LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next  [ 120 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Cubs fire sale

Author Message
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#61

Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:04 AM Post
Posts: 12873
Rizzo turned down an offer this past offseason from the Cubs that was around 3 years in the $45-50 million range. He thought he was worth Freddie Freeman type money. I think there's some bitterness on his part and his days will end with the Cubs either in July or September. Now there aren't a lot contending teams out there where Rizzo would be a significant upgrade but he would certainly be an upgrade for the Brewers. All the Brewers need to do is surpass any draft compensation the Cubs might get for his departure. Brewers even have a controllable young 1B they can include in the deal in Tellez (part of the reason I think they acquired him). Rizzo isn't what he was but he's still a quality hitter.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#62

Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:06 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2211
Location: At the gettin' place
Fear The Chorizo said:
The Cubs probably don't even take the Brewers call unless Garrett Mitchell is the first words they hear.

if that's actually what the Cubs' front office should be the starting offer for 2 months of Kris Bryant, he's not getting traded. A developed prospect without Mitchell's talent ceiling or a couple young lottery ticket minor league arms seems more realistic at this point. This year's deadline is a buyer's market. And it wouldn't be 9 Million in remaining contract by the time a trade is made a few weeks from now - it would be more like $6M....and even a team like the Brewers would have no problem picking all of that up if it meant not including premium prospects in the deal. I'd imagine the Cubs would actually prefer to pay all of what's left to Bryant if it meant a better trade package return, though.

I've long thought that teams unloading veteran position players who are set to be free agents often get poor return in deadline trades compared to pitchers.


This is correct IMO.

Mitchell is obviously a no, I think everyone agrees on that.

I'd offer them Small. And I wouldn't feel great about it.

Bryant is a good player at this point, not some superstar.


Last edited by StearnsFTW on July 13, 2021, 9:24 AM, edited 1 time in total.

 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#63

Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:20 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2836
JohnBriggs12 said:
Rizzo turned down an offer this past offseason from the Cubs that was around 3 years in the $45-50 million range. He thought he was worth Freddie Freeman type money. I think there's some bitterness on his part and his days will end with the Cubs either in July or September. Now there aren't a lot contending teams out there where Rizzo would be a significant upgrade but he would certainly be an upgrade for the Brewers. All the Brewers need to do is surpass any draft compensation the Cubs might get for his departure. Brewers even have a controllable young 1B they can include in the deal in Tellez (part of the reason I think they acquired him). Rizzo isn't what he was but he's still a quality hitter.


That's the right move by both sides.

If Rizzo wants to play to the very back end of his prime with you and give you another chance to see if you've got a contender but easily deal him if not, fine.

For Rizzo, at worst he can sign 1 year/$12-15 million deals for 4-5 more seasons. At best, he signs a 5 year/$90 million deal somewhere this offseason and he was right to pass on the Cubs' offer.


Last edited by bill hAll Star on July 13, 2021, 9:26 AM, edited 1 time in total.

 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#64

Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:25 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 11878
You'd have to think the Brewers would be ultra-interested in signing either Rizzo or Bryant to an extension, so I don't think it's crazy to think that it COULD be more than a rental.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#65

Posted: July 13, 2021, 9:54 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1583
Location: Chicago
JohnBriggs12 said:
Rizzo turned down an offer this past offseason from the Cubs that was around 3 years in the $45-50 million range. He thought he was worth Freddie Freeman type money. I think there's some bitterness on his part and his days will end with the Cubs either in July or September. Now there aren't a lot contending teams out there where Rizzo would be a significant upgrade but he would certainly be an upgrade for the Brewers. All the Brewers need to do is surpass any draft compensation the Cubs might get for his departure. Brewers even have a controllable young 1B they can include in the deal in Tellez (part of the reason I think they acquired him). Rizzo isn't what he was but he's still a quality hitter.


Rizzo is having a better year than Hosmer (SD), Bobby Dalbec (BOS), Yandy Diaz (TB), plus anyone Milwaukee has. That's half the contenders right there. Depending on how you want to define contenders Rizzo would be a significant upgrade at first base for the Yankees, Indians and Mariners as well.

Let's be honest, the Cubs aren't any good because their starting pitching and middle relief isn't any good. However, nearly all their hitters 1-8 are better than their counter part on the Brewers this year with the exception of Heyward v. Garcia, and with Contreras (defense) v. Narvaez being close. (Adames with Milwaukee has been better than Baez but in 120 fewer at bats as well). Anyways, if Chicago decides to break up their team there will be plenty of interest in these hitters.

In a town where the '85 Bears are still worshipped; it will take an owner and GM with some real stones to jettison their world series heroes and take the roster down to the studs. Not even the Brewers did it electing to hang on to their MVP Braun during their recent rebuild.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#66

Posted: July 13, 2021, 10:08 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 7947
It would be kind of fun to have Rizzo hitting for us in a pennant race.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#67

Posted: July 13, 2021, 10:18 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 4294
Jopal78! said:
However, nearly all their hitters 1-8 are better than their counter part on the Brewers this year.


That might be true 1-8, but if you include players 9-14+, the Brewers position player group as a whole has been more productive than the Cubs...

MIL | 96 wRC+ | +5.3 BSR | +20.3 DEF | 11.6 WAR
CHC | 97 wRC+ | -1.2 BSR | -1.9 DEF | 8.7 WAR

Not bad considering the Cubs are spending about 95 million on position players this year compared to only about 60 million for the Brewers, per SpotRac.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#68

Posted: July 13, 2021, 10:18 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 7947
Regarding Rizzo, I don't think the Qualifying Offer is much of an issue. Unless he improves significantly in the second half, I doubt the Cubs would give him a $19M QO. That's just seems a bit rich - but maybe I'm wrong.

The main thing that would drive his price up right now would be the fact that a team like Boston could really use him. He sort of fits perfectly for them as their first base production has been pretty bad - and they could use the lefty bat.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#69

Posted: July 13, 2021, 10:18 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 11878
Jopal78! said:

Rizzo is having a better year than Hosmer (SD), Bobby Dalbec (BOS), Yandy Diaz (TB), plus anyone Milwaukee has. That's half the contenders right there.


Just because this is true doesn't AUTOMATICALLY mean those teams would have interest. San Diego is paying Hosmer gobs of money, and I'd be astounded if they chose to push him to the bench. Doesn't mean it won't happen, just that I think it's exceptionally unlikely.

Jopal78! said:
Not even the Brewers did it electing to hang on to their MVP Braun during their recent rebuild.


Well, his no-trade clause likely limited that possibility in a lot of ways.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#70

Posted: July 13, 2021, 10:43 AM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1583
Location: Chicago
PeaveyFury said:
Jopal78! said:

Rizzo is having a better year than Hosmer (SD), Bobby Dalbec (BOS), Yandy Diaz (TB), plus anyone Milwaukee has. That's half the contenders right there.


Just because this is true doesn't AUTOMATICALLY mean those teams would have interest. San Diego is paying Hosmer gobs of money, and I'd be astounded if they chose to push him to the bench. Doesn't mean it won't happen, just that I think it's exceptionally unlikely.

Jopal78! said:
Not even the Brewers did it electing to hang on to their MVP Braun during their recent rebuild.


Well, his no-trade clause likely limited that possibility in a lot of ways.


Then again there is not a team more "ALL IN" than San Diego this year, yet they find themselves in 3rd place in their Division with Hosmer's play having been awful. I suppose it comes down to how badly they want to win and only the ownership and GM can answer that question.

As for no trade clauses, they are nothing more than tools to give players leverage. Players don't want to work where they are not wanted, in fact the only player I can think of who exercised his no trade clause was Lucroy, and they still traded him anyways


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#71

Posted: July 13, 2021, 11:48 AM Post
Posts: 1135
I came to this thread because I wanted to know who the Cubs were "fire-selling." It appears that the answer so far is, No One. What am I missing?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#72

Posted: July 13, 2021, 2:00 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 2836
Jopal78! said:
PeaveyFury said:
Jopal78! said:

Rizzo is having a better year than Hosmer (SD), Bobby Dalbec (BOS), Yandy Diaz (TB), plus anyone Milwaukee has. That's half the contenders right there.


Just because this is true doesn't AUTOMATICALLY mean those teams would have interest. San Diego is paying Hosmer gobs of money, and I'd be astounded if they chose to push him to the bench. Doesn't mean it won't happen, just that I think it's exceptionally unlikely.

Jopal78! said:
Not even the Brewers did it electing to hang on to their MVP Braun during their recent rebuild.


Well, his no-trade clause likely limited that possibility in a lot of ways.


Then again there is not a team more "ALL IN" than San Diego this year, yet they find themselves in 3rd place in their Division with Hosmer's play having been awful. I suppose it comes down to how badly they want to win and only the ownership and GM can answer that question.

As for no trade clauses, they are nothing more than tools to give players leverage. Players don't want to work where they are not wanted, in fact the only player I can think of who exercised his no trade clause was Lucroy, and they still traded him anyways


Saying the Padres are "3rd place in the division" is quite misleading. They're a top probably 7 or 8 team in baseball. I'd argue if they were healthier in the pitching staff they'd be top 3.

It's not their fault they are in with the Dodgers and now the Giants who seem to be back ahead of the curve in analytics (rebuilding up a bunch of "failed" high-upside pitchers) and/or stealing signs (a bunch of solid hitters having career years).

There are always reasons for signing guys when you aren't in a competitive window and/or when the guy is going to spend most of his contract beyond age 30. I'm glad it happens in most cases because otherwise everyone would be the Rays. That said, I'm sure lots of these teams when they are "all in" or are having their year regret having a guy that is now below league average at a position but is still owed $75 million dollars. You're kind of stuck there unless the guy gets a long-term injury or you have balls of steel to trade over the top of him and relegate him to a bench role/cut him.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#73

Posted: July 13, 2021, 3:36 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 1583
Location: Chicago
bill hAll Star said:

Saying the Padres are "3rd place in the division" is quite misleading. They're a top probably 7 or 8 team in baseball. I'd argue if they were healthier in the pitching staff they'd be top 3.

It's not their fault they are in with the Dodgers and now the Giants who seem to be back ahead of the curve in analytics (rebuilding up a bunch of "failed" high-upside pitchers) and/or stealing signs (a bunch of solid hitters having career years).

There are always reasons for signing guys when you aren't in a competitive window and/or when the guy is going to spend most of his contract beyond age 30. I'm glad it happens in most cases because otherwise everyone would be the Rays. That said, I'm sure lots of these teams when they are "all in" or are having their year regret having a guy that is now below league average at a position but is still owed $75 million dollars. You're kind of stuck there unless the guy gets a long-term injury or you have balls of steel to trade over the top of him and relegate him to a bench role/cut him.


It cannot be misleading because it’s true, the Padres are in 3rd place. Moreover it is the whole point why they would have potential interest Rizzo. They went “all in” expecting to compete for the NL West; but if the season ended today they’d be playing a do or die game at Dodger Stadium against the reigning champions.

I agree 100% they’re more talented than a typical 3rd place team, but certain players (like Hosmer) haven’t met expectations and they didn’t anticipate a strong Giants team so they are what they are: a team expecting to be in first place, sitting in the 2nd wild card spot, looking up at two other teams in their division.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#74

Posted: July 14, 2021, 8:15 AM Post
Posts: 6377
Location: New Berlin, WI
bill hAll Star said:
KeithStone53151 said:
bill hAll Star said:
It has been clear that the Cubs have been smart about this unless one assumes they were going to have a $300+ million payroll with luxury tax 4 years from now.


As far as long term planning, the Cubs have not been remotely smart for probably 6-7 years.


I think we sparred on this in the past and I'll agree that they may have chosen the wrong targets, but I do think there is a very specific time to overpay players and it is when you have a 3-4 year window of controllable, cheap players.

The Yankees seem to be OK almost always paying the luxury tax and sneaking under for a year or two. The other bigger markets are OK with it for 2-3 years.

So maybe the Cubs chose wrong on some (Heyward, maybe) but the one time I am OK overspending is if you have a Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras to build around for a small $ amount. Then you can overpay and know you're going to dip into luxury tax with Lester, Heyward, Darvish, etc.

In the end, the Cubs' demise was not having enough pitching come together at the right time. Hendricks was a great home-grown pitcher but that is honestly about it. Kimbrel was an overpay that somehow didn't pay off for 2 years.

This is also why I laughed at the Arenado move for the Cards. They already had an aging roster where they've dealt away minors depth. They're not a team that's going to go into the luxury tax often. So they dealt for Arenado to be an 80-85 win team and not much room to grow. Then they'll deal with 4 years of crap Arenado contract on the back end. Bad timing.

For the Cubs the timing was right, the players were not the best.


That's fair to a degree. One thing I'll add, the Dodgers have been in a competitive window for a long time as well...yet they've made a point not to trade away guys they recognized would be elite talents. Bellinger, Lux, Smith, May, Urias, etc. The Dodgers surely recognized these players would actually be good, while also recognizing that Diaz was overhyped. Verdugo goes against that theory, but they were getting Betts so it's a bit easier to make peace with trading someone who's actually going to be good. The Cubs didn't do this with Jimenez/Cease/Torres/etc. The Dodgers admittedly are just way better at developing players than pretty much anyone else so they have more prospects to consider, but they didn't just go sell the farm for rentals every time they had a good record. The Cubs are a top 5 market and there's just no reason they couldn't operate like the Dodgers and have a 10+ year window of being reeeeeally good. Instead they traded away every top prospect they had for rentals and narrowed their window to 4-5 years.

Frankly, the other top 5-10 markets should be looking at how the Dodgers operated over the last 5 years and try to copy it. They've had 90+ wins every year since 2013 aside from last year(43-17) along with 1 world series(really should be 2) and should be a 90+ win team probably for the next 4-5 years with the talent on the roster.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#75

Posted: July 14, 2021, 8:27 AM Post
Posts: 6377
Location: New Berlin, WI
I have a hard time seeing us make a trade with the Cubs. I'm also not certain they'll sell until I see it. I wouldn't want Baez at all but Bryant/Rizzo would both fit really well. Will be interesting to see if they sell and who and all that. I also agree Rizzo would be a really great fit in Boston.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#76

Posted: July 14, 2021, 9:59 AM Post
Global Moderator
Posts: 1621
San Diego should not be desperate, despite a very likely play-in WC game this year; the team is in a good position because lots of key players are still young, cheap, and even improving. They have a strong system though it's maybe a bit top heavy, and could probably move some second tier guys for rentals without blowing up their long term. (Or maybe not...if you believe fan graphs, there's a substantial gap between their four top 100 guys and the next tier who are 40+ FV...the Brewers OTOH have like eight players who are 45 or 45+.) I don't know how they should approach the deadline, honestly...it seems unlikely that they'd miss the WC but challenging to win the division outright, so how much resources should you spend for a playoff run? Hosmer is one more glaring weakness, but that contract is a doozy. How much do you spend for a pitcher assuming some of the injured guys will be back? Also, their best prospect is an infielder but they look to be pretty set at ss, 2b, and 3b. Abrams could be a valuable piece but probably you get better return in the offseason. Do you instead move Machado or Cronenworth at some point and promote Abrams? Fun times.

The Cubs and their non dynasty is an interesting thing. I would have imagined that the strong core of young position players would have led to sustained success, moreso than a strong young pitching staff, because position players tend to be less volatile and I would have assumed the Cubs had plenty of resources to buy pitchers. That should have been true I think, but they really didn't ever deliver on that promise after their WS. The Brewers look to have the opposite situation, with strong pitching but needing to fill in position players, so it's interesting to see how this plays out going forward.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#77

Posted: July 14, 2021, 10:18 AM Post
Posts: 6036
The Cubs and other NL Central teams will wait to see how the Brewers finish off their July schedule before determining whether or not to sell or hold at the deadline....if the Brewers scuffle the division is wide open for a mediocre roster to wind up earning a NLDS berth, and that postseason path is much more realistic than catching the Padres/Dodgers/Giants for one of those wild card berths.

I think we as Brewer fans bought too much or even more into this Cubs' young position player corps as all being good/great than many Cub fans themselves. To be honest the Cubs won the WS because Bryant played at an MVP level that season (he is still good, but hasn't been close to the same player since then) and they got key contributions from veterans like Zobrist and Fowler, plus great pitching from prime Arrieta. Many of their other homegrown or acquired young talent never took the next step from being replacement level MLB players to good or even elite. For all the talk about how well Theo and company rebuilt the Cubs' org from the ground up into a competent and well-run big market machine, their downfall has been a failure to develop enough of their own talent to sustain being an elite team like the Dodgers have - and the fact the Ricketts have poured a fortune into the club outside of team payroll (buying the team, self-funding wrigley renovations, buying and developing much of the surrounding properties, etc) means they don't have near the deep pockets as other big market clubs to continuously buy themselves out of roster issues.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#78

Posted: July 14, 2021, 11:41 AM Post
Posts: 993
The Cubs already pretty much called themselves sellers. Its just a matter of getting the best deal and thinking about potentially offering a long term contract.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#79

Posted: July 14, 2021, 12:22 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 13360
Like others have said, I'll believe it when I see it.

I can't imagine what kind of hit they will take from their fans if they move Rizzo and or Bryant.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#80

Posted: July 14, 2021, 12:39 PM Post
Posts: 6377
Location: New Berlin, WI
turborickey said:
Like others have said, I'll believe it when I see it.

I can't imagine what kind of hit they will take from their fans if they move Rizzo and or Bryant.


Yes they'll get some serious boos if they do. I don't think it woudl make sense to only move one guy. They need to go big on either an allin or a sale this deadline. Especially with Rizzo considering a QO would not be smart for the Cubs. They could pretty fair haul trading all 3 dudes. They could even expand with Contreras and go full sell and try to set up a 3 year rebuild.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next  [ 120 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: nate82 and 5 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
cron
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test