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The Investment Thread

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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 08, 2021, 2:55 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
Sounds like we're talking about the same basic thing. This is the video which refers to it and that similar past correction: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iTR-0ttU6k&t=181s

Though I'm kinda souring on that channel as it's a lot of "100x gains!" and "parabolic" and such. And I think largely he pushes whatever new crypto daily because he's already purchased it and his viewers will give it that little bump. I've considered buying whatever he says, taking that little bump and then selling the next day, but it requires buying stuff not for sale on Coinbase and storage gets more complicated off that site.

I have a blockchain ETF that I bought at the exact wrong time, and have the Grayscale etherium ETF, but I'll have to compare Grayscale to the regular Coinbase version, as I suspect some of crypto's gains are depressed a little in the Grayscale ETF.

Planning on holding onto Vale, a big nickel miner out of Brazil. Mostly waiting on them getting some big contract with an EV company. Despite them recently allowing a dam to break and kill people, they've also been putting a lot of money into environmental standards, and compared to other nickel miners they seem to be the most environmentally friendly miner to capture contracts from EV companies which also want to promote the environmental nature of their product.

But crypto otherwise seems to be a good choice if one buys into the idea of coming inflation and a market correction. That or buy the dip in Apple, I guess.


I've litterally never watched a Youtube video on Crypto investing. I don't think I will be changing that anytime soon. Here is a copy and paste of the best advice I have seen on Reddit:

Timing the market is very hard. Do your best to DCA and not worry about entry price.

If you're investing because you believe in the project, you should look to development milestones and your faith that they're achieved. That takes patience and time. If you're investing because you wish to short term trade and turn a profit, it's nearly impossible to have a good understanding of market swings because it often makes no sense on a week to week basis.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 11, 2021, 12:00 PM Post
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Grayscale has halted the sale of their bitcoin ETF because their shares are tracking at 15% below the value of actual Bitcoin. They haven't stopped their Ethereum yet but it's been about the same.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 29, 2021, 2:56 PM Post
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Just pulled everything out of Coinbase and will be switching to Binance, but will need a lot of Youtube videos to figure out how Binance works. It also double-deposited, so I'm glad I started with test money.

Really hesitate to move things around on Fidelity for my real stocks. I'm really just selling low, as they've mostly all lost the big gains they made from January. But with two more money giveaways along with a likely increase to the corporate tax, I'd like to move into something more recession-resilient or betting on the downward trend. Just what that'll be, I don't know yet.


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 29, 2021, 3:18 PM Post
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If you like risk then SPAK maybe something to look into. It is basically an ETF of new technology companies.

It is down right now but I think it will increase and should stabilize around $35-40.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 29, 2021, 7:49 PM Post
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GAME05 said:
Just pulled everything out of Coinbase and will be switching to Binance, but will need a lot of Youtube videos to figure out how Binance works. It also double-deposited, so I'm glad I started with test money.

Really hesitate to move things around on Fidelity for my real stocks. I'm really just selling low, as they've mostly all lost the big gains they made from January. But with two more money giveaways along with a likely increase to the corporate tax, I'd like to move into something more recession-resilient or betting on the downward trend. Just what that'll be, I don't know yet.


Why, what's wrong with Coinbase?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 30, 2021, 12:24 AM Post
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Who knew there was any Crypto chatter on this site. Big into Crypto!!!


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 30, 2021, 7:33 AM Post
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Coinbase fees are a little higher than Binance, mostly.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 30, 2021, 10:45 AM Post
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Weird binance took a test deposit I made a few days ago (which still doesn't show up in my bank account), but now bigger deposits of $1000 are all failing. Despite the higher fees I'm tempted to go back to Coinbase. It's WAY more user-friendly, anyway.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 30, 2021, 2:24 PM Post
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Are you using Coinbase Pro? The fees are very minimal and the interface is much better than Binance.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: March 30, 2021, 2:25 PM Post
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KCBrewerfan34 said:
Who knew there was any Crypto chatter on this site. Big into Crypto!!!


Yup, look back on this thread and you will see quite a few posts.

What are you holding? I've got a bit of BTC, but mostly ETH and IOTA.


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 1:00 PM Post
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COINBASE went public today. Currently trading around $330 a share. I am going to wait and see if it goes down to around $200. I think it is over valued where it is at now.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 1:31 PM Post
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I generally dislike crypto because the blockchain is such a terrible, energy wasting concept, but my $50 investment in dogecoin was briefly worth $160 so it's hard to complain about that. I understand that the value of everything in this world is somewhat arbitrary, but NFTs are such a late-stage capitalism creation that I can't even wrap my head around how pointless they are. But if there's money to be made, well...invest away I guess.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 2:20 PM Post
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nate82 said:
COINBASE went public today. Currently trading around $330 a share. I am going to wait and see if it goes down to around $200. I think it is over valued where it is at now.


Yeah I took a look this morning and they were talking $250 open. I passed.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 2:21 PM Post
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owbc said:
I generally dislike crypto because the blockchain is such a terrible, energy wasting concept, but my $50 investment in dogecoin was briefly worth $160 so it's hard to complain about that. I understand that the value of everything in this world is somewhat arbitrary, but NFTs are such a late-stage capitalism creation that I can't even wrap my head around how pointless they are. But if there's money to be made, well...invest away I guess.


FWIW, Ethereum 2.0 is supposed to cut energy consumption of its Blockchain by 99%

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 2:44 PM Post
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Coinbase has outrageous fees. A new broker or the SEC allowing crypto ETFs would really cut into Coinbase's market share. Only competitive advantage they seem to have right now is they're WAY easier to use, but that's not a particularly big barrier for someone else to cross. I won't be buying their IPO.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 3:53 PM Post
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I loathe crypto because it tried to argue it was the next great thing in tech without any actual use, and has now backtracked at best to accepting that its a pure electronic creation to be traded for the sake of trading. The pattern of moving goalposts around its existence is unsettling at best and when you uncover the older hacks to manipulate the blockchain part itself? So far hiding assets is the only understandable problem I've seen it solve, and if that's your problem well I'm not terribly sympathetic.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 4:10 PM Post
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I don't see the value in any of the coins themselves except Bitcoin
It can be used as a store of value similar to gold since there a limited number they can create.

Blockchain on the other hand has real world utility. Smart contracts are game changers.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Online  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 4:16 PM Post
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igor67 said:
I loathe crypto because it tried to argue it was the next great thing in tech without any actual use, and has now backtracked at best to accepting that its a pure electronic creation to be traded for the sake of trading. The pattern of moving goalposts around its existence is unsettling at best and when you uncover the older hacks to manipulate the blockchain part itself? So far hiding assets is the only understandable problem I've seen it solve, and if that's your problem well I'm not terribly sympathetic.


You keep on repeating these lies? Why?


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 14, 2021, 8:26 PM Post

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I am not sure those are lies. I tend to agree with him. Bitcoin will never be used for anything but a pretend currency and form of trading. Folks only buy it because it goes up. Nobody is buying it to spend it on groceries. They may someday sell their bitcoin , for USD and buy something. But nobody is ever going to spend it.


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Offline  Re: The Investment Thread
Posted: April 15, 2021, 5:30 AM Post
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I would actually be really interested if homer wanted to expand on what a smart contract was.
A link outlining a hack related to crypto
Chu, Dennis. “BROKER-DEALERS FOR VIRTUAL CURRENCY: REGULATING CRYPTOCURRENCY WALLETS AND EXCHANGES.” Columbia Law Review, vol. 118, no. 8, 2018, pp. 2323–2360. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26542511 p.(16)

and another
"One of the main flaws with cryptocurrencies can be attributed to the “blockchains” that they are built on. Whenever a new coin is “mined” or sold, it is subject to a review by the community of miners. In other words, whenever a transaction occurs, the other people involved with mining the currency are notified and decide whether the transaction was legitimate or not. This sort of community verification requires 51% of the community to approve a transaction for it to occur" quoted from "51% Attack Explained." Mycryptopedia. January 08, 2019. Accessed March 20, 2019. https://www.mycryptopedia.com/51-percen ... explained/.

and a 3rd one for good measure "Bitcoin Gold Hacked for $18 Million." Bitcoin News. May 24, 2018. Accessed March 20, 2019. https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-gold-h ... 8-million/

For some additional background I have both a low tolerance for risk, and a high threshold (generally) of evidence. On the investing side this usually means sticking to traditional investing principles (low fees and index funds go back to at least the mid 90's). I recognize that this particular combination has certain downsides, but given I don't have stacks of capital to be an angel investor I can live with that. My sentiments against cryptocurrencies though were rooted in the clear pattern of mid 2010's articles hyping in a very standard 'it will revolutionize', but not following through with a clear explanation of what was going to be solved. For some reference this was overlapping with the era when we were being told that Silicon Valley was also going to revolutionize education with MOOCs. We've all seen how well people actually like online education. At least those articles though were clear what was being proposed and sold. As a science generalist I read a wide diversity of secondary and primary sources across many disciplines (math, physics, chem, biology, and economics mostly), and I do not recall any of my range of sources ever jumping in and walking through how the blockchain was an important technology. That isn't 'proof' but it is enough for me to not want to waste time fully researching the topic myself. Particularly after one of my students (who was a huge crypto believer) did his thesis project a couple of years ago (those are his references above). From his abstract
"Then the history of cryptocurrencies’ rise from 2008-2018 is analyzed. This analysis explains why the cryptocurrency market came into being, rose, and fell in such short succession. It describes how the market was exploited through fraudulent practices such as “pump and dump schemes”, hacks, and faulty brokers. These problems with the market are then compared to problems that the U.S. stock market experienced in the 1970’s."

If the blockchain itself is going to be a significant technology going forward that would be interesting and as far as I can tell at the moment it would end up being a rather unique path for a legitimate technology to rise to utility.

Last thought the economics side of crypto are somewhat analogous to gold, which I also loathe as an investment. It is way too useful as a material to use purely as a trade device.


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