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Darvish?

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Offline  Darvish?
#1

Posted: December 24, 2020, 7:47 AM Post
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Posts: 6267
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Yeah I know it would be a in the division trade but Darvish would look good in a Brewers uniform but I don't believe the Brewers have the prospects to make this trade.

Current rumors are that the Padres have shown the most interest and that actually scares me as the Cubs could receive a few good prospects which will help their rebuild out. Maybe Darvish's contract will bring down his value a little bit but I am not sure that it will bring it down enough in the current market that is starting pitching starved after Bauer. I would prefer Snell over Darvish if I were the Padres but I am assuming the Padres don't want to include Gore or Abrams in a trade for a SP so Darvish makes more sense here.

Something like Hassell, Weathers and Wilcox sounds about right for Darvish. Would be a minor overpay by the Padres but I think they will have to pay a premium because of the lack of top tier starting pitching in free agency this year.

I think for the Brewers to make a trade it is something like Turang, Feliciano, Small and Kelly which would be an extreme overpay for Darvish and wouldn't be worth it.


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#2

Posted: December 24, 2020, 8:33 AM Post
Posts: 862
nate82 said:
Yeah I know it would be a in the division trade but Darvish would look good in a Brewers uniform but I don't believe the Brewers have the prospects to make this trade.

Current rumors are that the Padres have shown the most interest and that actually scares me as the Cubs could receive a few good prospects which will help their rebuild out. Maybe Darvish's contract will bring down his value a little bit but I am not sure that it will bring it down enough in the current market that is starting pitching starved after Bauer. I would prefer Snell over Darvish if I were the Padres but I am assuming the Padres don't want to include Gore or Abrams in a trade for a SP so Darvish makes more sense here.

Something like Hassell, Weathers and Wilcox sounds about right for Darvish. Would be a minor overpay by the Padres but I think they will have to pay a premium because of the lack of top tier starting pitching in free agency this year.

I think for the Brewers to make a trade it is something like Turang, Feliciano, Small and Kelly which would be an extreme overpay for Darvish and wouldn't be worth it.


I think Darvish and the $59M he is owed over he next 3 years is going to be way, way out of the Brewers' price range.


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#3

Posted: December 24, 2020, 8:41 AM Post
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Yeah I’d rather go after a guy like Snell who’s younger and much cheaper.


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#4

Posted: December 24, 2020, 9:15 AM Post
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Looks like Yu is projected for a 120 ERA+ over 150 IP which works out to 3.2 WAR for 2021.

Quick & dirty you're trading for about 9 projected WAR over the three years, which probably puts Darvish's surplus value somewhere around a top 50ish guy or two top 100ish guys plus filler?

Any team giving up prospect capital for a 34-36 year old pitcher with a significant injury history & 59 million price tag is certainly assuming a fair amount of risk.


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#5

Posted: December 24, 2020, 9:29 AM Post
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Hard pass. No desire to help a division rival out by dumping a bad contract (especially the back half of a contract for a 30+year old player) and giving them prospects. No desire to take on an old pitcher at $20M/year. Many better options out there than this.


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#6

Posted: December 24, 2020, 3:58 PM Post
Posts: 2398
Location: Madison, WI
I agree that Darvish would look great in a Brewer uniform but I think everyone knows that finances make this a complete impossibility.

Generally I'm the biggest skeptic when it comes to older players with an injury history, but have to admit I kind of like Darvish over the next three seasons.

I never bought the tipping pitches claim during his time with the Dodgers. To me it looked like he was having some major mechanical issues but all those problems seemed to be solved at the beginning of 2019. He's been pretty great over the last couple of years. He ran into long ball trouble in 2019 but has an abnormally high HR/FB% (22.8), outside of that the stat sheet looks top-notch. 254 2/3 innings, 3.39 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 4.6 K/BB ratio. xFIP in 2019 was 3.39 and was 2.82 in 2020.

Looking at the Pitch Info statistics, he had his all-time highest velocity on his four-seam fastball (96.2) in 2020, but also threw it less than he ever has during his MLB career (15.5%). What is amazing is that Pitch Info has with 6 different pitches being thrown at least 5% of the time (slider, four-seam fastball, curveball, sinker, splitter, cutter). He has the Greinke look to me...a guy with enough movement and a deep enough selection of pitches who is a pretty decent bet to get it done even if his velocity sinks to the 90 MPH territory (Grenike was down to 88.2 MPH last year and still posted a 2.80 FIP and 3.51 xFIP).

If I was a big-market team, I'd definitely be interested in Darvish.


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#7

Posted: December 24, 2020, 4:31 PM Post
Posts: 12511
No Darvish, but Tyler Chatwood is an intriguing FA and in the Brewer price range.


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#8

Posted: December 24, 2020, 4:34 PM Post
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JohnBriggs12 said:
No Darvish, but Tyler Chatwood is an intriguing FA and in the Brewer price range.


Should this be in blue?

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Darvish?
#9

Posted: December 24, 2020, 7:35 PM Post
Posts: 1119
nate82 said:
Yeah I know it would be a in the division trade but Darvish would look good in a Brewers uniform but I don't believe the Brewers have the prospects to make this trade.

Current rumors are that the Padres have shown the most interest and that actually scares me as the Cubs could receive a few good prospects which will help their rebuild out. Maybe Darvish's contract will bring down his value a little bit but I am not sure that it will bring it down enough in the current market that is starting pitching starved after Bauer. I would prefer Snell over Darvish if I were the Padres but I am assuming the Padres don't want to include Gore or Abrams in a trade for a SP so Darvish makes more sense here.

Something like Hassell, Weathers and Wilcox sounds about right for Darvish. Would be a minor overpay by the Padres but I think they will have to pay a premium because of the lack of top tier starting pitching in free agency this year.

I think for the Brewers to make a trade it is something like Turang, Feliciano, Small and Kelly which would be an extreme overpay for Darvish and wouldn't be worth it.


I don’t want Darvish but I might be intrigued by a package like that for Hader.


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