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Wilson Contreras

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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#21

Posted: December 30, 2020, 8:35 PM Post
Posts: 1475
If you're going to assume we'll just throw that money away and get nothing for it, then yeah make the trade. I just don't think that's a fair assumption to make. But if you don't believe in free agents, then let's trade the same prospects for the best available 3B instead. Because catcher is still the wrong spot to spend resources on, as Brewers are already league-average or better there. Spend what's likely to be the majority of the money and prospect capital we're likely to spend this offseason on Contreras, and we'll have noone on the corners. When looking at a trade you also need to look at what we already have at the positions in question, and how it further impacts the squad. Contreras simply replaces a catcher on the roster (Probably Piña). That's an improvement, but a lot less than you probably think due to how much better of a defender Manny is. And it does nothing for any other position on the field (Contreras has a combined 36 innings between 1B, 3B and LF/RF over the past three years). Adding a 3B is adding to a position where Brewers currently have Urias starting and noone with any major league experience (Or a highly ranked prospect either) backing him up. In addition to whatever effect that strictly has on 3B, it also means Urias can play more SS and 2B (which also pushes whoever would've been the middle IF backup down a notch) and that in turn means Hiura can DH (Or play 1B, tho I don't think they go that route) some more. Adding a 1B means Vogelbach can mostly DH instead, improving the production from both DH and 1B (I'm fairly certain there will be a DH in 2021. If nothing else, it would allow a platoon and a better bench). Contreras might be a 3 WAR catcher in a vacuum (He has never reached that by either fWAR or WARP, but let's be generous), but he would add less to the team than a 2 WAR third baseman would. With the knock-on effects, I think even a 1 WAR third baseman might add similar value.

In a vacuum trading for Contreras is fine. In a situation where there would be money left to spend after making the trade, it's fine. When there is no other money to spend and it's trading two of the top 5 prospects in an already weak farm for a player who plays in a position that's not even in the top 5 positional needs the team has, it's not fine.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#22

Posted: December 30, 2020, 9:46 PM Post
Posts: 99
No way I want anything to do with Contreras unless he plays everyday at 1b or left field, I do not want to invest my limited funds on a C that one needs a day off more often then a regular position player two still leaves us with the same weaknesses to address and 3 will more then likely cost us more to trade within the central ( maybe with the cubs selling that might not happen but odds are not in our favor) I like Contreras but in this year where we will have to more the likely have to do more with less in regards to payroll we must choice our opinions wisely and I this may OT be it.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#23

Posted: December 30, 2020, 9:56 PM Post
Posts: 26757
Walleye2 said:
No way I want anything to do with Contreras unless he plays everyday at 1b or left field, I do not want to invest my limited funds on a C that one needs a day off more often then a regular position player two still leaves us with the same weaknesses to address and 3 will more then likely cost us more to trade within the central ( maybe with the cubs selling that might not happen but odds are not in our favor) I like Contreras but in this year where we will have to more the likely have to do more with less in regards to payroll we must choice our opinions wisely and I this may OT be it.


If you acquire Contreras no way do you do it for him to be your 1B. He's got a very high end bat for a catcher and a dime a dozen bat for a 1B. Not saying you never play him anywhere else but if you're trading for Contreras it's definitely for him to be your primary catcher.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#24

Posted: December 30, 2020, 10:02 PM Post
Posts: 5908
Team has plenty of catchers.
Catchers stink.
Don't waste prospect capitol on catchers.

Why is this so hard to understand?

Buster Posey's WAR peaked at 28. Downhill from there. Contreras will be 29 next season. And his downhill began in 2020.
What is it with trying to corner the market on catchers? They dont ever play 150+games in a season. The highs to lows are rapid. Wear and tear. Its the same thing with drafts. Kyle Schwarber was a premium bat catcher that never was.

Why give up future pieces at a position team has aplenty of? We still need 1b, SS, 3B improvements over a 2? year rental. And yes I did say SS because Arcia's bat is questionable and Urias' bat thus far is too. Not to mention defense not up to snuff. It's not like the minors is overflowing with top 50-100 prospects to possibly use at a deadline trade. Using however many top 12 propects to entice the Cubs to trade to us ruins that future usage. And last, it's the Cubs. Don't help them.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#25

Posted: December 30, 2020, 10:30 PM Post
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Cubs president Jed Hoyer said Wednesday that the rumors about Willson Contreras being shopped are "fictional."

This could be a game of semantics, as the Cubs have undoubtedly received calls about Contreras -- especially in the wake of the Yu Darvish/Victor Caratini trade -- and would almost certainly move the star catcher this winter given a sizable enough return. Hoyer also told reporters during Wednesday's press conference that he thinks "we're going to have a really competitive team next year," so take it all with a grain of salt.

SOURCE: Jordan Bastian on Twitter
Dec 30, 2020, 11:27 AM ET

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#26

Posted: December 30, 2020, 10:52 PM Post
Posts: 26757
brewcrewdue80 said:
Team has plenty of catchers.
Catchers stink.
Don't waste prospect capitol on catchers.

Why is this so hard to understand?

Buster Posey's WAR peaked at 28. Downhill from there. Contreras will be 29 next season. And his downhill began in 2020.
What is it with trying to corner the market on catchers? They dont ever play 150+games in a season. The highs to lows are rapid. Wear and tear. Its the same thing with drafts. Kyle Schwarber was a premium bat catcher that never was.

Why give up future pieces at a position team has aplenty of? We still need 1b, SS, 3B improvements over a 2? year rental. And yes I did say SS because Arcia's bat is questionable and Urias' bat thus far is too. Not to mention defense not up to snuff. It's not like the minors is overflowing with top 50-100 prospects to possibly use at a deadline trade. Using however many top 12 propects to entice the Cubs to trade to us ruins that future usage. And last, it's the Cubs. Don't help them.


Well first, Posey was really good through his age 31 season. He may have peaked at 28, but to say it was all downhill from there is really misleading. And I have no idea what Schwarber has to do with Contreras at all, that doesn't make any sense. Contreras is a 2 year commitment. I don't know how he's going to do compared to his last couple seasons, but he's not all that likely to just fall of a cliff and calling anyone's 2020 season their downhill season is really premature at this point.

The number of catchers we have is irrelevant if they all stink. We could have 40 catchers on our roster but that doesn't do us any good if we don't have productive ones.

As far as our other positions of need, we are trying to improve our win total, not plug holes in a boat. There are many ways to increase that win total, and I think we need to think a little more creatively than just looking at our positions of need and trying to just go sign the best players we can at those positions and trying again. Now if you think Navaez is ripe for a positive regression in 2021, that's fine and that's legitimate. But to just say we don't need Contreras because we already have catchers doesn't really make sense to me. Adding a really good catcher is a good thing that helps us regardless of our other needs.

I also assume that any team making an intra-division trade or any other trade does so with the intention of helping themselves. If it helps the other side, that kind of is the price of an intra-division trade or really any trade for that matter. If the other side didn't think it was helping them out too, you wouldn't have a trade partner.

And finally, just because others may have different concepts than you on how to make improvements to this team doesn't mean that they just don't understand.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#27

Posted: January 01, 2021, 1:16 PM Post
Posts: 99
adambr2 said:
Walleye2 said:
No way I want anything to do with Contreras unless he plays everyday at 1b or left field, I do not want to invest my limited funds on a C that one needs a day off more often then a regular position player two still leaves us with the same weaknesses to address and 3 will more then likely cost us more to trade within the central ( maybe with the cubs selling that might not happen but odds are not in our favor) I like Contreras but in this year where we will have to more the likely have to do more with less in regards to payroll we must choice our opinions wisely and I this may OT be it.


If you acquire Contreras no way do you do it for him to be your 1B. He's got a very high end bat for a catcher and a dime a dozen bat for a 1B. Not saying you never play him anywhere else but if you're trading for Contreras it's definitely for him to be your primary catcher.

Which is exactly my point for what we would have to give up its a pass for me. If I'm going to pay the price for a middle of the order bat in a leauge that does not have a dh then it better be a player that can play with just the normal time off not that required for a catchers.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#28

Posted: January 03, 2021, 5:38 PM Post
Posts: 915
Brew4U said:
Neither Feliciano or Turang are very impressive.


Agree with this 100%! I think Turang is nothing more than a 4th or 5th IF at best, and the jury is still out on Feliciano. I'm sorry, but I don't think this would be nearly enough to entice the Cubs to trade Contreras to one of their biggest rivals.

I hope I'm wrong on Turang, but I just don't think he's got a lot of big upside.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#29

Posted: January 03, 2021, 8:23 PM Post
Posts: 16230
Talk about hot takes on a 1st round pick with limited experience. I agree he isn’t some blue chip prospect to hoard at all costs...but he was 19 last time he was on a field and wasn’t too shabby.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#30

Posted: January 03, 2021, 8:56 PM Post
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287/384/376 (125 wRC+) 13.7 BB% 15.1 K%
231/346/344 (110 wRC+) 14.1 BB% 26.0 K%

One of those is Brice Turnag at age 19 in Appleton, the other is Trent Grisham at age 19 in Appleton.

273/324/477 (129 wRC+) 6.0 BB% 28.8 K%
242/320/359 (97 wRC+) 8.8 BB% 20.8 K%

One of those is Mario Feliciano at age 20 in A+, the other is Willson Contreras at age 22 in A+.

I personally think Turang & Feliciano posted some pretty impressive results last time they played, all while being both young for their respective levels & playing premium up the middle defensive positions so I would prefer not to trade either for Contreras.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#31

Posted: January 03, 2021, 10:02 PM Post
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Something else I thought was kind of interesting is that even in the non-Yasmani years of 2018 & 2020 the Brewers catchers as a whole (Pina 1195 innings +10 framing, Kratz 491 innings +5.4 framing,
Narvaez 285 innings + 3.9 framing, Jett/Jacob 370 innings +0.1 framing) have still managed to outproduce Contreras & Caratini, mostly on account of Willson grading out at -25.4 framing runs over 2018-20.

2018 | MIL: 76 wRC+ (21st) 1.9 WAR (15th) | CHI: 88 wRC+ (14th) 0.3 WAR (22nd)
2019 | MIL: 118 wRC+ (1st) 6.5 WAR (1st) | CHI: 107 wRC+ (4th) 3.0 WAR (11th)
2020 | MIL: 76 wRC+ (20th) 1.5 WAR (8th) | CHI: 78 wRC+ (19th) 1.1 WAR (11th)


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#32

Posted: January 04, 2021, 9:59 AM Post
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Posts: 1596
Location: Chicago
sveumrules said:
287/384/376 (125 wRC+) 13.7 BB% 15.1 K%
231/346/344 (110 wRC+) 14.1 BB% 26.0 K%

One of those is Brice Turnag at age 19 in Appleton, the other is Trent Grisham at age 19 in Appleton.

273/324/477 (129 wRC+) 6.0 BB% 28.8 K%
242/320/359 (97 wRC+) 8.8 BB% 20.8 K%

One of those is Mario Feliciano at age 20 in A+, the other is Willson Contreras at age 22 in A+.

I personally think Turang & Feliciano posted some pretty impressive results last time they played, all while being both young for their respective levels & playing premium up the middle defensive positions so I would prefer not to trade either for Contreras.


Even if "young" for their respective league their A+ numbers were from playing against other fresh out of high school kids or newly turned pro college kids. I hope all of these players develop as anticipated and the Brewers have a pipeline of talent keeping the major league team competitive.

The reality however is nearly all players in A+ ball will ultimately wash out of professional baseball before making the major leagues because the level of competition improves as they move up the ladder closer to the majors. Obviously there are exceptions to any rule, but a good way for a GM to get fired is to overvalue players in the organization who are years away from the major leagues.


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#33

Posted: January 04, 2021, 10:05 AM Post
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Posts: 13482
In that same train of thought, isn't another good way for a GM to get fired is to trade away a bunch of guys that become future stars in MLB after they are traded? I mean if you start trading away the farm, and a bunch of those guys that you trade end up stars for other teams, that isn't good either.

There is such a thin line between success and failure in baseball.

To quote Kenny Rogers: You've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Wilson Contreras
#34

Posted: January 04, 2021, 10:44 AM Post
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Posts: 1596
Location: Chicago
turborickey said:
In that same train of thought, isn't another good way for a GM to get fired is to trade away a bunch of guys that become future stars in MLB after they are traded? I mean if you start trading away the farm, and a bunch of those guys that you trade end up stars for other teams, that isn't good either.

There is such a thin line between success and failure in baseball.

To quote Kenny Rogers: You've got to know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em...


I agree with you that it's very hard to win in baseball. period. However, I don't think any GM would get fired for acquiring veterans in the here and now for A-ball players who develop into star players years down the road. As mentioned, there are exceptions to every rule, for example you don't trade Bryce Harper away when he's in A-ball. However, even in the best organizations the number of players in A-ball who even reach the majors is probably around 10%


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