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3B Trade Targets

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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#41

Posted: February 16, 2021, 8:30 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
I think the most obvious target is Kyle Seager, but I also think that if the Brewers were truly interested in him, he would have been a Brewer last offseason, instead of the Gyorko/Sogard/Holt murder's row we ended up going with.

The modus operandi this year seems to be grabbing former top prospects in that 24-28-year-old range who haven't been able to find a firm footing in MLB quite yet. Maikel Franco certainly fits that description, as does Jeimer Candelario. One name I've seen a little on social media that I don't believe has been mention here, though, is Rafael Devers. I don't know what the cost would be, but he'd be a perfect fit for this lineup. Likely very wishful thinking, though.


Yeah, Devers! A pre-arbitration eligible 23 year old starting 3B with a career OPS of .830. The Brewers should send Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and a throw in lien Corey Ray and get him today.

If that fails I’d pivot to Candelario. They could probably get him for just Garett Mitchell and Ethan Small


I did say wishful thinking. I don't know if Candelario would be that expensive, but he wouldn't be cheap. But this thread is for throwing around ideas, right?

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#42

Posted: February 16, 2021, 8:59 AM Post
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Jopal78! said:
If that fails I’d pivot to Candelario. They could probably get him for just Garett Mitchell and Ethan Small

This forum would burn to the ground if Mitchell and Small were traded for Candelario. He showed a breakout possibility last year but he still has a career line of .235/.326/.721 slash in 1367 PAs and is already 27. No thanks.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#43

Posted: February 16, 2021, 9:02 AM Post
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Warning Track Power said:
Jopal78! said:
If that fails I’d pivot to Candelario. They could probably get him for just Garett Mitchell and Ethan Small

This forum would burn to the ground if Mitchell and Small were traded for Candelario. He showed a breakout possibility last year but he still has a career line of .235/.326/.721 slash in 1367 PAs and is already 27. No thanks.


You would rather put a SS at 3B?


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#44

Posted: February 16, 2021, 9:19 AM Post
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BestInTheWorld said:
Warning Track Power said:
Jopal78! said:
If that fails I’d pivot to Candelario. They could probably get him for just Garett Mitchell and Ethan Small

This forum would burn to the ground if Mitchell and Small were traded for Candelario. He showed a breakout possibility last year but he still has a career line of .235/.326/.721 slash in 1367 PAs and is already 27. No thanks.


You would rather put a SS at 3B?

I'd rather go with Urias, Robertson, Gyorko, Franco, Shaw, Lamb...all players that either on the roster or currently available. More importantly, they don't cost the Brewers 2 of their top 5 prospects from an already weak system.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#45

Posted: February 16, 2021, 10:39 AM Post
Posts: 1301
BestInTheWorld said:
Warning Track Power said:
Jopal78! said:
If that fails I’d pivot to Candelario. They could probably get him for just Garett Mitchell and Ethan Small

This forum would burn to the ground if Mitchell and Small were traded for Candelario. He showed a breakout possibility last year but he still has a career line of .235/.326/.721 slash in 1367 PAs and is already 27. No thanks.


You would rather put a SS at 3B?


To me it's more the issue of creating new holes to fill. Nobody really knows what Small or Mitchell would be; they might be stars, they might never make it, they might become role players. You never do know with any one individual prospect, but you have some sort of "average" or "most likely" outcome for them that you have to count on, and so you get a certain production from the farm as a whole even if individuals will exceed or fall short of that. Now, all this is just to preface the usual retort that they're just prospects etc; the point is that while no prospect is ever a certain thing, that's not an argument to just trade everyone. Brewers will need a LoCain replacement soon, and there is always a need for SPs. Look at how hard it is to find a good CF, look at what even mediocre starters command on the open market.

So trading away two of your best prospects like that takes away two potential options to fill those holes for free; leaving the team to scramble to fill those spots down the line the same way you now try to fill 3B. So doing such a trade will need to be for a player who is truly worth that, and/or for a trade that brings you past a certain treshold or is the last piece of a championship team.

Which brings me to the most important point: Candelario is neither. Maybe he found something in 2020 or maybe he didn't, and it's all BABIP-driven small-sample noise. Either way, he's a 27 year old RHH 3B with a 95 wRC+ with three years of team control remaining. The Brewers already have a 27 year old RHH 3B with three years of (cheaper) team control remaining, who has put up a 97 wRC+ for his career so far.

If I had to guess at who will have the better 2021, then I'd lean towards Candelario. But enough of a difference to give up two of our best prospects and add a couple of million in payroll? Not even close. Keep Small (who might even see the majors already in 2021) and Mitchell for the future, and spend that $2m where it can best help. If we had a system like the Padres did, then I'd be a lot more positive towards trades like this. When Mitchell would be our 3rd or 4th best OF prospect, and Small just one among 10 promising arms at AA-AAA level. But we don't. And with how good the Dodgers and Padres and to a lesser extent the Mets and Braves look, this is not a year to go all in. Make incremental improvements, improvements that don't hurt the future, and do what you can to win the division and hope to get some of that Devil Magic in the playoffs.

TL;DR version: Candelario is not a good enough player to warrant that kind of trade.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#46

Posted: February 16, 2021, 11:10 AM Post
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That is why I doubt Candelario gets dealt. It makes no sense for the Tigers to trade him for less than the value if you assume last season was a real breakout. But it doesn’t make sense for any team to pay that price given his previous history and the abbreviated nature of last season.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#47

Posted: February 16, 2021, 11:35 AM Post
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To me it's more the issue of creating new holes to fill. Nobody really knows what Small or Mitchell would be; they might be stars, they might never make it, they might become role players. You never do know with any one individual prospect, but you have some sort of "average" or "most likely" outcome for them that you have to count on, and so you get a certain production from the farm as a whole even if individuals will exceed or fall short of that. Now, all this is just to preface the usual retort that they're just prospects etc; the point is that while no prospect is ever a certain thing, that's not an argument to just trade everyone. Brewers will need a LoCain replacement soon, and there is always a need for SPs. Look at how hard it is to find a good CF, look at what even mediocre starters command on the open market.

So trading away two of your best prospects like that takes away two potential options to fill those holes for free; leaving the team to scramble to fill those spots down the line the same way you now try to fill 3B. So doing such a trade will need to be for a player who is truly worth that, and/or for a trade that brings you past a certain treshold or is the last piece of a championship team.

Which brings me to the most important point: Candelario is neither. Maybe he found something in 2020 or maybe he didn't, and it's all BABIP-driven small-sample noise. Either way, he's a 27 year old RHH 3B with a 95 wRC+ with three years of team control remaining. The Brewers already have a 27 year old RHH 3B with three years of (cheaper) team control remaining, who has put up a 97 wRC+ for his career so far.

If I had to guess at who will have the better 2021, then I'd lean towards Candelario. But enough of a difference to give up two of our best prospects and add a couple of million in payroll? Not even close. Keep Small (who might even see the majors already in 2021) and Mitchell for the future, and spend that $2m where it can best help. If we had a system like the Padres did, then I'd be a lot more positive towards trades like this. When Mitchell would be our 3rd or 4th best OF prospect, and Small just one among 10 promising arms at AA-AAA level. But we don't. And with how good the Dodgers and Padres and to a lesser extent the Mets and Braves look, this is not a year to go all in. Make incremental improvements, improvements that don't hurt the future, and do what you can to win the division and hope to get some of that Devil Magic in the playoffs.

TL;DR version: Candelario is not a good enough player to warrant that kind of trade.


First off Candelario is a switch hitter.

And second, who's to say it would cost Mitchell and Small... I could see Mitchell as untouchable since he would replace Cain possibly after this year or the next... I could see something like Lutz, Ashby and Payton Henry.

I would totally do that deal in a heartbeat... Everything may have finally clicked with Candelario, he's just entering his prime and was once a top 100 prospect I believe... Which is apparently our theme this year.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#48

Posted: February 16, 2021, 2:30 PM Post
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CheeseheadInQC said:
That is why I doubt Candelario gets dealt. It makes no sense for the Tigers to trade him for less than the value if you assume last season was a real breakout. But it doesn’t make sense for any team to pay that price given his previous history and the abbreviated nature of last season.


This was my original point when people bring up Jeimar Candelario. Simply because Detroit is rebuilding doesn’t mean they are going to trade away young cost controlled players for a quantity of mediocre prospects from a system like Milwaukee’s.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#49

Posted: February 16, 2021, 3:34 PM Post
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https://twitter.com/Haudricourt/status/ ... 43168?s=19


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#50

Posted: February 16, 2021, 3:36 PM Post
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Wow Tom, tell us something we didnt already know.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#51

Posted: February 16, 2021, 3:40 PM Post
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If Arcia moves to third. Yikes


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#52

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:07 PM Post
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https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1361829353802395651

Sounds "significant" [wink]


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Online  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#53

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:08 PM Post
Posts: 3
Location: Stevens Point
https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1361829353802395651

Shaw coming back?


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#54

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:10 PM Post
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Jastro said:


His versatility makes him an ideal fit for this roster. Can be a platoon partner with Robertson at 3B, and with Hiura at 1B. Also 2B in a pinch. I dig it.

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#55

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:14 PM Post
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Brewers in serious talks with Travis Shaw.

Gross

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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#56

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:16 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Brewers in serious talks with Travis Shaw.

Gross


Who would you prefer as a LHH 3B?

Formerly Joey Meyer Bombs


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#57

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:16 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Brewers in serious talks with Travis Shaw.

Gross


Yeah my first thought was “gross” too but figured we were going this route after losing out on Turner.


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#58

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:17 PM Post
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Ron Robinson's Beard said:
A Swing and A Drive said:
Brewers in serious talks with Travis Shaw.

Gross


Who would you prefer as a LHH 3B?

Eddie Mathews


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#59

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:33 PM Post
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A Swing and A Drive said:
Brewers in serious talks with Travis Shaw.

Gross


What’s your solution?


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Offline  Re: 3B Trade Targets
#60

Posted: February 16, 2021, 6:38 PM Post
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As a fan, I get wanting to go trade for Matt Chapman or Jose Ramirez or hope we sign Justin Turner. The reality is that we would get outbid in terms of prospects for the first two and money (and the lure of home and legacy) for the last one.

Your options are Shaw, Lamb, Gyorko, Franco, Frazier...and they have already stated they were going to give time to Urias. Robertson has the most remaining upside of the group mentioned and Shaw is insurance against him bombing. Reality is any of those other guys can likely be had via trade for a lottery ticket prospect come June if Urias, Robertson and Shaw are all bombing.

My solution was trading for Arenado and paying him and Yelich a combined $50m per year for the next 6 years. That is unfortunately not reality in MLB economics.

What was the realistic 3B that would have made people happy?


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