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Trade Deadline Rumors

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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: July 31, 2021, 8:10 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
BestInTheWorld said:
Heyman said we made an offer for Story.

Curious who was in the deal.


My guess is not much. Something around the value of Peyton Henry maybe. He's a rental who is not having a great year by his standards. Whatever we offered was deemed less valuable than a comp pick.

He's a rental who is not having a great year, has a .655 road OPS this year, and is making $18.5M this year. I think the reason the Rockies didn't trade him is because in order to get a good prospect back they would have had to eat a good chunk of his remaining salary.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 01, 2021, 5:27 AM Post
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Guessing because they didn’t want to have to swallow their pride. I really doubt they didn’t get an offer better than a comp pick. How much is a comp pick even ‘worth’? They would have saved $8mil or so selling him off. That alone is probably more valuable than a comp pick.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 01, 2021, 10:22 AM Post
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adambr2 said:
BestInTheWorld said:
Heyman said we made an offer for Story.

Curious who was in the deal.


My guess is not much. Something around the value of Peyton Henry maybe. He's a rental who is not having a great year by his standards. Whatever we offered was deemed less valuable than a comp pick.


Deemed less valuable than a comp pick by the most incompetent organization in MLB.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 01, 2021, 11:27 AM Post
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How do you guys know what offers they had?

By not trading him they can negotiate with him at any time to extend his contract without any competing offers. Puts pressure on Story to make a decision and choose a bird-in-hand versus an unknown of what he will get as a FA. Also, what are the chances that Story gets a contract worth more than a QO after this past season with a .655 road OPS (and career sub-.750 road OPS)? I think there's a decent chance that Story accepts the QO to try to redeem his value; if he does, the Rockies can trade him next deadline.

I don't think this is a horrible move by the Rockies, and I think some of you are over-valuing him. For a guy with a sub-.750 career OPS away from Coors field and coming off of a season where so far he has a .655 OPS away from Coors field, I don't see him getting an AAV worth more than the 2021 QO of $18.9M. At least, if I were a GM I wouldn't give him that kind of an AAV and I wouldn't have given up the equivalent of a first round pick for two months of him even if the Rockies paid most of his salary.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 01, 2021, 11:32 AM Post
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LouisEly said:
How do you guys know what offers they had?

By not trading him they can negotiate with him at any time to extend his contract without any competing offers. Puts pressure on Story to make a decision and choose a bird-in-hand versus an unknown of what he will get as a FA. Also, what are the chances that Story gets a contract worth more than a QO after this past season with a .655 road OPS (and career sub-.750 road OPS)? I think there's a decent chance that Story accepts the QO to try to redeem his value; if he does, the Rockies can trade him next deadline.

I don't think this is a horrible move by the Rockies, and I think some of you are over-valuing him. For a guy with a sub-.750 career OPS away from Coors field and coming off of a season where so far he has a .655 OPS away from Coors field, I don't see him getting an AAV worth more than the 2021 QO of $18.9M. At least, if I were a GM I wouldn't give him that kind of an AAV and I wouldn't have given up the equivalent of a first round pick for two months of him even if the Rockies paid most of his salary.


He may not get more than the AAV of the QO but I don't see him signing that QO. He is going to reject it and if he has to he will sign a 1-year deal with a player option with someone. I wouldn't be surprised if that team is the Yankees or the Angels. I don't see Story resigning with the Rockies that ship has sailed and has sunk far off the coast somewhere.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 01, 2021, 1:22 PM Post
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Trevor Story scratched himself from Friday night’s game because he was so upset and confused by the Rockies not trading him.

Below are some quotes from this article in the The Athletic by Nick Groke titled, Trevor Story left confused by the Rockies’ trade deadline outcome: ‘I was expecting something’:

“I was really confused. I didn’t have great things to say about the situation,” Story said. “Guys like me in a situation I’m in, I was expecting something. … It was very nerve-racking and time-consuming.”

………

Story will now play out the final two months of his contract in Colorado, then almost certainly leave for a better situation. When asked whether he would entertain an offer from the Rockies for a long-term contract, he said: “I think the writing is on the wall.”


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 02, 2021, 1:56 PM Post
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Eye Black said:
Trevor Story scratched himself from Friday night’s game because he was so upset and confused by the Rockies not trading him.

Below are some quotes from this article in the The Athletic by Nick Groke titled, Trevor Story left confused by the Rockies’ trade deadline outcome: ‘I was expecting something’:

“I was really confused. I didn’t have great things to say about the situation,” Story said. “Guys like me in a situation I’m in, I was expecting something. … It was very nerve-racking and time-consuming.”

………

Story will now play out the final two months of his contract in Colorado, then almost certainly leave for a better situation. When asked whether he would entertain an offer from the Rockies for a long-term contract, he said: “I think the writing is on the wall.”


Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him sign with the Cubs this offseason on a short term deal - not really sure if that would be good or bad for us as Brewer fans, but the Cubs will be needing to add some veteran everyday players to fill out their MLB roster even if they just burned what they had all down. If the offseason FA interest in Story is lukewarm based on a subpar 2021 and a long list of other SS free agents, I can see him signing a 1 yr prove it deal in a big market to build his value back up and get flipped by that noncontending team at next year's deadline.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 02, 2021, 6:04 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:
Eye Black said:
Trevor Story scratched himself from Friday night’s game because he was so upset and confused by the Rockies not trading him.

Below are some quotes from this article in the The Athletic by Nick Groke titled, Trevor Story left confused by the Rockies’ trade deadline outcome: ‘I was expecting something’:

“I was really confused. I didn’t have great things to say about the situation,” Story said. “Guys like me in a situation I’m in, I was expecting something. … It was very nerve-racking and time-consuming.”

………

Story will now play out the final two months of his contract in Colorado, then almost certainly leave for a better situation. When asked whether he would entertain an offer from the Rockies for a long-term contract, he said: “I think the writing is on the wall.”


Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him sign with the Cubs this offseason on a short term deal - not really sure if that would be good or bad for us as Brewer fans, but the Cubs will be needing to add some veteran everyday players to fill out their MLB roster even if they just burned what they had all down. If the offseason FA interest in Story is lukewarm based on a subpar 2021 and a long list of other SS free agents, I can see him signing a 1 yr prove it deal in a big market to build his value back up and get flipped by that noncontending team at next year's deadline.


Uphill battle for Cubs to get top FA if they are saying rebuild.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 02, 2021, 6:32 PM Post
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Not really. "How much are you going to pay me" is quite a bit higher on the question list of prospective free agents than "when do you think you will be contenders again?"

In any event, the large payroll of the Cubs makes it unlikely for them to need numerous years to turn it around.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 02, 2021, 8:17 PM Post
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rickh150 said:
Fear The Chorizo said:
Eye Black said:
Trevor Story scratched himself from Friday night’s game because he was so upset and confused by the Rockies not trading him.

Below are some quotes from this article in the The Athletic by Nick Groke titled, Trevor Story left confused by the Rockies’ trade deadline outcome: ‘I was expecting something’:

“I was really confused. I didn’t have great things to say about the situation,” Story said. “Guys like me in a situation I’m in, I was expecting something. … It was very nerve-racking and time-consuming.”

………

Story will now play out the final two months of his contract in Colorado, then almost certainly leave for a better situation. When asked whether he would entertain an offer from the Rockies for a long-term contract, he said: “I think the writing is on the wall.”


Wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him sign with the Cubs this offseason on a short term deal - not really sure if that would be good or bad for us as Brewer fans, but the Cubs will be needing to add some veteran everyday players to fill out their MLB roster even if they just burned what they had all down. If the offseason FA interest in Story is lukewarm based on a subpar 2021 and a long list of other SS free agents, I can see him signing a 1 yr prove it deal in a big market to build his value back up and get flipped by that noncontending team at next year's deadline.


Uphill battle for Cubs to get top FA if they are saying rebuild.


Story won't be a top FA next offseason - other SS alone include Semien, Seager, Correa, Baez, Crawford that will probably be more coveted than Story. The Cubs will have some $$ and be looking to add a guy they can pay market value on a short term deal with plans to trade him for more prospects....it's the same formula Theo did with the Cubs his first few seasons with them when they were in tank/rebuild mode.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 02, 2021, 8:24 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
Not really. "How much are you going to pay me" is quite a bit higher on the question list of prospective free agents than "when do you think you will be contenders again?"

In any event, the large payroll of the Cubs makes it unlikely for them to need numerous years to turn it around.


Cubs only have about 40 million on the books next year for Heyward, Hendriks, Bote & Arrieta's buyout. Their only notable Arby's guys are Contreras & Happ, who will probably come in a little under 20 million combined.

Cots has their opening day payroll going from 203 million in 2019 to 148 million this year. Of the 14 Cubs prospects FanGraphs has rated a 45 FV or higher their ETAs are 2021 (3), 2022 (2), 2023 (2), 2024 (3) and 2025 (4), with all of the top 5 and 7 of the top 10 having ETAs between 2023-25.

I think the Cubs are in for at least a couple two tree years of lower payrolls than they were running the last five six seasons.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 02, 2021, 8:29 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
adambr2 said:
Not really. "How much are you going to pay me" is quite a bit higher on the question list of prospective free agents than "when do you think you will be contenders again?"

In any event, the large payroll of the Cubs makes it unlikely for them to need numerous years to turn it around.


Cubs only have about 40 million on the books next year for Heyward, Hendriks, Bote & Arrieta's buyout. Their only notable Arby's guys are Contreras & Happ, who will probably come in a little under 20 million combined.

Cots has their opening day payroll going from 203 million in 2019 to 148 million this year. Of the 14 Cubs prospects FanGraphs has rated a 45 FV or higher their ETAs are 2021 (3), 2022 (2), 2023 (2), 2024 (3) and 2025 (4), with all of the top 5 and 7 of the top 10 having ETAs between 2023-25.

I think the Cubs are in for at least a couple two tree years of lower payrolls than they were running the last five six seasons.

I think Michael Baumann summarized it best on the Ringer MLB podcast this week… the Cubs are a real estate development company now.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 03, 2021, 2:27 PM Post
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And the Brewers have Adames. at his contract I'm guessing he will out value all of these guys about to get paid [smile]


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 03, 2021, 2:54 PM Post
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Fear The Chorizo said:

Story won't be a top FA next offseason - other SS alone include Semien, Seager, Correa, Baez, Crawford that will probably be more coveted than Story. The Cubs will have some $$ and be looking to add a guy they can pay market value on a short term deal with plans to trade him for more prospects....it's the same formula Theo did with the Cubs his first few seasons with them when they were in tank/rebuild mode.


Story won't be the top FA SS next off season but he is definitely better than Baez and Crawford looked done in 2019 and had a bounce back year in a shortened 2020 and now looks like his younger self in 2021 but he will be going on his age 35 season next year. I think Story will get a longer contract and more looks than Crawford will next off season.

Whoever signs Baez to a long term contract will be regretting it after the first year at least offensively they will be. Baez just doesn't have any plate discipline at all and as he gets older that is going to kill his value. Story even though he has a bad numbers away from Coors there are still places he could go where that is not going to matter. For example he could go to the Yankees or the Reds and both of those stadiums are going to play similarly to Coors. With Yankee stadium having that short porch in RF any player with some opposite field power is going to love that ball park. I believe there has been recent evidence that the Reds ballpark is far more hitter friendly than even Coors is. If Story goes to the Reds his away splits from Coors will not matter at that ballpark.

I think Story will have more interest than Baez and Crawford in free agency. The top free agents at SS are Seager and Correa who are 1a and 1b with a large gap between Semien and Story. I would put Crawford and Baez at the bottom and I don't see Crawford leaving the Giants. The Giants will more than likely resign Crawford. The teams that I believe will have interest in Story in the off season will be the Braves, Yankees, Reds and Cardinals. Seager and Correa will probably be playing for different teams next year but it won't be with the teams that I listed previously who will be in on Story.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 05, 2021, 10:00 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
adambr2 said:
Not really. "How much are you going to pay me" is quite a bit higher on the question list of prospective free agents than "when do you think you will be contenders again?"

In any event, the large payroll of the Cubs makes it unlikely for them to need numerous years to turn it around.


Cubs only have about 40 million on the books next year for Heyward, Hendriks, Bote & Arrieta's buyout. Their only notable Arby's guys are Contreras & Happ, who will probably come in a little under 20 million combined.

Cots has their opening day payroll going from 203 million in 2019 to 148 million this year. Of the 14 Cubs prospects FanGraphs has rated a 45 FV or higher their ETAs are 2021 (3), 2022 (2), 2023 (2), 2024 (3) and 2025 (4), with all of the top 5 and 7 of the top 10 having ETAs between 2023-25.

I think the Cubs are in for at least a couple two tree years of lower payrolls than they were running the last five six seasons.

I like what I'm assuming your autocorrect did. I'm envisioning Contreras & Happ sitting around in Arby's eating lunch.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 06, 2021, 12:56 PM Post
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That wasn't autocorrect.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 06, 2021, 1:58 PM Post
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Arby's for a quick breakfast is super underrated. Unfortunately it's almost impossible to find one that does breakfast.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 07, 2021, 1:02 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
Guessing because they didn’t want to have to swallow their pride. I really doubt they didn’t get an offer better than a comp pick. How much is a comp pick even ‘worth’? They would have saved $8mil or so selling him off. That alone is probably more valuable than a comp pick.

2013 1 paid Aaron Judge for Yankees.
2014. Cardinals Jack Flaherty.
Red Sox And the uber frustrating Michael Kopech
2015. Braves Mike Sorotka
Pirates KeBrayan Hayes
Orioles Ryan Mountcastle
2016. Padres Eric Lauer
Nationals Dane Dunning
Dodgers Will Smith
Cardinals Dylan Carlson and Dakota Hudson
Nationals former top prospect Rookie Carter Kieboom
2017 Toronto Nate Pearson(#1 team prospect)
2018. Rays Shane Mclanahan

Are Comp picks of note/positivity. Certainly potential to find a gem or at minimum use the draft slot to pay one.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 11, 2021, 4:47 PM Post
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brewcrewdue80 said:
MrTPlush said:
Guessing because they didn’t want to have to swallow their pride. I really doubt they didn’t get an offer better than a comp pick. How much is a comp pick even ‘worth’? They would have saved $8mil or so selling him off. That alone is probably more valuable than a comp pick.

2013 1 paid Aaron Judge for Yankees.
2014. Cardinals Jack Flaherty.
Red Sox And the uber frustrating Michael Kopech
2015. Braves Mike Sorotka
Pirates KeBrayan Hayes
Orioles Ryan Mountcastle
2016. Padres Eric Lauer
Nationals Dane Dunning
Dodgers Will Smith
Cardinals Dylan Carlson and Dakota Hudson
Nationals former top prospect Rookie Carter Kieboom
2017 Toronto Nate Pearson(#1 team prospect)
2018. Rays Shane Mclanahan

Are Comp picks of note/positivity. Certainly potential to find a gem or at minimum use the draft slot to pay one.

Trevor Story himself was the 45th overall pick in 2011. And he wasn't a gross over-slot signing, signing for only $915K.

In theory, the Rockies could draft the next Trevor Story with the comp pick.


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Offline  Re: Trade Deadline Rumors
Posted: August 12, 2021, 6:45 AM Post
Posts: 16141
brewcrewdue80 said:
MrTPlush said:
Guessing because they didn’t want to have to swallow their pride. I really doubt they didn’t get an offer better than a comp pick. How much is a comp pick even ‘worth’? They would have saved $8mil or so selling him off. That alone is probably more valuable than a comp pick.

2013 1 paid Aaron Judge for Yankees.
2014. Cardinals Jack Flaherty.
Red Sox And the uber frustrating Michael Kopech
2015. Braves Mike Sorotka
Pirates KeBrayan Hayes
Orioles Ryan Mountcastle
2016. Padres Eric Lauer
Nationals Dane Dunning
Dodgers Will Smith
Cardinals Dylan Carlson and Dakota Hudson
Nationals former top prospect Rookie Carter Kieboom
2017 Toronto Nate Pearson(#1 team prospect)
2018. Rays Shane Mclanahan

Are Comp picks of note/positivity. Certainly potential to find a gem or at minimum use the draft slot to pay one.


Sure, you can find value. It still doesn't really change the fact $8mil is probably a better deal and the players offered at the deadline would be more likely to amount to something over the compensation pick...especially when also considering you save like $8mil to boot.


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