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The Investment Thread

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Offline thebruce44 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 11, 2021, 3:03 PM Post
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My ETH and IOTA are doing very well over the last month. And looking at the historical cycles, we have a very long way to go this round.

I'm not going to try to convince anyone to invest, because it is so volatile. That being said, most of the analysts I follow have the top of the BTC cycle at $250k - $280k. If ETH and other alt coins follow, that could mean ETH at $20,000. I plan to start taking profits at set intervals after BTC hits $100k. If everything crashes before then, so be it- I will still be up from all of my purchases over 2018/19. Getting in now is riskier, but I think can still be profitable. Just don't invest in Dodgecoin.
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Offline nodakfan17 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 11, 2021, 3:59 PM Post
Posts: 2314
How do analysts determine a top BTC cycle of $250K-$280K?

I’m not skeptical, just genuinely curious.
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Offline thebruce44 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 11, 2021, 4:19 PM Post
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nodakfan17 said:
How do analysts determine a top BTC cycle of $250K-$280K?

I’m not skeptical, just genuinely curious.


The model I've been looking at models scarcity in terms of stock to flow ratio. You will find lots of good information if you Google BTC stock to flow.

I won't pretend to fully understand it, but the cyclical nature of BTC seems obvious to me at this point. Essentially I think BTC will be worth more in the coming months than it was worth over the last year when I was buying. I think charting the past cycles can help estimate how this cycle will proceed. Cashing out throughout the run up means you don't need to guess at the peak.
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Offline GAME05 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 14, 2021, 10:55 AM Post
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I definitely agree on the cyclical nature of it. Plus the alternatives don't make near as much sense. Suddenly staying on some high plateau ignores its price history, and I think it's also safe to say it has some sort of value even if it is difficult to wrap your head around.

One guy I watch is Dante Aches Crypto (one word), who talks a lot about the cycle and is always reminding people not to hold forever and see their earnings disappear in the dip. Plus I just put more trust in that perspective more than any "to the moon" or "it's rat poison" predictions.

I just haven't been able to wrap my head around whether this cycle is predicated on timing (whatever Etherium 2.0 is I have no clue) or more a matter of dipping after it hits some price-point. Either way, Bruce, I think your idea of a slow withdrawal is the smartest one and I'll plan on doing the same. I'm thinking around late summer is when I'll start to pull back. At least that's the timeline people seem to be talking about.
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Offline homer Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 14, 2021, 12:04 PM Post
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nate82 said:
homer said:
nodakfan17 said:
I’ve professed support for crypto on BF before, but I’d never give anyone the hard sell. It’s highly speculative and volatile (for now); however, it does put pressure on Central Banks to act more responsibly. For example, Bitcoin use is growing rapidly in Nigeria because people have more faith in Bitcoin than the local currency. Corrupt Central Banks in other parts of the world can also freeze banks accounts with little or no due process. A de-centralized currency like Bitcoin could empower individuals and cut down on government corruption.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coinde ... an%3famp=1


I am very interested in blockchain as it apparently has commercial use even if digital currencies don't catch on as actual currencies. I just can't wrap my head around how to explain what it is or does or how it might be useful just yet.


Check these two links out this should explain blockchain about as simply as you can.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QphJEO9ZX6s
https://www2.deloitte.com/ch/en/pages/s ... ained.html


These were great. So in the case of Ethereum....

Ethereum is the blockchain and the people along the chain that validate the smart contracts are rewarded in Ether coins. Is that sort of the gist of it?

The smart contracts seem to be the commercial part that could really improve efficiency across a multitude of industries.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Offline thebruce44 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 15, 2021, 1:48 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
I definitely agree on the cyclical nature of it. Plus the alternatives don't make near as much sense. Suddenly staying on some high plateau ignores its price history, and I think it's also safe to say it has some sort of value even if it is difficult to wrap your head around.

One guy I watch is Dante Aches Crypto (one word), who talks a lot about the cycle and is always reminding people not to hold forever and see their earnings disappear in the dip. Plus I just put more trust in that perspective more than any "to the moon" or "it's rat poison" predictions.

I just haven't been able to wrap my head around whether this cycle is predicated on timing (whatever Etherium 2.0 is I have no clue) or more a matter of dipping after it hits some price-point. Either way, Bruce, I think your idea of a slow withdrawal is the smartest one and I'll plan on doing the same. I'm thinking around late summer is when I'll start to pull back. At least that's the timeline people seem to be talking about.


If you withdraw over time it really doesn't matter if the cycle is based on timing or price. I am in crypto for the long run as I think it is a disruptive technology, so therefore I should be investing for the long term. That being said, I think the question to ask yourself is, if I withdraw now, will I be able to buy the same amount after the bubble bursts for a smaller amount. Yes- it is totally trying to time the market, so hopefully history continues to repeat itself and models are correct. I am not aware of another investment vehicle that has an event built into its protocol that changes its value in fixed intervals...and one that is still relatively unknown technically and with a low barrier to entry- the perfect storm for uninformed moon boys investing because of memes or Elon tweets to further drive the volatility.

Anyway, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. We'll see how the next 10 months go.
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Online nate82 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 16, 2021, 12:19 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
homer said:

These were great. So in the case of Ethereum....

Ethereum is the blockchain and the people along the chain that validate the smart contracts are rewarded in Ether coins. Is that sort of the gist of it?

The smart contracts seem to be the commercial part that could really improve efficiency across a multitude of industries.


Yes, there are a lot of commercial parts that can be used by using block chain. I believe there is a lot of banking products being developed using the block chain which should make financials more secure.
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Online wallus Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 16, 2021, 4:11 PM Post
Posts: 2075
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?
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Online nate82 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 16, 2021, 4:51 PM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
wallus said:
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?


Phoenix is horrible right now with all of the California, New York and other state refuges. The city of Phoenix alone added 80,000 people last year and the housing market is suffering because of this for buyers. If you are seller here it is awesome as prices are up about 200% in nearly every neighborhood. For example a neighbor where I live had their house on the market for 0 days and get 10 offers and the final offer they accepted was for $200k more than what the market value was for houses in this neighborhood go for.

So if you are seller in the Phoenix market it is good but if you are a buyer you better be prepared to pay a premium for a house. The 80,000 people added in 2020 which includes people who moved out of the city, this is the highest or one of the highest population increases across the US.
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Offline nodakfan17 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:11 AM Post
Posts: 2314
wallus said:
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?


I bought my current home in the Green Bay area for $213K in 2015. My current Zillow value is $279K (which I believe is accurate based on comparable sales). That’s about a 5% annualized growth for an area that has experienced a very modest population increase over the past decade. I’m not suggesting it’s overpriced, but there can’t be many deals out there.
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Offline CheezWizHed Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:13 AM Post
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The Twin Cities is nuts. I moved here 4 years ago and houses were being sold the day they were put on the market. I was able to extend up into the $400k range so there was less competition, but the $200-$350k range was fierce. Anything less than $200k and you are buying garbage.

And that hasn't changed in 4 years. A friend of mine just sold their place (to move somewhere warmer like Texas...). They had their house on the market for 2 days - they had 22 showings and 6 offers.
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Offline owbc Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 12:59 PM Post
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It is well-documented that as a country we're not building nearly enough housing to keep up with demand. That said, current surge is mostly caused by low interest rates plus people wanting more space during the pandemic. Here in Seattle the news likes to run stories about people leaving for cheaper 'Zoom towns' but the reality is that our housing prices are even more insane than everywhere else. The median price just hit $800,000.

Is it overpriced? It's just supply and demand.

Once you have the house, good luck trying to get any work done on it. And in the unlikely event that you can find a contractor, expect to pay 50% premiums due to materials and labor shortages [laughing]
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Online wallus Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 1:40 PM Post
Posts: 2075
I have looked into building new as my gf's dad is a home builder. He laughed and said just wait til the bubble crashes as nothing makes sense for investments. So I guess that is what I will do, be ready when the bubble bursts again.
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Offline thebruce44 Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 2:58 PM Post
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wallus said:
I have looked into building new as my gf's dad is a home builder. He laughed and said just wait til the bubble crashes as nothing makes sense for investments. So I guess that is what I will do, be ready when the bubble bursts again.


You could be missing out on another 5 years of growth before the correction though.
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Online wallus Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 6:20 PM Post
Posts: 2075
thebruce44 said:
wallus said:
I have looked into building new as my gf's dad is a home builder. He laughed and said just wait til the bubble crashes as nothing makes sense for investments. So I guess that is what I will do, be ready when the bubble bursts again.


You could be missing out on another 5 years of growth before the correction though.


I think I just need to wait until they lift the foreclosure ban which throws the whole "supply and demand" claim out the window.
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Offline Jimbo Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 7:16 PM Post
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Location: Waukesha, WI
wallus said:
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?


I live in a condo community in Waukesha. Last year, I had six neighbors who had lived here fewer than four years sell their property at a gain that computes to an annual 6%-8%.
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Offline LouisEly Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:11 PM Post
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Jimbo said:
wallus said:
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?


I live in a condo community in Waukesha. Last year, I had six neighbors who had lived here fewer than four years sell their property at a gain that computes to an annual 6%-8%.

I will be listing soon, and I would love for my place to have appreciated at an annual 6%. But near north Chicago isn't quite as hot with all of the restaurants shut down and all of the riots/looting last summer. I think I'm far enough away, but 6% ARR from when I bought it four years ago would be an absolute dream... it's what I would need in order to not lose money on it, given all of the repairs.
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Online wallus Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 8:33 PM Post
Posts: 2075
Jimbo said:
wallus said:
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?


I live in a condo community in Waukesha. Last year, I had six neighbors who had lived here fewer than four years sell their property at a gain that computes to an annual 6%-8%.


That isn't surprising in this market. If I were more brave, I would sell all of my properties right now and then look to buy later after the adjustment.
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Offline Fear The Chorizo Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:25 PM Post
Posts: 5432
LouisEly said:
Jimbo said:
wallus said:
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?


I live in a condo community in Waukesha. Last year, I had six neighbors who had lived here fewer than four years sell their property at a gain that computes to an annual 6%-8%.

I will be listing soon, and I would love for my place to have appreciated at an annual 6%. But near north Chicago isn't quite as hot with all of the restaurants shut down and all of the riots/looting last summer. I think I'm far enough away, but 6% ARR from when I bought it four years ago would be an absolute dream... it's what I would need in order to not lose money on it, given all of the repairs.


5 years ago we moved from a pretty well-to-do neighborhood north of Chicago to a far west burb outside MPLS....we wound up making a small profit on our home sale in IL and thought we bought at the right time in our current MN locale. A few weeks ago we just saw our neighbor's house and other nearby homes sell for close to 175% of what their value was back in early 2016, and our old home back in IL is currently under contract for close to 10 percent lower than what we sold it for back then. The housing market is exploding in many places, but it is stagnant to declining in others - and that's even with all the levers trying to prevent a flood of foreclosures from happening right now. Also, rent is getting crazy expensive pretty much everywhere, to the point where it's more financially sound to overpay for a house in a mortgage one can barely afford compared to a similar monthly rent payment for something crummy and you get zero equity from.
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Offline Fear The Chorizo Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:30 PM Post
Posts: 5432
CheezWizHed said:
The Twin Cities is nuts. I moved here 4 years ago and houses were being sold the day they were put on the market. I was able to extend up into the $400k range so there was less competition, but the $200-$350k range was fierce. Anything less than $200k and you are buying garbage.

And that hasn't changed in 4 years. A friend of mine just sold their place (to move somewhere warmer like Texas...). They had their house on the market for 2 days - they had 22 showings and 6 offers.


Many homes that aren't dumps in that $300-500K price range are often sold or have offers/inquiries before they every actually hit the market around here - even during dead of winter.
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