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The Investment Thread

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#41

Posted: March 10, 2017, 9:52 AM Post
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Location: Waukesha, WI
DHonks said:
FVBrewerFan said:
DHonks said:
-if you're under 50, don't plan on Social Security. Our politicians have screwed us over by continuing to pander to old people at the expense of the young. In 2033 we're going to be in serious trouble. I warn all my students that they cannot rely on Social Security in its current form. It is not viable, and our politicians are afraid to deal with it.


I have been hearing "Social Security" will be gone all my life. That isn't going to happen. Look at the outrage whenever they even hint at changing anything. They can raise the age, they can tinker with means testing, but there will be SS.



FVBrewerfan, Social Security will be here. It doesn't pay out very much on average now (a little over $1200/month on average), and it will only pay out less. Created in the 1930s, the Social Security Trust Fund ran a surplus until 2009. Beginning in 2010 (I believe in part due to the Obama temporary tax cut), the SSA began collecting less money annually than it was due to pay out. Therefore, the Trust Fund was tapped into. By 2033 the Trust Fund will be drained and tax collections will only cover 75% of expenditures. Therefore, massive changes will be needed, likely a combination of tax increases, benefit cuts, means testing, and increasing the eligibility age. Perhaps SSA will also stop some of it's long-term disability coverage. In 2033, the Social Security shortfall is projected at over $600B. Congress needs to do something about this. They should have done something about this years ago. That's why all people today need to be investing.

I love asking my students if they could save $5 every pay period, and they all raise their hands. Then point out that at normal growth rates, $5/pay period would amass $40k+ of wealth by retirement age. We can all do a better job of this.


SS will always be around as long as the public demands it and seniors vote in disproportionate numbers.

A few years ago Paul Walker toured America sharing his economic ideas and his four point on SS is what DHonks mentioned.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#42

Posted: March 10, 2017, 11:47 AM Post
Posts: 5723
Exactly, that's all I'm saying. You hear "SS won't be around" all the time, and it just isn't true. It will be tinkered with as we've discussed, but it's not going away. And don't even get me started about the trust fund. That doesn't even exist, except in name. Just another slush fund they've been borrowing from forever, remember Al Gore talking about the "lock box" like 30 years ago. The four options for SS were mentioned above, but don't forget about the 5th option they've been doing forever. Just print more money and run up more debt.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#43

Posted: March 10, 2017, 1:16 PM Post
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Normally I wouldn't touch bitcoin but I recently heard something about China opening up to the possibility of allowing internet currency.

http://finviz.com is a good stock screener.

http://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/podcast That's a link to the podcast I like the most. The idea is that he's a successful value investor (more long-term than short) hosting with his daughter, who plays the part of the novice investor and asks questions. It's good beginner stuff, though not insultingly simple at all.

I'd mentioned dataroma before, but here's a link: http://www.dataroma.com/m/home.php

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html These are also good reads. Warren Buffet writes an annual letter to his shareholders, which he makes public.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#44

Posted: March 10, 2017, 3:18 PM Post
Posts: 1207
Bitcoin crashing this afternoon...SEC denied an ETF for it. I'd personally be careful playing around with "fake" (according to the governments) currencies until it becomes an authentic one.


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#45

Posted: March 10, 2017, 3:27 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
superfly said:
Bitcoin crashing this afternoon...SEC denied an ETF for it. I'd personally be careful playing around with "fake" (according to the governments) currencies until it becomes an authentic one.


Well it isn't regulated but it is more secure than any paper currency.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#46

Posted: March 10, 2017, 10:21 PM Post
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I'm looking at buying a house that is around $550K. If I put 20% down ($110K) the loan is $440K which is a jumbo loan and the interest rate is around 4.375%. If I put down 25% (additional $27K down) it's just under the jumbo threshold and the interest rate is 4%; but if I pay for two points (additional $7K) the interest rate is 3.875%. The points are a lot less than putting down an extra 5%, but the extra 5% goes towards the principal whereas the points are a cost and the points require you to stay in the property for ~7 years to break even.

Not sure which is the better option.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#47

Posted: March 11, 2017, 12:35 PM Post
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My investments are in gold, buried in various places around town. Or is it?


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#48

Posted: March 11, 2017, 8:54 PM Post
Posts: 378
nate82 said:
Gold and silver can still get you nice returns just don't buy coins they are harder to sell ie. melt value is not worth it get bars instead and cut them up and sell when above market.

I didn't think gold or silver bars carried much of a premium above spot price? I thought small denomination coins were the easiest to unload?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#49

Posted: March 11, 2017, 9:26 PM Post
Posts: 378
wallus said:
Housing as I have one duplex now and it isn't that difficult. Luckily, I purchased this property in the nice part of the town and have never spent a dime getting it rented out to quality tenants.

If I were to enter the rental game, I'd also start out with an above-average duplex to attract decent tenants and minimize headaches (both maintenance and personalities). I have two friends who bought older rental properties during the most recent financial crisis and couldn't wait to unload them after the market recovered a bit (boy, do they have some stories). I lack the patience for difficult maintenance / people, but I'm sure there's money to be made there for those with more discipline than myself. For me, it's low-fee, equity index funds in my 401(k) / IRA and Brewers Timeless Tickets (sarcasm).


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#50

Posted: March 12, 2017, 11:35 AM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
nodakfan17 said:
nate82 said:
Gold and silver can still get you nice returns just don't buy coins they are harder to sell ie. melt value is not worth it get bars instead and cut them up and sell when above market.

I didn't think gold or silver bars carried much of a premium above spot price? I thought small denomination coins were the easiest to unload?


Coins are good for coin collectors not much beyond that. Bars are easier to unload because they have the stamp on them and can be cut up into smaller pieces and melted. You can't really cut up a coin and if you do you are destroying some of its value coin collection.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#51

Posted: March 13, 2017, 8:52 AM Post
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If you are not buying in "bulk", scrap silver coins are easy to unload. If you are not paying numismatic value for them, scrap eagles are basically smaller versions of bars. If you're going to buy 16 ounces at a time, I'd just buy the bar. Silver doesn't typically reach value where liquidating individual coins makes sense. Bars are easier to store as well. If you are just buying an ounce here and there, buy scrap coins. Everyone coin shop will have them.


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#52

Posted: March 13, 2017, 9:48 AM Post
Posts: 499
What do you guys think of REITs right now? (generally speaking of course)


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#53

Posted: March 13, 2017, 10:41 AM Post
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rwa12 said:
If you are not buying in "bulk", scrap silver coins are easy to unload. If you are not paying numismatic value for them, scrap eagles are basically smaller versions of bars. If you're going to buy 16 ounces at a time, I'd just buy the bar. Silver doesn't typically reach value where liquidating individual coins makes sense. Bars are easier to store as well. If you are just buying an ounce here and there, buy scrap coins. Everyone coin shop will have them.


Or you could just get a Gold ETF that tracks the price of gold.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#54

Posted: March 13, 2017, 11:32 AM Post
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Or you could just get a Gold ETF that tracks the price of gold.[/quote]

Agreed. I didn't read back, I thought they were discussing physically owning precious metals.


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
#55

Posted: March 13, 2017, 11:36 AM Post
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wallus said:
What do you guys think of REITs right now? (generally speaking of course)


From what I've read they are a good hedge against inflation. And many people feel that we are headed to higher inflation based on what the current administration is proposing.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#56

Posted: March 13, 2017, 11:57 AM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
For me I own physical gold as there are ways around paying taxes with physical gold versus ETF. All legal btw.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#57

Posted: March 13, 2017, 5:54 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
I'm looking at buying a house that is around $550K. If I put 20% down ($110K) the loan is $440K which is a jumbo loan and the interest rate is around 4.375%. If I put down 25% (additional $27K down) it's just under the jumbo threshold and the interest rate is 4%; but if I pay for two points (additional $7K) the interest rate is 3.875%. The points are a lot less than putting down an extra 5%, but the extra 5% goes towards the principal whereas the points are a cost and the points require you to stay in the property for ~7 years to break even.

Not sure which is the better option.

They listed the house on Friday and had two offers before the open house on Saturday. Went to the open house on Saturday and during the 15 minutes I was there at least 15 other people walked through. 30 minutes into the open house the listing agent was almost out of brochures. My realtor said she has never seen an open house like that. They set a cutoff for best offers by 5pm Sunday and accepted an offer Sunday night (not mine which was list price).

Found another place on line on Sunday that had been up for six days. Contacted my realtor, she called... and was told they had multiple offers and had a cutoff at noon on Sunday (it was 1:30pm).

Wow. Housing is not a bad place to be now.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#58

Posted: March 14, 2017, 2:37 PM Post
Posts: 499
LouisEly said:
LouisEly said:
I'm looking at buying a house that is around $550K. If I put 20% down ($110K) the loan is $440K which is a jumbo loan and the interest rate is around 4.375%. If I put down 25% (additional $27K down) it's just under the jumbo threshold and the interest rate is 4%; but if I pay for two points (additional $7K) the interest rate is 3.875%. The points are a lot less than putting down an extra 5%, but the extra 5% goes towards the principal whereas the points are a cost and the points require you to stay in the property for ~7 years to break even.

Not sure which is the better option.

They listed the house on Friday and had two offers before the open house on Saturday. Went to the open house on Saturday and during the 15 minutes I was there at least 15 other people walked through. 30 minutes into the open house the listing agent was almost out of brochures. My realtor said she has never seen an open house like that. They set a cutoff for best offers by 5pm Sunday and accepted an offer Sunday night (not mine which was list price).

Found another place on line on Sunday that had been up for six days. Contacted my realtor, she called... and was told they had multiple offers and had a cutoff at noon on Sunday (it was 1:30pm).

Wow. Housing is not a bad place to be now.


That is a dramatically different housing market than the one I am in now.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#59

Posted: March 15, 2017, 5:29 PM Post
Posts: 3526
Here's how crazy IPOs are at the moment. Ardagh group priced at 19 yesterday. Up to 22.91 at close today +20%
Goos that canadian goose jacket company has been priced at $17 opening for trade tomorrow. Original range was a $14-16 and prices essentially +20% already.
Likewise Mulesoft probably to be priced tomorrow and open for trade Friday has raised it's offering from 12-14 to 14-16 which low to high is 33% before even opening for trade.

We'll see if I can get in for under $18 on Goos and $17-17.50 on Mulesoft which I feel best about. But I'm thinking both will open for trade at 20 or higher immediately leaving me to wait. Just love how the average investor is left to scraps and paying off the rich.

edit: Crud, the Goos pricing was in Canadian $$$ so It comes to 12.78 per in US dollar supposedly.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
#60

Posted: March 16, 2017, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 1207
GOOS opened in the $18s, now down to $16.40.


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