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Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted

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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#21

Posted: October 10, 2020, 9:05 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
Jopal78! said:
Which of course brings us back to Urias (and this topic). Only bad teams plug prospects in as regulars before they're close to ready. Thus, when trading for Urias the Brewers likely viewed him more as a finished product than raw talent. Yet, he couldn't beat out Arcia, a player they've been trying to replace since 2018. With legitimate questions about his offensive ability, Urias only profiles at SS, so Milwaukee seems set at that position.


When the Brewers acquired Urias he was 22 with 300 MLB plate appearances...no one is a finished product at age 22 with 300 plate appearances, so I don't see why the Brewers would have viewed him as one.

You keep mentioning that he couldn't beat our Arcia, when did this competition occur?


Also the aforementioned broken hamate bone and Covid diagnosis.

He basically had no spring training at all. He is not a flop by any stretch of the imagination.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#22

Posted: October 10, 2020, 9:14 AM Post
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When have the Brewers stated they have been trying to replace Arcia since 2018?

If anyone has had a solid hold on a position on this team it is Arcia. He has been allowed to be one of the worst offensive players in MLB without truly being challenged by anyone to overtake his position.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#23

Posted: October 10, 2020, 10:14 AM Post
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History doesn't really give any concrete information regarding how successful a Korean-born player will perform in MLB after going through the posting system. It just hasn't happened very often. Hyun-jin Ryu has been a hit when on the mound, but he's also been hurt a lot. Jung-ho Kang was also pretty good before getting his leg smashed. On the other hand, Byung-ho Park was a massive flop for the Twins.

The thing I wonder about Ha-Seong Kim is if the defensive aspect is real. He's won multiple gold gloves, but is that like in America where gold glove awards tend to be based more on reputation (and sometimes flat out ignorance) than actual performance? If he really can field, a team still can get some value out of him if he plays at a plus-plus level at the shortstop position even if he under-performs with the bat.

Even in a market where I think owners will sit on money and use COVID-19 as the excuse, I would still think earning the right to bid on Kim would run a minimum of 15 million dollars. The last guy through the Korean posting system, Byung-ho Park, cost the Twins 12.85 million for the right to negotiate (to the Korean team) and then Park got a 4 year, 12 million dollar deal on top of that. So that was a 24.85 million dollar investment for the Twins. When Ryu was posted, the Dodgers paid 25.7 million to negotiate and then another 6 years, 36 million to Ryu. No idea what it will eventually cost to get Kim in the upcoming market, but I'm guessing that when you add the fee that goes to the Korean team, that it will be too rich for the Brewers to be involved.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#24

Posted: October 10, 2020, 11:02 AM Post
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There have been some changed fairly recently, IIRC the posting fee is tied to the size of the contract. So we're unlikely to see those $20m+ posting fees anymore. Still, it appears even the Yankees will be crying poor this offseason, so the bidding might not be very fierce.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#25

Posted: October 10, 2020, 11:25 AM Post
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turborickey said:
When have the Brewers stated they have been trying to replace Arcia since 2018?

If anyone has had a solid hold on a position on this team it is Arcia. He has been allowed to be one of the worst offensive players in MLB without truly being challenged by anyone to overtake his position.


I stand corrected, since 2019...

SS Orlando Arcia: The Brewers had Arcia on the trade market all offseason and again at the Aug. 31 deadline.... Journal Sentinel


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#26

Posted: October 12, 2020, 6:29 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
I stand corrected, since 2019...

SS Orlando Arcia: The Brewers had Arcia on the trade market all offseason and again at the Aug. 31 deadline.... Journal Sentinel

Craig Counsell insinuated that Luis Urias was the shortstop of the future in September (in bold below).

This is an excerpt from the Milwaukee-Journal Sentinel article on September 9th and includes the following quotes from Counsell:

"He’s played well defensively," manager Craig Counsell said. "Probably shortstop is the position he’s played the most and is most comfortable at. Our starters are as ground-ball oriented as any rotation in the big leagues, so good defense from our infield is really critical to us having success and I think Luis has been playing really nice defense."

Counsell went on to say, "he’s a shortstop, and ultimately I think that’s where you’ll see him in the future, is shortstop."


It seems like the writing is on the wall a bit for Arcia’s future with the team. I do think Arcia showed real improvements this year which could certainly continue to trend in the right direction, but I don’t get the sense that opportunity will come with the Brewers. I’m fine with it because I don’t think you can start the 2021 season with both Arcia and Urias filling starting infield positions.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#27

Posted: October 12, 2020, 7:43 AM Post
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At the end of last season David Stearn’s pretty much hung out the SS position to dry, which as we know, was mostly Arcia in 2019.

I’m guessing they really didn’t want Arcia starting and probably didn’t want him on the team in all honesty. Of course the FA market didn’t work out and we simply scooped up Urias to give some competition and possibly take over.

Last year he was only slightly over $2mil, next year he will see a decent raise. If that number goes over $4mil I wonder if they may just cut bait and not have him on the team next year.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#28

Posted: October 12, 2020, 12:06 PM Post
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From FanGraphs:

Ha-seong Kim Has Big MLB Aspirations and Projections (by Dan Szymborski)


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#29

Posted: October 12, 2020, 1:18 PM Post
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Regardless of current talent on the roster, if you can "buy" a top-100 prospect I think you have to try. We emptied the farm with trades over the last few years and this is one way to buy a 1st round draft pick. And one that is less risk since he would be already at AA or AAA equivalent competition.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#30

Posted: October 12, 2020, 2:27 PM Post
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Sign him and put him at 3rd base.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#31

Posted: October 12, 2020, 3:03 PM Post
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So, do we have any inkling as to what it would take to sign this Kim guy? I'm sure it is very unlikely that we'll get involved, but just curious as to what we think it would take? Seems likely that an Arcia trade could be likely this winter. But, you'd then have Urias filling in at SS. In an ideal world, you'd sign Kim, move Urias to 2B and then have Hiura in the DH role (or maybe have him work some at 1B this winter so that he can become more versatile).


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#32

Posted: October 12, 2020, 3:46 PM Post
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madtownhawk said:
So, do we have any inkling as to what it would take to sign this Kim guy? I'm sure it is very unlikely that we'll get involved, but just curious as to what we think it would take? Seems likely that an Arcia trade could be likely this winter. But, you'd then have Urias filling in at SS. In an ideal world, you'd sign Kim, move Urias to 2B and then have Hiura in the DH role (or maybe have him work some at 1B this winter so that he can become more versatile).


I wouldn't mind Urias at 2B with Kim at SS but that still leaves a hole at 3B. I would assume Kim would eat up all of what you get in savings for trading away Arcia or even just dropping Arcia. Assuming Arcia gets traded or released that is about $4m in savings for the Brewers. I am going to assume Kim will get more than $4m and put his figure at a maximum of $15m a season and the minimum at $9m a season. So he should get something like 5-years $60-75m. I don't believe he will get more than that less is possible but definitely not more. I think Kim might be the whole off season budget assuming the Brewers keep Hader and reduce payroll. If the Brewers trade Hader there is probably enough room in the free agency budget to get Kim and Profar maybe even LaStella depending on the market for LaStella. I believe LaStella gets a nice contract this offseason around $10-15m a year.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#33

Posted: October 12, 2020, 3:55 PM Post
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nate82 said:
madtownhawk said:
So, do we have any inkling as to what it would take to sign this Kim guy? I'm sure it is very unlikely that we'll get involved, but just curious as to what we think it would take? Seems likely that an Arcia trade could be likely this winter. But, you'd then have Urias filling in at SS. In an ideal world, you'd sign Kim, move Urias to 2B and then have Hiura in the DH role (or maybe have him work some at 1B this winter so that he can become more versatile).


I wouldn't mind Urias at 2B with Kim at SS but that still leaves a hole at 3B. I would assume Kim would eat up all of what you get in savings for trading away Arcia or even just dropping Arcia. Assuming Arcia gets traded or released that is about $4m in savings for the Brewers. I am going to assume Kim will get more than $4m and put his figure at a maximum of $15m a season and the minimum at $9m a season. So he should get something like 5-years $60-75m. I don't believe he will get more than that less is possible but definitely not more. I think Kim might be the whole off season budget assuming the Brewers keep Hader and reduce payroll. If the Brewers trade Hader there is probably enough room in the free agency budget to get Kim and Profar maybe even LaStella depending on the market for LaStella. I believe LaStella gets a nice contract this offseason around $10-15m a year.


I don't know why you keep pushing Profar and there is no way we should ever pay LaStella 10 million or more per season.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#34

Posted: October 12, 2020, 5:08 PM Post
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brewers888 said:

I don't know why you keep pushing Profar and there is no way we should ever pay LaStella 10 million or more per season.


Because Profar is a good target for the Brewers and he fits the Stearns mold of players he goes after.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#35

Posted: October 12, 2020, 6:49 PM Post
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Signing players like Profar is why we were one of the worst offenses in baseball.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#36

Posted: October 12, 2020, 8:01 PM Post
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Profar is a switch hitter that has a strikeout rate among the very best in the league, can play all of the infield positions as well as the corner outfield, and is at the peak of the aging curve where plenty of players have their career years. If they could get him on a short-term deal then Jurickson Profar isn’t a bad gamble. I’d certainly rather have him on the roster than Gamel next year.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#37

Posted: October 13, 2020, 2:12 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
Profar is a switch hitter that has a strikeout rate among the very best in the league, can play all of the infield positions as well as the corner outfield, and is at the peak of the aging curve where plenty of players have their career years. If they could get him on a short-term deal then Jurickson Profar isn’t a bad gamble. I’d certainly rather have him on the roster than Gamel next year.


Profar is a .238/.317 career player who played well in a shortened season. He projects to be more expensive than LaStella if you are using 2020 numbers. He is way too expensive for what he brings to the table for a team strapped for cash. Stearns can't afford even one flyer if payroll is being cut, and Profar would be a huge gamble.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#38

Posted: October 13, 2020, 2:21 AM Post
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nate82 said:
madtownhawk said:
So, do we have any inkling as to what it would take to sign this Kim guy? I'm sure it is very unlikely that we'll get involved, but just curious as to what we think it would take? Seems likely that an Arcia trade could be likely this winter. But, you'd then have Urias filling in at SS. In an ideal world, you'd sign Kim, move Urias to 2B and then have Hiura in the DH role (or maybe have him work some at 1B this winter so that he can become more versatile).


I wouldn't mind Urias at 2B with Kim at SS but that still leaves a hole at 3B. I would assume Kim would eat up all of what you get in savings for trading away Arcia or even just dropping Arcia. Assuming Arcia gets traded or released that is about $4m in savings for the Brewers. I am going to assume Kim will get more than $4m and put his figure at a maximum of $15m a season and the minimum at $9m a season. So he should get something like 5-years $60-75m. I don't believe he will get more than that less is possible but definitely not more. I think Kim might be the whole off season budget assuming the Brewers keep Hader and reduce payroll. If the Brewers trade Hader there is probably enough room in the free agency budget to get Kim and Profar maybe even LaStella depending on the market for LaStella. I believe LaStella gets a nice contract this offseason around $10-15m a year.


How in the world do you believe the Brewers could sign Kim ($approx $65M PLUS about $11M in fees to the Korean team)? Then you think there would be room for Profar and LaStella too? The Crew is likely cutting payroll and probably won't have room to aquire any of those guys if their salary demands go beyond the $7-8M range.


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Offline  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#39

Posted: October 13, 2020, 10:25 AM Post
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wntrtxn21 said:

How in the world do you believe the Brewers could sign Kim ($approx $65M PLUS about $11M in fees to the Korean team)? Then you think there would be room for Profar and LaStella too? The Crew is likely cutting payroll and probably won't have room to aquire any of those guys if their salary demands go beyond the $7-8M range.


Because I am using Hader's future arbitration numbers to be replaced by LaStella's and Profar's.


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Online  Re: Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to be Posted
#40

Posted: October 14, 2020, 7:34 AM Post
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Eye Black said:
Profar is a switch hitter that has a strikeout rate among the very best in the league, can play all of the infield positions as well as the corner outfield, and is at the peak of the aging curve where plenty of players have their career years. If they could get him on a short-term deal then Jurickson Profar isn’t a bad gamble. I’d certainly rather have him on the roster than Gamel next year.

Who would you rather have, Ben Gamel for 2 mllion or Profar for at least 8 million?


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