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Justin Turner

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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 1:48 PM Post
Posts: 22587
It's entirely possible that Turner has no intention of signing with the Brewers and is leveraging us to get the best possible deal from LA with every intention of taking it in the end. It's also possible he's seriously considering us. We have to be prepared that there's a chance of either.

Curious as to what 3 years might look like if we made a 3 year offer. 3/45?


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 1:50 PM Post
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Posts: 15522
Location: Milwaukee, WI
beekay414 said:
Brew4U said:
beekay414 said:
The problem with Urias and his bat is that it's likely fool's gold. He didn't hit for any type of power until the PCL and the PCL is a notorious hitter's league. Prior to the PCL, his MiLB ISO numbers align more to what he's done in the bigs these last 2 years. The issue is he is K'ing more at the big league level.

Don't expect the power to come, folks. He's better off serving as a UTIL guy than someone you count on as an every day bat. Stearns doesn't make a ton of trade mistakes but the Grisham-Davies for Urias-Lauer deal looks terrible right now. Love DS but that one hurts.


I’d probably wait to see this season before making any sort of statements like this.


Yeah, no. I'm using data available to everyone to make a realistic prediction. There's nothing wrong with heeding caution on a prospect. Outside of the PCL, Urias has shown no power. That's a fact. If he's going to have any value, he needs to cut down the K's and be the OBP machine he was AA and down. He needs to be in that 12-15% K rate, not 22-25%.

I’m as cautious as they come with prospects but talking power numbers when a kid is 16-20 years old is just silly. He might stink, he might be great, he might be average but it won’t be because of some data you think you understand.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 2:23 PM Post
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Posts: 925
Location: Chicago
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Axman59 said:
Personally, while I'd like him to play for the Brewers, I hope he stays in LA because I don't want a high priced key piece of the team to be wishing he was somewhere else for three years.


MLB players, especially those as accomplished as Justin Turner, don't do this. They know it is a business. If he signs with the Brewers, it means he wants to be a Brewer. If he re-signs with the Dodgers, it means he wants to remain a Dodger. I do truly think it's as simple as that. Justin Turner has earned more than $62 million in his career. If he is willing to go to a different city he doesn't want to be in over a few million dollars, he's done something seriously wrong with his life.


When someone plays baseball games for money, they tend to go wherever the pay is best, simple as that. I’m sure winning is nice but it is a business and for 98% of baseball players money is more important than winning.

Moreover, pro baseball players live luxury lifestyle no matter what team they play be it Los Angeles or Milwaukee for further diluting the differences between the teams.

Thirdly, the players know their earning potential in the pro game is limited and when the on-field days are over they’re not well suited to transition to other high paying jobs which is why they want to max out.

Finally, like real estate comps,, Turner wants to set the value for similarly situated players who come after him.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 2:35 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Say the Brewers offer 2yr-$20M and the Dodgers are 2yr-$18M. I could see him eventually taking less to stay in LA and possibly finishing out his time there.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 2:39 PM Post
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The report is Turner received multi-year offers from both LA and Milwaukee. My guess is it’s two years from LA and three from Milwaukee. If they were equal, Turner would already be a Dodger. So he’s weighing taking the bigger offer from Milwaukee or staying home.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 2:47 PM Post
Posts: 207
Brew4U said:
I’m as cautious as they come with prospects but talking power numbers when a kid is 16-20 years old is just silly. He might stink, he might be great, he might be average but it won’t be because of some data you think you understand.


Urias is 24 and has shown no power outside of the PCL. I'm taking the data he's given us and applying it to his projection. There's nothing that indicates he's going to be the guy he was in the PCL. Nothing. But you can keep your "wait and see" approach, I'll take the concrete data.

And, yes, you can talk power on 16-20 year olds anyways, otherwise why have FV grades? Some kids don't have power frames or swings and it's evident no matter how old they are. There's a reason Urias's power grades are below average and always have been.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 2:58 PM Post
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Posts: 15522
Location: Milwaukee, WI
beekay414 said:
Brew4U said:
I’m as cautious as they come with prospects but talking power numbers when a kid is 16-20 years old is just silly. He might stink, he might be great, he might be average but it won’t be because of some data you think you understand.


Urias is 24 and has shown no power outside of the PCL. I'm taking the data he's given us and applying it to his projection. There's nothing that indicates he's going to be the guy he was in the PCL. Nothing. But you can keep your "wait and see" approach, I'll take the concrete data.

And, yes, you can talk power on 16-20 year olds anyways, otherwise why have FV grades? Some kids don't have power frames or swings and it's evident no matter how old they are. There's a reason Urias's power grades are below average and always have been.


Fun fact: Robin Yount never hit over 10 HR’s until he was 24 years old. Same with Christian Yelich. I would have loved to see your posts on their power.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:01 PM Post
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There are also a lot of guys who never hit home runs, and continued not hitting home runs...

For every Robin Yount, there are probably 10,000 guys who sucked, and sucked until they were run out of baseball...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:02 PM Post
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Posts: 12414
The real question here is:

Is Urias ready for the "bright lights?"

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:09 PM Post
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Posts: 15522
Location: Milwaukee, WI
turborickey said:
There are also a lot of guys who never hit home runs, and continued not hitting home runs...

For every Robin Yount, there are probably 10,000 guys who sucked, and sucked until they were run out of baseball...


Correct. I’m not the one taking a stand that he’s never going to be a power hitter though. The other poster is. I’ve actually acknowledged that I don’t know where he will end up as a hitter. My original post was that he may want to see how this year plays out as Urias is entering his age 24 season. And as another poster noted, he hopefully will have a healthy wrist and no covid. Can you ever post and not be a troll? Or at least get better at it?

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Online  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:11 PM Post
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I don't think Urias will ever be a major power threat, but if he can hit near .300 with 10-15 HRs and Gold Glove-level defense at 3B, I'd take it.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:24 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I don't think Urias will ever be a major power threat, but if he can hit near .300 with 10-15 HRs and Gold Glove-level defense at 3B, I'd take it.


I think if you’re seeing this line out of him, he better be our shortstop. But I agree that this would be a welcomed sight and a line that would make that trade worth it.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:37 PM Post
Posts: 207
Brew4U said:
Fun fact: Robin Yount never hit over 10 HR’s until he was 24 years old. Same with Christian Yelich. I would have loved to see your posts on their power.


Robin Yount and Christian Yelich have no relevance to Luis Urias. Urias, from the get go, has had below average power grades. Prospects comparisons aren't linear. His value comes from his hit tool and his fielding, not his power. This isn't something that I'm pulling out of thin air, this is something that's been with Urias from the day he signed.


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Online  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:40 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I don't think Urias will ever be a major power threat, but if he can hit near .300 with 10-15 HRs and Gold Glove-level defense at 3B, I'd take it.


I think if you’re seeing this line out of him, he better be our shortstop. But I agree that this would be a welcomed sight and a line that would make that trade worth it.


I simply don't think it's imperative to have a 3B that hits 30+ HRs to be a successful ballclub. I personally think Arcia can hit 15-20 HRs too. If we have a left side of the infield that provides 35 HRs and solid defense, how is that any different from a team that employs someone like Moose and his 30 HRs and Alcides Escobar, who gives you 5?

Power is important, but I don't think it necessarily needs to be tied to particular positions.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:48 PM Post
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Posts: 15522
Location: Milwaukee, WI
beekay414 said:
Brew4U said:
Fun fact: Robin Yount never hit over 10 HR’s until he was 24 years old. Same with Christian Yelich. I would have loved to see your posts on their power.


Robin Yount and Christian Yelich have no relevance to Luis Urias. Urias, from the get go, has had below average power grades. Prospects comparisons aren't linear. His value comes from his hit tool and his fielding, not his power. This isn't something that I'm pulling out of thin air, this is something that's been with Urias from the day he signed.


This sound about right: “Power: Has excellent gap power now due to consistent hard contact and present strength. Line-drive approach right now and potential for above-average to plus home run power with added strength and loft. Additional focus on finding pitches he can drive has led to more in-game power now. Power will come as he fills out but he will never be an elite power hitter. Grade (raw power) – 40/60”

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:51 PM Post
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Luis Urias hit 19 HR in 73 games during his last season in AAA. He was on pace for a 40 HR season

lol, how are we having this discussion? [laughing]

(I'm not saying he's necessarily ever going to show that kind of power in the majors, but PCL or not, to suggest that he physically lacks any power seems like a stretch)


Last edited by SRB on February 13, 2021, 3:52 PM, edited 1 time in total.

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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:52 PM Post
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Posts: 15522
Location: Milwaukee, WI
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
Brew4U said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I don't think Urias will ever be a major power threat, but if he can hit near .300 with 10-15 HRs and Gold Glove-level defense at 3B, I'd take it.


I think if you’re seeing this line out of him, he better be our shortstop. But I agree that this would be a welcomed sight and a line that would make that trade worth it.


I simply don't think it's imperative to have a 3B that hits 30+ HRs to be a successful ballclub. I personally think Arcia can hit 15-20 HRs too. If we have a left side of the infield that provides 35 HRs and solid defense, how is that any different from a team that employs someone like Moose and his 30 HRs and Alcides Escobar, who gives you 5?

Power is important, but I don't think it necessarily needs to be tied to particular positions.


I don’t either but I also think that Arcia is on borrowed time here. As much as I like Arcia, if Urias is smashing the ball around, I think they find time for him at SS.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 3:54 PM Post
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Posts: 15522
Location: Milwaukee, WI
SRB said:
Luis Urias hit 19 HR in 73 games during his last season in AAA. He was on pace for a 40 HR season

lol, how are we having this discussion? [laughing]

(I'm not saying he's necessarily ever going to show that kind of power in the majors, but PCL or not, to suggest that he physically lacks any power seems like a stretch)


Power is so hard to project is part of my argument. To simply say he will never have it because of some prospect rankings doesn’t pass the smell test. Not only that but he’s about a year or so from being in his prime years. Waiting on any sort of power projection would be the wise move. Kid has talent and hopefully he can put it together in a Brewers uniform.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 4:33 PM Post
Posts: 854
For some reason, Urias reminds me of Javier Baez. Similar swings. Better walk rate and K rate.


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Offline  Re: Justin Turner
Posted: February 13, 2021, 4:44 PM Post
Posts: 5365
Urias was clearly acquired to replace Arcia. Stearns made it adamant he needed to improve the SS situation after Arcia's 2019. 2020 injury, covid, and shortened season here we sit with Arcia still at the moment the penciled in SS. SS is a position where providing passable defense with a clue at hitting is more than enough to sustain a long career there. Urias appears from the minors to be a bat that could maintain a .280plus BA with a .340plus OB. If he grew any power in his bat while maintaining that BA-OB he'd become a fairly elite SS, but we've been here before with Arcia who appeared like he could bat .270 .330 and 15-20HR upside. Urias and the OB is something clearly better than Arcia possessed upon joining the team. The excitement was the defense with bat upside. Urias is sorta fitting of a high floor that hasn't happened.
Still a fan of my idea on a 3-39mil contract with incentives on 500PAs each season that could add 6mil to his salary. Team needs to be creative that way to entice Turner in signing. Obviously the more PAs he sees, the more likelihood he is providing a surplus value on his contract.


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