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Cubs fire sale

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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#21

Posted: July 09, 2021, 11:40 AM Post
Posts: 16239
JohnBriggs12 said:
Everyone talks about Small as the centerpiece of an offer. Why not a guy like Lauer who's controllable for 3 more seasons? Brewers could then find a veteran rental to take his place in the back end of the rotation the rest of the year.


#1 A team trying to do a rebuild doesn't want a low ceiling back of the rotation starter. They want potential.

#2 What is the point of trading Lauer instead of prospects and then go reacquire a starter using prospects? Why not keep the pitcher doing well for you and just trade the prospects for the guy you want in the first place. You didn't really avoid trading away prospects. You just added an extra step and added risk.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#22

Posted: July 09, 2021, 11:46 AM Post
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Give up Lauer as he now looks to be something useful in our rotation? No thanks. He’s a young lefty… patience.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#23

Posted: July 09, 2021, 12:45 PM Post
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I am not crazy about giving up starting pitching unless it for a big time player.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#24

Posted: July 09, 2021, 12:47 PM Post
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Cubs have a nice two way player that could give us bullpen depth and play the field as a utility guy.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#25

Posted: July 09, 2021, 12:48 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Cubs have a nice two way player that could give us bullpen depth and play the field as a utility guy.


MODS ban him now!!!!!!!


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#26

Posted: July 09, 2021, 12:55 PM Post
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Bryant is being paid 18 million dollars this year. So he's likely going to add 9 million dollars in payroll. Because he is an elite hitter (worst non-covid season .272/.370/.460) and can play 1B, 3B, LF, RF and even CF, the price to acquire him even as a rental would be through the roof not to mention the significant cost in additional payroll. The Cubs probably don't even take the Brewers call unless Garrett Mitchell is the first words they hear.

As for the demise of their current club; they're really no different than the Doug Melvin era Brewers. They hit on a large amount of high first round draft picks but they were all position players. The only homegrown quality pitcher Epstein ever had was Kyle Hendricks. Therefore they traded away the next wave of prospects to plug holes mostly with their pitching get Chapman, Mike Montgomery, Quintana, Wade Davis, etc. Like Milwaukee they spent a lot of of their payroll acquiring starting pitching: Lester, Lackey, Darvish, Tyler Chatwood, Cole Hamels etc. which didn't exactly work out how they hoped.


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Online  Re: Cubs fire sale
#27

Posted: July 09, 2021, 1:13 PM Post
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Jopal78! said:
Bryant is being paid 18 million dollars this year. So he's likely going to add 9 million dollars in payroll. Because he is an elite hitter (worst non-covid season .272/.370/.460) and can play 1B, 3B, LF, RF and even CF, the price to acquire him even as a rental would be through the roof not to mention the significant cost in additional payroll. The Cubs probably don't even take the Brewers call unless Garrett Mitchell is the first words they hear.


Yeah, it will be interesting to see what the Cubs get for Bryant. If the Brewers could pay lower in prospect capital by taking on all of the remaining salary, it would be one thing, but if they have to take on all the salary and give up their top prospects, I don't see it happening.

Right now, the Brewers are set up to have a very good rotation for the next three years, with some guys hopefully ready to move to the top of the rotation when the "big three" are nearing the end of their team control. If they trade away guys like Ashby and Small for short-term rentals, they will slightly increase their shot at a World Series this year, while seriously hurting their future.

Summed up, I'd rather see Ashby and Small as our #4/5 starters behind Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta, giving us five "top-of-the-rotation" guys for the next three years than see them used to bring in a rental player in a year where we are already way up in the standings with much of the competition selling off talent. If we could get Bryant or Rizzo by paying the remainder of their contract plus some mid-tier guys I'm all for it. Any trade that would require any of our top guys, I'd shy away from and just look to add to the 'pen.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#28

Posted: July 09, 2021, 2:10 PM Post
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PeaveyFury said:
patrickgpe said:
I would imagine the cubs would want the brewers to overpay to participate in this.


I've never been able to actually determine if the 'not within the division' stuff is actually true or just the feeling of us fans.


Unless i missed one, the last time the brewers made a trade with the Cubs was 16 years ago (Johnson for Ezi) and the Cards 18 years ago (DeJean for 2 PTBNL)

I know the brewers and Pirates have made a few. I went all the way back to the beginning of the Melvin era and I see nothing between the brewers and reds. So i think its more than just a feeling, if you go back and see whom the brewers typically trade with.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#29

Posted: July 09, 2021, 2:13 PM Post
Posts: 1046
Chafin or Winkler would be my objectives. Chafin will cost a little more, but should not cost anything too big.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#30

Posted: July 09, 2021, 2:19 PM Post
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patrickgpe said:
PeaveyFury said:
patrickgpe said:
I would imagine the cubs would want the brewers to overpay to participate in this.


I've never been able to actually determine if the 'not within the division' stuff is actually true or just the feeling of us fans.


Unless i missed one, the last time the brewers made a trade with the Cubs was 16 years ago (Johnson for Ezi) and the Cards 18 years ago (DeJean for 2 PTBNL)


We actually keep track of this here:

viewtopic.php?p=788773#p788773

Pirates (06/25/21) -- Acquired RHP Jandel Gustave and OF Troy Stokes, Jr. in exchange for C Samuel Escudero
Cardinals (07/31/15) -- Acquired OF Malik Collymore in exchange for RHP Jonathan Broxton and cash
Reds (05/27/19) -- Acquired cash in exchange for RHP Tristan Archer
Cubs (12/08/16) -- Acquired cash in exchange for LHP Caleb Smith

I think of relevant note, the Brewers HAVE been on the dumping end of a few deadline-type deals with St. Louis, sending them both Broxton as noted above and Axford.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#31

Posted: July 09, 2021, 4:02 PM Post
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The Cubs probably don't even take the Brewers call unless Garrett Mitchell is the first words they hear.

if that's actually what the Cubs' front office should be the starting offer for 2 months of Kris Bryant, he's not getting traded. A developed prospect without Mitchell's talent ceiling or a couple young lottery ticket minor league arms seems more realistic at this point. This year's deadline is a buyer's market. And it wouldn't be 9 Million in remaining contract by the time a trade is made a few weeks from now - it would be more like $6M....and even a team like the Brewers would have no problem picking all of that up if it meant not including premium prospects in the deal. I'd imagine the Cubs would actually prefer to pay all of what's left to Bryant if it meant a better trade package return, though.

I've long thought that teams unloading veteran position players who are set to be free agents often get poor return in deadline trades compared to pitchers.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#32

Posted: July 09, 2021, 4:12 PM Post
Posts: 26762
Fear The Chorizo said:
The Cubs probably don't even take the Brewers call unless Garrett Mitchell is the first words they hear.

if that's actually what the Cubs' front office should be the starting offer for 2 months of Kris Bryant, he's not getting traded. A developed prospect without Mitchell's talent ceiling or a couple young lottery ticket minor league arms seems more realistic at this point. This year's deadline is a buyer's market. And it wouldn't be 9 Million in remaining contract by the time a trade is made a few weeks from now - it would be more like $6M....and even a team like the Brewers would have no problem picking all of that up if it meant not including premium prospects in the deal. I'd imagine the Cubs would actually prefer to pay all of what's left to Bryant if it meant a better trade package return, though.

I've long thought that teams unloading veteran position players who are set to be free agents often get poor return in deadline trades compared to pitchers.


I wouldn't give up Mitchell for Bryant, but premium rentals still command respectable prices. Bryant is a premium rental. He's not going for a couple lottery tickets, and we don't know that it's a buyer's market before the market has even been established.

The Cubs can get draft compensation just by holding Bryant. It doesn't make sense for them to trade any of these guys without a respectable return. Somewhere in the ballpark of what Manny Machado brought to the Orioles a few years ago is probably in the ballpark.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#33

Posted: July 09, 2021, 4:18 PM Post
Posts: 1142
Craig Kimbrel wouldn’t look bad in the 8th for us….


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#34

Posted: July 09, 2021, 5:31 PM Post
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I don’t see the Cubs trading with us


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#35

Posted: July 10, 2021, 7:32 AM Post
Posts: 12893
brewmann04 said:
I am not crazy about giving up starting pitching unless it for a big time player.


Would you consider a year and a couple months of Mancini big time enough? Tellez and Lauer might be attractive to the O's too.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#36

Posted: July 10, 2021, 7:40 AM Post
Posts: 1479
I like Bryant as a player, and his versatility (3B, 1B, LF, RF and even CF in a pinch) is huge. He's also one of the few current Cubs I don't mind at all. But I'm also not a believer in giving up actual prospects for rentals; any rentals. Maybe if it's a hyped Rookie ball kid who might very well be a legit good prospect, but is also at least 4-5 years away and obviously carries a ton of risk. Prospects who have passed the biggest promotion hurdle in the minors and proven that they can handle AA are different though, especially if the team is looking to be competitive for more than just this year. Starting pitching in particular shouldn't be given up like that, thinking of the Small + Turang proposal earlier. Small probably doesn't have the stuff to ever be an ace, but at the same time seems to have a very high floor and it's hard to see him not be a back of the rotation guy at a minimum. The homegrown (Or at least developed in the org) pitching has been the key to the success, and will remain so, and it's vital to continue that. If we're going to give up legit actual prospects, I want it to be for long-term players. Like the Yelich trade. Or give up a couple of relievers for almost 4 years of Willy Adames...

Anyway, as for the Cubs in general. They went for their strategy of drafting position players early and acquiring pitching in FA. Which obviously worked, they won a WS, and their first round picks worked out well for them overall. But what prevented them from remaining relevant and avoiding another rebuild this soon was the total failure to develop pitching. I imagine Alzolay has passed him now, but before this season Duane Underwood with 35 MLB innings was the pitcher originally signed or drafted in the Theo era who had contributed the most to the MLB team. You can't sustain that really. Means needing to constantly hit on your free agent pitcher signings, needing to spend money on your #4-5 starters and middle relievers that can't be used elsewhere etc. And then when your position player core also gets expensive with nothing else coming through.... well, you end up with the 2021 Cubs. So their strategy was a great short-term one, but I think the Brewers seemingly opposite philosophy of developing pitching while paying for position players is more long-term sustainable.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#37

Posted: July 10, 2021, 8:31 AM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
The Cubs probably don't even take the Brewers call unless Garrett Mitchell is the first words they hear.

if that's actually what the Cubs' front office should be the starting offer for 2 months of Kris Bryant, he's not getting traded. A developed prospect without Mitchell's talent ceiling or a couple young lottery ticket minor league arms seems more realistic at this point. This year's deadline is a buyer's market. And it wouldn't be 9 Million in remaining contract by the time a trade is made a few weeks from now - it would be more like $6M....and even a team like the Brewers would have no problem picking all of that up if it meant not including premium prospects in the deal. I'd imagine the Cubs would actually prefer to pay all of what's left to Bryant if it meant a better trade package return, though.

I've long thought that teams unloading veteran position players who are set to be free agents often get poor return in deadline trades compared to pitchers.


Simple economics the greater the demand the higher the price. There is t a contending team that wouldn’t want Bryant in their lineup, thus expect the cost to be high for whomever lands him.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#38

Posted: July 10, 2021, 10:36 AM Post
Posts: 1275
Garrett Mitchell is off the table. You guys should know that. If you’re clinging to the notion that he’s the 49th best prospect in baseball, that’s laughably low and outdated. The Cubs wouldn’t even seriously utter his name in a deal for a rental.

I get a kick out of the guys who think when we trade a premium talent, you could never get a top prospect back, but when we are buying talent, we need to give away impact talent. Have enough self-awareness to be consistent both ways.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#39

Posted: July 10, 2021, 11:08 AM Post
Posts: 374
Austin Tatious said:
Garrett Mitchell is off the table. You guys should know that. If you’re clinging to the notion that he’s the 49th best prospect in baseball, that’s laughably low and outdated. The Cubs wouldn’t even seriously utter his name in a deal for a rental.

I get a kick out of the guys who think when we trade a premium talent, you could never get a top prospect back, but when we are buying talent, we need to give away impact talent. Have enough self-awareness to be consistent both ways.


I've seen a lot of updated lists from guys I respect and certainly have more knowledge than most of us that have him rated as high as 9th. He's untouchable. Wouldn't think it's up for much of a discussion as he will be the starting CF in less than 2 years. Trading Small or Turang would be a tough pill to swallow but for the right player seems realistic.


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Offline  Re: Cubs fire sale
#40

Posted: July 10, 2021, 11:11 AM Post
Posts: 26762
Austin Tatious said:
You guys should know that.


Austin Tatious said:
I get a kick out of the guys who think


Austin Tatious said:
Have enough self-awareness


You couldn't have just said, "I disagree and think Mitchell's stock is much higher than it was in preseason, and is worth more now than any rental the Cubs could provide?"


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