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2022 Bad Contracts

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Offline  2022 Bad Contracts
#1

Posted: October 11, 2021, 2:07 PM Post
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What a shame to see the pitching talent go to waste this year … & likely next year too

A small market team like the Brewers can’t afford to sign good players for 1B & 3B while carrying bad contracts like Cain, JBJ, & most of all Yelich

I fear 2022 will be a similar year as 2021 - good pitching with unbearable offense

Milwaukee will likely be competitive in a mediocre NL Central, but to win the World Series they must have better bats

Anyone who thinks Yelich will “bounce back” next year is more fan than realist … he’s been terrible for two years since the kneecap incident

Yes, he was remarkable in 2018 & 2019 … he should have been MVP both years … but today he is terrible - not bad, not in a slump, but terrible … no confidence, no power

Taylor is currently the better player - offensively & defensively

I can’t imagine any scenario where the Brewers are able to unload any of these bad contracts

No team would be willing to take on Cain at his age … & he’s the best of the three when you consider his defense & average bat

JBJ has been indescribably good on defense but equally bad offensively

Yelich … I have no words … nice guy, great smile … washed as a player

How can Milwaukee overcome these three bad contracts to add quality bats without giving away their strength & parting with one of their ace pitchers

What a shame


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#2

Posted: October 11, 2021, 2:40 PM Post
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Never despair before its officially over

Gonna get in a lotta trouble that way

Give it some time

You gotta have some faith

Up is the only way the offense can go from here

Never doesn't mean it has to be like this forever

Gonna take time to get things figured out

Let things play out a little longer

You think we could trade some guys from the minors for MLB bats

Down goes another Miller's High Life after that game


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#3

Posted: October 11, 2021, 4:45 PM Post
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I’m not sure what exactly we’re supposed to do here, but entering 2022 these appear to be currently projected as the worst remaining contracts in baseball…

Stephen Strasburg: 5 years, $177 million remaining

Christian Yelich: 8 years, $188.5 million remaining

Anthony Rendon: 5 years, $188 million remaining

Francisco Lindor: 10 years, $301 million remaining

Patrick Corbin: 3 years, $83 million remaining

Miguel Cabrera: 2 years, $64 million remaining

Giancarlo Stanton: 6 years, $164 million remaining

Eric Hosmer: 4 years, $60 million remaining

Trevor Bauer: 2 years, $78 million remaining

Madison Bumgarner: 3 years, $56 million remaining

Mookie Betts: 10 years, $342.5 million remaining

Jason Heyward: 2 years, $44 million remaining

Robinson Cano: 3 years, $40.5 million remaining

Joey Votto: 3 years, $57 million remaining

Josh Donaldson: 3 years, $50 million remaining

Mike Moustakas: 2 years, $32 million remaining

Nolan Arenado: 6 years, $142.5 million remaining

D.J. LeMahieu: 5 years, $75 million remaining

Justin Upton: 1 year, $28 million remaining

Evan Longoria: 1 year, $26.5 million remaining

Charlie Blackmon: 2 years, $31 million remaining

Dallas Keuchel: 2 years, $19.5 million remaining


Not actually as many truly awful contracts as I thought. Teams certainly seem to be getting a little wiser regarding the long-term contracts that have a chance to become an albatross.

BTW, Cain’s 1 year at $18 million and JBJ’s 1 year at $17 million would both probably project somewhere between 25th to 35th worst on the list of negative value contracts.

So I think to your point, the Brewers do have more than their share of bad contracts for 2022. The good news is they currently only project to have one of them on the books for 2023 and beyond.

If you’re looking to simply swap bad contracts some targets could be Scott Kingery (2 years, $15 million) or Hunter Dozier (4 years, $22 million).


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#4

Posted: October 11, 2021, 5:35 PM Post
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I think Yelich might still be tradeable, at this point I would probably happily throw in prospects to do it


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#5

Posted: October 11, 2021, 5:47 PM Post
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Yelich has a full no trade clause.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#6

Posted: October 11, 2021, 6:02 PM Post

Tom Petty Apologist
Posts: 693
Brewers should probably not extend guys who are already signed, into their 30s to franchise record deals. It was a surprise when the extension was announced. I wasn’t even thinking about Yelich long term. When does the official extension start next year or 2023?


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#7

Posted: October 11, 2021, 7:30 PM Post
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sveumrules said:
Yelich has a full no trade clause.



He might want to leave and start fresh someplace else, you never know.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#8

Posted: October 11, 2021, 9:28 PM Post

Tom Petty Apologist
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Pretend for a minute the Yankees have Lewis Brinson. Yelich for Brinson straight up. Who says no?


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#9

Posted: October 11, 2021, 9:36 PM Post
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JackNicholson1974 said:
Pretend for a minute the Yankees have Lewis Brinson. Yelich for Brinson straight up. Who says no?


I don't see Yelich waiving his NTC to go to NYC.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#10

Posted: October 11, 2021, 9:41 PM Post

Tom Petty Apologist
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sveumrules said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
Pretend for a minute the Yankees have Lewis Brinson. Yelich for Brinson straight up. Who says no?


I don't see Yelich waiving his NTC to go to NYC.



Okay, pretend he doesn’t have a NTC. I was just illustrating what his value is or maybe isn’t?

Here is another what if…Yelich MVP 2018, Runner up 2019. Not good 2020, subpar 2021. Do Brewers pick up his 15 million dollar option if there were no extension? The risk is minimal so I say yes just to see if he could find it again. Another year like this and I doubt he would have gotten the FA tender offer.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#11

Posted: October 12, 2021, 5:40 AM Post
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The extension year would be a no brainer. You could still flip him in that hypothetical for a decent return.

His current contract? He is 100% not tradable. We would have to eat tens of millions just to get trade talks started.


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Online  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#12

Posted: October 12, 2021, 5:48 AM Post
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sveumrules said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
Pretend for a minute the Yankees have Lewis Brinson. Yelich for Brinson straight up. Who says no?


I don't see Yelich waiving his NTC to go to NYC.


The Yankees say no, immediately and without hesitation.

Brinson is a neutral value player. He can be non-tendered immediately and cost nothing.

Christian Yelich is an extremely negative value player.

I don't know whether or not Christian Yelich would go to New York but I do know there is a 0% chance that any team, even the Yankees, is going to just give us a free salary dump of Christian Yelich.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#13

Posted: October 12, 2021, 6:04 AM Post
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Here is a thought. What if Yelich rebounded enough next year to be a neutral value player. Like a .900 OPS…not MVP level good…but still really good.

Does everyone trade him for salary relief or does anyone want to forget 2020-2021 and be in the contract till the end?


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#14

Posted: October 12, 2021, 7:58 AM Post
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Speaking for myself, I want him gone for salary relief. I'd give him away for free at this point to get out from underneath that contract.

"I'm sick of runnin' from these wimps!" Ajax - The WARRIORS


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#15

Posted: October 12, 2021, 8:05 AM Post
Posts: 229
turborickey said:
Speaking for myself, I want him gone for salary relief. I'd give him away for free at this point to get out from underneath that contract.


I said the same thing last off season and last year it may have been possible.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#16

Posted: October 12, 2021, 8:14 AM Post
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Dean Machine said:
turborickey said:
Speaking for myself, I want him gone for salary relief. I'd give him away for free at this point to get out from underneath that contract.


I said the same thing last off season and last year it may have been possible.


What team exists in the venn diagram overlap of "would willingly take on Yelich's negative value contract" and "Yelich would waive his NTC to join this team"?

I don't see anybody last or this year who fits the bill.

The odds of Yelich hitting a home run today are infinitely higher than the odds of him getting traded anytime soon, so I'll waste my time dreaming about the former.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#17

Posted: October 12, 2021, 8:20 AM Post
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I could see Yelich going to play in LA similar to what Braun almost did....that is about the only way I could see him leave. Not sure Yelich has the same love for playing near home though. Guessing Braun having a family is the only reason he would have done it.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#18

Posted: October 12, 2021, 9:30 AM Post
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Since the "bad contracts" are sunk costs that generally hurt the team and there's not much you can do about them, the big thing is whether or not any lessons have been learned. Big, long-term deals can hurt small revenue teams a lot more than they hurt big market teams. When we start discussing what to do with the next star player who is coming to the end of his "team control," remember that we always seem to be wishing that we could get out from under the last bad contract we signed.

Once a player is into his arby years, the options are generally:

A) Sign the player to a big money, long-term contract before he hits free agency.
B) Trade the player before he hits free agency.
C) Keep the player on the team until free agency and let him walk "for nothing."

Just my opinion, but option "B" is usually the best option for smaller revenue teams.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#19

Posted: October 12, 2021, 9:45 AM Post
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I don't think they have much choice but to hope Yelich discovers something this winter and rebounds to some extent next year. I believe it all stems from the back issues which may have hindered his offseason workouts too. He had a good August and early September, so there's still a quality player in there somewhere. From Sept. 12 on he struggled again. Maybe playing every day there when he was hitting caught up to him.


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Offline  Re: 2022 Bad Contracts
#20

Posted: October 12, 2021, 10:18 AM Post
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In 2017, his last year in Miami, Yelich had 602 ABs and hit .282/.369/.439 with 36 doubles, 2 triples and 18 homers.
In '20-'21 with Milwaukee, Yelich had 599 ABs and hit .234/.360/.392 with 26 doubles, 3 triples and 21 homers.

Across '20-'21 Yelich's Hard Hit % is better than in 2017 (51.1% to 49.8%) Ground Ball % in '20-'21 is down compared to '17 (54% to 55.2%), Isolated slugging percentage is also up in '20-'21 compared to '17 (.159 to .156), and exit velocity is minimally better (91.6 to 91.2). Yet in 2017, Yelich's BABIP was .336 in 602 at bats, and in 599 at bats across '20-'21 it was .304.

Despite having what is considered a down year, Yelich is literally an extra hit or two a week away from being the exact same player they traded for. And there's no doubt Yelich was a terrific player before the Brewers traded for him.

It's a fair topic to debate philosophically it is wise for any team with limited resources to devote a huge chunk to one single player. In a game where even slightly above average players are making 12-13 million dollars its fair to debate it would be better to have two players for the money Yelich is being paid.

But I do think it unfair to argue that Yelich's contract is bad based on his numbers in '18-'19 compared to '20-'21. This is because I don't think there's anyone, except those in fandom, who truly expected him to continue with a .631 Slugging Percentage like he put up in '18-'19. (FWIW Lou Gehrig's career slugging percentage was .632 placing him 3rd best of all time). Whether or not Yelich is meeting the expectations the front office had when they offered him a huge extension is anyone's guess. He is still a productive veteran player and we do know in the major leagues those cost a lot of money.


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