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Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??

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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#41

Posted: May 24, 2007, 12:19 PM Post
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Breaking news: Sack races will be held to figure out to the nbas draft.

But seriously, sack races...


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#42

Posted: May 25, 2007, 1:47 AM Post
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I don't think this was fixed. I do think that the 1985 draft lottery was though.

The Ewing Lottery?

I am going from memory, so I could well be wrong, but I believe:

1) That was the very first NBA lottery.
2) All teams in the lottery had an equal chance of getting the top pick, rather than the current weighted system.
3) The weighted lottery was put in place for the next draft.

Maybe the NBA knew they needed a weighted system, and they really were hoping a team like NY got Ewing, and in that sense the lottery was "fixed" to give their chosen team a better choice. If that's the case, I can't really argue that point.

However, they didn't need to "fix" the actual results to get the result they got.

what if the system went like this. the teams that dont make the playoffs are in the lotterty, as it is now. But then best of those teams gets the best chance at number one and the worst team gets the lowest chance of all the lottery teams.

While I like adding an incentive to get teams to play their best the entire season, this system punishes teams that are truly bad and may reward a good team having an off year.

If the Bucks, for example, were clearly the worst team in the league and they were getting thumped every night while playing their best 5 guys 35-40 minutes, they could, in theory, be picking 8-10 every year in such a system.

Conversely, a really good team that just misses the playoffs (maybe because of injuries) could get an impact player. Lets say that the Spurs had lost Duncan for most of they year and they just missed the playoffs... and then they get to add someone like Durant or Oden.

Chris
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"I guess underrated pitchers with bad goatees are the new market inefficiency." -- SRB


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#43

Posted: May 25, 2007, 2:10 AM Post
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I like the idea of sack races. Each owner or GM gets an official BA issued team sack. The lottery teams then compete in a sack race in Madison Square Garden.

I think sack races are probably the way to go. They should at least be considered.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#44

Posted: May 25, 2007, 3:02 AM Post
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Lets say that the Spurs had lost Duncan for most of they year and they just missed the playoffs...

This is exactly how they got Duncan -- They had gone to (and I think won a series) the playoffs, and then Robinson and Sean Elliot got hurt the following year and then they won the lottery and drafted Duncan -- and then made the playoffs everytime since.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#45

Posted: May 25, 2007, 3:05 AM Post
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This is exactly how they got Duncan -- They had gone to (and I think won a series) the playoffs, and then Robinson and Sean Elliot got hurt the following year and then they won the lottery and drafted Duncan -- and then made the playoffs everytime since.

Being the lazy guy I am, I'm going to ask this instead of look it up myself.

Do you remember how bad the Spurs were the year before (without Robinson and Elliot)? I don't remember if they were a fringe lottery team or if they were really bad.

I guess with the lottery system in place, you'll have occasional weirdness, but I don't like the thought that a 35-40 win team would consistently winning the lottery while 25-30 win teams are picking 8+.

Maybe that's because I am a Bucks fan. :)

Chris
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"I guess underrated pitchers with bad goatees are the new market inefficiency." -- SRB


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#46

Posted: May 25, 2007, 3:31 AM Post
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21-61, so fringe playoff team


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#47

Posted: May 25, 2007, 3:44 AM Post
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Do you remember how bad the Spurs were the year before (without Robinson and Elliot)? I don't remember if they were a fringe lottery team or if they were really bad.

They went something like this

Playoffs
Lottery
Playoffs

The year they won the lottery they blew hard -- I don't think they were the worst -- but I think they were in that top-3 group -- they weren't a long shot to win it, or at least that is how I recall it.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#48

Posted: May 25, 2007, 6:43 AM Post
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The year they won the lottery they blew hard -- I don't think they were the worst -- but I think they were in that top-3 group -- they weren't a long shot to win it, or at least that is how I recall it.

21-61 is what someone else posted... so, top three and that record, with their two best players hurt... makes sense I guess.

Chris
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"I guess underrated pitchers with bad goatees are the new market inefficiency." -- SRB


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#49

Posted: May 25, 2007, 6:58 AM Post
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The Spurs tanked to get Duncan. Robinson was indeed hurt, but they weren't nearly as bad as their record and really just did nothing on purpose the second half of the year. Everyone knew Duncan was going to be a basketball God. So the Spurs tanked and it worked out really, really well for them.

The Spurs are notoriously one of the dirtier franchises, especially in the Popovich era. They were one of the first notable tankers (and benefited from it validating the concept), they took flopping to a whole new level and they groomed Bowen into one of the dirtiest players ever to play a professional sport not named hockey.

It's hard to blame them though with all the success they've had.

Seriously though, it's hardly worth watching the NBA for your team until they win a future HOF player in the draft or pick one up via FA, which the Bucks will probably never do.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#50

Posted: May 25, 2007, 7:16 AM Post
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The Spurs tanked to get Duncan. Robinson was indeed hurt, but they weren't nearly as bad as their record and really just did nothing on purpose the second half of the year.

I don't recall all the details, but did the Spurs actually play their worst players (or sit their best) to lose games (what I'd consider tanking)? Or did they just do nothing to replace Robinson and Elliot?

I know it is a gray area, but I could see a team making a legitimate case for not making trades and the like to fix a lost season if they knew they'd be back when they got healthy.

While the end result is the same, I see that as more reasonable than not playing your starters in the 4th. It is still a gray area to be sure, but it at least seems more legit.

Chris
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"I guess underrated pitchers with bad goatees are the new market inefficiency." -- SRB


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#51

Posted: May 25, 2007, 7:29 AM Post
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Here's a good article that answers a lot of questions brought up here. IT discusses why NBA teams tank and other sports don't, the value of the top player VS the #2 pick, economics and incentives and other things. If you haven't read "Wages of Wins" it might now make a whole ton of sense.

dberri.wordpress.com/2007...n-the-nba/

And then read this:

dberri.wordpress.com/2007...n-the-nba/


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#52

Posted: May 25, 2007, 9:12 AM Post
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Interesting articles. Thanks for the reading, tho I suspect to truly understand there is more reading involved. :)

Chris
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"I guess underrated pitchers with bad goatees are the new market inefficiency." -- SRB


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#53

Posted: May 25, 2007, 9:37 AM Post
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I'd recommend picking up the book. It's almost tailor made for the Wisconsin NBA fan. It has a section on Brett Favre and the Chicago Bulls dynasty. It also talks about baseballs financial predicament and kind of comes to some conclusions with evidence that might not seem right intuitively. But it's backed up with solid evidence.

It's a fascinating book and one of the better basketball statistical analysis books. You don't need a math degree to keep up. If you have one all the better, but he eventually breaks down a complicated formula into a simple one.

If you have an economics degree or something of that sort then this is right up your alley. I don't have an econ or math degree (math minor however, yipee!) but economics is a hobby of mine as are statistics so this and "Money Ball" are a couple books I adore. If you're into "Freakonomics" you'll like this stuff.

The premise is, using the possession as the currency of a basketball game, just what is the best way to measure a players contribution to winning, the ultimate goal of the game? Players are assigned "Win Scores" based on a lot of factors. A Win Score is made up of all types of stats, time player and it also most impressively takes the players position into account. The results may be startling at times!

Of course, there is a section on defense. He does measure as much defense as he can but it's also very intangible. But even the author admits that this score is only an evaluator up to a point. It has to be used with observation, of course.

But what's most impressive is when you look back on any NBA team over the last 20 or so years that he has gone back and add up the Win Scores of every player on a team and the Win Scores add up +/- 2 wins to that of the teams! It's almost fool proof, with some margin of error. Most impressive.


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Offline  Did David Stern fix last night's NBA lottery??
#54

Posted: May 25, 2007, 12:25 PM Post
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in the year the spurs drafted Duncan, they did have a very bad record. they were not the worst team in the league that year. they had either the third or 4th worst record. Additionally, the odds for the first team getting the first pick were not as stacked as they are now. So it was kind of common for the third or 4th or 7th best team to get the first pick. the worst team was also not guaranteed anything.

many people have said the Spurs backed into the lottery because David robinson was injured. What was supposed to be a normal 6 week injury turned into a season ending injury as the Spurs told robinson to just rest until the season was over. if robinson had come back to play, when first expected, many experts believe the Spurs could have easily won 38-40 games and would not have been part of the lottery. however, after his injury and Elliot's injury, they just decided to toss in the towell on the season.


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