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Lorenzo Cain

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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#21

Posted: December 05, 2020, 9:55 AM Post
Posts: 186
Second to Arcia? We know that's not a great thing.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#22

Posted: December 05, 2020, 10:06 AM Post
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Entering 2020 Cain was projected for a 92 OPS+, I'd imagine that will fall slightly just on account of getting a year older. Looking back on recent seasons for CF with plus defense & offense in that neighborhood I found...

2019 Victor Robles | 91 wRC+ | +8.5 DEF | 2.5 WAR
2018 Ender Inciarte | 90 wRC+ | +9.5 DEF | 3.0 WAR
2018 Jackie Bradley Jr | 90 wRC+ | +10.1 DEF | 2.8 WAR
2017 Byron Buxton | 92 wRC+ | +12.0 DEF | 3.6 WAR
2017 Kevin Pillar | 86 wRC+ | +7.7 DEF | 2.0 WAR
2017 Manuel Margot | 90 wRC+ | +7.8 DEF | 1.9 WAR
2016 Leonys Martin | 89 wRC+ | +6.4 DEF | 2.4 WAR

...if Cain is healthy for 2021, I'd imagine his season ends up looking something like those.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#23

Posted: December 05, 2020, 11:44 AM Post
Posts: 4038
I wonder if Mark can be convinced to do a Cain plus money trade for a real prospect?

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#24

Posted: December 05, 2020, 12:13 PM Post
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3and2Fastball said:
I wonder if Mark can be convinced to do a Cain plus money trade for a real prospect?


I wonder if another team can be convinced to do a Cain plus money for a REAL prospect?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#25

Posted: December 05, 2020, 12:49 PM Post
Posts: 5910
JohnBriggs12 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
There's no point in moving Cain. Your only looking at saving money. Team isnt going to take that money saved and apply it to another contract. Should expect a great season coming for him. Should easily be as healthy as he's ever been. What CF is out there that you want roaming CF in his place? Tyrone Taylor? A decent Batting Cain season with his defense makes him one of the best CF in the game.


I think you are overlooking the fact that he'll be 35 in April and essentially hasn't played since the end of 2019 when he wasn't very good. It's a big stretch to think he returns close to his 2018 form. Sure he had a lot of minor aches and pains in 2019, but what guarantee is there that he won't incur those same kind of aches and pains at 35? Cain is one of many huge question marks on this team.

Winning a GG means you're no good? At least when you are deserving.

Let's check statcast:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-p ... itting-mlb

Seems his years in 2018 and 2019 were fairly identical. His expected batting average as you see is top 10 zone. Was he unlucky? I notice the one big decline was his speed. Should he have beat out more inf grounders? I do recall he had his share of nicks and bruises with that stellar OF Defense, that must have affected his speed down 1b line.
2020 off to a great statcast start. I don't get why more players arent looked at via this statcast site. If you're just not familiar with it, explore.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#26

Posted: December 05, 2020, 9:22 PM Post
Posts: 160
Location: Wauwatosa, WI
wntrtxn21 said:
JohnBriggs12 said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
There's no point in moving Cain. Your only looking at saving money. Team isnt going to take that money saved and apply it to another contract. Should expect a great season coming for him. Should easily be as healthy as he's ever been. What CF is out there that you want roaming CF in his place? Tyrone Taylor? A decent Batting Cain season with his defense makes him one of the best CF in the game.


I think you are overlooking the fact that he'll be 35 in April and essentially hasn't played since the end of 2019 when he wasn't very good. It's a big stretch to think he returns close to his 2018 form. Sure he had a lot of minor aches and pains in 2019, but what guarantee is there that he won't incur those same kind of aches and pains at 35? Cain is one of many huge question marks on this team.


Cains 2019 numbers would have been 2nd best on the entire team in 2020.

By what measure? It doesn't look like his 2019 would have been close to number 2 on the 2020 team... I say this as somebody who very much believes that Cain will be a solid hitter once again in 2021, but his 2019 was really not good. wRC+ of 83 would have been 7th (only using players with 100+ PA's in 2020) his OPS of .700 would have been 7th as well.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#27

Posted: December 05, 2020, 10:33 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
Entering 2020 Cain was projected for a 92 OPS+, I'd imagine that will fall slightly just on account of getting a year older. Looking back on recent seasons for CF with plus defense & offense in that neighborhood I found...

2019 Victor Robles | 91 wRC+ | +8.5 DEF | 2.5 WAR
2018 Ender Inciarte | 90 wRC+ | +9.5 DEF | 3.0 WAR
2018 Jackie Bradley Jr | 90 wRC+ | +10.1 DEF | 2.8 WAR
2017 Byron Buxton | 92 wRC+ | +12.0 DEF | 3.6 WAR
2017 Kevin Pillar | 86 wRC+ | +7.7 DEF | 2.0 WAR
2017 Manuel Margot | 90 wRC+ | +7.8 DEF | 1.9 WAR
2016 Leonys Martin | 89 wRC+ | +6.4 DEF | 2.4 WAR

...if Cain is healthy for 2021, I'd imagine his season ends up looking something like those.


So we could get the same production cheaper without being locked in as long?


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#28

Posted: December 05, 2020, 11:32 PM Post
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trwi7 said:
sveumrules said:
Entering 2020 Cain was projected for a 92 OPS+, I'd imagine that will fall slightly just on account of getting a year older. Looking back on recent seasons for CF with plus defense & offense in that neighborhood I found...

2019 Victor Robles | 91 wRC+ | +8.5 DEF | 2.5 WAR
2018 Ender Inciarte | 90 wRC+ | +9.5 DEF | 3.0 WAR
2018 Jackie Bradley Jr | 90 wRC+ | +10.1 DEF | 2.8 WAR
2017 Byron Buxton | 92 wRC+ | +12.0 DEF | 3.6 WAR
2017 Kevin Pillar | 86 wRC+ | +7.7 DEF | 2.0 WAR
2017 Manuel Margot | 90 wRC+ | +7.8 DEF | 1.9 WAR
2016 Leonys Martin | 89 wRC+ | +6.4 DEF | 2.4 WAR

...if Cain is healthy for 2021, I'd imagine his season ends up looking something like those.


So we could get the same production cheaper without being locked in as long?


It's possible. All we'd have to do is clear Cain's salary & acquire someone who projects similarly.

Given the circumstances, that seems unlikely, so I thought it might be more useful to try & figure out what Lorenzo's 2021 could maybe look like.

If he does end up coming in around 2 WAR that would be pretty much right in line with his salary.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#29

Posted: December 06, 2020, 11:02 PM Post
Posts: 2898
It's funny how conditioned we are as Brewers fans to think that after one middling year, anyone that's older and makes good money = bad contract. If Cain produces like he's capable of -- or at least close -- he's not overpaid except by traditional small-market standards (and Tampa Bay standards, which is pretty much the square root of any normal small market payroll figure).

Based on RollieTime's post-non-tender deadline payroll projections, we've still got money left to spend to get up to the low end of the payroll budget sizes folks are conjecturing -- and that's with Lorenzo's money already factored in. So it's not like his contract is hurting this team and keeping it from making other needed moves. . . . Yet, if we dumped him, we lose a Gold Glove CF and a (very likely) above-average bat, which would make MIL that much less of a desirable FA landing spot and thus rendering moving Cain counterproductive toward the end moving him would be hoping to achieve.

With Braun gone, Cain's one of the main remaining veteran clubhouse leaders & glue guys that a team in transition that's trying to stay a playoff contender needs. Many folks like to poo-poo the notion of intangibles, leadership, and anything else you can't measure numerically between the lines, but I'm a firm believer that guys like that matter. Cain's a pro, Cain's a defensive wizard, and Cain's won a ring. I want him in our clubhouse and in CF. Hopefully his bat again justifies me wanting him hitting in the top half of the lineup again, too.


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Offline  Re: Lorenzo Cain
#30

Posted: December 11, 2020, 12:11 AM Post
Posts: 5885
MNBrew said:
It's funny how conditioned we are as Brewers fans to think that after one middling year, anyone that's older and makes good money = bad contract. If Cain produces like he's capable of -- or at least close -- he's not overpaid except by traditional small-market standards (and Tampa Bay standards, which is pretty much the square root of any normal small market payroll figure).

Based on RollieTime's post-non-tender deadline payroll projections, we've still got money left to spend to get up to the low end of the payroll budget sizes folks are conjecturing -- and that's with Lorenzo's money already factored in. So it's not like his contract is hurting this team and keeping it from making other needed moves. . . . Yet, if we dumped him, we lose a Gold Glove CF and a (very likely) above-average bat, which would make MIL that much less of a desirable FA landing spot and thus rendering moving Cain counterproductive toward the end moving him would be hoping to achieve.

With Braun gone, Cain's one of the main remaining veteran clubhouse leaders & glue guys that a team in transition that's trying to stay a playoff contender needs. Many folks like to poo-poo the notion of intangibles, leadership, and anything else you can't measure numerically between the lines, but I'm a firm believer that guys like that matter. Cain's a pro, Cain's a defensive wizard, and Cain's won a ring. I want him in our clubhouse and in CF. Hopefully his bat again justifies me wanting him hitting in the top half of the lineup again, too.



Agreed. There's obviously some uncertainty with Cain...but he had one "down" year in which he put up 3 WAR and then his other season with the Brewers he was 7th in MVP voting.

I'm not exactly sure how we could get that same value without being locked in as long. Certainly, at this point, that's not an option(if people think the Indians will have trouble finding a team who wants Lindor's contract....). And at the time he was signed, most believed it was a good deal.

So we've had him for two years thus far, he's put up 9.7 WAR and he was banged up in one of the two years. He also brings a lot of enthusiasm and leadership to the team...something I never placed much value on until the last couple years when we had it...and then when we were lacking last season and this team had no personality or energy.


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