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Burnes or Woodruff

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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#41

Posted: May 15, 2021, 9:14 AM Post
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RollieTime said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
paul253 said:
I would not trade either of them right now. Not a chance.

BUT, hypothetically what would the return have to look like if one of them were traded?


Ace level pitchers that are still under cheap team control for multiple seasons? The return ask is "sky is the limit". Guys like that just aren't dealt. I really can't think of a close match when it has ever happened. Starting pitching is still gold.


Something close to Blake Snell might be a realistic trade. I imagine they are similar in value. Woodruff does have 3.5 years left at this point compared to Snell’s 3 years at $39 million total at the time of the trade. Woodruff is making a little over $3 million this season, but will be getting some significant raises. Maybe something close to $30 million the next 3 years for Woody?


Yep, probably a pretty good comp. The only difference I see is that Snell perhaps peaked a bit earlier with his tremendous 2018 season, but followed that up with pretty pedestrian 2019 before looking better last year. Woodruff and Burnes are seemingly still in the incline portion of their careers.


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#42

Posted: May 15, 2021, 9:34 AM Post
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RollieTime said:

Something close to Blake Snell might be a realistic trade. I imagine they are similar in value. Woodruff does have 3.5 years left at this point compared to Snell’s 3 years at $39 million total at the time of the trade. Woodruff is making a little over $3 million this season, but will be getting some significant raises. Maybe something close to $30 million the next 3 years for Woody?



I don't think the Rays got enough for Snell but yeah that is probably the most realistic trade.

I would put Woodruff's surplus value at $150m and being realistic in terms of a trade that probably gets chopped down to about $100m in surplus value. There is only one team that could get to that $100m in surplus value and that is the Padres and you won't be getting any MLB ready players in that return. If you wanted to settle for something around $70m in surplus value then the Red Sox have enough but they would be emptying out their farm system for 1 player. If you could get the Rays to trade for Woodruff that would be another team with enough to get you to around $70m in value. The Yankees could also get you to $70m in value but that is gambling hard on Dominguez, Schmidt and Peraza.

If the Brewers did try and trade Woodruff they would get a pick of the teams that they would want to trade with and would get strong offers but I think the deal will be underwhelming in terms of the number of high prospects the Brewers will get. I could see the Yankees doing Dominguez, Schmidt, Peraza and Frazier for Woodruff. That would fix their rotation and give them a solid starter behind Cole.

For the Red Sox I think a deal like Casas, Downs, Duran and Mata being their best offer. I am not sure I would even entertain that if I am Stearns but that is the best the Red Sox could do.

For the Rays I think a deal like Baz, Brujan and McClanahan would be something they would do but I am not sure the Rays would trade that many for just one player.

For the Padres I think something like this would work Gore/Abrams, Hassell and Weathers. That is a lot for Woodruff I guess if the Padres were desperate you could get a return of Gore and Abrams but I believe that wouldn't happen the Brewers would have to pick between the two if they were even made available.

Beyond that I am not sure there are any more teams out there that could come close to Woodruff's value or would be willing to part with the prospects or talent needed to get Woodruff.

Burnes even though he is having a good year is probably the easier of the two to trade as he had that bad 2019. His value will be slightly lower basically only requiring Dominguez and Frazier from the Yankees to get close to his value.


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#43

Posted: May 15, 2021, 11:52 PM Post
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I just can’t see the Crew moving any of the 2 at this point. The Crew finally got homegrown quality Starters after years of years of struggling finding starting pitching.


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#44

Posted: May 17, 2021, 2:20 AM Post
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If we truly tank before the trade deadline, it would be fun to move Woodruff and Yelich to get Wander Franco. It's not going to happen, but it would be fun. It is more likely we sign Braun and rent a big stick or two (Trevor Story? Trea Turner? Jesus Aguilar?)


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#45

Posted: May 17, 2021, 5:50 AM Post
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Trae Turner isn't a rental, nor is Jesus Aguilar. Each are arby eligible guys for 2022. Maybe you know that and are just referring to them as 1.5 year rentals...but just thought I would make that clear for others who might not have known that. Makes a big deal when it comes to price.


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#46

Posted: May 17, 2021, 10:44 AM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Trae Turner isn't a rental, nor is Jesus Aguilar. Each are arby eligible guys for 2022. Maybe you know that and are just referring to them as 1.5 year rentals...but just thought I would make that clear for others who might not have known that. Makes a big deal when it comes to price.

Trea Turner would be a dream to get on this team. He always struck me as the poor man's Mike Trout if he could ever stay healthy. Career .300 hitter and 162 game average of 24 HR and 50 SB. He truly is one of the more underappreciated superstars (yes superstar) in the game. If the Brewers could extend him, I would pretty much clear the farm system to get him.


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#47

Posted: May 17, 2021, 11:07 AM Post
Posts: 5909
turborickey said:
Bradley will not be opting out unless he finishes the season a hell of a lot better than he has been so far. We are stuck with him.

Cain isn't retiring with all that money on the table, no way.

If we don't resign Garcia, our OF could look like this in 2022:

LF Yelich
CF Cain
RF Bradley

Tyrone Taylor as the #4

That is kind of scary if Yelich continues his injury situation...

Our OF needs an overhaul, and it will be hard to do with Cain and Bradley still on the books.


Tristen Lutz has over a 1. OPS in 11games-45PA with 3HRs at AA. FGs have his with about 40% of of Balls in play going opposite field. He'd be knocking at the ML door right now if pandemic hadn't wiped away a year to showcase at AA already.

And yes I was inferring above that small market teams are AAAA. Production for FAs to be.


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#48

Posted: May 17, 2021, 12:50 PM Post
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paul253 said:
I would not trade either of them right now. Not a chance.

BUT, hypothetically what would the return have to look like if one of them were traded?


White Sox got:

Dylan Cease
Eloy Jimenez
Yoan Moncada
Michael Kopech
Victor Diaz
Luis Basabe

For 3 years of Chris Sale and 2 1/2 years of Jose Quintana.

So something like that for both, or more considering more control even though neither are good as Sale was when he was traded. I think they're more valuable than Quintana was when traded though.


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Offline  Re: Burnes or Woodruff
#49

Posted: May 17, 2021, 12:52 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
The concept of Cain retiring or Bradley Jr. opting out of his contract is the humor I needed to get through the day. We might as well form an alliance where 8 of us win half a billion dollar powerballs in a row and buy the team.

I bet the Brewers hang on to Garcia too if he has a decent year and then he will proceed to suck in 2022 (never has he had two decent years in a row). Probably safe to pencil in that $12mil salary into the 2022 payroll, for now.

All of Stearns’ disaster contracts are quite likely to return. Garcia is the only wildcard.


Lol, Stearns has never had a disaster contract. The only possiblity is Yelich if he's injured the whole time, but we aren't there yet.


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