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Wilson Contreras

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Offline  Wilson Contreras
#1

Posted: December 29, 2020, 2:21 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
He's being shopped by the Cubs. Could add a middle-of-the-order bat and I'm guessing not have to give up much in return as it looks like they want salary dump. Either way, partner him with Narvaez and you should have plenty of production from that position. He does have a little bit of experience in LF and 1B as well to make him a bit more well-rounded of an option.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#2

Posted: December 29, 2020, 2:35 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
He's being shopped by the Cubs. Could add a middle-of-the-order bat and I'm guessing not have to give up much in return as it looks like they want salary dump. Either way, partner him with Narvaez and you should have plenty of production from that position. He does have a little bit of experience in LF and 1B as well to make him a bit more well-rounded of an option.


Not sure how you can say Wilson Contreras and salary dump in the same sentence but here we are. He will only be making ~$6m in 2021 which is a rather small amount for his talent level. Not including his 2020 season he has been about a 3 WAR player lets say he regresses a bit and is only a 2 WAR player in no way is Contreras a salary dump. Contreras and Rizzo are the top two for the Cubs in value.

A trade for Contreras on the Brewers side would look something like this.

Cubs receive:
SS Turang
LHP Kelly
LHP Ashby

Brewers receive:
Contreras

I wouldn't be surprised if a team like the Yankees or the Red Sox stepped in and offered something better to the Cubs. Contreras will not be a salary dump that is just not going to happen.


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#3

Posted: December 29, 2020, 5:08 PM Post
Posts: 26750
Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#4

Posted: December 29, 2020, 6:15 PM Post
Posts: 1049
adambr2 said:
Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.


I think you're right that the return price for Contreras would be high. I really would hate to see them lose two of their best prospects for a catcher.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#5

Posted: December 29, 2020, 6:59 PM Post
Posts: 1576
Location: Ohio
I have to believe the ChiCubs would be looking for a catcher back in the trade package since they just dealt a catcher with Darvish to SDP


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#6

Posted: December 29, 2020, 8:41 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.


Man, it would suck to see Feliciano and Turang as Cubs in the future...

That would really suck.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#7

Posted: December 29, 2020, 9:28 PM Post
Posts: 26750
turborickey said:
adambr2 said:
Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.


Man, it would suck to see Feliciano and Turang as Cubs in the future...

That would really suck.


Of course. But it would suck a lot less if Contreras helped fix the offense and we won the division the next couple years and made deep playoff runs. He's a really good player and the offense as constructed last year wasn't nearly good enough. Got to give something to get something.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#8

Posted: December 29, 2020, 10:17 PM Post
Posts: 10256
Aren’t inter-division off-season trades pretty rare?

I just don’t remember many trades involving major league pieces between the Brewers and the Cubs/Cards/Reds/Pirates ........trading deadline deals when one team is out of it sure......but just don’t think it is at all likely that Cubs will trade him within the division.......unless of course we overpaid.

As always I could be wrong......but I will be surprised if he ends up in the NL central if they move him.


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#9

Posted: December 29, 2020, 10:22 PM Post
Posts: 26750
markedman5 said:
Aren’t inter-division off-season trades pretty rare?

I just don’t remember many trades involving major league pieces between the Brewers and the Cubs/Cards/Reds/Pirates ........trading deadline deals when one team is out of it sure......but just don’t think it is at all likely that Cubs will trade him within the division.......unless of course we overpaid.

As always I could be wrong......but I will be surprised if he ends up in the NL central if they move him.


I too doubt that he goes to the Brewers or any NL Central team, but I've always thought the whole "don't trade him to a division rival" thing is dumb. Just take the best offer you can get. If the Cubs are rebuilding anyway, what do they care what Contreras does for us the next 2 years?


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#10

Posted: December 30, 2020, 12:16 PM Post
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It may not be a “salary dump” with Contreras. His value will never be higher as each game he plays takes him closer to free agency. I’m also sure the Cubs have don their due diligence and approached their core players about extensions and the ones who intend to go year to year and/or test free agency will likely be traded.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#11

Posted: December 30, 2020, 12:30 PM Post
Posts: 1388
Hoyer says the shopping of Contreras is fictional.


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#12

Posted: December 30, 2020, 1:45 PM Post
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I don't want to give any of our top prospects to the Cubs.

Having them rub it in with our guys for a decade if they pan out just sickens me.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#13

Posted: December 30, 2020, 2:30 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#14

Posted: December 30, 2020, 3:11 PM Post
Posts: 26750
Brew4U said:
Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.


Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can.

I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something.

I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years.


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#15

Posted: December 30, 2020, 3:21 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.


Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can.

I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something.

I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years.


I agree with this 100%. You can't automatically assume that a guy like Turang is future perennial all-star. You weigh that possibility and your own talent evaluation and decide whether that's worth giving up for the player you get in return. Stearns and co. have rarely if ever given up a guy that really haunts us in the way you fear.


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#16

Posted: December 30, 2020, 3:34 PM Post
Posts: 26750
PeaveyFury said:
adambr2 said:
Brew4U said:
Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.


Agreed. IMO Turang is going to be a bust and we should sell while we still can.

I'm higher on Feliciano, but you have to give something to get something.

I'm not concerned about the low possibility of either one of these guys being a stud for the Cubs in 5 to 7 years enough to outweigh passing on 2 years of an All-Star catcher. I think being an average major league starter is on the higher end of where I expect either of these prospects to be in a few years.


I agree with this 100%. You can't automatically assume that a guy like Turang is future perennial all-star. You weigh that possibility and your own talent evaluation and decide whether that's worth giving up for the player you get in return. Stearns and co. have rarely if ever given up a guy that really haunts us in the way you fear.


I think the difficulty of a prospect even having a productive MLB career, much less becoming a star, is often underestimated. Look no further than Brinson/Diaz/Harrison/Yamamoto. Truthfully, it was probably even on the low probability side that all would make it to the big leagues, which they all did. But it goes to show how much difference there is between a scouting report and what actually happens.

"Future 30/30 player" sounds impressive in a prospect evaluation, but there's a big difference between that and having it actually happen.

We've finally struck gold with a few pitchers in recent years, but it took years of churning out Eric Arnetts, Jed Bradleys, Taylor Jungmanns, and many others.

Of course, there's always a chance you gave up the next Burnes or Woodruff. So you weigh that carefully in your risk/reward analysis and as you say, Stearns has done well in not giving up anyone who proved later to be a pivotal loss.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#17

Posted: December 30, 2020, 5:13 PM Post
Posts: 12888
adambr2 said:
turborickey said:
adambr2 said:
Yeah, Contreras is arguably worth more than Darvish, surplus value wise. They aren't dealing him without getting a decent return. Turang + Feliciano is probably in the ballpark of a fair swap.


Man, it would suck to see Feliciano and Turang as Cubs in the future...

That would really suck.


Of course. But it would suck a lot less if Contreras helped fix the offense and we won the division the next couple years and made deep playoff runs. He's a really good player and the offense as constructed last year wasn't nearly good enough. Got to give something to get something.


And the Brewers have other legit catcher prospects than Feliciano too


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#18

Posted: December 30, 2020, 6:35 PM Post
Posts: 26750
For some retrospective, here is a top 20 Brewer prospect list from 2015.

1) Orlando Arcia
2) Tyrone Taylor
3) Monte Harrison
4) Clint Coulter
5) Taylor Jungmann
6) Devin Williams
7) Taylor Williams
8) Tyler Wagner
9) Kodi Medeiros
10) Jorge Lopez
11) Wei Chung Wang
12) David Goforth
13) Victor Roache
14) Gilbert Lara
15) Jason Rogers
16) Kyle Wren
17) Miguel Diaz
18) Jacob Gatewood
19) Tyler Cravy
20) Jed Bradley

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/ ... s-for-2015

Of this entire list, only Orlando Arcia has turned out to be an everyday starter, and not a good one. There is one single name from this list -- Devin Williams, that would suck to see on another roster. One. Other than that, it's a whose who of flameouts, bench players, and one year filler back end bullpen arms.

And even Williams didn't emerge until this season.

These guys are way, way more miss than hit.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#19

Posted: December 30, 2020, 7:18 PM Post
Posts: 1475
I wouldn't be interested in any of the swaps proposed on here. It's also not just about the prospects vs Contreras, you also need to take the opportunity cost of the ~$6m (And probably $8-9m at least in 2022) Contreras is due. So is two years of Contreras going to be worth more to the Brewers than the potential 12 years of Turang + Feliciano? Reasonable people can disagree, and we're all just making more or less informed guesses, but a strong case can be made for the trade just looking at it that way. However, the $6m + $8m needs to factor in too. So assuming that money is there (There would be no trade either if it wasn't), I think Brewers get more out of spending that on 1B and 3B while holding on to their prospects. Even with Narvaez' struggles with the bat, Brewers put up above average production at C, and are likely to do so again. Whereas right now, Urias and Vogelbach are the corner IF starters, backed up by, I guess, Lucas Erceg, Mark Mathias, Dustin Peterson and Zach Green. Now if we could expect the Brewers to have $15m or more to spend, then I might have a different opinion as you could strengthen both areas. But with what seems like tight pursestrings, I think it'd be a mistake to use what little money there is on Contreras. And this is from the perspective of not being very high on Turang and Feliciano. If one was to think it more likely than not that they're average starters or better, the idea would fall even sooner.

I've also realised that I generally find myself not liking many trades for players with 2 years of control remaining. Seems to me like the asking price is rarely all that much less than for 3+ years, and you not only get fewer games from the player, but also pay more on average. I much prefere more longer term trades even if it costs, or opportunistic rentals. The inbetween doesn't seem all that great most of the time.


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Online  Re: Wilson Contreras
#20

Posted: December 30, 2020, 7:28 PM Post
Posts: 26750
Lathund said:
I wouldn't be interested in any of the swaps proposed on here. It's also not just about the prospects vs Contreras, you also need to take the opportunity cost of the ~$6m (And probably $8-9m at least in 2022) Contreras is due. So is two years of Contreras going to be worth more to the Brewers than the potential 12 years of Turang + Feliciano? Reasonable people can disagree, and we're all just making more or less informed guesses, but a strong case can be made for the trade just looking at it that way. However, the $6m + $8m needs to factor in too. So assuming that money is there (There would be no trade either if it wasn't), I think Brewers get more out of spending that on 1B and 3B while holding on to their prospects. Even with Narvaez' struggles with the bat, Brewers put up above average production at C, and are likely to do so again. Whereas right now, Urias and Vogelbach are the corner IF starters, backed up by, I guess, Lucas Erceg, Mark Mathias, Dustin Peterson and Zach Green. Now if we could expect the Brewers to have $15m or more to spend, then I might have a different opinion as you could strengthen both areas. But with what seems like tight pursestrings, I think it'd be a mistake to use what little money there is on Contreras. And this is from the perspective of not being very high on Turang and Feliciano. If one was to think it more likely than not that they're average starters or better, the idea would fall even sooner.

I've also realised that I generally find myself not liking many trades for players with 2 years of control remaining. Seems to me like the asking price is rarely all that much less than for 3+ years, and you not only get fewer games from the player, but also pay more on average. I much prefere more longer term trades even if it costs, or opportunistic rentals. The inbetween doesn't seem all that great most of the time.


As you say, reasonable people can disagree but Contreras seems like a lot more of a sure thing for the cost than anything we'll get in free agency for the price. You quoted $14-15M for 2 years of Contreras which is probably right .

We spent I believe roughly that amount trying to shore up 1B and 3B just last season between Smoak, Sogard, Morrison, Holt and Gyorko and generally ended up with just a lot of dead weight on the roster. I'll take the 2 years of the almost certain productive player for that price over the handful of journeymen.


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