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The Investment Thread

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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 04, 2021, 4:29 PM Post
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owbc said:
Bitcoin is classic speculation in action. It behaves like a more volatile form of gold or similar commodities. The anti-correlation with the US dollar index is pretty obvious--BTC bottomed out on 3/16/2020, DXY peaked on 3/20/2020. Will the US dollar keep dropping in 2021? Probably, but not as much as 2020. And then you throw in the randomness of BTC speculation???


The US Dollar is going to drop because the US Treasury is like printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and prints money. If the last budget bill is any indication of what is ahead for the dollar it is going to drop some more.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 04, 2021, 4:32 PM Post
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nate82 said:
owbc said:
Bitcoin is classic speculation in action. It behaves like a more volatile form of gold or similar commodities. The anti-correlation with the US dollar index is pretty obvious--BTC bottomed out on 3/16/2020, DXY peaked on 3/20/2020. Will the US dollar keep dropping in 2021? Probably, but not as much as 2020. And then you throw in the randomness of BTC speculation???


The US Dollar is going to drop because the US Treasury is like printer go brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and prints money. If the last budget bill is any indication of what is ahead for the dollar it is going to drop some more.


That was the policy of the current administration. There is a new one taking over in two weeks. We don't know what the new administration will do yet. It's possible that all future stimulus will be blocked by Congress.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 04, 2021, 4:44 PM Post
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owbc said:

That was the policy of the current administration. There is a new one taking over in two weeks. We don't know what the new administration will do yet. It's possible that all future stimulus will be blocked by Congress.


Stimulus sure but that didn't really increase the debt by all that much the budget bill though now that added a whole lot more to the national debt and most of that money is just going overseas for dumb reasons. So no matter what the current or future administrations do the dollar is going to weaken due to the debt issues unless you are saying congress is going to do a 180 and will actually start caring about the national debt?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 04, 2021, 11:33 PM Post
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nate82 said:
Stimulus sure but that didn't really increase the debt by all that much


Well, the stimulus part wasn't borrowed but just printed.

The Fed recently changed their "aim for 2% inflation per year" to "aim for an average of 2%," which gives them a good bit more liberty to keep the printers humming if so desired. I don't see any cause to believe Democrats or Republicans will halt any of it. Too many votes out there to buy.

Along with national debt there's also massive corporate debt. Probably also a good number of businesses which got blown up in March but will manage to hang on for a year+ before calling it quits.

I see it as a matter of when, but that's still the hardest part. Not like I want to hold onto cash for two years or longer before anything finally happens. Buffett bought some interest in a gold mining company when before he's always hated gold. Granted, a company is a little different yet still kinda the same since their value directly relates to gold price. I also hear some folks recommending agriculture ETFs since poor and rich alike still have to eat. I also wonder about bargain places like Dollar General/Family Dollar, but I don't know much about them yet.

I just put a buy in for Ethereum, largely because my bitcoin friend steered me the right way last time and he studies crypto pretty hard. But yeah, I keep trying to think of how a person is actually supposed to value that stuff and there's just no way. Total guessing game apart from its value seeming to be tied to the inverse strength of the dollar.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 05, 2021, 11:52 PM Post

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What gives Bitcoin value. I understand that is is a “currency” but it is a currency that absolutely nobody will ever spend. You buying groceries with your Bitcoin? If it is never used for the one thing that it is - then what is it? That’s why I have never invested in it. People “want it” because it’s going up in value. It’s just a giant Ponzi scheme. Nobody buying today is buying it to spend with, they are buying to sell to the next guy at a higher price.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 9:24 AM Post
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weed stocks going through the roof today

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 11:59 AM Post
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JackNicholson1974 said:
What gives Bitcoin value. I understand that is is a “currency” but it is a currency that absolutely nobody will ever spend. You buying groceries with your Bitcoin? If it is never used for the one thing that it is - then what is it? That’s why I have never invested in it. People “want it” because it’s going up in value. It’s just a giant Ponzi scheme. Nobody buying today is buying it to spend with, they are buying to sell to the next guy at a higher price.

I have some reservations about Bitcoin, but I’ll bite here.

Part of Bitcoin’s appeal is that there is a finite supply. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. Meanwhile, countries print new fiat money every day. Even gold, which has a fixed supply on Earth, could hypothetically be mined from other planets or asteroids some day.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 12:06 PM Post
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nodakfan17 said:
JackNicholson1974 said:
What gives Bitcoin value. I understand that is is a “currency” but it is a currency that absolutely nobody will ever spend. You buying groceries with your Bitcoin? If it is never used for the one thing that it is - then what is it? That’s why I have never invested in it. People “want it” because it’s going up in value. It’s just a giant Ponzi scheme. Nobody buying today is buying it to spend with, they are buying to sell to the next guy at a higher price.

I have some reservations about Bitcoin, but I’ll bite here.

Part of Bitcoin’s appeal is that there is a finite supply. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoins. Meanwhile, countries print new fiat money every day. Even gold, which has a fixed supply on Earth, could hypothetically be mined from other planets or asteroids some day.


So it's basically a collector's item?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 12:35 PM Post
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Optimistic articles on bitcoin say that once bigger firms start to accept it as an investment its price will start to stabilize so much more than now. The ones buying now like the idea that they can get in before the big guys do and make a lot of money from it. There's a few select applications where you can pay in bitcoin, but of course with it being on fire lately nobody is going to. But even then the value of the dollar isn't going to turn into Zimbabwe in my lifetime, and so I have a hard time believing I'll be paying for gas with it anytime soon.

A lot more firms are starting to get into it now. And I wonder how many firms have hated it so far specifically because Warren Buffet has been very vocal that he'll never buy it.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 12:45 PM Post
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My local gas station advertises that they sell Bitcoin (via a kiosk), but they don’t accept it as payment. Ironic?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 12:59 PM Post
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You can basically buy anything and everything in Japan with Bitcoins. I believe you can do that in South Korea also and some of the other smaller countries in Asia also. There is a strip club in Nevada that you can pay in Bitcoin and also a gun store in Texas that you can purchase guns with Bitcoin. There are other applications that can be used with the chainblock technology other than Bitcoin.

Though ultimately I would love to see the US go back to the gold standard but instead of gold tie the US currency to Bitcoin. I think more countries will start to do this especially if the dollar keeps on dropping like it has. At some point the fiat currencies will either be toilet paper or backed up by something like gold or Bitcoin basically monetary policy should go backwards to be able to move forward.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 1:20 PM Post
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I'm sorry nate but I don't follow your reasoning at all. Bitcoin is practically the embodiment of innovation making something that never existed before and turning it into a commodity. You literally just run computers to mine more. Whereas gold is completely limited, at best you can create more wealth by digging more out of the ground but it is still highly limited.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 1:43 PM Post
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igor67 said:
I'm sorry nate but I don't follow your reasoning at all. Bitcoin is practically the embodiment of innovation making something that never existed before and turning it into a commodity. You literally just run computers to mine more. Whereas gold is completely limited, at best you can create more wealth by digging more out of the ground but it is still highly limited.


There can only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in existence you can't mine anymore than that.

So Bitcoin is the better choice over gold as you can't create more the 21 million.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 1:55 PM Post
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Thank you I was unaware of that particular detail. That does leave me wondering why you would want to make it so as we have more people (about 2 billion more by 2050) you would guarantee there to be exactly the same amount of money available as that just makes everyone poorer (on average)


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 2:29 PM Post
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igor67 said:
Thank you I was unaware of that particular detail. That does leave me wondering why you would want to make it so as we have more people (about 2 billion more by 2050) you would guarantee there to be exactly the same amount of money available as that just makes everyone poorer (on average)


No it won't make everyone poorer the printing of more and more money is what does that.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 2:31 PM Post
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igor67 said:
Thank you I was unaware of that particular detail. That does leave me wondering why you would want to make it so as we have more people (about 2 billion more by 2050) you would guarantee there to be exactly the same amount of money available as that just makes everyone poorer (on average)

Sure, as the population grows, the average person might possess less Bitcoin. However, the remaining Bitcoin would be more valuable. If a new car costs 1 Bitcoin in 2050, it might only cost 0.99 Bitcoin in 2051.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 3:38 PM Post
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That also means if you are say a ditch digger paid in Bitcoin you would need to be paid less wage in the future than you are now. Which maybe in theory sound workable, but what happens when someone invents something like say a vaccine that most people desperately want, but actually costs very little to produce? Since we'd have to pay some amount of Bitcoin for this new thing, everyone else has less Bitcoin to spend and the car dealer has to immediately lower his price to compensate (or sell fewer cars), but the cost of car was already set by the higher prices he paid for wages and materials!
You need the amount of currency to be changeable since people generate so many less than tangible products and are also both resources (more labor) and costs (more food and cars). Hyper inflation and deflation are both signs that whatever currency you are using is completely out of touch with with people need for survival and prosperity.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 3:57 PM Post
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Even the most bullish crypto enthusiasts probably view Bitcoin as a viable alternative to the fiat currency issued by governments (not a replacement). Me personally? I’m a little skeptical, but I like diversification and value freedom of choice.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 4:05 PM Post
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igor67 said:
That also means if you are say a ditch digger paid in Bitcoin you would need to be paid less wage in the future than you are now. Which maybe in theory sound workable, but what happens when someone invents something like say a vaccine that most people desperately want, but actually costs very little to produce? Since we'd have to pay some amount of Bitcoin for this new thing, everyone else has less Bitcoin to spend and the car dealer has to immediately lower his price to compensate (or sell fewer cars), but the cost of car was already set by the higher prices he paid for wages and materials!
You need the amount of currency to be changeable since people generate so many less than tangible products and are also both resources (more labor) and costs (more food and cars). Hyper inflation and deflation are both signs that whatever currency you are using is completely out of touch with with people need for survival and prosperity.


You are thinking of this entirely wrong. If you attach a currency to Bitcoin you would be paid in the currency not in Bitcoin. The value of the currency depending on how much you print will be tied to Bitcoin and thus would have actual value and backing behind it. If a country goes crazy and prints off a lot of money the valuation of that said currency would then go down because it would then buy less Bitcoin.

This would actually force governments to be more wise with their currency and debt. Instead of just passing it on to whatever generation which is what the fiat currencies have done this may not make people poorer today but it will definitely make the poor poorer in the future.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 4:11 PM Post
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nate82 said:
This would actually force governments to be more wise with their currency and debt. Instead of just passing it on to whatever generation which is what the fiat currencies have done this may not make people poorer today but it will definitely make the poor poorer in the future.

This is why I like crypto. I don’t own much, but its very existence might force central banks to act more responsibly. Competition is good.


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