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Is this offseason time to trade Hader?

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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#21

Posted: September 14, 2021, 6:48 AM Post
Posts: 5324
monty57 said:
Well said. There are a wide range of opinions on the direction the team should go, but he's the one who has to sail the ship.

I would love to be able to keep the current guys together as long as possible, but at the same time I'd hate to go into a decade-long rebuild after losing a massive amount of talent in one offseason without getting something in return.

This board is fun for theorizing what we think may be the best move. Stearns actually has to do this in real life. I'm glad it's him and not me, and I'm excited to see what he does.

As to Hader, we have him for two more years, so my opinion is that this offseason Stearns can do exactly what he did last year. Tell everyone he's available for a big price tag and see if anyone bites. If not, then we have him one more year. As long as the team can afford him, keeping him or trading him this offseason is kind of a win-win proposition. It's the next offseason that the Brewers may be a little more pressured to trade him or risk losing him for nothing.

One thought is whether it might be better to offer contracts to Boxberger and Strickland, who are both FAs at the end of the season. You could probably have both of them for less than Hader costs, so if it came down to one or the other, would you rather keep Boxberger and Strickland, with Williams closing (and get whatever you get from trading Hader), or lose Boxberger and Strickland but hold onto Hader?


That is a very good question. Hader could get very expensive. If the Crew has to pay Hader $15 million a year, but could extend the trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter for a total of $8 million, and have that $7 million available for the farm system and scouting... perhaps it's better to go for the aggregate production, the additional farm/scouting resources, AND whatever haul Hader nets in a trade.

If the Crew can maintain a pipeline of good pitching... it may be smart to make a judicious Hader trade (say, for instance, to an AL team).


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#22

Posted: September 14, 2021, 7:06 AM Post
Posts: 16141
The only problem is I am 95% confident what Hader will do, be one of the best relievers in the game.

Strickland had been garbage since 2017, Boxberger hasn't had this stellar of a season since 2014, and Suter is just a guy. Suter is going on 32, Boxberger is going on 34, and Strickland is going on 33. There is a reason we got these guys for peanuts and their trade value would be peanuts compared to Hader. I don't have a problem trying to bring back Strickland or Boxberger...either could be a solid value resigning. However, expecting them to replace Hader's value (or anything close to it) would be a recipe for disappointment. I would vote them being released by July over them repeating anything near their current results.

Realistically you keep Hader and then go back to diving in the muck for your new Strickland/Boxberger. Hope you can find another diamond in the rough. Even if we traded Hader I am not sure I would want to be spending decent money for mid-30s relievers with terrible track records. Not that I expect either to really find much on the open market. Maybe a 2 year deal.


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Online  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#23

Posted: September 14, 2021, 9:24 AM Post
Posts: 6020
clancyphile said:
monty57 said:
Well said. There are a wide range of opinions on the direction the team should go, but he's the one who has to sail the ship.

I would love to be able to keep the current guys together as long as possible, but at the same time I'd hate to go into a decade-long rebuild after losing a massive amount of talent in one offseason without getting something in return.

This board is fun for theorizing what we think may be the best move. Stearns actually has to do this in real life. I'm glad it's him and not me, and I'm excited to see what he does.

As to Hader, we have him for two more years, so my opinion is that this offseason Stearns can do exactly what he did last year. Tell everyone he's available for a big price tag and see if anyone bites. If not, then we have him one more year. As long as the team can afford him, keeping him or trading him this offseason is kind of a win-win proposition. It's the next offseason that the Brewers may be a little more pressured to trade him or risk losing him for nothing.

One thought is whether it might be better to offer contracts to Boxberger and Strickland, who are both FAs at the end of the season. You could probably have both of them for less than Hader costs, so if it came down to one or the other, would you rather keep Boxberger and Strickland, with Williams closing (and get whatever you get from trading Hader), or lose Boxberger and Strickland but hold onto Hader?


That is a very good question. Hader could get very expensive. If the Crew has to pay Hader $15 million a year, but could extend the trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter for a total of $8 million, and have that $7 million available for the farm system and scouting... perhaps it's better to go for the aggregate production, the additional farm/scouting resources, AND whatever haul Hader nets in a trade.

If the Crew can maintain a pipeline of good pitching... it may be smart to make a judicious Hader trade (say, for instance, to an AL team).


I'm not saying either option is one the Brewers should pursue - I don't like the idea of paying Hader $15M a season as he ages into his 30s, but I'd much rather do that than extend replaceable relievers for any length of time and cost. The trio of Strickland/Boxberger/Suter can be replaced with league minimum or pre-arbitration relievers once they start getting even close to expensive. Giving a mid 30's journeyman reliever any sort of longterm extension is questionable with how volatile relievers of that caliber can be. I could see an attempt to give Suter a reasonable extension for a few more seasons if he'd be open to it, but he may actually want to find an organization that gives him another shot as a starter (and likely a larger contract offer).

I've been firmly in the camp of holding onto Hader through arbitration for several years, and trade him only if the Brewers aren't in contention at the trade deadline of his free agent year. He's too valuable to the success of this team to consider trading him when they have any thoughts of contending, which will remain the case for the forseeable future, and sometimes the best value you can get for a player is to have him pitch for you all the way to free agency and then not make the mistake of paying him a huge amount of money in free agency to watch him pitch in your uniform as he declines.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#24

Posted: September 14, 2021, 10:33 AM Post
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Hader's taken his dominance up a full notch this year, here's how his four non-pandemic seasons stack up...

2017 | 47 IP | 47 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 1.8 rWAR | 1.1 fWAR | 1.44 WPA
2018 | 81 IP | 60 ERA- | 54 FIP- | 2.6 rWAR | 2.6 fWAR | 3.30 WPA
2019 | 75 IP | 59 ERA- | 70 FIP- | 2.7 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | 3.15 WPA
2021 | 50 IP | 34 ERA- | 41 FIP- | 2.8 rWAR | 2.2 fWAR | 4.43 WPA

Anytime you decrease workload by 33% but increase Win Probability Added by 33%, you are doing something very right.

Even if Josh gets 15 million in Arby's, he's worth every single curly fry.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#25

Posted: September 14, 2021, 10:55 AM Post
Posts: 919
Same approach as we’ve had the past few seasons- trade him if someone’s willing to pay a king’s ransom. Otherwise, no rush to send him out.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#26

Posted: September 16, 2021, 8:51 AM Post
Posts: 1117
Unless some team offers a lop sided haul, you don’t trade Hader. Regardless of what he costs in Arby. It’s a one year deal that won’t hinder the team long term.

Hader is elite pitchers, not just relievers, in value. If you’re serious about winning in a window, Hader is closing games for this team.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#27

Posted: September 16, 2021, 10:06 AM Post
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ThisIsMyCrew said:
Unless some team offers a lop sided haul, you don’t trade Hader. Regardless of what he costs in Arby. It’s a one year deal that won’t hinder the team long term.

Hader is elite pitchers, not just relievers, in value. If you’re serious about winning in a window, Hader is closing games for this team.


True.

However, if you are serious about maintaining continued success over the long term, which is what Attanasio and Stearns have repeatedly stated as their goal, then they will eventually trade away star players rather than have them leave for nothing in free agency.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#28

Posted: September 16, 2021, 12:05 PM Post
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monty57 said:
ThisIsMyCrew said:
Unless some team offers a lop sided haul, you don’t trade Hader. Regardless of what he costs in Arby. It’s a one year deal that won’t hinder the team long term.

Hader is elite pitchers, not just relievers, in value. If you’re serious about winning in a window, Hader is closing games for this team.


True.

However, if you are serious about maintaining continued success over the long term, which is what Attanasio and Stearns have repeatedly stated as their goal, then they will eventually trade away star players rather than have them leave for nothing in free agency.

I think it comes down to two things. First, if someone blows you away with a trade offer - go for it. Second, what the Brewers expectations? We will likely go into 2022 believing we can do big things. In that case, Hader should be a part of the team. If at the trade deadline next year (or next offseason or 2023 mid-season), the team has faltered for whatever reason - well, then you move Josh. Hader is gold for a team hoping to win it all. But if we falter - well, then he's a luxury - and you look to deal.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#29

Posted: September 16, 2021, 12:49 PM Post
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reillymcshane said:
I think it comes down to two things. First, if someone blows you away with a trade offer - go for it. Second, what the Brewers expectations? We will likely go into 2022 believing we can do big things. In that case, Hader should be a part of the team. If at the trade deadline next year (or next offseason or 2023 mid-season), the team has faltered for whatever reason - well, then you move Josh. Hader is gold for a team hoping to win it all. But if we falter - well, then he's a luxury - and you look to deal.


I agree. I mentioned earlier that this offseason they should treat Hader just like they did last year. Put him on the market with a high price tag. If someone is willing to pay it, great. If not, then they play 2022 with Hader as the closer.

Assuming he's not traded, then next offseason will be the one where they are more pressured to trade him, as they would only have him for one more year. I personally don't think that they'd get that much more for trading him this offseason than next offseason, so as long as they can afford his contract, I don't see a lot of pressure to trade him. Therefore, they'd need to get a huge return for him in order for him to be traded this offseason.

However, with their stated goal of remaining continually competitive, I don't think that they will hold their star players (Hader, Burnes, Woodruff, Adames, etc.) to free agency, as that would mean they would be willing to suffer through a long, painful rebuild. I don't believe that's the plan. Rather, I think they'll look for moves like the Gomez trade, where they can flip their star players for a package that brings back some young MLB-ready talent as well as some good minor league prospects, thereby remaining competitive at the MLB level, while strengthening their farm for the future.

But, I think that we should be pretty "safe" this offseason, with most of our guys (not including "rentals" like Escobar) coming back for another round next year.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#30

Posted: September 16, 2021, 1:14 PM Post
Posts: 5828
Location: Madison, WI
I'd guess they feel they can replace the Strickland/Box types each year for near league min costs (rather than overpaying these guys) due to their scouting and how they've been so good at identifying these types. And as long as you have Hader as the insurance policy at the end of pen you can spend a couple months sorting out the guys in front of him.

So, I'd guess it's a king's ransom or they just keep Hader and try to win it why they have him. And I'd add in that king's ransom would likely have to be a long term controlled fix of 1B/3B they really like who's ready to play now. Basically that it won't be prospects only. I'm generally happy with Urias at 3B if needed, but team would be super strong if Urias could be your Taylor from LAD type going forward. Where he plays starter level but at a ton of different position backing up 'starters' and filling in for injuries.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#31

Posted: September 16, 2021, 2:33 PM Post
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Location: Madison Wi
I think sterns know that the likelihood of keeping Corbin and Woody after their years of arby are not very high. The reality is the brewers are in a 2-3 year window where they have a legit shot to win it all. Who knows when that will happen again. This team is better with Hader being apart of the team. I think the only way he should traded would be if it makes the major league team better which would be almost impossible.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#32

Posted: September 17, 2021, 8:22 AM Post
Posts: 3550
It's great what Boxberger and Strickland have done this year but I have little confidence it will repeat next year. Quite honestly don't think what they do with those guys should have any impact on what they do with Hader. King's ransom or just keep him for this World Series window.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#33

Posted: September 29, 2021, 9:34 PM Post
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With William's injury, I think it's less likely the team considers trading Hader this off season since Williams likely would have taken the closer role. Can't say it won't happen - the Williams' injury might make a deal less likely.


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Online  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#34

Posted: September 30, 2021, 5:33 AM Post
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reillymcshane said:
With William's injury, I think it's less likely the team considers trading Hader this off season since Williams likely would have taken the closer role. Can't say it won't happen - the Williams' injury might make a deal less likely.


It all depends on how Williams recovers from the injury. The guy does things with the baseball that very few people are able to do. Will that change now that he needs surgery to fix broken bones in his pitching hand? That remains to be seen.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#35

Posted: September 30, 2021, 7:38 AM Post
Posts: 344
I think the Brewers might try to find a way to buy out Hader's arbitration years and in exchange extend his deal by one more season. Would put Josh under contract for the next 4 seasons and make him an UFA after the 2025 season, which is the same time as Woodruff and Burnes.

Would be benefits to both sides. Hader gets the security of not having to play the arbitration game anymore and still hits UFA when he is 31. Brewers then align his contract with both Woodruff and Burnes and solidifies their 2-3 year window before having to think about potential trades & rebuilding.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#36

Posted: September 30, 2021, 8:41 AM Post
Posts: 2269
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
reillymcshane said:
With William's injury, I think it's less likely the team considers trading Hader this off season since Williams likely would have taken the closer role. Can't say it won't happen - the Williams' injury might make a deal less likely.


It all depends on how Williams recovers from the injury. The guy does things with the baseball that very few people are able to do. Will that change now that he needs surgery to fix broken bones in his pitching hand? That remains to be seen.


Even if he comes back from injury fine, how can you trust him going forward? Nope, can't trade Hader this offseason now.


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Online  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#37

Posted: September 30, 2021, 8:43 AM Post
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Roderick said:
Ron Robinson's Beard said:
reillymcshane said:
With William's injury, I think it's less likely the team considers trading Hader this off season since Williams likely would have taken the closer role. Can't say it won't happen - the Williams' injury might make a deal less likely.


It all depends on how Williams recovers from the injury. The guy does things with the baseball that very few people are able to do. Will that change now that he needs surgery to fix broken bones in his pitching hand? That remains to be seen.


Even if he comes back from injury fine, how can you trust him going forward? Nope, can't trade Hader this offseason now.


So the guy makes a stupid mistake and punches a wall ... and now cannot be trusted under any circumstance going forward? Wow, tough crowd.


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#38

Posted: September 30, 2021, 10:58 AM Post
Posts: 599
Grisham made one mistake and we traded him


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Offline  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#39

Posted: September 30, 2021, 10:58 AM Post
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That might be extreme, but at this moment in time, yeah, he can't be trusted with common sense...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Online  Re: Is this offseason time to trade Hader?
#40

Posted: September 30, 2021, 11:00 AM Post
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mlloyd10 said:
Grisham made one mistake and we traded him


Different circumstance. And also ... they didn't dump him. They got a lot of value in return. Which leads me to believe that his error in the WC game had nothing to do with him getting dealt.


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