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The Investment Thread

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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 4:29 PM Post
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While I am not a Bitcoin fan (or gold) for somewhat distinct reasons I would be far more worried about a return to the gold standard for general economic reasons, not investing reasons. If you are talking about just creating a permanently fixed asset for trade that is a very different discussion, it is basically the same as investing in something like ultra rare cars.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 6:13 PM Post
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nodakfan17 said:
its very existence might force central banks to act more responsibly.


Come on now, I think you know full well that will never be the case.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 6:31 PM Post
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I just don't understand why you wouldn't just invest in stocks when you have so many corporations making absurd amounts of money right now. Amazon is at $3100 right now. It was $1900 a year ago, $1500 the year before that, $1200 the year before that, etc. etc. It's as close to guaranteed profit as you can get.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 7:54 PM Post
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igor67 said:
While I am not a Bitcoin fan (or gold) for somewhat distinct reasons I would be far more worried about a return to the gold standard for general economic reasons, not investing reasons. If you are talking about just creating a permanently fixed asset for trade that is a very different discussion, it is basically the same as investing in something like ultra rare cars.

A rare car might be a good store of value, but it’s not really a suitable medium of exchange (you can’t use it to buy groceries). Bitcoin and precious metals are easily divisible and could be used to facilitate commerce.

I think we can forget a return to the gold standard. When FDR took the US off the gold standard in 1933, the price of gold was $25 per ounce. Today gold is ~$1,900 per ounce. People are going to know something is up.


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 8:42 PM Post
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nodakfan17 said:
I think we can forget a return to the gold standard. When FDR took the US off the gold standard in 1933, the price of gold was $25 per ounce. Today gold is ~$1,900 per ounce. People are going to know something is up.


The only reason it was that low is because of other factors though it did increase in price magically after all of the gold was stolen from the American people by FDR. The greatest transfer of wealth from the regular people to the government in recent history. I believe going back to the gold standard will actually increase the wealth of the poor and return what was wrongfully stolen from the people.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 9:38 PM Post
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I think cryptocurrency is on the right path, but I don't know that Bitcoin or the others are it. What I think is the value of cryptocurrency is the ability to use blockchain or similar technology to track ownership and be able to "cancel" (for lack of a better word) currency that is acquired by illegal means (such as ransoms, fraud, etc.). Plenty of holes to shoot in that idea, but I think there is something along those lines that is possible.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 06, 2021, 10:18 PM Post
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Gold has a few other uses, but it's real world value is it's incredibly high electrical conductivity and great resistance to corrosion. So I find it very unfortunate that this rare substance is mostly wasted on a medium for trade because our ancestors thought it looked pretty and gave it value based purely on the power of belief, especially since we have found other items to use purely as convenient methods of trade.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 4:27 AM Post
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nate82 said:
nodakfan17 said:
I think we can forget a return to the gold standard. When FDR took the US off the gold standard in 1933, the price of gold was $25 per ounce. Today gold is ~$1,900 per ounce. People are going to know something is up.


The only reason it was that low is because of other factors though it did increase in price magically after all of the gold was stolen from the American people by FDR. The greatest transfer of wealth from the regular people to the government in recent history. I believe going back to the gold standard will actually increase the wealth of the poor and return what was wrongfully stolen from the people.

When gold became illegal for individuals to own during the Great Depression, the US government bought it back from individuals at $25/oz and then later declared its value to be $35/oz. That’s a pretty big swindle, but it doesn’t explain how gold went from $35 to $1,900.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 8:50 AM Post
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Normal inflation would account for most of that price shift, without resorting to a formula car prices in the Depression were 1-2000 dollars and my grandfather purchased his house for $1000, in a small town of no particular economic value that sold for $40K years ago. That gives a range of 20-40 times an increase due to inflation. Those are crude comparisons of course, but inflation clearly explains most of that price change. I can sort of see where some of those historical details support a notion of something lost, I do not know the precise amount of gold back currency my grandfather had in 1933, but I do know that because of the WPA he had a job and was able to keep making the payments on that house and turn that into a solid blue collar life, so I'd have a hard time claiming he came out behind. Somewhat more generally I think it is worth asking in general how far back in time one is willing to hold onto that type of grievance. I said generally because there are other types of calls for settling old disputes that I don't think we (collective) do ourselves any favors in demanding direct compensation for. In this case my grandfather has been dead for 29+ years, which means a pretty good portion of this board wasn't even alive to have any kind of connection to that. So while understanding the history is always super relevant, any policy needs to be firmly grounded in the needs of the present and future.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 2:15 PM Post
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Would sure love to make a play on solar. One would figure Biden will eventually be throwing a lot of money at it along with Congress making sure subsidies are in every forthcoming stimulus bill like the last one. And hadn't Trump raised tariffs on Chinese solar? One would guess Biden will also repeal those and China makes more PV cells than anyone. I see that Jinko Solar is on the exchange, though I haven't really run its numbers yet. Any other recommendations folks here might have?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 2:43 PM Post
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nodakfan17 said:
nate82 said:
This would actually force governments to be more wise with their currency and debt. Instead of just passing it on to whatever generation which is what the fiat currencies have done this may not make people poorer today but it will definitely make the poor poorer in the future.

This is why I like crypto. I don’t own much, but its very existence might force central banks to act more responsibly. Competition is good.


The text attached to the Bitcoin genesis block was "the Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks". This was the ultimate goal. You can argue Bitcoin has strayed from the original vision, since it is now somewhat centralized in mining pools and requires so much energy. It is also not an efficient way to transfer money. The protocol has not advanced, hence the idea of it being a store of value.

I am not going to argue for Bitcoin though. I own a bit because I see it as a good investment in this current cycle. Most of my investment is in Ethereum and I hold a lot of IOTA, though that hasn't been a great investment so far. I view ETH as the next stage of distributed ledger technology, and IOTA as the next stage after ETH. These technologies could change so much more than just finance in the long run.


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 3:07 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
Would sure love to make a play on solar. One would figure Biden will eventually be throwing a lot of money at it along with Congress making sure subsidies are in every forthcoming stimulus bill like the last one. And hadn't Trump raised tariffs on Chinese solar? One would guess Biden will also repeal those and China makes more PV cells than anyone. I see that Jinko Solar is on the exchange, though I haven't really run its numbers yet. Any other recommendations folks here might have?


Stay far far far far far away from solar.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 4:28 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
Would sure love to make a play on solar. One would figure Biden will eventually be throwing a lot of money at it along with Congress making sure subsidies are in every forthcoming stimulus bill like the last one. And hadn't Trump raised tariffs on Chinese solar? One would guess Biden will also repeal those and China makes more PV cells than anyone. I see that Jinko Solar is on the exchange, though I haven't really run its numbers yet. Any other recommendations folks here might have?


Fuel cells are good one to check out if you want to look at alternate energy.

FCEL

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 4:47 PM Post
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Yeah my father had told me to buy FCEL when it was at $3. But I did what all sons do when fathers give advice.

So you think solar wont pick up? I already have Energy Transfer, so Im not looking to do more oil/gas.

I picked up Intel on its dip a bit ago, but I have no real long-term hope for it and wouldnt mind moving it to something else.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 5:15 PM Post
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There are some solar ETFs you might want to check out.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 07, 2021, 8:20 PM Post
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I don't believe solar or wind power have a sustainable growth and you maybe able to ride the wave but I would get out as soon as you start seeing the stock dip. I wouldn't hold any solar stocks for the long term that industry just doesn't have the growth potential to support the high stock prices.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 09, 2021, 11:03 AM Post
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Although we didn't get into Tesla early enough (when it was $70/share), we were able to get in a month or so over the recent 5 for 1 split. The thing is that Tesla is more than a car company -- they are solar, batteries, and more. Musk is using his technologies to reduce carbon and it makes sense... and is working. It also seems that Tesla is a bit of a novelty stock for millennials, too. They would rather own a piece of a company not necessarily because they are looking at dividends or P/E ratio, but because they want to be part of something else. I don't know when the price of many of these stocks will start correcting, but it will have to happen at some point.

I guess Musk's net worth increased more in the past 12 months than Bill Gates' entire net worth. Crazy...


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 09, 2021, 8:40 PM Post
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I'm way too jumpy and got out at $600. Maybe a good lesson to wait until things level off. I think it's valued at something like the second-biggest company in the US right now. Saw an internet post recently of a young kid who had $65 to his name and wanted to get into investing, so of course he bought Tesla. But it makes me wonder when there's eventually a hiccup, if all the fractional shares left at once, what sort of difference might that make.

The EV explosion does make me think about becoming a nickel miner, though. Thinking about Vale right now. Debt, but they've spent a lot of it on environmental stuff, which is obviously more inviting to Tesla than that one big nickel company in Russia which turned a river red. There's one EV company in China that's getting huge, but I kinda also don't want anything to do with China.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 11, 2021, 2:04 PM Post
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I think it's really cool that the optimism and hype for Tesla's technology drove people to invest in and believe in what Tesla stands for. Elon Musk is a big reason why batteries have come down in price much faster than expected. And now all of the traditional automakers are rushing to try and catch up with Tesla. That wouldn't have been possible without all of the bullish investment, it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Assuming the investment dollars continue to get re-invested into growth...


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: January 13, 2021, 10:09 PM Post
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/technology/bitcoin-passwords-wallets-fortunes.html The unforseen issue with bit coin. Remembering passwords

reillymcshane said:
Remember what Yoda said:

"Cubs lead to Cardinals. Cardinals lead to dislike. Dislike leads to hate. Hate leads to constipation."


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