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Houser, Lauer

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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#21

Posted: September 07, 2021, 9:14 PM Post
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Trade Lauer to the Padres for Trent Grisham.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#22

Posted: September 07, 2021, 10:32 PM Post
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MrTPlush said:
NYChez said:
patrickgpe said:
I think these guys are more valuable than what they gave up for adames. I don’t see the reason to trade either given their recent history and salary for 2022.

The question is if there’s another Adames that could be gotten for Houser and Lauer, do you make the trade? (And then who are the potential Adameses?)


It’s important to remember what Adames value was at the time of the trade and also his perceived potential/future production. It certainly wasn’t anywhere near a .900 OPS…and maybe in the long run it isn’t that.

99/100 times you aren’t going to make such a trade and have a guy with a .900 OPS playing SS.

I’d trade Houser or Lauer for another Adames every day of the week…but for the value that was perceived at the time of that trade…? Not so obvious


Absolutely zero question that you should trade a Lauer or a Houser for a pre-trade Adames (setting aside how many years of team control are at issue). Adames had tremendous value at the time of that trade. He was an elite prospect within the last couple years and was excellent as recently as 2020. The Rays panicked and sold low. I don't understand why there are still people trying to rationalize that trade for the Rays.

Recent top 15-20 prospect in baseball

2019 WAR per 162 games: 4.2 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR

2020 WAR per 162 games: 6.0 rWAR, 4.5 fWAR


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#23

Posted: September 08, 2021, 6:21 AM Post
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SRB said:
MrTPlush said:
It’s important to remember what Adames value was at the time of the trade and also his perceived potential/future production. It certainly wasn’t anywhere near a .900 OPS…and maybe in the long run it isn’t that.

99/100 times you aren’t going to make such a trade and have a guy with a .900 OPS playing SS.

I’d trade Houser or Lauer for another Adames every day of the week…but for the value that was perceived at the time of that trade…? Not so obvious


Absolutely zero question that you should trade a Lauer or a Houser for a pre-trade Adames (setting aside how many years of team control are at issue). Adames had tremendous value at the time of that trade. He was an elite prospect within the last couple years and was excellent as recently as 2020. The Rays panicked and sold low. I don't understand why there are still people trying to rationalize that trade for the Rays.

Recent top 15-20 prospect in baseball

2019 WAR per 162 games: 4.2 rWAR, 3.1 fWAR

2020 WAR per 162 games: 6.0 rWAR, 4.5 fWAR


Panicked, or were eager for their wunderkind prospect Franco to be in the majors?

Honestly, to get two very good relief pitchers in Rasmussen (who I think becomes a right-handed Hader) and Feyerisen for a few years is not a BAD return for Adames... and to be honest, giving up Rasmussen is still a little painful.

Said pain will go away when the Crew extends Adames.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#24

Posted: September 08, 2021, 7:13 AM Post
Posts: 2269
umphrey said:
Trade Woodruff for a mega deal and keep Lauer and Hauser [devil]


I am willing to pull this trigger, as long as we get the haul. I think Burnes, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Ashby would still be a top starting rotation in 2022 with Small/Lindblom/Bettinger/Hardy as emergency starters and the next man in. Plus you can probably include an almost MLB ready pitcher in the trade if you have concerns.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#25

Posted: September 08, 2021, 7:30 AM Post
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HOUSER, it's HOUSER...

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#26

Posted: September 08, 2021, 2:08 PM Post
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Location: At the gettin' place
NYChez said:
Trade Lauer to the Padres for Trent Grisham.



Eh. Maybe.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#27

Posted: September 08, 2021, 2:37 PM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
StearnsFTW said:
NYChez said:
Trade Lauer to the Padres for Trent Grisham.



Eh. Maybe.


Starting Pitching >>>>>>> outfielder


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#28

Posted: September 08, 2021, 8:07 PM Post
Posts: 2437
turborickey said:
HOUSER, it's HOUSER...


Ritchie Sexton approves.


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Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#29

Posted: September 09, 2021, 7:10 AM Post
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Brew4U said:
Trade none and just pound teams series after series with a 6-man rotation.

Woody
Peralta
Lauer
Burnes
Houser
Ashby

When Small is ready, you think about trading OR stick Houser in the pen and have at it. Keep the arms and continue to keep winning a lot of baseball games.


Put Small in the pen and bring him along the same way they've done with the rest of these successful starters they're developing. Keep Houser, a good mid to back end of the rotation guy in the rotation until the results show he's not suited for that role.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#30

Posted: September 09, 2021, 7:45 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
RoCoBrewfan said:
Brew4U said:
Trade none and just pound teams series after series with a 6-man rotation.

Woody
Peralta
Lauer
Burnes
Houser
Ashby

When Small is ready, you think about trading OR stick Houser in the pen and have at it. Keep the arms and continue to keep winning a lot of baseball games.


Put Small in the pen and bring him along the same way they've done with the rest of these successful starters they're developing. Keep Houser, a good mid to back end of the rotation guy in the rotation until the results show he's not suited for that role.

This also is a great option. Just smother teams series after series with very good to great pitchers. Don't let opponents breathe.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#31

Posted: September 09, 2021, 7:46 AM Post
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It's very similar to the Braves' model in the 90s. Passable offense coupled with rotations/staff that were absolutely devastatingly effective. Won them a WS and got them a bunch of additional swings at it....


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Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#32

Posted: September 09, 2021, 8:47 AM Post
Posts: 6020
Stearns and company have turned the Brewers' organization from one that needed to either trade tons of prospect capital for quality starting pitching or shell out large portions of their payroll budget for middling veteran starters to fill out a serviceable rotation surrounding a homegrown core of hit first position players into the exact opposite.

It wasn't long ago when we as Brewer fans lamented the organization not being able to develop or acquire even average pitching talent that would reach Milwaukee with multiple seasons of team-friendly pre-arbitration control. One thing to add to the Braves comparison is having a good defense behind that pitching staff.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#33

Posted: September 09, 2021, 9:27 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
A ripple effect of having the starting pitching and pen that we have is that we may have some players, who might not otherwise, consider playing in Milwaukee. If you know going into a season that your pitching is top 3 in the league, you have a shot at some great things.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#34

Posted: September 09, 2021, 10:34 AM Post
Posts: 12873
Roderick said:
umphrey said:
Trade Woodruff for a mega deal and keep Lauer and Hauser [devil]


I am willing to pull this trigger, as long as we get the haul. I think Burnes, Peralta, Lauer, Houser, Ashby would still be a top starting rotation in 2022 with Small/Lindblom/Bettinger/Hardy as emergency starters and the next man in. Plus you can probably include an almost MLB ready pitcher in the trade if you have concerns.


After Small, I'd put File next in line. But if you trade Woodruff, you will likely get a starter who's close to the major leagues as part of the deal. Maybe not a top 75 type prospect but certainly a guy who projects as a 4-5th starter perhaps as soon as mid 2022. Woodruff should have tons of value given record, age and control not to mention durability.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#35

Posted: September 09, 2021, 11:02 AM Post
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If we can only get a pitching prospect that projects as a #4 or #5, we better damn well be getting a prospect that projects REALLY HIGH on offense.

#4 and #5 guys are not guys I'd consider as big pieces in a Woodruff trade. They'd need to be throw ins at this point.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#36

Posted: September 09, 2021, 11:10 AM Post
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Location: Milwaukee, WI
turborickey said:
If we can only get a pitching prospect that projects as a #4 or #5, we better damn well be getting a prospect that projects REALLY HIGH on offense.

#4 and #5 guys are not guys I'd consider as big pieces in a Woodruff trade. They'd need to be throw ins at this point.


Yep, that list for players we trade for starts and ends here.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#37

Posted: September 09, 2021, 12:58 PM Post
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You should be building around Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta, not trading them away. Remember all the years trying to get TOR starters? Why are we trying to get rid of them to keep Houser and Lauer?

When Houser starts getting expensive (and hopefully he does because it means he is pitching well), you trade him and keep backfilling with Ashby, Small, etc...

Spend the $$ on the top tier players, fill around them for the rest.


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Online  Re: Houser, Lauer
#38

Posted: September 09, 2021, 1:22 PM Post
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I don't see them trading Woodruff, Burnes or Hader unless the wheels come off and they are selling at some trade deadline. That could happen as soon as next season but doesn't see likely, even then you only trade them for a monster return and only one of Burnes/Woodruff. We have waited too long to develop pitchers, we should be talking about taking the payroll to $140-150 million if needed over the next 3 years rather than trading these guys. Houser/Lauer? Only as part of a deal that brings back major league talent to fill holes.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#39

Posted: September 09, 2021, 1:40 PM Post
Posts: 26360
Brew4U said:
StearnsFTW said:
NYChez said:
Trade Lauer to the Padres for Trent Grisham.



Eh. Maybe.


Starting Pitching >>>>>>> outfielder


I mean Grisham is worth far more than Lauer given WAR and service time. The Padres would never do it anyway, although it would be hilarious. You could not possibly be selling higher on Lauer if DS pulled off a deal like that.

I get what you're saying in a vacuum but obviously it depends on the quality of both players plus salary, service time, all those other things.


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Offline  Re: Houser, Lauer
#40

Posted: September 09, 2021, 1:47 PM Post
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CheezWizHed said:
You should be building around Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta, not trading them away. Remember all the years trying to get TOR starters? Why are we trying to get rid of them to keep Houser and Lauer?

When Houser starts getting expensive (and hopefully he does because it means he is pitching well), you trade him and keep backfilling with Ashby, Small, etc...

Spend the $$ on the top tier players, fill around them for the rest.


It really depends on how the money shakes out. We'll have Yelich on the books throughout the timeframe of "The Big Three" pitchers, making $26M/year. Peralta will be making $2.48M, $3.7M, and $5.7M so he's helping the payroll picture.

Among others, Adames and Burnes will enter year 1 arby next year, and Woodruff will be entering his 2nd (of 4) arby year. If they continue their MVP/Cy Young performances, they could be making a lot of money by 2023 to go along with Yelich's $26M plus the arby raises of the rest of the team.

So, money is a big factor as to why they may trade star players while they are still in their arby years. The other reason is that after 2024 we would lose Peralta, Adames, Burnes and Woodruff for nothing more than a comp pick (assuming the new CBA still allows for the comp pick). Holding all of them to free agency would be the ultimate of "window" strategies, and we would be a basement dweller for years if we went that route.

I would be surprised if any of our pitchers are dealt this offseason. We'll lose Anderson to free agency, and go into 2022 with a very strong rotation and Asby and Small waiting in the wings as insurance. After next year, I'm sure there will be some desire to make a trade, especially if everyone is still pitching well and Ashby and Small are ready. By 2023, I think at least one of Burnes / Woodruff will be traded for a big return, and the other will probably be traded prior to their final arby year, as I don't see either of them signing an extension. If they keep pitching well, both of them will bring back a load of young talent that will keep the Brewers in contention for a long time.

As to trading Lauer or Houser this offseason, you need to have a lot of depth to make it through an MLB season, and the 2022 Brewers should have it. After losing Anderson to FA, trading either of Houser or Lauer would be risky, as it would take away that depth. It would take a huge return for it to make sense, so I think both of them will remain on the team, and Ashby and Small will start next year in AAA. There will be injuries, and Ashby will get a lot of MLB starts even if we retain all of our starting pitchers.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

~Bill Walsh


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