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The Investment Thread

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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 12, 2018, 1:28 AM Post
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nate82 said:
The IPO that I am waiting for.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... l-offering

Should be a good stock to own for the long-term.


I can't even imagine what they're going to value that slob at. It may be a good company, but the Goldman Sach is going to price that IPO so high it's going to ruin any chance of making money on it for a fair bit of time IMO. Hopefully you are able to get in on the IPO and not the day it starts trading.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 16, 2018, 3:37 PM Post
Posts: 51
Well this afternoon I cashed out of bitcoin and ethereum. Wife and I had discussed what we could do with the money and she said she was set on building a pimped out pool. The bitcoins alone will easily pay for that and all the ethereum will pay for the kids college funds.

Holding onto my IOTA and Cardano for now.

Not sure where its all going to go, but with what we cashed out with, couldn't be happier.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 26, 2018, 3:18 PM Post
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S&P 500 up over 7.4% year to date after today's close. Crazy. Last 9 years the index has had positive returns each year. There has never been 10 straight calendar years of positive returns for the S&P 500. Something will eventually spook the market, geopolitical or otherwise, and a correction will happen, but it's been quite a ride so far!


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 27, 2018, 8:08 PM Post
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One of Charlie Munger's basic rules for investing is not to invest in an industry you don't understand, so that pretty much puts me out of Bitcoin. I could see it succeeding if the dollar starts to fail as the world's standard currency, but I'm not betting my own money that that's going to happen anytime soon.

My father made a pretty quick $1k off of SiriusXM. I don't think he has much faith in it long-term, but it's one he seems to keep an eye on and just noticed it was undervalued.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 27, 2018, 11:05 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
One of Charlie Munger's basic rules for investing is not to invest in an industry you don't understand, so that pretty much puts me out of Bitcoin. I could see it succeeding if the dollar starts to fail as the world's standard currency, but I'm not betting my own money that that's going to happen anytime soon.

My father made a pretty quick $1k off of SiriusXM. I don't think he has much faith in it long-term, but it's one he seems to keep an eye on and just noticed it was undervalued.


Buffett owns SIRI if my mind serves me right, not a huge position but still pretty large #'s to any of us.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 05, 2018, 8:57 PM Post
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Be careful out there folks...something is broken in this market. Totally irrational volatility and the ETN's that the big boys have been using to "short volatility" for free money the past several years just absolutely blew up. SVXY and XIV


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 05, 2018, 9:33 PM Post
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Based on futures markets, it looks like another big downturn tomorrow.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 06, 2018, 8:40 AM Post
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The coins in my coffee can were not effected by the stock market. That's been a pretty stable investment so far for me.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 06, 2018, 9:47 AM Post
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If you're investing for retirement and have the proper stock/bond/cash mix for your age, you have nothing to worry about. Short term market volatility is and will always be a part of the market both high and low. The key is being less vulnerable to volatility the closer you get to retirement. I lost about $7,000 in the last week or so and could not care less because I'm 35 and have about 30 years before retirement.

If you're investing for the short term or day trading that's an entirely different scenario, but why 401K investors panic time and time again when this happens or carry an inappropriate portfolio mix after decades of these simple lessons really amazes me.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 06, 2018, 12:37 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
If you're investing for retirement and have the proper stock/bond/cash mix for your age, you have nothing to worry about. Short term market volatility is and will always be a part of the market both high and low. The key is being less vulnerable to volatility the closer you get to retirement. I lost about $7,000 in the last week or so and could not care less because I'm 35 and have about 30 years before retirement.

If you're investing for the short term or day trading that's an entirely different scenario, but why 401K investors panic time and time again when this happens or carry an inappropriate portfolio mix after decades of these simple lessons really amazes me.


This is exactly why I never understand why people freak out when the market drops. What percent of people rely on the day to day fluctuations of the market? .5%, maybe? I guess the media needs to whip people into a frenzy about something for ratings and clicks.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 2:05 PM Post
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adambr2 said:
If you're investing for retirement and have the proper stock/bond/cash mix for your age, you have nothing to worry about. Short term market volatility is and will always be a part of the market both high and low. The key is being less vulnerable to volatility the closer you get to retirement. I lost about $7,000 in the last week or so and could not care less because I'm 35 and have about 30 years before retirement.

If you're investing for the short term or day trading that's an entirely different scenario, but why 401K investors panic time and time again when this happens or carry an inappropriate portfolio mix after decades of these simple lessons really amazes me.


All exactly true. One of the issues with people who are afraid of or have a negative view of the market is that there is a lot more noise made by the general media when the market has a down day or a rough year or two. 75% of the time the S&P 500 is up on an annualized calendar year basis. The S&P 500 has only been in existence since 1957. However, it can and has been extrapolated back to 1926. Since that period, if you take the annual returns of the S&P 500 and calculate rolling 10 year annualized returns, there have been only four (out of 82) 10-year periods where the annualized return has been negative. It's never been negative over a 20 year period. The worst 20 year annualized return was 3.11% for the 20 year period ending 1948 and that included the great depression years (the cumulative return for that same period was 84.42%. The average annualized return for a 20 year period is 11.01%. The average cumulative return is 854.63%

I'm not suggesting that you should only invest in a S&P 500 index fund. As adambr2 stated, you should have diversified retirement portfolio. My point is that over longer periods of time (10+) years, historically, the market has always gone up.

The S&P 500 has been up 9 calendar years in a row now. We are due for at least a few bad years. Trying to time it is a foolish game. You just have to be in for the long hall and roll with the punches.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 2:20 PM Post
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jerichoholicninja said:
adambr2 said:
If you're investing for retirement and have the proper stock/bond/cash mix for your age, you have nothing to worry about. Short term market volatility is and will always be a part of the market both high and low. The key is being less vulnerable to volatility the closer you get to retirement. I lost about $7,000 in the last week or so and could not care less because I'm 35 and have about 30 years before retirement.

If you're investing for the short term or day trading that's an entirely different scenario, but why 401K investors panic time and time again when this happens or carry an inappropriate portfolio mix after decades of these simple lessons really amazes me.


This is exactly why I never understand why people freak out when the market drops. What percent of people rely on the day to day fluctuations of the market? .5%, maybe? I guess the media needs to whip people into a frenzy about something for ratings and clicks.


People freak out because they don’t really understand the stock market and don’t understand their retirement plan(401k etc). They don’t understand the short term is rather meaningless. Some people check their retirements plans way too often. It is really nothing more than that.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 3:46 PM Post
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In addition, don't forget the benefit of dollar-cost averaging. If you're regularly contributing to your investment account and/or 401k, you're buying at all point of the market. When you buy in down markets, your overall cost basis goes down. You're much better off doing that, as opposed to trying to time the market.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 5:18 PM Post
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Some people check their retirements plans way too often.


This is my wife. She checks our kids' 529s weekly, and they are 6 and 3 years old! I check my quarterly statements when they come in the mail and both of us are in the WRS so we only get one annual statement and we have very little to do with how that money is invested, which is really nice.

I'm looking at getting some non-retirement investments going at some point and have zeroed in on VTI or VOO on the ETF front. For some reason I'm sort of chicken when it comes to taking the plunge, but I think it's more due to the amount that we are discussing putting into an account and it's really hard to part with large sums of money sometimes. I do know that it's a best long-term strategy and we will see gains if we let it sit for a while before withdrawing is as income (assuming it earns money over the next several years!).


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 8:47 PM Post
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I created quite the controversy apparently. Lol. All I said was I thought folks should be careful out there, nothing more. Some people (myself is one) are a bit more aggressive than the tortoise 40 year plan so it is a bit more imperative to pay attention to the shorter term trends. And that's not to say the 40 year plan is wrong, most people should be doing it as they don't have the time, energy, wherewithal, etc to be doing anything different.

The free money rolled for quite some time, we're due for some sideways/volatility for awhile. Especially when the algorithms decide to sell 3-400 points off in afterhours trading based on what turned out to be a fake news piece like they did tonight, or when Credit Suisse ETN's go bankrupt and terminate in a half hour during extended hours trading when it had been one of the "best" money makers for years. Many many managers got F'd bad with XIV and SVXY.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 8:53 PM Post
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NeedMoreFans said:
Some people check their retirements plans way too often.


This is my wife. She checks our kids' 529s weekly, and they are 6 and 3 years old! I check my quarterly statements when they come in the mail and both of us are in the WRS so we only get one annual statement and we have very little to do with how that money is invested, which is really nice.

I'm looking at getting some non-retirement investments going at some point and have zeroed in on VTI or VOO on the ETF front. For some reason I'm sort of chicken when it comes to taking the plunge, but I think it's more due to the amount that we are discussing putting into an account and it's really hard to part with large sums of money sometimes. I do know that it's a best long-term strategy and we will see gains if we let it sit for a while before withdrawing is as income (assuming it earns money over the next several years!).


I am kind of guilty of the first one but I get bored at work sometimes and I just check it but never do anything. I usually just play around with the calculator they have.

For your second one have you though of something like this https://www.nationwide.com/retirementincome.jsp instead? You have to put money in it monthly but it is basically an annuity which some people are not fans of. I don't like them but if you don't like risk then an annuity is probably better for you.

If you want to go with a one time investment I would go with either of the ETF's you have posted. Others you may want to look at are SPY and SDY. Another option with Vanguard is an ETF of ETF's confusing right? Well not really it is basically a managed ETF without the high fees of a managed fund because Vanguard is basically selling you all of their ETF's in one package. For example the stock symbol VTC holds all of Vanguard's corporate bond ETF's. So you are basically buying all of the ETF's that Vanguard holds for corporate bonds in one ETF instead of investing in multiple or all of them.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 9:01 PM Post
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The tortoise plan has proven more effective for 99.9% of investors if they are invested in low-cost index funds.

It isn't even necessarily tortoisey if expenses are curbed. There are blogs all over the place about guys retiring in their 30s using nothing but Vanguard indexes. Sorry, I'm older, retired and did fine, but this thread is rather amusing. I worked in finance for many years. The amount of people thinking they're better off targeting IPOs or messing around with bitcoin than they would be just dumping gobs of money into indexes is just always going to be funny. The math behind retiring early is really not that complicated. Don't make it harder than it has to be.

Joe Blow has no idea when to buy and sell a stock or a BTC. You may play that perfectly once or twice. You're not going to get it to work for 20, 30 years. You're just not.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 07, 2018, 10:15 PM Post
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My new company has a very generous retirement plan. dollar for dollar 4% match and a 5% match at the end of the year. So even if all you're doing is putting away 4% you are more or less saving 13% of your income. So I can totally see how someone who started there as a 22 year old could retire at 45 or so just on their 401K assuming they were saving like 18% of their income every check.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 08, 2018, 12:51 AM Post
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Most people with a decent income can retire early if that's truly what they want.

We've been conditioned to believe that you work til you're 65, hopefully have enough then and hopefully enjoy 20 years after that, but it doesn't have to be that way.

Basically just comes down to how much in the short-term that you're willing to sacrifice to slash your monthly budget to the bone and invest everything into an early retirement.

I wish I had had the same financial mindset when I was 18 that I do now because that would have definitely been a goal. Now I'm married and my spouse and I don't really have the same financial vision in that regard or it would certainly be still feasible.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 08, 2018, 1:40 AM Post
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I'll give an example, albeit a rough one. Say my wife and I marry at 25 with no retirement savings and buy a 100K house. We make a combined 50K net per year and want to retire at 45. We want to live off 25 net, just over 2K a month, which is difficult, but feasible. Its more feasible because mortgage payments will not figure into this for most of the exercise.

Now with cost of living it gets a little tricky; obviously 25K doesn't buy you 20 years from now what it does today. So for simplicity I'll figure in neither that nor raises and promotions.

Figuring in taxes and health insurance in retirement, we want 40K a year in retirement, which is partially taxable and partially tax sheltered in a Roth. So with the 4% rule, we'll need 1 million dollars for that.

My wife and I combined contribute 10K to our respective 401Ks, fully matched dollar for dollar -- some companies as Homer mentioned are even more generous. This leaves us 15K annually for other investments. We'll spend the first 7 years aggressively putting all 15K toward the mortgage in extra principal payments, guaranteeing we own the house outright within 7 years. We'll delay having children until age 30-31 so the kids and the added expense they bring hit around the same time the house is paid off.

After this, we'll put the extra 15K into a Roth IRA up to the maximum limits with the extra going into a traditional IRA.

Assuming 6% returns on an average for all accounts we would hit our goal in exactly 20 years, accumulating 1.08M by age 45 and retiring.


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