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Trevor Story (or other SS targets?)

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Offline  Trevor Story (or other SS targets?)
#1

Posted: April 02, 2021, 11:53 AM Post
Posts: 1445
Assuming the Rocks drop out of contention and aren’t going to re-sign this guy I think he is our #1 target. What would the ask be for a rental? I’m assuming we will be in contention.

Thoughts?


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#2

Posted: April 02, 2021, 12:50 PM Post
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IMHO, the Brewers top deadline priorities will be:

1. High level starting pitching. If you truly want to complete with the Dodgers and Padres I think they could use 1 more arm after Woodruff and Burnes.

2. Maybe a 1B or 3B. I hope Hiura and Shaw work out but I expect at least 1 to flop.

That said, if they go after Story, I doubt he comes cheap.

Negotiations probably start with a headliner of Mitchell, Hedbert Perez, Small, or Turang and then maybe 1 or 2 other guys.

The Brewers certainly could get it done with what's in their system but I don't think this would be my top priority.


Last edited by wildcat2237 on April 02, 2021, 2:21 PM, edited 3 times in total.

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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#3

Posted: April 02, 2021, 12:55 PM Post
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Way too early to even guess what our top needs will be. Urias and Arcia could certainly be decent, I highly doubt we go 1B, 3B could be fine with Shaw and Co.

Pitching is always a deadline need in some form for every team.

I doubt they go big at the deadline...but who knows. Could be an interesting deadline for teams who get full capacity attendance sooner rather than later. Teams held down by local officials could really be outbid due to financial costs quickly.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#4

Posted: April 02, 2021, 1:41 PM Post
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My way too early prediction is that the rental bidding for Trevor Story comes down to the Brewers, Yankees, and Reds with the Braves as a dark horse. It’s not unprecedented for the Brewers to be in the mix for a high profile rental, they did so with Machado in 2018. I think ultimately the Rockies will end up keeping Story and just taking the 2022 comp pick (approx #30 overall) when Story inevitably signs elsewhere next offseason.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#5

Posted: April 02, 2021, 2:01 PM Post
Posts: 1445
That’s a disaster for the Rocks just taking a pick.


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#6

Posted: April 02, 2021, 2:10 PM Post
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Story is a guy I definitely would have loved in the offseason. It sounds like we are pretty much all-in on Urias at SS so we should have a good idea by July how that is panning out.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#7

Posted: April 02, 2021, 2:59 PM Post
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Story is another Colorado guy where you have to take a look at the home/away splits and figure out what you think he really is. (career .993 home ops, .760 away) In my mind, he'd probably improve the Brewers to some extent down the stretch, but not to any degree that would merit giving up any of those prospects mentioned by wildcat.

If Stearns gave Colorado Mitchell, for example, for 2.5 months of Story I probably couldn't even bring myself to be mad at him. I would figure he'd gone totally nuts and needed help from his loved ones.


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#8

Posted: April 02, 2021, 3:05 PM Post
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I don't think 2 months of Story is worth giving up Mitchell for either, but I also think the Coors effect of those lifetime Colorado hitters is a bit overblown. Most good hitters who leave Colorado adjust just fine. Not that a .993 home OPS is probably sustainable for him but if moved I'm confident he'd do considerably better than .760.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#9

Posted: April 02, 2021, 3:14 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
I don't think 2 months of Story is worth giving up Mitchell for either, but I also think the Coors effect of those lifetime Colorado hitters is a bit overblown. Most good hitters who leave Colorado adjust just fine. Not that a .993 home OPS is probably sustainable for him but if moved I'm confident he'd do considerably better than .760.


He'd probably post an OPS somewhere right between .993 and .760.

Either way, I think he'd be fairly expensive, and just not worth the price. Especially, when this team can be improved at other positions.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#10

Posted: April 02, 2021, 3:59 PM Post
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This lineup is definitely short a bat, maybe 2


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#11

Posted: April 02, 2021, 4:20 PM Post
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I’d let this lineup play for a bit before deciding what they’re short on. Very easy to get caught up in names.

"I'm not as good as I was but in big moments I'm still the guy. I want that opportunity." -Ryan Braun


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#12

Posted: April 02, 2021, 4:28 PM Post
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I wouldn't trade Mitchell alone for 2 months of Story.

I think that would be a foolish proposition for a team like the Brewers. Although he is a minor leaguer, I think he is the closest thing we have in our minors, as far as a bat is concerned, to be a real difference maker as early as next season.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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#13

Posted: April 02, 2021, 4:32 PM Post
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Brew4U said:
I’d let this lineup play for a bit before deciding what they’re short on. Very easy to get caught up in names.


I agree. This thread will be much more appropriate about June 1.

A lot needs to play out between now and then.


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#14

Posted: April 02, 2021, 4:49 PM Post
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No need to discus this as the Rockies will be 10 games back and under .500 at the deadline but make zero moves because that franchise is a rudderless ship.


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#15

Posted: April 02, 2021, 5:12 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
No need to discus this as the Rockies will be 10 games back and under .500 at the deadline but make zero moves because that franchise is a rudderless ship.

I listened to an interview with a Rockies beat reporter (Nick Groke), and he talked about how the Rockies don’t act in-line with what’s generally considered rational by the consensus. He said after taking an absolute beating over the Arenado trade (in which case Nolan was requesting to be traded), he doesn’t think the owner, Dick Monfort (who he said fancies himself a GM), would be willing to trade Story even if it’s the obviously smart thing to do for the franchise. He was of the opinion it would need to be an extreme overpay in order for the Rockies not to just ride with Story right until the bitter end.

Groke also said the Rockies don’t typically make many trades. The Brewers and Rockies haven’t made a trade together since 2004.


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#16

Posted: April 02, 2021, 5:44 PM Post
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wildcat2237 said:
Brew4U said:
I’d let this lineup play for a bit before deciding what they’re short on. Very easy to get caught up in names.


I agree. This thread will be much more appropriate about June 1.

A lot needs to play out between now and then.

The thing I disagree with a bit here is that unless Story falls off a cliff or gets injured it’s almost a certainty he’d improve the Brewers lineup significantly. If any two of the following four players are hitting at or below their expectations than Story makes all the sense in the world from the Brewers end (but NOT taking into account the likely high cost of acquiring him): Urias, Shaw, Arcia, Hiura

My point is it doesn’t have to necessarily be viewed as an upgrade over a current shortstop option. There are scenarios where you can move other guys to 3B (Urias, Arcia) and/or 1B (Shaw) to accommodate the addition of Story’s bat in the lineup.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#17

Posted: April 02, 2021, 6:28 PM Post
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wildcat2237 said:
IMHO, the Brewers top deadline priorities will be:

1. High level starting pitching. If you truly want to complete with the Dodgers and Padres I think they could use 1 more arm after Woodruff and Burnes.

2. Maybe a 1B or 3B. I hope Hiura and Shaw work out but I expect at least 1 to flop.

That said, if they go after Story, I doubt he comes cheap.

Negotiations probably start with a headliner of Mitchell, Hedbert Perez, Small, or Turang and then maybe 1 or 2 other guys.

The Brewers certainly could get it done with what's in their system but I don't think this would be my top priority.


Just to clarify...you think Stearns would offer Mitchel, Turang or Small in a deal for Story? For one who will be a FA? One who has a career 760 OPS away from Coors Field?

I like Story’s game. But that would be quite the pill to swallow. Especially after seeing these boys ball in spring.


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#18

Posted: April 02, 2021, 7:47 PM Post
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Not big on rentals with a farm system so thin in top level prospects.

No way I’m giving up Mitchell and Stearns isn’t either.

I’m not as high on Small so parting with him would be easier for me.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets? ).
#19

Posted: April 02, 2021, 8:36 PM Post
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The problem with Story, is he really going to be a difference maker bat outside of Colorado? Why mortgage a huge chunk of the farm for a guy who will post a .800 OPS? Sure, great for SS...but hardly catapulting our offense.

If I am giving up our top prospect for a rental bat he better be MVP level with the bat no matter the position he plays.


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Offline  Re: Trevor Story (or other SS targets?)
#20

Posted: April 02, 2021, 9:26 PM Post
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Story to the Reds was the most obvious move of the offseason that didn't happen, but lolRockies is pretty much the new lolMets at this point, so not really I guess.

Either way, I don't see Stearns & company dealing any prospect they view as a long term future contributor for any rental player. The highest guys on the current BF.net Top 25 I could see them offering for deadline Trevor are maybe someone like Lutz or Rodriguez.

The free agent SS class should also be an interesting Story-line to follow this year. Career stats entering 2021 listed with Lindor included for reference even though he signed already, age in parentheses is for 2022 season...

Lindor (28) | 3510 PA | 117 OPS+ | +7 BSR | +38 FLD | 27.9 WAR
Correa (27) | 2583 PA | 126 OPS+ | +2 BSR | +47 FLD | 26.9 WAR
Story (29) | 2541 PA | 114 OPS+ | +10 BSR | +60 FLD | 22.7 WAR
Baez (29) | 2708 PA | 102 OPS+ | +13 BSR | +63 FLD | 19.1 WAR
Seager (28) | 2301 PA | 129 OPS+ | +6 BSR | -4 FLD | 17.7 WAR


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