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The Investment Thread

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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 22, 2021, 10:08 AM Post
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Location: Waukesha, WI
JackNicholson1974 said:

Jimbo said:
We bought ours for $130K and at one time could have gotten $170K just before the crash, where it dropped to $120K. Now, I could get $200K, if not more. A couple of months ago I mentioned to the wife that if the market starts to drop again, we're selling and cashing in on the profit. I won't make the same mistake twice. She wasn't too happy with the suggestion.


Why sell? I never understood that, but i hear people say it. Unless your plan is to sell now, rent or live with a relative, then wait to buy when the next market dip happens. If not, then you’re just selling your 200k house (that was 130) and buying another 200k house (that used to be 130) or buying a 130k house that used to be 100k. Which presumably is less house than you have currently. If the entire market is going up, unless your plan is to NOT buy a new home, your not really gaining anything besides the headache of moving.


OK, my bad. I left out that moving to a rental would be needed to make it pay off. That is why she scoffed at the thought. Plus, we are most likely within ten years of retirement, which means selling anyways and retiring to our TBD forever-city.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 22, 2021, 11:16 AM Post
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PlayerHader said:
wallus said:
So is real estate overpriced or really overpriced?

I have been itching to pick up another property the last 6 months and just can't find anything decent. I had one opportunity that I just missed and another that would have been good. (I could have bought it for $175,000 less than what it sold for).

What are the real estate investors on here seeing out there?


I'm not a real estate expert, but I'd have probably moved on this deal...


Apparently I'm not either. [laughing] I caught wind of this before it hit a Realtor and thought they were overpriced by about $100,000 so I passed. They hired a Realtor and got an extra $175,000 over what they wanted when they put the land out on bids. I think part of it was the total cost would have been my highest purchase to date by quite a bit so I was gunshy. Oh well, lesson learned.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 22, 2021, 11:45 AM Post
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
Jimbo said:

OK, my bad. I left out that moving to a rental would be needed to make it pay off. That is why she scoffed at the thought. Plus, we are most likely within ten years of retirement, which means selling anyways and retiring to our TBD forever-city.


Have you thought about just buying an RV? Cheaper than a home and you have more mobility. Stay in WI during the summer and then AZ or FL in the winter.

This is basically what I am thinking if I ever retire. Get an RV and just live everywhere in the US.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 22, 2021, 12:36 PM Post
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A friend of mine owns several Papa Murphy's pizza stores. They are early/mid-50s and "retired" to AZ a few years ago - still worked the store's finances from AZ during the winter. Just recently, they sold their summer home on a golf course ($1M+?) and live full time in an RV now - AZ in the winter, MN in the summers.


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 22, 2021, 12:52 PM Post
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LouisEly said:
Wondering what the Madison folks can tell me about the Madison housing market. I'll be moving (back) there sometime in the next six months, and just about everything I see is either pending or contingent. The only things I see that aren't under contract are either under construction or obviously do not need to sell and are listing a wishful price that would make it worthwhile to sell (as evidenced by the >150 days on the market). Not much even for rentals (and I have no desire to live in an apartment building downtown with a bunch of 20-something Epic employees). Ideally I'd like to be downtown because that's where the office is. There will likely be more inventory in a month or two when the weather gets better, but right now there is not much.

I don't think there will be much of a wave of foreclosures, at least not for ownership property. The industries that got crushed by the pandemic (travel/leisure, restaurants, retail, hospitality) have a relatively low percentage of jobs that can support ownership; most jobs in those industries are part-time or low-paying.


The market is absolutely nuts in and around Madison, the need for student housing and the explosion of the tech industry has caused a huge housing shortage - people keep buying up homes and renting them - and there's always push back when trying to build any sort of large apartment complexes to help alleviate the crunch.

Have two family members who looked for 6 months, one decided to just build a new house, the others are still looking and it's been nearly a year (they are waiting on the "right deal for the right place" They got an apartment in Waunakee instead of staying in the northwoods over the winter because places are up less than a few days usually. It's been that way for over a year now.

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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 22, 2021, 2:25 PM Post
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Baldkin said:
The market is absolutely nuts in and around Madison, the need for student housing and the explosion of the tech industry has caused a huge housing shortage - people keep buying up homes and renting them - and there's always push back when trying to build any sort of large apartment complexes to help alleviate the crunch.

Have two family members who looked for 6 months, one decided to just build a new house, the others are still looking and it's been nearly a year (they are waiting on the "right deal for the right place" They got an apartment in Waunakee instead of staying in the northwoods over the winter because places are up less than a few days usually. It's been that way for over a year now.


There are about 25 other 'hot' cities in the US that are going through the same thing as Madison and the story is always the same--huge pushback whenever any new development is proposed. Only a small percentage of demand gets met within city limits. Development ends up sprawling outward which puts additional pressure on highways/infrastructure to keep up. Lower quality of life for those that have to commute into the city (although COVID has reduced commuting which is a good thing).

At this point I think most people in urban planning recognize the downsides of restrictive zoning laws and more cities will follow the lead of Minneapolis in removing single-family zoning. I know I mentioned it earlier in the thread but I am now allowed to build 2 additional units on my lot in Seattle (although not everyone can do this, I'm allowed to because we are a block away from a bus route). My neighbor is putting a unit on top of their garage right now. So maybe that's how some of the housing pressure will get relieved in the long run. We looked into adding a unit but in the end we decided to put the renovation money into the master suite--not the best choice for ROI but certainly the best choice for our comfort.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 22, 2021, 8:03 PM Post
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Baldkin said:
The market is absolutely nuts in and around Madison, the need for student housing and the explosion of the tech industry has caused a huge housing shortage - people keep buying up homes and renting them - and there's always push back when trying to build any sort of large apartment complexes to help alleviate the crunch.

Have two family members who looked for 6 months, one decided to just build a new house, the others are still looking and it's been nearly a year (they are waiting on the "right deal for the right place" They got an apartment in Waunakee instead of staying in the northwoods over the winter because places are up less than a few days usually. It's been that way for over a year now.

When I was last in Madison (2012 to late 2015) they were in the midst of adding 5000 apartment units to the city. There certainly wasn't much pushback at that time; mid-rise apartments were going up all over downtown around campus.

From what I hear, there are plenty of apartment units available in the city but they overbuilt on small 1-bedrooms and there is a big demand for 2-bedrooms. But I am not looking to live in an apartment building with a bunch of 20-somethings. There hasn't been much building of ownership units in the city the last decade.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 23, 2021, 9:19 AM Post
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Location: Waukesha, WI
nate82 said:
Jimbo said:

OK, my bad. I left out that moving to a rental would be needed to make it pay off. That is why she scoffed at the thought. Plus, we are most likely within ten years of retirement, which means selling anyways and retiring to our TBD forever-city.


Have you thought about just buying an RV? Cheaper than a home and you have more mobility. Stay in WI during the summer and then AZ or FL in the winter.

This is basically what I am thinking if I ever retire. Get an RV and just live everywhere in the US.


Sounds enticing, but doesn't match my personality. I enjoy exploring new places, but eventually need to return to a home base.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 23, 2021, 11:16 AM Post
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Through my job I've known a few couples who managed to RV long-term, but it's very few. And a good-sized RV can be really expensive, too. And if you're thinking of camp-hosting in National Parks, get on that waiting list about 10 years in advance. I was told by a long-term RV couple that the key is to get a hobby or other regular activity and leave for good periods of the day.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 23, 2021, 11:22 AM Post
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Oof. I'm down 11% yesterday and -13% so far today. BNGO got downgraded and that cost me. And then Elon Musk opens his big mouth and says crypto is high-priced.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 23, 2021, 12:11 PM Post
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Oh yeah, I'm down over 25% on my crypto portfolio, but about break even for the week. Fun times.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 23, 2021, 6:03 PM Post
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Started buying some Redfin today in the mid $80s. Hoping for a dump on earnings tomorrow to add more. HODLing


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: February 24, 2021, 4:49 PM Post
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If you didn't ditch your GME, you made some money back today.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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