.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#6

Posted: September 25, 2020, 2:10 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Owners will collectively cry about all the money they lost in 2020 due to COVID-19 (which is a joke, if they were losing money they would have never played the season).

It's quite possible that they profit on a per-game basis, but need a lot more than 60 games to cover the fixed costs (maintenance, insurance, security, debt repayments, non-team payroll, etc.). They also lost out on the fan revenue, so the per-game profit could be a lot lower than past years, needing even more games to cover fixed costs. Teams have very different revenue amounts from their TV contracts (Yankees vs. Brewers), so those TV contracts minus in-person fan revenue could be starkly different for different teams. They could very well be playing games to try to cover as much of their fixed costs and reduce losses as much as possible.

Profit = (Fixed revenue + variable revenue) - (fixed costs + variable costs).


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#7

Posted: September 25, 2020, 2:12 PM Post
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JosephC said:

I remember all those off-season plans last year that pushed the payroll to 140 million and Attanasio did the complete 180 and cut the opening day payroll by 20 million.

Owners will collectively cry about all the money they lost in 2020 due to COVID-19 (which is a joke, if they were losing money they would have never played the season). Also, free agency is a November/December/January exercise and they will likely have the perfect uncertainty excuse as to not sign players to fair-market type deals.

If I'm doing a Brewers plan for 2021, no way would I project an opening day payroll of over 100 million. Sure, I could easily be wrong and Attanasio might be one of the exceptions of what I think will be a significant league-wide move to slash payrolls. But the most "reasonable" way to approach a true off-season plan for 2021 is to set that team cap at 100 million and work within those parameters.


A majority of those plans were players that shouldn't have been signed at all. Cole and Rendon being the exceptions but Cole wasn't going to be signing with anyone but the Yankees and Rendon was going to sign with whoever put up the most money and years. Neither were an option for the Brewers the other options were Bumgarner, Moustakas, Grandal, Wheeler and Castellanos.

Bumgarner would have been an awful contract for the Brewers and would set the franchise back by 5-10 years. The Moustakas deal would not have been worth it he is already declining rather rapidly. Grandal I would have been OK with but I like Narvaez in the long run over Grandal. Wheeler would have been an OK signing also but he does have some serious injury concerns. Finally Castellanos would have been a great signing but I am not sure how realistic that would have been you would have also had to be fine with moving Braun to 1B or Castellanos would have to of been fine with moving to 1B. Other than Sogard I was fine with who the Brewers signed. I would have preferred someone other than Smoak but I see what the Brewers were trying to do there.

Both Stearns and Mark A. know that they are going to have to make some improvements at 3B, 2B and SS. I think Narvaez will bounce back next year and be the player he was in Seattle. I believe it is going to be a buyers market this off season as there are going to be plenty of options for 2B and 3B. The Cubs are going to have to decide on keeping Bryant or Baez. I believe they are going to go with Baez and will try and trade Bryant as they have Bote at 3B and Rizzo locked up for a few more years at 1B. Bryant doesn't really have a position for the Cubs and I doubt Bryant will want to play DH as it will limit his market in free agency.

The biggest FA at 3B in Turner will be 36 years old and he is probably looking at deal closer to what Aramis Ramirez signed with the Brewers. Take inflation into account and subtract a bit due to this season being at a lower revenue for teams and next year being an unknown and you are looking at a $15-18m a year type of a contract. I don't see a team going beyond 3-years for Turner while LeMahieu and La Stella might get 4 or 5 year deals max at about the same per year. I think LeMahieu gets a contract of 5-years $80m and returns to the Yankees but at that price he is definitely in the signable category for the Brewers.

There are a lot of options out there in FA this upcoming off season that won't cost a fortune to get. There are definitely more bargain players who will be available in free agency for the Brewers to go out and get. Players like Semien, Profar, Cesar Hernandez, La Stella and others will all be available at reasonable prices. There is just a glut of players that could come in and help the Brewers at key needs next off season. You keep Gyorko and then sign one of Semien, Profar, Hernandez or La Stella and then add someone like Turner and you are not breaking the bank. I expect the Brewers payroll to be around $110m next year especially with Braun more than likely not coming back. The Brewers are going to want to replace him with someone the fans could get behind and I think someone like Turner and to a lesser extent LeMahieu could be that guy.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#8

Posted: September 25, 2020, 2:21 PM Post
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nate82 said:
I don't see J.D. Martinez opting out but Castellanos is more than likely going to opt out and I would put that one at an 80% chance that he opts out.

Of the free agents that I think the Brewers have a chance at signing I like Turner, Profar, and LeMahieu.

My off season plan:

Profar 3-years $27m
Turner 3-years $57m
Taijuan Walker 6-years $96m (team option for the 5th year option with a buyout of $9m and a mutual option for the 6th year with a buyout of $5m)

Released:
Arcia, Claudio, Peterson and Pina

Options declined:
Braun and Sogard

This should put the payroll after all of the arbitration and pre-arb salaries around $110-115m. This probably won't happen due to COVID and no fans this year but if it is looking like there will be fans next year I wouldn't be surprised if the team goes on a little bit of a spending spree to bring in some excitement for next year especially if this year doesn't end on a high note.


This would be a great offseason and would definitely get me excited for next year, but after going cheap last offseason without COVID, I can't imagine Mark A spending over $100M this year.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#9

Posted: September 25, 2020, 2:54 PM Post
Posts: 2501
Location: Madison, WI
Guarantees:
Cain = 16 million (17 million but 1 million deferred)
Yelich = 14 million
Garcia = 10.5 million
Lindblom = 2.75 million
Suter = 1.5 million
Peralta = 1 million
Total = 45.75 million

Arbitration (I don't claim to be an expert on arbitration estimates):
Hader = 5.9 million estimate
Woodruff = 4 million estimate (looks like he's Super Two, could use an expert to help me with this estimate)
Narvaez = 3.27 million estimate
Arcia = 2.95 million estimate
Claudio = 2 million guess (Brewers decline and bring him back at lower price, just like last year)
Knebel = no offer
Total = 18.12 million

Buyouts
Braun = 4 million
Gyorko = 1 million (could easily look to bring him back at lower price)
Sogard = 0.5 million
Guessing Gamel is also out (no buyout), but another that might be brought back at a lower price?
Total = 5.5 million

So Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Lindblom, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Woodruff, Narvaez, Arcia, Claudio equal 11. So that's 15 more minimum salary guys to fill out a 26 man roster. 563k is minimum but some 1 and 2 year guys will get paid a bit more. Let's just assume 600k each to fill out the roster, that would be-
Total = 9 million

Grand total without Braun = 78.37 million

Looks like about 21-22 million to spend if the payroll is 100 million. Fair estimate?


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#10

Posted: September 25, 2020, 2:57 PM Post
Posts: 2501
Location: Madison, WI
LouisEly said:
Teams have very different revenue amounts from their TV contracts (Yankees vs. Brewers), so those TV contracts minus in-person fan revenue could be starkly different for different teams.


That is an excellent point that I hadn't thought about. Makes me think it's pretty likely there is another Brewer payroll reduction in 2021.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#11

Posted: September 25, 2020, 3:01 PM Post
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JosephC said:
Guarantees:
Cain = 16 million (17 million but 1 million deferred)
Yelich = 14 million
Garcia = 10.5 million
Lindblom = 2.75 million
Suter = 1.5 million
Peralta = 1 million
Total = 45.75 million

Arbitration (I don't claim to be an expert on arbitration estimates):
Hader = 5.9 million estimate
Woodruff = 4 million estimate (looks like he's Super Two, could use an expert to help me with this estimate)
Narvaez = 3.27 million estimate
Arcia = 2.95 million estimate
Claudio = 2 million guess (Brewers decline and bring him back at lower price, just like last year)
Knebel = no offer
Total = 18.12 million

Buyouts
Braun = 4 million
Gyorko = 1 million (could easily look to bring him back at lower price)
Sogard = 0.5 million
Guessing Gamel is also out (no buyout), but another that might be brought back at a lower price?
Total = 5.5 million

So Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Lindblom, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Woodruff, Narvaez, Arcia, Claudio equal 11. So that's 15 more minimum salary guys to fill out a 26 man roster. 563k is minimum but some 1 and 2 year guys will get paid a bit more. Let's just assume 600k each to fill out the roster, that would be-
Total = 9 million

Grand total without Braun = 78.37 million

Looks like about 21-22 million to spend if the payroll is 100 million. Fair estimate?


Without any sure answers at either 1B or 3B, I imagine Gyorko will be back next year at $4.5 million. So knock it down to roughly $17 million. Gonna still need a 1B or 3B, a SS if Arcia is non-tendered (perhaps Urias takes this spot), at least one starting pitcher, and a couple pen arms more than likely (unless they really like what guys like Topa and Feyereisen have shown). Also need a bench spot or two.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#12

Posted: September 25, 2020, 4:23 PM Post
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Urias has not done to prove he a full time player at this point.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#13

Posted: September 25, 2020, 7:54 PM Post
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Posts: 6497
Location: Phoenix, AZ
JosephC said:
Guarantees:
Cain = 16 million (17 million but 1 million deferred)
Yelich = 14 million
Garcia = 10.5 million
Lindblom = 2.75 million
Suter = 1.5 million
Peralta = 1 million
Total = 45.75 million

Arbitration (I don't claim to be an expert on arbitration estimates):
Hader = 5.9 million estimate
Woodruff = 4 million estimate (looks like he's Super Two, could use an expert to help me with this estimate)
Narvaez = 3.27 million estimate
Arcia = 2.95 million estimate
Claudio = 2 million guess (Brewers decline and bring him back at lower price, just like last year)
Knebel = no offer
Total = 18.12 million

Buyouts
Braun = 4 million
Gyorko = 1 million (could easily look to bring him back at lower price)
Sogard = 0.5 million
Guessing Gamel is also out (no buyout), but another that might be brought back at a lower price?
Total = 5.5 million

So Cain, Yelich, Garcia, Lindblom, Suter, Peralta, Hader, Woodruff, Narvaez, Arcia, Claudio equal 11. So that's 15 more minimum salary guys to fill out a 26 man roster. 563k is minimum but some 1 and 2 year guys will get paid a bit more. Let's just assume 600k each to fill out the roster, that would be-
Total = 9 million

Grand total without Braun = 78.37 million

Looks like about 21-22 million to spend if the payroll is 100 million. Fair estimate?


I don't think the team takes into account the buyouts as part of the years payroll maybe they do but I wouldn't as those are already sunk costs.

Gyorko is already at a reduced cost you are not going to get much for what the Brewers are paying Gyorko right now. I think the Brewers will offer on Knebel even if it is to just trade him for something though they may not get enough for him. He still maybe cheaper than a free agent RP.

Arcia I believe is gone unless they work out a deal. Claudio might be back but I doubt it.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#14

Posted: September 25, 2020, 9:26 PM Post
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I'm guessing this upcoming offseason goes like last offseason. We'll sit in the weeds, wait to see gets left behind, and sign up a few bargains to fill the many holes in this club. Doubt we'll see a big signing - not with so many question marks.

Sadly, there won't be any impact players from the minors coming up. I'm more comfortable with the pitching staff than the hitters. Hitters have just struggled. The thing we are going to have to hope happens is good players having bad years rebound (Narvaez, Yelich, Garcia), and young hitters mature and figure some stuff out (Hiura, Urias). But that still leaves a lot of holes in the lineup.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#15

Posted: September 25, 2020, 9:58 PM Post
Posts: 5781
brewmann04 said:
Urias has not done to prove he a full time player at this point.



He's 23 years old. Very few 23 year old players have not proven they can play. Sometimes you just have to give a guy the job and hope for the best when you're a small market team and you have multiple holes to plug.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#16

Posted: September 25, 2020, 10:34 PM Post
Posts: 5781
nate82 said:
I don't see J.D. Martinez opting out but Castellanos is more than likely going to opt out and I would put that one at an 80% chance that he opts out.

Of the free agents that I think the Brewers have a chance at signing I like Turner, Profar, and LeMahieu.

My off season plan:

Profar 3-years $27m
Turner 3-years $57m
Taijuan Walker 6-years $96m (team option for the 5th year option with a buyout of $9m and a mutual option for the 6th year with a buyout of $5m)

Released:
Arcia, Claudio, Peterson and Pina

Options declined:
Braun and Sogard

This should put the payroll after all of the arbitration and pre-arb salaries around $110-115m. This probably won't happen due to COVID and no fans this year but if it is looking like there will be fans next year I wouldn't be surprised if the team goes on a little bit of a spending spree to bring in some excitement for next year especially if this year doesn't end on a high note.



I like Turner and Profar...but do you think Walker is worth that type of investment? That seems like a pretty risky proposition. Even this year he has a 4.60 FIP...

I wonder what Springer is going to get in free agency. If he signs with the Astros...I'd think they'd almost certainly let Brantley walk as they've already got about 120 committed to 7 players next year.

He obviously doesn't fill one of the big holes we have in the IF, but he's a guy who hits for a high avg and may be cheap relative to his production based on his injury history.
Plug him into the #2 hole. Yelich, Cain, Garcia, Brantley in the OF/DH....if Brantley could be had for a 2-3 year deal at a reasonable rate, I'd love to see him @3/45.

It'll be interesting to see how aggressive the Brewers are in free agency though.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#17

Posted: September 26, 2020, 3:05 AM Post
Posts: 924
nate82 said:
I don't see J.D. Martinez opting out but Castellanos is more than likely going to opt out and I would put that one at an 80% chance that he opts out.

Of the free agents that I think the Brewers have a chance at signing I like Turner, Profar, and LeMahieu.

My off season plan:

Profar 3-years $27m
Turner 3-years $57m
Taijuan Walker 6-years $96m (team option for the 5th year option with a buyout of $9m and a mutual option for the 6th year with a buyout of $5m)

Released:
Arcia, Claudio, Peterson and Pina

Options declined:
Braun and Sogard

This should put the payroll after all of the arbitration and pre-arb salaries around $110-115m. This probably won't happen due to COVID and no fans this year but if it is looking like there will be fans next year I wouldn't be surprised if the team goes on a little bit of a spending spree to bring in some excitement for next year especially if this year doesn't end on a high note.


You want to give Profar a career .238/.318 a whopping $9M per year?? Walker who has thrown 64 total innings in the last 3 years $16M per year for 6 years?? Turner who will be 36 next year $19M?? Maybe you are being fatuous because Stearns would have to be out of his mind to offer $44M per year for those three guys. The Brewers aren't the cubs who can just burn through money.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#18

Posted: September 26, 2020, 3:24 AM Post
Posts: 924
brewers888 said:
I think its a waste of time to even look at the top free agents because we are more than likely going to be cutting payroll again. Stearns had to go dumpster diving last offseason when we expected normal revenues. With no fans in the stands this franchise is probably taking a substantial loss this season which makes it quite doubtful that we will go on any kind of spending spree.


I don't see Stearns dumpster diving after the disaster he had this year with the multitude of journeymen and an offense (25th in BA - 22nd in OBP - 23rd in OPS - 24th in Runs - second worst in all baseball in strikeouts - 3rd worst in grounding into DPs) that has stunk since it started. I think he looks to trades to fill holes and signs one mid-level FA. Only time will tell.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#19

Posted: September 26, 2020, 7:04 AM Post
Posts: 12655
brewmann04 said:
Urias has not done to prove he a full time player at this point.


Very true. That trade might haunt this franchise for the next 5 years.


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Offline  Re: 2021 Free Agents
#20

Posted: September 26, 2020, 7:17 AM Post
Posts: 12655
HiAndTight said:
brewmann04 said:
Urias has not done to prove he a full time player at this point.



He's 23 years old. Very few 23 year old players have not proven they can play. Sometimes you just have to give a guy the job and hope for the best when you're a small market team and you have multiple holes to plug.


Generally the good ones show something when they get to the big leagues. No way he's earned an every day job for 2021. He certainly hasn't shown he's better than Arcia either defensively or offensively and a .321 career slugging percentage doesn't play at 3B. He's more likely to start next year in San Antonio. I think Sogard is a better hitter right now.


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