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The Investment Thread

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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 20, 2020, 7:15 AM Post
Posts: 1787
AmFamFan said:
A barrel of oil is now cheaper than a meal at McDonald's. WTI down over 30% today.

Perfect time for a road trip!


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 20, 2020, 8:07 AM Post
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superfly said:
homer said:
thebruce44 said:

FWIW, I'm 37, own investment property, have been maxing 401ks and IRAs for 7 or 8 years, have taxable investments, and still do not feel financially secure.


I'm a decade older than you, have been doing the same with IRA, 401K, and feel the same way. I'm terrified of outliving my retirement funds...I probably won't but it's why I live very frugally. I can't really make up lost ground when I'm 80 but I can while I am still able to work.


This is why I’ve been working the past several years toward being able to sustainably trade stocks. Zero desire to work for the man, I want to be financially independent, and I want to know that I can work when I want to work, anywhere I want to work. Taking a paycheck from somebody else for the rest of my life is going to leave me right in the position you feel insecure in in 15 years (I’m 31).

If you have interest in the markets in general look into it as a second hobby, maybe you find you love it and maybe you won’t. There’s no better feeling I’ve ever experienced though than a hard day “at the office” and going home with high 3 figures-4 figures to show for my work. I then cut lawns for exercise and extra income in between watching our little one ($450-500/week for child care with 6-18 month waitlists is asinine to us). I have a couple friends working the 9-5 and doing the same, strategy just has to be adjusted a bit.


For the record I think I understand investing as well or better than the average Joe. And I am comfortable with how much I sock away and how much I will have when I retire. My fear, which is probably irrational, is that the cost of healthcare will continue to rise dramatically and that what I am putting away now won't be enough should me or my wife get a serious illness.

I don't have the stomach to day trade. I dollar cost average into equal weighted S&P funds so I tilt a little more towards small caps. I am 100% invested in stocks so I do take more risk than most people my age. I do wonder, though, how people like you who are day traders and have never experienced a bear market are approaching things. This is my third big downturn since I started investing (dot com crash, great recession being the other two).

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 20, 2020, 8:39 AM Post
Posts: 21
You can make as much, if not more, when the stock market goes down once you understand shorting. I by no means have a full understanding of how everything works but I am separated my investing (non-work related) into 3 sections. Long stock investments (buying and holding certain stocks for dividend payment and long time growth), Short stocks (watching trends and researching for stocks that I feel are on a downtrend and shorting), and options (this one is completely new to me and I am just starting to dabble in it)


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 21, 2020, 2:18 PM Post
Posts: 8925
nodakfan17 said:
I challenge anyone to add up their Social Security contributions from their 20s and 30s and consider what a difference that 6% would have made in terms of paying student loans, buying a first home, paying for child care, or enabling other investment opportunities. Personally, I think we’re making one generation more secure at the expense of another.


You are exactly right. And that's not even hidden, it's by design. That worked when baby boomers were all in their peak earning years supporting the previous generation. Now the math doesn't work, and it's exploding the debt. Al Gore was right, there should have been a lock box. It truly is a Ponzi scheme, but it likely will never be changed. Old people vote.

Regarding pension vs 401k, one very important point is being missed. Taxes. You can have a Roth 401k and pay no taxes on it later in life when you need it. Pension income is taxed, of course. Beyond that though, having direct control is the most important thing- and that's why I far prefer 401k to SS or pension where someone else has the account.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 21, 2020, 8:37 PM Post
Posts: 749
AmFamFan said:
You can make as much, if not more, when the stock market goes down once you understand shorting. I by no means have a full understanding of how everything works but I am separated my investing (non-work related) into 3 sections. Long stock investments (buying and holding certain stocks for dividend payment and long time growth), Short stocks (watching trends and researching for stocks that I feel are on a downtrend and shorting), and options (this one is completely new to me and I am just starting to dabble in it)


Shorting is a losing strategy though since markets go up over time, unless you can reliably outsmart the market, something most people can’t do in their free time.

You can make money in a down market by rebalancing into cheap stocks though.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 21, 2020, 9:28 PM Post
Posts: 8297
FVBrewerFan said:
nodakfan17 said:
I challenge anyone to add up their Social Security contributions from their 20s and 30s and consider what a difference that 6% would have made in terms of paying student loans, buying a first home, paying for child care, or enabling other investment opportunities. Personally, I think we’re making one generation more secure at the expense of another.


Regarding pension vs 401k, one very important point is being missed. Taxes. You can have a Roth 401k and pay no taxes on it later in life when you need it. Pension income is taxed, of course. Beyond that though, having direct control is the most important thing- and that's why I far prefer 401k to SS or pension where someone else has the account.


regarding 401k/403b/IRA vs Roth versions, one key is to understand that depending on your current and future tax rates, the regular or the Roth version could be better for you. If your income tax bracket will be higher later in life, pay the taxes now with the Roth.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 22, 2020, 5:27 AM Post
Posts: 21
umphrey said:
AmFamFan said:
You can make as much, if not more, when the stock market goes down once you understand shorting. I by no means have a full understanding of how everything works but I am separated my investing (non-work related) into 3 sections. Long stock investments (buying and holding certain stocks for dividend payment and long time growth), Short stocks (watching trends and researching for stocks that I feel are on a downtrend and shorting), and options (this one is completely new to me and I am just starting to dabble in it)


Shorting is a losing strategy though since markets go up over time, unless you can reliably outsmart the market, something most people can’t do in their free time.

You can make money in a down market by rebalancing into cheap stocks though.



Totally agree long term shorting is not a good strategy, however the question was posed directly to day trading where a significant amount of money can be made on the short side.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 22, 2020, 5:50 AM Post
Posts: 1998
homer said:
I don't have the stomach to day trade. I dollar cost average into equal weighted S&P funds so I tilt a little more towards small caps. I am 100% invested in stocks so I do take more risk than most people my age. I do wonder, though, how people like you who are day traders and have never experienced a bear market are approaching things. This is my third big downturn since I started investing (dot com crash, great recession being the other two).


I began in late 08-09 as a college kid, made double on Las Vegas Sands and Ford preferred stock and it hooked me. I’ve taken time off a few times for other things, and the first 4-5 was basically a donation to tax writeoff, but now that I can consistently be profitable I actually prefer these volatile situations (election 2016, fall 2018, now etc), it allows us with smaller accounts to grow it with the volatility. I have no problem shorting, enjoy it more actually because there’s a lot of scam out there, but I do everything except my investments via options. Much less capital risked rather than buying 50 AAPL and then just staring at it for months on end.

New people without a doubt would struggle, but I’d argue there’s no better time to learn than during a market like the one we’re in...exposed to the worst right off the bat.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 23, 2020, 1:33 PM Post
Posts: 2723
I used to rant about Boomers and Social Security, complaining that all their money was parked on the shores of Vietnam. It's kind of true afterall. But I changed my mind for a few different reasons. 1) as mentioned above the drumbeat of empirical data that most people don't save enough. Second though was the realization though that most of the cost increases were driven by life span increases and demographic transition. Life span increases may continue incrementally, but the demographic transition is nearing maturity (aka the percentage of the population in different age categories is closer to stabilizing). Three no one complains when private companies fail to meet 10, 15 or 30 year projections. With my school budgeting experience I came to viscerally appreciate the importance of modest year to year corrections. Without that level of adjusting any 30 year projection for any company or government is going to end up either controlling the world because they have made so much money or be bankrupt many times over.
Also remember our SSI is 13%, 6.5 from you and 6.5 from your employer. Very small changes in the program now would have a very large impact on how long there continues to be a SSI 'surplus'

The surplus is actually one of the last things I realized is problematic. What would happen to the stock market if a mythical investor let's call him Warren Gates, suddenly bought 3 trillion dollars in stocks(AKA the value in the trust fund)? Of course it would over inflate prices on tons of stocks, Buffet has made a lot of comments during the last Bull market for not having enough places to park merely Billions in cash because the value isn't there. So there is reason to be concerned about over supplying the stock market with capital, when there are plenty of very useful investments like roads, bridges and public health that generate huge economic benefits.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 24, 2020, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 8297
igor67 said:
Also remember our SSI is 13%, 6.5 from you and 6.5 from your employer. Very small changes in the program now would have a very large impact on how long there continues to be a SSI 'surplus'


6.2% + 6.2%= 12.4% for Social Security

And yes, when the alarm bells started ringing a decade ago, we could have made minor changes that would have bought the current structure decades of viability. It will always exist, but in 2034 it will have enough for only 2/3rds of its current projected payouts since the Trust Fund will be drained. Heck, today we could still make minor changes to make it viable. I warn my students that if they are living off Social Security checks, they did something wrong. $5/paycheck into a retirement account starting at age 20 would yield over $50k at retirement. They get excited and want to know what $20 would do, or $50. Since they all make $12/hour, it's easy to think of skipping one fast food meal or one Starbucks per pay period.

While it made minimal impact for stimulus, Obama's SS tax cut hurt the viability a little. I believe we dropped our portion from 6.2 to 2.2% for a year or so. Maybe it impacted the longterm projections by a few months or years, not much in the greater scheme of things.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 24, 2020, 2:36 PM Post
Posts: 1787
I was a 1099 employee my first year out of college while working in a commissioned sales role. It was the best job I could get due to the financial crisis and subsequent recession. I wasn’t earning that much money and was paying the full 12.4% on the little money I did earn. Brutal.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 24, 2020, 9:14 PM Post
Posts: 2723
Thanks for the correction on the percentage.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 25, 2020, 3:19 PM Post
Posts: 1306
Location: Washburn, WI
JackNicholson1974 said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
Bizarre day for sure. I was positive 16% today, but that is because for years I have been heavily invested in $ATHX a company that is close to breaking out with their product, one of the indications it treats is ARDS which is essentially one of the complications from COVID-19 that leads to death.



Im still long ATHX. My portfolio is up 186% since March 1. The CEO just did an interview on Fox News today. We will see double digits soon.


Bought into ATHX after you initially mentioned it in here a few weeks ago. Couldn’t be happier with the investment so far! Very promising company that could be a real player in the Covid fight.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: May 13, 2020, 9:47 AM Post
Posts: 1787
If you could only buy one, what stock would you feel better about long term - Walmart or Target? Why?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: May 13, 2020, 11:47 AM Post
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As of the end of April, as many Americans who have received stimulus checks chose to put them into savings (38%) as chose to pay rent (14%) or pay for food and basic household needs (25%) combined.

https://www.axios.com/americans-to-save-not-spend-stimulus-checks-bb84737a-a924-4613-a471-169a07942da1.html


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: May 13, 2020, 7:26 PM Post

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Posts: 575
RollieTime said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
Bizarre day for sure. I was positive 16% today, but that is because for years I have been heavily invested in $ATHX a company that is close to breaking out with their product, one of the indications it treats is ARDS which is essentially one of the complications from COVID-19 that leads to death.



Im still long ATHX. My portfolio is up 186% since March 1. The CEO just did an interview on Fox News today. We will see double digits soon.


Bought into ATHX after you initially mentioned it in here a few weeks ago. Couldn’t be happier with the investment so far! Very promising company that could be a real player in the Covid fight.



That’s awesome that you got in. Go long. If Multistem works for Stroke or ARDS is could mean life changing money. That might be 5 years away yet, but if it hits $20, it will eventually hit 50, 100 and who knows. I’m still long 18k shares at $1.49 average.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: June 01, 2020, 4:23 PM Post
Posts: 1998
Raise your hand if you’re still holding anything from the crisis of march 2020.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: June 03, 2020, 12:45 PM Post
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superfly said:
Raise your hand if you’re still holding anything from the crisis of march 2020.


I didn't touch any of my investments in March which seems to have been the right call since they have mostly recovered. If the economy is left alone there will definitely be a second crash later this year but I expect government to step in and prevent that from happening, especially in an election year.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: June 03, 2020, 1:18 PM Post
Posts: 8925
superfly said:
Raise your hand if you’re still holding anything from the crisis of march 2020.


Financially, I have definitely benefited from the crisis. I pulled a bunch out of the market when the S&P hit around 3,150, and another chunk around 3,300. Reinvested at the bottom. Now that S&P is back up over 3,100...yea it's been a good ride this year.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: June 03, 2020, 3:26 PM Post
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Wrap Technologies has almost doubled over the last week due to the protests. I can see significant investments in more humane means of people detainment and control. I'm doing really well so far on that investment.

What companies are best poised to benefit from an increased investment in retail security for smaller stores?


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