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Prospective trade deadline targets?

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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:02 PM Post
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Simba2020 said:
and not very good at first either.


I don’t disagree that he’s no longer a third base option, but what data are you citing to support a claim of poor performance at first?


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:05 PM Post
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Jopal78! said:
Stranger things have happened but judging by who the Brewers have traded at the deadline


This seems like an unusual way to judge potential deadline deals. First, many of those players DID have modest value when traded. Second, I’m not sure you can judge any potential deals based on historical deals because we don’t know what other deals they considered previously, whether they judge their playoff chances differently now vs the past, hence a greater willingness to make a bigger deal, etc.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:25 PM Post
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Stearns/Arnold have done a great job of continuously improving the team throughout the year already and not just waiting until the deadline. So I'm with those that recognize some of the "deadline" deals for this team are ones that have already occurred. Because of that, this is already a pretty different team than the one that began the season.

Some MLB rankings since the Adames trade:

C (11th in fWAR, 20th in wRC+)
1B (16th in fWAR, 21st in wRC+)
2B (11th in fWAR, 7th in wRC+)
3B (15th in fWAR, 14th in wRC+)
SS (2nd in fWAR, 3rd in wRC+)
LF (7th in fWAR, 10th in wRC+)
CF (23rd in fWAR, 29th in wRC+)
RF (8th in fWAR, 9th in wRC+)

SP (2nd in fWAR, 2nd in ERA)
RP (16th in fWAR, 8th in ERA)

Hopefully some combination of Cain returning and JBJ returning to career norms will improve those CF numbers.

Other than already being closer to average at some positions than maybe expected, not too many surprises. I'd love to see an impact bat added at 1B or 3B (Gallo, Mancini, Bryant, Donaldson, etc.), but regardless, I think you at least want to get some depth at 1B/3B and RP to protect against injuries and inconsistent production down the stretch. In lieu of a bigger splash, I'd love to see an Escobar-type added in addition to a relief pitcher.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:28 PM Post
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MrAllen said:
Just to compare Reynolds and Gallo...

Reynolds 2007-09 (he pretty much peaked his first 3 years):
Image

Gallo 2018-21:
Image

Not a horrible comparison. That said, Reynolds was very good his first three years (ie. I would be happy adding that kind of production to the team), and Gallo still almost doubled his WAR in 200 fewer PAs in this comparison. Also note that Reynolds' numbers were probably helped by a high BABIP, which may have explained some of his decline after these three years. Whereas Gallo's low BABIP could lead to better results moving forward.


Thanks for the side-by-side. Similar batting profile, but Gallo is miles better on the bases and defensively.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:30 PM Post
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MrAllen said:
Stearns/Arnold have done a great job of continuously improving the team throughout the year already and not just waiting until the deadline. So I'm with those that recognize some of the "deadline" deals for this team are ones that have already occurred. Because of that, this is already a pretty different team than the one that began the season.

Some MLB rankings since the Adames trade:

C (11th in fWAR, 20th in wRC+)
1B (16th in fWAR, 21st in wRC+)
2B (11th in fWAR, 7th in wRC+)
3B (15th in fWAR, 14th in wRC+)
SS (2nd in fWAR, 3rd in wRC+)
LF (7th in fWAR, 10th in wRC+)
CF (23rd in fWAR, 29th in wRC+)
RF (8th in fWAR, 9th in wRC+)

SP (2nd in fWAR, 2nd in ERA)
RP (16th in fWAR, 8th in ERA)

Hopefully some combination of Cain returning and JBJ returning to career norms will improve those CF numbers.

Other than already being closer to average at some positions than maybe expected, not too many surprises. I'd love to see an impact bat added at 1B or 3B (Gallo, Mancini, Bryant, Donaldson, etc.), but regardless, I think you at least want to get some depth at 1B/3B and RP to protect against injuries and inconsistent production down the stretch. In lieu of a bigger splash, I'd love to see an Escobar-type added in addition to a relief pitcher.


Ironic part is roughly 30% of the payroll is in CF.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:32 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Simba2020 said:
and not very good at first either.


I don’t disagree that he’s no longer a third base option, but what data are you citing to support a claim of poor performance at first?

Maybe there are other metrics, but his OAA is negative at first. His UZR/150 ratings are negative. Both of those measurements are worse than Hiura's are. He hasn't played first in 3 years. He views himself as a RF and I'm still not sure he'd welcome a return to 1B.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:32 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Simba2020 said:
and not very good at first either.


I don’t disagree that he’s no longer a third base option, but what data are you citing to support a claim of poor performance at first?

Maybe there are other metrics, but his OAA is negative at first. His UZR/150 ratings are negative. Both of those measurements are worse than Hiura's are. He hasn't played first in 3 years. He views himself as a RF and I'm still not sure he'd welcome a return to 1B.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:54 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
This seems like an unusual way to judge potential deadline deals.


Not really, they've been buyers the last handful of seasons, their payroll has remained fairly constant in the 100-120 million dollar range during that time period, and they remain a team that must draft and develop significant talent to be successful year to year

PeaveyFury said:
First, many of those players DID have modest value when traded.


Exactly, emphasis on the word modest. In fact, most of those players are no longer with the organization the Brewers traded them to further illustrating their value

PeaveyFury said:
Second, I’m not sure you can judge any potential deals based on historical deals because we don’t know what other deals they considered previously, whether they judge their playoff chances differently now vs the past, hence a greater willingness to make a bigger deal, etc.


All one can go on is what they did in the past. It is not like they magically are going to through the budget in the garbage can and go hog wild. Futher, short of a total collapse down the stretch, they are likely to win the NL Central. That fact alone probably influences their decision to make a "bigger deal" as you say. Especially considering they were in much tighter races in 2018 and 2019. Succinctly stated, perhaps to our collective disappointment, since 2017 they haven't significantly mortgaged the future to bring in players at the deadline, I wouldn't count on that changing this year either


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 2:59 PM Post
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I just think that there are different players available to acquire, differing levels of talent in your own farm system, and different needs to fill than there may have been in previous years. Hence, I don’t think past performance is necessarily indicative of future results.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 3:49 PM Post
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Apologies as I haven't read back through this thread, but Donaldson makes a lot of sense to me. Any deal for him would likely involve us sending Cain or Bradley back to alleviate some of Donaldson's salary and make it a little more palatable for us to hold onto Donaldson for a couple more years. He could play 1B/3B this year and DH the next few years potentially. His OPS+ the last couple years with Minnesota has basically not dipped at all from his career average, acquiring him would lengthen the lineup but still allow for Urias/Tellez to get some playing time (and even potentially open up more playing time for Taylor).

The questions for me would be:
1. Are the Twins serious about contending next year, or is that a line to drive up prices for the trade deadline? Do they want to dump Donaldson's contract?
2. What kind of return are they looking for. Assuming we include Cain or Bradley and their money in the deal, what are we looking at? Is Turang/Feliciano enough?


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 4:09 PM Post
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Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 4:19 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.


Donaldson and cash for salary this season for Cain, Turang, and multiple low level guys.

Is this fair/reasonable?


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 4:57 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.


Donaldson and cash for salary this season for Cain, Turang, and multiple low level guys.

Is this fair/reasonable?


No IMO - It is a massive overpay. I guess it comes down to the "cash" part - it would need to be a lot of cash, but the Brewers aren't trading Turang to get Donaldson.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 4:59 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
PeaveyFury said:
Donaldson is indeed logical if you can get one of the OF contracts sent back as well. Otherwise, cost would definitely be a factor.


Donaldson and cash for salary this season for Cain, Turang, and multiple low level guys.

Is this fair/reasonable?


Buxton and Donaldson for Turang and JBJ would be reasonable. A lot depends on what the Twins want more, to get talent back or to get rid of Donaldson's salary.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 5:10 PM Post
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I MIGHT do Turang/JBJ for Donaldson, not Turang and Cain. I’d agree on a deal if Buxton was involved.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 5:13 PM Post
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endaround said:
Buxton and Donaldson for Turang and JBJ would be reasonable. A lot depends on what the Twins want more, to get talent back or to get rid of Donaldson's salary.


It checks out on everyone's favorite BTV site because of the salaries involved. I can't imagine MA would approve it (it adds something like $50M over the next two and a half years), but otherwise it would be one heck of a baseball trade for the Crew. I imagine the crew would have to add a couple more prospects so 1.) the Twins feel like they're getting more for Buxton, and 2.) the Brewers can get the Twins to kick in a few more dollars to cover Donaldson's contract. At that point it may start getting to complex to actually happen though.

But other than that, sign me up!


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 5:19 PM Post
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Can probably forget Donaldson and Bryant now.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 5:21 PM Post
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I’ve seen people today float the idea of Mitch Garver as a RHH catcher and backup first baseman. Do we think that’s remotely feasible? It’s intriguing if nothing else.


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 5:39 PM Post
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If Donaldson was OK with playing at 1st the rest of this year and going back to 3rd next year when Escobar is gone... that would be pretty WOW. With the increase in payroll coming next year just from the guys already on the roster I doubt it happens, but I'm gonna dream.

If not, I think a bullpen arm or two and I'm pretty happy with the moves made this year(not just at the deadline).


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Offline  Re: Prospective trade deadline targets?
Posted: July 28, 2021, 6:04 PM Post
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Imagine if the Yankees trade judge now after acquiring Gallo. Judge was scratched earlier.


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