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Sports Betting

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Offline  Sports Betting
#1

Posted: January 12, 2018, 9:01 AM Post
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Hopefully it's ok to start a thread about betting on sports!

Anyone on here dabble in this trade? One of my favorite times of year to do a couple parlays is during the NFL playoffs. I only do a handful of bets a year, and always small dollar amounts, but it's fun for me.

Thought I'd start a thread where we could discuss sporting events that we might try to make more interesting.

Anyone have any strong thoughts on the NFL games this week?

ATL -2.5 vs PHI
TEN +13.5 vs NE
JAX +6.5 vs PIT
NO +4.5 vs MN


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#2

Posted: January 12, 2018, 9:05 AM Post
Posts: 3329
The under in Minnesota. [smile]

I think Atl and New England both cover. The other 2 I am staying away from.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#3

Posted: January 12, 2018, 9:10 AM Post
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I do think the Under for sure in MN, but I also think that MN is a good bet to cover. I think they are really dangerous.

I agree and think NE is going to make a statement in round one, so that game should be a blowout.

I'm nervous about that ATL PHI game. I'm not buying in that all the sudden ATL is ready to make a run at the super bowl after being pretty gross all year.

That JAX PIT game, I have no clue.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#4

Posted: January 12, 2018, 9:19 AM Post
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I would agree on Atlanta, but I don't trust Foles one bit. Philly D is tough, but again, Foles. If the line was around 6 or 7 I probably wouldn't touch it, but since its 2.5 I feel good that Atlanta can hit on that one.

BTW, I am up around 600 betting Wisconsin Basketball this year. Early in the year their lines were way off and even now they are getting a ton of favorable lines...for taking the opponent.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#5

Posted: January 12, 2018, 9:23 AM Post
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Interesting on WI! Thanks for the info.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#6

Posted: January 12, 2018, 9:24 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
Once we get deep into the season(playoffs included), I tend to bet against what the crowd is thinking on given games. New England is the exception, they are generally a surefire bet to cover. With a week off and Tennessee dinged up, I don't think they could set that line high enough for me to not want to bet it. I also especially like Philly in this game. Atlanta's biggest margin of victory outside a dome was 6 points, and that was week 1 against the Bears. They won plenty of outdoor games, but Philly is a better team than most prior competition. I'm thinking they have a good chance to lose, and if they win it will probably be by 3 or less points. Far more chances to win than lose.

Those 4 lines, I'd go New England, Philly, Pittsburgh, New Orleans. Picking Pittsburgh goes against my "don't take the obvious pick" rule, but how in the world can you bet on Bortles on the road in cold weather in the playoffs? That game feels like 23-3. I also agree with stoutdude, the under on the points spread for whatever the line ends up being on the Minnesota game is probably a good bet. Given I expect low scoring, I think it's wise to take the points. Also to take the better QB/Coach combo.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#7

Posted: January 12, 2018, 1:56 PM Post
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I have placed exactly one sports bet in my life...I put $50 against the Packers last month (+6.5 vs. Minnesota) when I was at the MGM in Vegas. That was the easiest ~$40 I ever won. At least the Packers were good for something this year.

I immediately blew the winnings on roulette.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#8

Posted: January 12, 2018, 6:24 PM Post
Posts: 3329
Haha. I enjoy betting because I get an excuse to look and dig deeper into stats, and I love stats.

A lot of the 'easy' money can be found in the lower levels of the NCAA. Everyone thinks they can bet the teams they are most familiar with, but that's typically wrong. I did pretty well betting the over whenever Wily pitched and have done well betting against Wisconsin this year, but I uaually don't do well betting baseball or betting badger games.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#9

Posted: January 13, 2018, 10:14 AM Post
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stoutdude04 said:
Haha. I enjoy betting because I get an excuse to look and dig deeper into stats, and I love stats.

A lot of the 'easy' money can be found in the lower levels of the NCAA. Everyone thinks they can bet the teams they are most familiar with, but that's typically wrong. I did pretty well betting the over whenever Wily pitched and have done well betting against Wisconsin this year, but I uaually don't do well betting baseball or betting badger games.


Mid-major college basketball has good value because most people prefer to wager on big name teams/games on TV. The bookies won't put as much as effort into analyzing the lesser interesting games.

Baseball is the most difficult due to all the variables that go into a game (lefty/righty starter, home field, bullpen availability, etc.)


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#10

Posted: January 13, 2018, 10:49 AM Post
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I used to bet sports, maybe $400 per week or so. I did a little better than 50% and the vig brought me back down to even. I always kept a spreadsheet on every penny I wagered. Once I did it long enough that breaking even was more a trend than an anomaly, I just stopped bothering.

Although my personal rule for betting on Wisconsin teams was that I would only ever bet on them to not cover. I didn't want homerism to get in the way of making a right decision.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#11

Posted: January 13, 2018, 10:57 AM Post
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GAME05 said:
I used to bet sports, maybe $400 per week or so. I did a little better than 50% and the vig brought me back down to even. I always kept a spreadsheet on every penny I wagered. Once I did it long enough that breaking even was more a trend than an anomaly, I just stopped bothering.

Although my personal rule for betting on Wisconsin teams was that I would only ever bet on them to not cover. I didn't want homerism to get in the way of making a right decision.



I think the trap a lot of people fall into is making bets just for the sake of making bets. And I get it - I do it all the time when I go to Vegas. I think if you want to beat the house you need to go large when you think you have the odds in your favor and stay out if you are just flipping a coin. Easier said than done obviously.

"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#12

Posted: January 16, 2018, 7:48 PM Post
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Another favorable line against the Badgers tonight.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#13

Posted: January 24, 2018, 10:23 PM Post
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I never bet NBA...but I see Houston plus 6.5 at Dallas. I think, okay, seems safe enough. Up 18 with 2 30 to play and win by 7...

Also...has anyone else been keeping an eye on these Badger lines? If the line is less than 15 against MSU I think it's a gimme.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#14

Posted: March 15, 2018, 1:39 PM Post
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Anyone got any easy money in the first round of the NCAA tournament?


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#15

Posted: March 15, 2018, 1:48 PM Post
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Thought kansas would be. Sweating it now.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#16

Posted: March 16, 2018, 9:42 AM Post
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Man, I'm not finding a lot I like for today!


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#17

Posted: March 16, 2018, 12:00 PM Post
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Yea, I went 3-1-1 yesterday. Took Witchita State and Cinci, but I think I took those just to put some in instead of lines I actually liked.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#18

Posted: January 21, 2019, 9:58 AM Post
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Thought I'd bump this for some Super Bowl Betting chat. My wife and I always like to do some Super Bowl props. We've had a lot of luck on the national anthem and coin toss over the years.

I see the line is Pats -3 and over under at 58.

We'll have to revisit, closer to the game.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#19

Posted: January 21, 2019, 10:59 AM Post
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Location: New Berlin, WI
I weirdly think the under is a very good bet here. The Rams front 4 will probably beat the Patriots o-line more often than not, which should neutralize the running game much moreso than against KC...and frankly you can't beat Brady if you need to rush more than 4 to get consistent pressure. So again, Rams front 4 could make this look like Patriots vs Giants in 2007. As for the Patriots defense, I think their complex schemes and Goff not being as good a QB lets the Patriots slow the Rams passing game down significantly. I think the key will be the Patriots stopping the run, CJ and Gurley have been quite the 1-2 punch. The Patriots also tend to struggle covering RB out of the backfield, you might see Gurley with a 7-8 catch day.

If I were to bet, I'd take the Rams +3 and the under. I would feel much better about the under than about the Rams though. Frankly, it's a close matchup and I'd simply prefer to grab the points if I had to pick. Also, I'd be all over Gurley if anybody does Draftkings/Fanduel.

Please take all this with a grain of salt, football is very secondary for me...I'm much more baseball.


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Offline  Re: Sports Betting
#20

Posted: January 21, 2019, 11:40 AM Post
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Location: Madison, WI
Tough lines to me. My gut right away went to Rams and the Over. So, most likely do the opposite, haha. But in a dome stadium I think the over should be a good bet. Gurley with 2 weeks off should be healthy. Really I'd probably stay away, but as OP said the fun often comes in the props with the SB anyway.


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