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Burnes to White Sox rumors

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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#41

Posted: January 22, 2021, 10:29 AM Post
Posts: 1399
JosephC said:
wibadgers23 said:
The conversation doesn’t even start for me unless Vaughn is included and even then, I would be very hesitant to trade Burnes.


I agree. I am a big fan of Madrigal but he doesn't make any sense when looking at the Brewer's roster. When matching up the Brewer's needs with what the White Sox have to offer, it seems like Vaughn is the one necessary piece needed to get a deal done.

For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Burnes but, as a small market team, I don't believe there is ever a situation where a player is just automatically removed from the table. If the offer is right, trading Burnes could be a big benefit to the team depending on what Burnes does in the future and the return from a trade partner. As good as Burnes was last year, just two years ago he was so bad that he was getting shelled in AAA. Maybe he's turned the corner, but maybe not. I'm not in favor of trading him, but if it would happen it could very well be the case of Stearns hitting the jackpot and selling Burnes when he had reached his top peak value. Nobody know for sure what the future holds.

I don't think there is enough credibility to these rumors to make me want to crank surplus values on rumored names involved. But just looking at the baseballtradevalues site-

White Sox get-
RHP-Corbin Burnes
Brewers get-
1B-Andrew Vaughn
RHP-Codi Heuer
RHP-Jared Kelley
+ one more prospect, likely in the 15-30 area of the White Sox top prospect list

If Vaughn turns into a legitimate plus MLB everyday player, it's very likely this would be a good deal for Milwaukee because you are getting 6 years (3 cheap) of an everyday plus starting lineup regular versus 4 years (1 cheap) of a potentially star starting pitcher. So the quality you would lose from Burnes would likely be made up by the two extra cheap years of the everyday player. Add in that you get a relief pitcher that has been pretty much dominant since changing his release point and pretty much owned major league hitters last year. Then you get the White Sox second round pick who has big, big upside (probably grades a big higher than Antoine Kelly and would likely land on most Brewer top prospect lists at #4). And then there would probably be a fourth piece, probably a high upside youngster that hasn't gotten past rookie ball yet. Sometimes I just laugh the combinations that can be achieved using the baseballtradevalues site, but this one doesn't seem at that ridiculous at face value.

Personally, I wouldn't be in favor of that deal, but wouldn't be moaning and groaning if that deal was made. That is a trade that seems to make pretty good sense for the Brewers.


Hate to say this but I would actually be ok with that trade... But my god, it would suck to deal Burnes.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#42

Posted: January 22, 2021, 11:01 AM Post
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JosephC said:
wibadgers23 said:
The conversation doesn’t even start for me unless Vaughn is included and even then, I would be very hesitant to trade Burnes.


I agree. I am a big fan of Madrigal but he doesn't make any sense when looking at the Brewer's roster. When matching up the Brewer's needs with what the White Sox have to offer, it seems like Vaughn is the one necessary piece needed to get a deal done.

For the record, I'm not in favor of trading Burnes but, as a small market team, I don't believe there is ever a situation where a player is just automatically removed from the table. If the offer is right, trading Burnes could be a big benefit to the team depending on what Burnes does in the future and the return from a trade partner. As good as Burnes was last year, just two years ago he was so bad that he was getting shelled in AAA. Maybe he's turned the corner, but maybe not. I'm not in favor of trading him, but if it would happen it could very well be the case of Stearns hitting the jackpot and selling Burnes when he had reached his top peak value. Nobody know for sure what the future holds.

I don't think there is enough credibility to these rumors to make me want to crank surplus values on rumored names involved. But just looking at the baseballtradevalues site-

White Sox get-
RHP-Corbin Burnes
Brewers get-
1B-Andrew Vaughn
RHP-Codi Heuer
RHP-Jared Kelley
+ one more prospect, likely in the 15-30 area of the White Sox top prospect list

If Vaughn turns into a legitimate plus MLB everyday player, it's very likely this would be a good deal for Milwaukee because you are getting 6 years (3 cheap) of an everyday plus starting lineup regular versus 4 years (1 cheap) of a potentially star starting pitcher. So the quality you would lose from Burnes would likely be made up by the two extra cheap years of the everyday player. Add in that you get a relief pitcher that has been pretty much dominant since changing his release point and pretty much owned major league hitters last year. Then you get the White Sox second round pick who has big, big upside (probably grades a big higher than Antoine Kelly and would likely land on most Brewer top prospect lists at #4). And then there would probably be a fourth piece, probably a high upside youngster that hasn't gotten past rookie ball yet. Sometimes I just laugh the combinations that can be achieved using the baseballtradevalues site, but this one doesn't seem at that ridiculous at face value.

Personally, I wouldn't be in favor of that deal, but wouldn't be moaning and groaning if that deal was made. That is a trade that seems to make pretty good sense for the Brewers.

Very well said JC. I am not opposed to trading Burnes, but it would have to make sense from the Brewers standpoint. The problem with a lot of the rumored "packages" I've seen is they don't make the Brewers better in the short term or long term after you consider the loss of Burnes. I would be incredibly disappointed if the Brewers traded Burnes to the White Sox and didn't receive Vaughn as the headlining return piece.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#43

Posted: January 22, 2021, 11:27 AM Post
Posts: 1055
Eye Black said:
Very well said JC. I am not opposed to trading Burnes, but it would have to make sense from the Brewers standpoint. The problem with a lot of the rumored "packages" I've seen is they don't make the Brewers better in the short term or long term after you consider the loss of Burnes. I would be incredibly disappointed if the Brewers traded Burnes to the White Sox and didn't receive Vaughn as the headlining return piece.


No way in the world I'd trade Burnes for a bunch of maybes and give up on the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
Kelley is just starting his career and who knows if he ever makes it. Vaughn hasn't exactly set A ball (.252/.349) on fire. Heuer is a relief pitcher. IMO the Brewers can win the NL Central this year by keeping Burnes and adding a couple of offensive pieces. When you have two stud pitchers at the top of the order and a good pen, the time is now to go for it all.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#44

Posted: January 22, 2021, 11:50 AM Post
Posts: 34
I agree that we’re a 1B and 3B away from being really good but it’s become pretty clear that we don’t have any money. And very little prospect capital to work with. So the only options are really to buy low on a few guys and hope they turn out decent, which we did last year and it didn’t work. Or do a small rebuild and go at it next year when we have money from fans sitting in seats. It sucks but we’re a small market team and option 2 seems like the way they are thinking of going.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#45

Posted: January 22, 2021, 7:05 PM Post
Posts: 1276
I’ve stayed out of this thread but I’d just say that Burnes has high end potential based on his peripherals and “stuff.” Those portend huge upside. He’s the type of potential stud you dream and hope you can develop.

He’s under control and cost controlled.

It literally makes no sense to deal him. So if it’s happens, you’d need a large overpay way beyond some sort of statistical, WAR like analysis or what those silly surplus value websites say. This is also not about what he did in 2018 or 2019. It’s forward looking and about what he’s projected to be.

If they got equal value for him and they trade him, I’d go ballistic. No, this needs to be a huge haul. We are not in the same universe as Shelby Miller and guys like that where people try to poo poo the return. It’s not about numbers. It’s time to dig deeper. Burnes can be a true ace and elite pitcher with lots of control yet. Scarcity plays into it, big time.

Corbin Burnes’ profile is that of someone who is the most difficult to commodity to find, and then you couple it with control and cost certainty. The return would have to be gigantic. Otherwise, no point in doing it.

That’s fine if you want to disagree with me but there is no way I trade him for statistical even returns. Rick Hahn went to Harvard Law. He’s not an idiot. You just tell him “we are not inclined to move him, and if we do, we want an over pay, which here would be massive. If you still want him because of your depth of talent, we are open but don’t try to convince us on equal value because that will never happen. If that were the case, no shot we would trade him because he’s the hardest thing to find in baseball.” Truth be told based on stuff, he could easily be our number one starter with Woody the best number two in team history. That’s a very reasonable possibility.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#46

Posted: January 22, 2021, 7:33 PM Post
Posts: 2627
Location: Madison, WI
wntrtxn21 said:

Vaughn hasn't exactly set A ball (.252/.349) on fire.


That's why I wouldn't do this particular deal. I'm not convinced on Vaughn. But for people who like Vaughn, then I think the swap would be pretty fair and realistic. And Vaughn is #13 on MLB Pipeline's top 100, so it's obvious that there are a ton of baseball people who like him.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#47

Posted: January 22, 2021, 7:48 PM Post
Posts: 1276
JosephC said:
wntrtxn21 said:

Vaughn hasn't exactly set A ball (.252/.349) on fire.


That's why I wouldn't do this particular deal. I'm not convinced on Vaughn. But for people who like Vaughn, then I think the swap would be pretty fair and realistic. And Vaughn is #13 on MLB Pipeline's top 100, so it's obvious that there are a ton of baseball people who like him.


Agree. If all it took was Vaughn, Kelley and Heuer for Burnes, the White Sox would turn the card into the league office so fast your head would spin. If that’s all it took, this deal would have been done long ago.

If there truly is any talking here, Rick Hahn knows what he’s got to do. He’s not going to waste time with lowballs.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#48

Posted: January 23, 2021, 3:56 AM Post
Posts: 5919
If Im Stearns Id be asking for Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn. As someone mentioned Sale got them Moncada and Kopech plus. You can't give up the kind of pitching talent Burnes is without the wow factor. He just may become the next Max Scherzer who the White Sox could afford to pay down the road.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#49

Posted: January 23, 2021, 1:49 PM Post
Posts: 2627
Location: Madison, WI
brewcrewdue80 said:
If Im Stearns Id be asking for Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn. As someone mentioned Sale got them Moncada and Kopech plus. You can't give up the kind of pitching talent Burnes is without the wow factor. He just may become the next Max Scherzer who the White Sox could afford to pay down the road.


When Chris Sale was traded, he had finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting for 5 consecutive years and had 3 years of team control at a bargain price of 39.5 million. Just 2 years ago Burnes was getting bombed in AAA. They are not the same thing.

Chris Sale at time of trade = 27 years old, 1110 major league innings, 3.00 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 4.8 K/BB, 30.1 bWAR, 27.1 fWAR
Corbin Burnes as of today = 26 years old, 146 2/3 innings, 4.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB, 0.5 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#50

Posted: January 25, 2021, 3:29 PM Post
Posts: 6388
Location: New Berlin, WI
JosephC said:
brewcrewdue80 said:
If Im Stearns Id be asking for Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn. As someone mentioned Sale got them Moncada and Kopech plus. You can't give up the kind of pitching talent Burnes is without the wow factor. He just may become the next Max Scherzer who the White Sox could afford to pay down the road.


When Chris Sale was traded, he had finished in the top 6 in Cy Young voting for 5 consecutive years and had 3 years of team control at a bargain price of 39.5 million. Just 2 years ago Burnes was getting bombed in AAA. They are not the same thing.

Chris Sale at time of trade = 27 years old, 1110 major league innings, 3.00 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 4.8 K/BB, 30.1 bWAR, 27.1 fWAR
Corbin Burnes as of today = 26 years old, 146 2/3 innings, 4.48 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 3.5 K/BB, 0.5 bWAR, 2.2 fWAR


It's different, but it also isn't different. The white sox can't exactly go to the table and say "we like burnes, we want to trade for him...but these are the reasons we should get a discount". If the white sox come to the table wanting to trade for burnes, it's going to be because they think he's much more likely to be 2020 burnes going forward than 2019 burnes.

The established value of sale is why we would merely get a great package in trade and not an other worldly package like the red Sox gave up. The likelihood of sale continuing to be a top 10 pitcher in the league for 3 seasons was about as high as it gets for a pitcher. Whereas with burnes there is more risk, but considering his stuff probably a small bit more upside.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#51

Posted: January 25, 2021, 4:55 PM Post
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There might not be a player in the entire major leagues who it would make less sense to trade right now than Burnes. He clearly has ace upside but no team is going to give you an ace package for him (or even an above-average starter package for him) going into 2021.

Obviously made up by a White Sox fan, but hey there's nothing else out there about the Brewers right now so I get the three page thread.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#52

Posted: January 25, 2021, 5:07 PM Post
Posts: 34
There is a price for everyone. And when one of the few rumors we heard about the Brewers popped up about them willing to listen on SP, it’s understandable teams would call. I love Burnes, but let’s be honest he hasn’t been a model of consistency so far in his career.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#53

Posted: January 25, 2021, 7:16 PM Post
Posts: 6388
Location: New Berlin, WI
SRB said:
There might not be a player in the entire major leagues who it would make less sense to trade right now than Burnes. He clearly has ace upside but no team is going to give you an ace package for him (or even an above-average starter package for him) going into 2021.

Obviously made up by a White Sox fan, but hey there's nothing else out there about the Brewers right now so I get the three page thread.


I agree with this. It only makes sense to trade him if someone values him as a young ace or close to it. Which is why as you noted, it makes little sense to move him and he probably wont move


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#54

Posted: January 26, 2021, 10:02 AM Post
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Posts: 3877
Location: California
SRB said:
There might not be a player in the entire major leagues who it would make less sense to trade right now than Burnes. He clearly has ace upside but no team is going to give you an ace package for him (or even an above-average starter package for him) going into 2021.

This pretty much sums up my feelings on the situation. Every player has a price, Burnes included. However, it is imperative for small market teams like the Brewers to develop homegrown Aces because they simply aren't available to them in FA. Because of this fact alone, trading Burnes and the potential that he becomes an Ace, would require such a ridiculous overpay from another team that it becomes extremely unlikely, nearly impossible.

Vaughn, Madrigal, and Kopech would be mandatory if I were Stearns and that isn't happening.


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Offline  Re: Burnes to White Sox rumors
#55

Posted: January 26, 2021, 12:00 PM Post
Posts: 6388
Location: New Berlin, WI
Warning Track Power said:
SRB said:
There might not be a player in the entire major leagues who it would make less sense to trade right now than Burnes. He clearly has ace upside but no team is going to give you an ace package for him (or even an above-average starter package for him) going into 2021.

This pretty much sums up my feelings on the situation. Every player has a price, Burnes included. However, it is imperative for small market teams like the Brewers to develop homegrown Aces because they simply aren't available to them in FA. Because of this fact alone, trading Burnes and the potential that he becomes an Ace, would require such a ridiculous overpay from another team that it becomes extremely unlikely, nearly impossible.

Vaughn, Madrigal, and Kopech would be mandatory if I were Stearns and that isn't happening.


I agree with you in general, but I would say moreso that trading Burnes only happens if a package is offered that values him as if he'll be 2020 Burnes going forward. Obviously that would place a massive value on Burnes, and a fair price based on that valuation would be a pretty insane package. If a team tries to look at his career numbers and offer a package based on that...use it as toilet paper.

One thing I'll add, I saw Robert mentioned earlier in here. Even the very highest possible valuation for Burnes...and Robert isn't happening. There's just no way, he's way too good and too valuable. He's a guy that if I was the White Sox, I would firmly pull him off the table.


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