LambeauLeap1250 WSSP


  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  [ 52 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply

Houser, Lauer

Author Message
Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#41

Posted: September 09, 2021, 1:49 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 4466
adambr2 said:
I mean Grisham is worth far more than Lauer given WAR and service time. The Padres would never do it anyway, although it would be hilarious. You could not possibly be selling higher on Lauer if DS pulled off a deal like that.

I get what you're saying in a vacuum but obviously it depends on the quality of both players plus salary, service time, all those other things.


Grisham is basically a year younger than Lauer and has one extra year of arb control. Those factors do provide value, but I don't know if they make Grisham worth "far more" than Lauer. It comes down to what a GM values more ... a solid mid-rotation lefty starter (Lauer's safe ceiling) or an centerfielder that may top out as an .800 OPS guy. (pretty safe ceiling for Grisham). And can Grisham stay at CF long term, because his production loses some value if forced to put him in a corner.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#42

Posted: September 09, 2021, 1:55 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 6205
OldHeidelberg said:
I don't see them trading Woodruff, Burnes or Hader unless the wheels come off and they are selling at some trade deadline. That could happen as soon as next season but doesn't see likely, even then you only trade them for a monster return and only one of Burnes/Woodruff. We have waited too long to develop pitchers, we should be talking about taking the payroll to $140-150 million if needed over the next 3 years rather than trading these guys. Houser/Lauer? Only as part of a deal that brings back major league talent to fill holes.


You can't just magically raise the payroll. Attanasio has done a lot to get the payroll to higher levels than it has ever been, but there are limits and the Brewers are likely to blow past those limits if our guys continue to play well and get the arby increases that go along with good play.

There is a reason the Rays don't just push their payroll up to "put the nail in the coffin" of the Yankees and Red Sox. Small market teams just can't do that.

As much as it stinks to think that we'll have to trade away some good players because we can't afford them, the Brewers will need to "act like the Rays" or they'll get swallowed up. The good thing is that the Rays have shown that trading away good players doesn't mean that the team will be bad. The return you get from those trades allows the team to remain continually competitive, which is the stated goal of Stearns and Attansio.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#43

Posted: September 09, 2021, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 1576
monty57 said:
OldHeidelberg said:
I don't see them trading Woodruff, Burnes or Hader unless the wheels come off and they are selling at some trade deadline. That could happen as soon as next season but doesn't see likely, even then you only trade them for a monster return and only one of Burnes/Woodruff. We have waited too long to develop pitchers, we should be talking about taking the payroll to $140-150 million if needed over the next 3 years rather than trading these guys. Houser/Lauer? Only as part of a deal that brings back major league talent to fill holes.


You can't just magically raise the payroll. Attanasio has done a lot to get the payroll to higher levels than it has ever been, but there are limits and the Brewers are likely to blow past those limits if our guys continue to play well and get the arby increases that go along with good play.

There is a reason the Rays don't just push their payroll up to "put the nail in the coffin" of the Yankees and Red Sox. Small market teams just can't do that.

As much as it stinks to think that we'll have to trade away some good players because we can't afford them, the Brewers will need to "act like the Rays" or they'll get swallowed up. The good thing is that the Rays have shown that trading away good players doesn't mean that the team will be bad. The return you get from those trades allows the team to remain continually competitive, which is the stated goal of Stearns and Attansio.


I didn't mean to bring up something that I think has probably been beaten to death here but if we can have $50 million payrolls during rebuilds we can have $150 million payrolls during high points. It's not magic, there is no cap and owners can spend their own money and push for a title if they want to. I am sure they can borrow and run in the red if needed too. Losing sure isn't going to increase revenue. I said if needed only to make the point that it has to make sense, we obviously can't outspend the Dodgers. But if we are trading Woodruff or Burnes only because payroll is capped at $100 million and they can't afford them then in my mind fans are justified to walk away and spend their money on Bucks/Packers tickets. Again, I am not trying to start that debate here again, just don't agree that it takes magic to increase payroll in MLB. It's certainly possible we are cursed with owners who just really can't afford to lose money on the team for a few years but I wish they would sell it then.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#44

Posted: September 09, 2021, 3:01 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 11987
OldHeidelberg said:
I didn't mean to bring up something that I think has probably been beaten to death


You've got that right. My usual takeaway is that opinions are opinions, not facts.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#45

Posted: September 09, 2021, 3:12 PM Post
User avatar
Posts: 17234
Location: Milwaukee, WI
OldHeidelberg said:
It's certainly possible we are cursed with owners who just really can't afford to lose money on the team for a few years but I wish they would sell it then.


These are things that peeve me. We have watched this ownership group put out the best run of Brewers baseball there’s ever been and still this crap.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#46

Posted: September 09, 2021, 3:52 PM Post
Posts: 1576
Brew4U said:
OldHeidelberg said:
It's certainly possible we are cursed with owners who just really can't afford to lose money on the team for a few years but I wish they would sell it then.


These are things that peeve me. We have watched this ownership group put out the best run of Brewers baseball there’s ever been and still this crap.


They went to $125 million in a recent year I believe, my comment you quoted was in response to the idea that they could not go to $140-150 million to make a run behind this rotation if needed. I honestly think they can and would if they felt it would put them over the top. But yes, seeing how you responded that last comment probably should have been left out as the context wasn't very clear.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#47

Posted: September 09, 2021, 5:47 PM Post
Posts: 26750
There are definitely MLB franchises and owners that sit on piles of cash and don't prioritize winning. That clearly doesn't happen here under Mark A. Does he make money off the Brewers, I'm sure he does. He is a businessman and I certainly don't expect him to operate the franchise at a loss.

What they can afford to spend on a year to year basis I will leave between him and his accountants. As long as he is making an earnest effort to invest money and resources in quality players to put a winning product on the field and not solely looking to profit off the team with no intention to invest in a winning team, that is good enough for me.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#48

Posted: September 09, 2021, 10:01 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 7974
RoCoBrewfan said:
Brew4U said:
Trade none and just pound teams series after series with a 6-man rotation.

Woody
Peralta
Lauer
Burnes
Houser
Ashby

When Small is ready, you think about trading OR stick Houser in the pen and have at it. Keep the arms and continue to keep winning a lot of baseball games.


Put Small in the pen and bring him along the same way they've done with the rest of these successful starters they're developing. Keep Houser, a good mid to back end of the rotation guy in the rotation until the results show he's not suited for that role.


This is how I see things playing out. Ashby replaces Anderson. That gives you six guys - just like this year. It seems to have worked out pretty well.

Small then plays the Ashby role as needed.

To me, that's pretty sweet.

Now, that said, if someone comes with you with a deal you love in exchange for Lauer or Houser - sure - do it. But otherwise, this is a rotation we can ride. I'd do that - and then sign a bat (such as Escobar).


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#49

Posted: September 14, 2021, 7:09 AM Post
Posts: 5348
Who says it's impossible to keep the big three?
I wonder if offering Woodruff an 8-year, $120 million deal, with $40 million deferred ($2 million a year for 20 years after the contract) and an option year at $20 million with a $5 million buyout might not be a bad idea.

Hear me out - as an 11th round pick, he probably didn't get a huge bonus. He's 28, so why not buy out the arby and some free agency, and at the same time, lock him down with Peralta?

It might be a little more difficult with Burnes, since he got around $540K as his bonus as a 4th-round pick and he's younger than Woodruff (26), but could he go for a similar deal?


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#50

Posted: September 14, 2021, 7:54 AM Post
Posts: 16230
clancyphile said:
Who says it's impossible to keep the big three?
I wonder if offering Woodruff an 8-year, $120 million deal, with $40 million deferred ($2 million a year for 20 years after the contract) and an option year at $20 million with a $5 million buyout might not be a bad idea.

Hear me out - as an 11th round pick, he probably didn't get a huge bonus. He's 28, so why not buy out the arby and some free agency, and at the same time, lock him down with Peralta?

It might be a little more difficult with Burnes, since he got around $540K as his bonus as a 4th-round pick and he's younger than Woodruff (26), but could he go for a similar deal?


He has already made $4.4mil in his career. His elbow could blow tomorrow and he would still make another $20mil or so minimum because the Brewers would offer him arby next year to rehab and then the year after when he can pitch again.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#51

Posted: September 14, 2021, 9:01 AM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 6205
clancyphile said:
Who says it's impossible to keep the big three?
I wonder if offering Woodruff an 8-year, $120 million deal, with $40 million deferred ($2 million a year for 20 years after the contract) and an option year at $20 million with a $5 million buyout might not be a bad idea.

Hear me out - as an 11th round pick, he probably didn't get a huge bonus. He's 28, so why not buy out the arby and some free agency, and at the same time, lock him down with Peralta?

It might be a little more difficult with Burnes, since he got around $540K as his bonus as a 4th-round pick and he's younger than Woodruff (26), but could he go for a similar deal?


Some notable SP AAV contracts:

Gerritt Cole - $36,000,000
Stephen Strasburg - $35,000,000
Zack Wheeler - $23,600,000
Hyun-Jin Ryu - $20,000,000
Trevor Bauer - $34,000,000
Kershaw - $31,000,000
Scherzer - $34,603,480


I understand that Woodruff has some arby years remaining, but the way he's been pitching the past couple of seasons, he has to be eyeing a $30,000,000 free agent contract, and he ought to be getting some pretty hefty arby increases over the next few seasons. At his age, he knows he'll only get one shot at a big free agent contract, so I highly doubt that 8-years / $120M would be enticing enough for him, especially if you're deferring much of the pay out over twenty years. That AAV is $15,000,000, and he'll probably be making that much or more in years three and four of arby.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#52

Posted: September 14, 2021, 5:31 PM Post
User avatar
Global Moderator
Posts: 10083
Woodruff is not signing a long term deal for 15 million AAV. Nope.


 Top
 
Quote   Reply 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3  [ 52 posts ]  New Topic   Add Reply
  


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: MadThinker88 and 12 guests

You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search this forum (phpBB search):
Jump to:  
Search entire board (Google search):
Google
Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Group
Test