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Sports Betting

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Offline homer Re: Sports Betting
Posted: October 10, 2019, 1:51 PM Post
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I started following some betting guys on twitter and they all say betting games against the spread is a fool's errand. Betting halftime spreads, O/U, and futures is a better way to go (per them). Also, if you bet college it's best to focus on a small conference - so maybe the MAC for football or some goofy conference with Wofford and Elon in basketball. Reason being not as many handicappers follow those teams so if you have some good research and info you can find an edge.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Offline tmwiese55 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: October 10, 2019, 2:29 PM Post
Posts: 5539
Location: Madison, WI
Yea my most profitable area has been 1Hs for sure. Catching Unders due to weather situations is a good one too. But as long as you keep everything in reason and not at prices that you just shouldn't be betting and just view it as entertainment and just for fun then what's the harm. It's like anything else people do for fun, movies, dinners, shows, etc.

I also agree on small school stuff, when MACtion starts later this year I've done shockingly well over the years, one year was like 17 straight on those games and O/Us. I'd just look at both teams normal scores, do some simple math and a lot of times be shocked at the line being off a bunch, and it usually worked. I didn't bet at all last season though on anything, I wouldn't have started again if it not being legalized in Iowa.

NFL just seems impossible to me, so much attention on those lines it's tough to beat them, as you point out. I'm at 24-14 on any normal straight odds bet so far which is 63%. Take out NFL and I'm sure that would go up, hindsight I should've separated those in the data but at this point I'm basically going to quit NFL other than a few dollars on a parlay hoping to get lucky. I just don't enjoy watching NFL anyway.

ETA: Got Yanks at +320 for the WS last night. Great price, though of course I realize Houston is stacked.
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Offline homer Re: Sports Betting
Posted: October 13, 2019, 8:52 AM Post
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Anyone do daily fantasy football betting? Curious if you have any sites you use for research. I follow the Establish the Run guys on Twitter but their subscription site is pricey.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: February 13, 2020, 2:13 PM Post
Posts: 4200
Lost 2 games last night by a field goal made with like a second left. Lame.
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Offline DHonks Re: Sports Betting
Posted: February 13, 2020, 10:04 PM Post
Posts: 8384
I lost the heart-breaking Butler game. They missed covering by .5 despite leading all game. And on the last possession, they gave up 2 offensive boards leaving to a 3rd chance 3pointer. If only it was FT's or a 2, I would have covered.
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: February 14, 2020, 9:46 AM Post
Posts: 4200
DHonks said:
I lost the heart-breaking Butler game. They missed covering by .5 despite leading all game. And on the last possession, they gave up 2 offensive boards leaving to a 3rd chance 3pointer. If only it was FT's or a 2, I would have covered.


That was one of mine as well. Gross.
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Offline DHonks Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 01, 2020, 10:13 AM Post
Posts: 8384
I had another tough one last week. I had Utah St -20.5. They pushed it to a 23 point lead with under 30 secs left. No shot-clock, coaches already practically shaking hands, and the opponent shoots (and makes) a 3. I’ve been burned by that far more than I’ve been saved by a miracle,
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 01, 2020, 2:48 PM Post
Posts: 4200
DHonks said:
I had another tough one last week. I had Utah St -20.5. They pushed it to a 23 point lead with under 30 secs left. No shot-clock, coaches already practically shaking hands, and the opponent shoots (and makes) a 3. I’ve been burned by that far more than I’ve been saved by a miracle,


Ugh. That stinks. I've been doing a lot of 1st half lines and been doing well. My buddy follows some dude on covers and has been riding him to the tune of 11k over the last 3 weeks. In turn, I've been riding his bets lately.
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Offline RobDeer 45 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 02, 2020, 2:42 PM Post
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Dang 11k! That's impressive. I've been doing ok on college hoops but haven't gotten any of my parlays to hit, which is then eating away at my profits. I know I shouldn't be doing them, but it's too hard not to!
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 02, 2020, 3:52 PM Post
Posts: 4200
Our bookie has cut us off from 1st half bets. Anyone have a good online spot to use?
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Offline wallus Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 02, 2020, 9:37 PM Post
Posts: 2182
stoutdude04 said:
Our bookie has cut us off from 1st half bets. Anyone have a good online spot to use?


Is there no integrity in black market sports betting?
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 03, 2020, 11:46 AM Post
Posts: 4200
wallus said:
stoutdude04 said:
Our bookie has cut us off from 1st half bets. Anyone have a good online spot to use?


Is there no integrity in black market sports betting?


Only when they are winning I guess. [smile]
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Offline Frank Turner Fan Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 12, 2020, 9:46 AM Post
Posts: 72
Recently bet under on season win totals for Cards, Cubs, Reds and Pirates. Also Crew to win division and over win total. My question; if the season gets shortened because of coronovirus, did my first 4 bets get better?
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Offline stoutdude04 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 12, 2020, 10:06 AM Post
Posts: 4200
Frank Turner Fan said:
Recently bet under on season win totals for Cards, Cubs, Reds and Pirates. Also Crew to win division and over win total. My question; if the season gets shortened because of coronovirus, did my first 4 bets get better?


Depends where you did it. The bets might cancel.
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Offline tmwiese55 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 12, 2020, 10:12 AM Post
Posts: 5539
Location: Madison, WI
I'd also guess they cancel and will make new lines when this gets figured out.

I like your passion on the Brewers, might as well bet what you're rooting for.

Ones I've generally liked are Padres and Phillies unders. Possibly Giants over. Never pulled the trigger on any though so can wait this all out
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Offline Frank Turner Fan Re: Sports Betting
Posted: March 12, 2020, 5:29 PM Post
Posts: 72
While I believe they will void the bets, how is this different than a team only playing 161 games because of a rainout and being 1 win short of covering, or like 2 years ago what if the Brewers covered in their win total in game 163. I am sure those bets would not be cancelled. Additionally, Vegas makes its money by getting people to bet both sides of a spread. In that scenario, people who bet the early line lose. Vegas gets their "juice" if they don't cancel. They lose it if they cancel the bets. I hopefully think they will honor the bets as made.
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Offline RobDeer 45 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: February 26, 2021, 8:04 AM Post
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If you like betting college basketball, make sure you are following Greg Peterson @GUnit_81. He is unbelievable. Not only does he give a line for every NCAA D1 game, he is always helping people to better understand betting/handicapping. He also has a podcast every day. He does handicap MLB as well, but his sweet spot is NCAA hoops, in my opinion. Also, he's from WI. Give him a follow, you'll be happy you did.
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Offline homer Re: Sports Betting
Posted: February 26, 2021, 8:46 AM Post
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I'm not sure if all apps have this but for those that live in a state with legalized sports betting, the Points Bet app lets you cash out mid game. So lets say you bet $50 on a big underdog in college hoops and they have a 3 point lead in the 2nd half, the app will live update the cash out as the game goes along. So if the underdog scores a bucket and they go up 5 the payout goes to like $70 (depending on time remaining).

It's a good way to cut losses or, if you think your long shot has been playing over their head, lock in some profit. Darren Rovell did this during the B1G championship game. He had a longshot futures bet on Northwestern to win the B1G and cashed in at halftime when they had the lead.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Offline GAME05 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: February 26, 2021, 11:18 AM Post
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HiAndTight said:
Yeah, but do you do alright betting on "your," teams? Betting on teams you root for and are emotionally invested in? I've lost way more than I've ever won better on in-state teams. Especially the Packers.


When I used to bet it was always my position that I would only ever bet on the losing end for a favorite team. I figured that strategy removed the homerism. Somewhat evened-out the disappointment, too.
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Offline RobDeer 45 Re: Sports Betting
Posted: February 26, 2021, 11:25 AM Post
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I got in the habit of betting against the Brewers, Badgers, and Packers in really big games. I would bet more than I usually would on a single game. If I won my bet, it softened how terrible I felt from my team losing. If I lost the bet I didn’t care because I was so happy about the win.
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