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Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??

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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#21

Posted: May 23, 2007, 12:20 PM Post
Posts: 6191
Yes, Portland is such a huge TV market.

A conspiracy is silly enough, but one that makes no sense?


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#22

Posted: May 23, 2007, 12:26 PM Post
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A conspiracy is silly enough, but one that makes no sense?

Did you even read the thread?


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#23

Posted: May 23, 2007, 12:37 PM Post
Posts: 6191
Yes, and it makes no sense.

Seattle will probably be moving soon, so I doubt the NBA really wanted them to do well either.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#24

Posted: May 23, 2007, 1:46 PM Post
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sorry, again, I haven't watched this in years so I didn't know how it works anymore.

Can you elaborate at all on these codes and how it works? A link that tells about it perhaps?

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P.I.T.C.H. LEAGUE CHAMPION 1989, 1996, 1999, 2000, 2006, 2007, 2011 (finally won another one)


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#25

Posted: May 23, 2007, 1:50 PM Post
Posts: 208
pitchleague, Google is your friend. Learn it, use it, love it.

The first result on a query of "nba lottery rules":

Under the system, 14 ping-pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are placed in a drum. There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, without regard to their order of selection. Prior to the Lottery, 1,000 combinations are assigned to the Lottery teams based on their order of finish during the regular season. Four balls are drawn to the top to determine a four-digit combination. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the number one pick. The four balls are placed back in the drum and the process is repeated to determine the number two and three picks. (Note: If the one unassigned combination is drawn, the balls are drawn to the top again.)


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#26

Posted: May 23, 2007, 3:45 PM Post
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it's very easy to rig the ping pong system. just use weighted ping pong balls for the combos that certain teams have. and then use lighter balls for the number of the combos that you want to be winners. in this manner, the weighted balls will stay within the container, and any combo that contained that weighted ball would not come up.

two things stand out- the combinations each team had that would have made them a winner were never revealed. if you weighted 3-4 balls, you could also ensure all of the bucks' or celtics or memphis combos had one of those 4 weighted balls Thus none of their possible winning combos would ever happen.

I loved the fact they said the balls were locked inside a briefcase so that the lottery balls could not be tampered with. in other words, they were already tampered with, and Stern didn't want anybody to play with them to realize they were tampered. Did anybody look at all the balls and weigh them before or after the lottery was conducted ? the answer is no.

to the untrained eye, a weighted ping pong ball looks the same as a reguar one. all you have to do is make the outer shell of the ball thicker. Dicks sporting goods sells three different grades of ping pong balls. you can't tell the difference between any of them other than the price.

it's obvious to me stern wanted to send a message to the three teams that tanked the most. he rigged the lottery to ensure that all three lost out.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#27

Posted: May 23, 2007, 3:55 PM Post
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this "drum", is it like those air-power vacu-suck machines like they use for powerball and other lotteries drawn on tv?

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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#28

Posted: May 23, 2007, 4:42 PM Post
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People who conspire prey upon the naive who believe that conspiracies aren't very possible, thus allowing them to not be questioned. Some people think all conspiracies have to do with aliens and are quick to dismiss them. Sometimes they are as simple as an agreement between two people when millions to billions of dollars are involved. And when things are done so secretively, they are pretty easy to pull off.

I did watch the Bucks get screwed pretty blatantly by the officials back in the big three days. I mean some of those calls can't be possible for 3 officials to miss. Eddie Jones in the last few seconds of a 1 possession game, dribbles the ball and picks it up for 5 seconds, before proceeding to dribble again. It's a blatant violation in junior ball, but it's not called in professional basketball. There were just so many close games and playoff games, where I couldn't believe my eyes. Same things with the Kings in the playoffs against the Lakers. How much money and credibility is the NBA losing with all those meaningless games late in the season when teams aren't trying to win for the possibility to win in the future? The chances of it none of the top 3 staying there were .08 percent. If the Sonics move to Vegas, that's a pretty great place for Durant to be in the spotlight and become a star. He's going to make much more on promotional deals than Oden anyways, because his game is more exciting, and Oden has the personality of a rake. Who cares about games being played in the northwest or west coast? The Lakers don't seem to have problem getting ratings.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#29

Posted: May 23, 2007, 4:42 PM Post
Posts: 208
Big Reed, your theory is great except you take great liberty with the facts.

Every ball is "inspected" before it is put into the case. OK, not good enough, I understand...

After the first 4 balls are selected and the team that has those numbers is identified (which is public to all in the room) they are put back into the machine.

So with your theory, the same 4 balls would come up every time.

But it's obvious they don't. And if they don't what's the point?


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#30

Posted: May 23, 2007, 5:07 PM Post
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No matter what happens, someone will claim a conspiracy. I guess it gives people sometimes to talk about.

People who conspire prey upon the naive who believe that conspiracies aren't very possible, thus allowing them to not be questioned.


What's the evidence we are naively overlooking?


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#31

Posted: May 23, 2007, 5:54 PM Post
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Thank goodness the NFL doesn't have this lottery. Look at the mess it makes. I see no good in it at all. The worst teams are crying "foul" Many people out there saying "Conspiracy!"

AT least with the NFL draft, its cut and dry. No conspiracy, no nothing, just some catty moves and deniles by teamson whom they want to draft.

IMOP, The NBA should drop the lottery gimmick. If teams tank games, so what? The World of sports isn't an exact science, Oden could stink, like Sam Bowie did, or Durrant could blow out a knee. Or take coke and die like Bias did...

But don't punish the worst team (s) even more. I'm sorry, I just don't like it.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#32

Posted: May 24, 2007, 4:40 AM Post
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my theory is that you weight the balls you don't want to come up. you don't have to weight 4 balls. all you really have to do is ensure there is one weighted ball for every possible combo for a particular team.

let's say the bucks had 50 different combos. if the number 12 is included in 26 of those combos, and the 38 is included in the remaining 24 combos, then the bucks would never have a winning combo.

realistically, i doubt the bucks had any more than 20 possible winning combos. if you weighted 4 balls, yo u could easily have one of those 4 balls in each of the 20 combos and nobody would ever suspect a thing.

A question i would ask, as the balls came out of the shoot and the number combos were posted on the board, was there a numbered ball that never seemed to come up and be posted? if the #5 ball never came out of the shoot fr any of the combos posted, i would say that ball was somehow weighted? Did one numbered ball seem to come up out of the shoot more often than not? then that #3 ball would have been made lighter before being placed in the shoot.

an easy way to disprove my theory would be to have the number combos for each team to be published and then compared with each other and the frequency of a ball coming out of the shoot. if all the balls came out of the shoot with similar frequency, then it's not rigged. however, if several balls came out of the shoot a significant amount less than others, and those numbers were associated with the combo numbers on the Bucks, celtics and grizzlies, then we have a big problem. Additionally, if the celtics, grizzlies and bucks all had combos containing similar numbers, then we also have a problem.

example: the Bucks had a 4 number combo of 1, 3, 5, 10.

the grizzlies had a combo of 1, 5, 7, 13

the celtics had a combo of 1 , 7, 10, 14.


and then the 1 ball never seems to pop up out the shoot. poof goes the chances of the Bucks, celtics and grizzlies.

or to make sure those three teams never win, the 1, 5 and 7 ball could be weighted.

and portland and seattle and atlanta would have to have combos that did not include those numbers.

as I said, a way to remove any doubt of the lottery being fixed would be to reveal the team combination numbers, and also a reflection of the number of times each numbered ball came out of the shoot. if all the balls came out of the shoot wit h equal frequency, that would help dispell the conspiracy theory.

Did an y agency outside the NBA keep an accurate account of these two things? or are they kept secret within the NBA?

i would see no reason why the NBA would not be willing to show the codes after the fact, unless they had something to hide.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#33

Posted: May 24, 2007, 5:27 AM Post
Posts: 208
The lottery is run by an independent group actually. There's a few articles out there by guys who have been witness to the lotto. They've all mentioned an independent company that makes and operates these machines. They even bring a backup in case the machine breaks down. They also have a contingency plan if the machines don't work that amounts to basically drawing names out of a hat.

I can see your theory. And assigning a single number to the teams you don't want to win and then making sure that ball doesn't come up is a good idea.

But I really just doubt this happens. The owners all have a vested interest in winning the lottery and they would never let this happen. It would be risking so much to the integrity of the sport and actually be illegal. A rookie contract is only 4 years and then they are restricted in which they can take a 1 year tender and be unrestricted after 5 years. At this point they can go to the big market the league points them in ala Shaq.

Plus, if a ball was weighted you would notice it not floating around in the hopper like the others and this would draw suspicion form at least one of the 20 or so people in the room.

Teams get accused of tanking every year. Cleveland and Denver were accused of it the year LeBron and 'Melo came out. Cleveland won the lottery after a masterful tank job that started in November.

This year none of the bottom 3 won a spot. It's certainly possible. Do a mock draft at ESPN.com. I've had none of those teams come up after running 20 trials more than once.

One way to look at it is add up the probabilities of the bottom 3 teams getting each pick. For each one, 1-3 they add up to less than 65%. So if you treat the rest of the teams as a single entity (the not a bottom 3 entity) you see this entity has almost as good a chance to be selected. Out of the pool of 1001 numbers, the "rest of the teams" have about half. So since it's a lottery, with replacement, it's not that too crazy to think that one of the bottom 3 teams wouldn't win. And as it gets closer to the 3 spot, the odds of the bottom 3 get less, down to about 55% So imagine they have a 65% chance at #1, 60% chance at #2 and a 55% chance at #3.

For instance, it's not too bizarre to believe you could flip a coin 4 times and have it come up tails every time. These are about the same odds.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#34

Posted: May 24, 2007, 6:41 AM Post
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being the cynic I always am, these there were the first thoughts that popped in my mind when I heard what happened in '05 and on Tuesday night:

'05 : It was a weak draft, so they threw a cookie in Milwaukee's direction because the NBA doesn't want a marketable/profitable superstar in such a small market...

'07: pubic support for arenas in both Portland and Seattle fell apart, so they need to build more NBA support in the NW...but i see Seattle moving anyway.

Even if it is fixed, there's always free agency to "correct" these fixes. Rookie contracts are only 3(+1) seasons long....


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#35

Posted: May 24, 2007, 7:22 AM Post
Posts: 724
the lottery probably isn't fixed. however, it didn't prevent teams from tanking either. i had thought the original intent for the placement of a lottery was to eliminate the teams from tanking. Since tanking always happens to some degree in every sport, i see no real need to keep the NBA lottery.

even baseball has gone to a last = first draft.

Just think of all the conspiracies that would be formed if Baseball had a lottery draft.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#36

Posted: May 24, 2007, 7:42 AM Post
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I don't think this was fixed. I do think that the 1985 draft lottery was though.

Formerly BrewCrewIn2004

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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#37

Posted: May 24, 2007, 7:49 AM Post
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if this one was fixed, then it stands that past ones have been fixed. and if so, nobody would have ever given the mini-market Bucks the #1 pick.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#38

Posted: May 24, 2007, 8:37 AM Post
Posts: 208
I think comparing the NBA to other sports doesn't work in this regard BigReed.

In the NBA 1 player can change everything. Look at Cleveland. Perennially basement team that is now in the conference finals. Same goes for many teams. Denver has been a playoff team since they obtained Carmelo.

In football and baseball, 1 player isn't going to make or break a teams fate.

Basketball is a game dominated by a couple guys on each team with everyone else role playing. It's 5 games per team at a time with a player playing both offense and defense. So the benefits to tanking are so great.

It makes sense to try and get that player that can change the face of your franchise for years. The payoff is immense.

In baseball its actually kind of the opposite. The way the farm and draft systems work now, smart teams can sustain good play for years. This is of course because of having to give up draft picks when you sign a teams FA's. So teams like the Brewers, who have a lot of young talent, will potentially be getting lost of good draft picks down the road to keep the farm going as they lose todays players to FA down the road.

In basketball, your teams fortunes can be changed dramatically if you get the #1 and not the #2 pick. It is because of this the NBA needs a lottery system.

The bottom 6 teams are really the only ones with any real chance of winning the top pick. And the difference between these teams is usually very little.

For instance the Bucks and Celtics this year weren't nearly as bad as their records and tanking isn't the only reason. Both teams suffered so many injuries this year and under performed by a wide margin. Both teams are probably better than Seattle and Portland to be honest.

Memphis is a pretty bad team but they still have the fourth pick.

Atlanta with the third pick....well, they've been in the top of the draft for years anyways and haven't gotten better.

I think this year is proof that not only is the lottery needed (not because it stops teams form tanking, but doesn't guarantee the tanking teams get anything for it) but that it works.

Without it a lot more teams would have been tanking because it would be guaranteed they got the picks.

If anything, drop the lottery and develop an algorithm that ranks teams and awards teams draft picks based on their power. Don't ask me what to use. I'm guessing their is some kind of RPI out there they could use. Take all types of variables into account so by the time the last quarter of the season rolls around it would be impossible to tank so bad as to break the system.

This is maybe the best way to do it. But invariably this method will pick the "worst" team and lots of people will disagree and complain about how it's stupid, etc, like in footballs BCS rankings.

I'd also imagine it would have to weight conferences and divisions. Because the bad teams in the West would probably look worse than teams that might be worse than them but play in the East where the competition is worse. This would prevent a clumping, or off balanced drafting system where one conference gets stronger and stronger while another gets weaker and weaker.

It would be interesting to figure out a system that is fair. What variables would go into play? Would you mix an algorithm with an independent lobbies poll also? Could you trust humans to be impartial?


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#39

Posted: May 24, 2007, 8:48 AM Post
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Expanding on this idea of a ranking system, should it take into account a teams potential? That is, not weigh every game equally.

This way teams can play young players late in the season and not taint the true results of how good or bad they are.

Maybe bell curve it to some time in the season? Teams could exploit this bell curve of course.

I'd imagine weighing all the variables you take into account with a teams potential would be the best. This is similar to how handicaps work in golf. They aren't based on your average, but rather your best games....or your potential one could say..

So teams that have good players that get injured and end up stinking don't artificially get high draft picks because of this turn of "luck".


So basically take into account how your team did at its best, how they did at their worst and how they did the rest and weight the algorithms variables this way. This kills tanking, unless you intent to start tanking in December.

It would definitely be interesting and have to be open and would kill any idea of a conspiracy. It would also have to be tested over the results of the last 50 years and people would have to generally agree it's fair.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#40

Posted: May 24, 2007, 12:08 PM Post
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I would just like them to use the ping pong system and not the combination system after the ping pong balls are drawn.

Here's what I would do. Televise it, the team with the worst record gets the least ping pong balls the team with the best record (in the lottery of course) gets the most ping pong balls. That way you can count from 14-1.

Cards' fans wear jorts.


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